Modeling in Coexistence with Data: Toward a Generic Notion of Space

Vahid Moosavi

Modeling in Coexistence with DataToward a Generic Notion of Space

First PartModeling in Coexistence with Data, (the conceptual story line of this talk)

Second PartToward a Generic Notion of Space ( three applications around the notion of space)

The Classical Modeling Process and the Role of Data(A set theoretical notion of a model)

Abstract(Universals(

Data$

Modeling$Process$ Final$Model$(Ideals )

Abstract Universals and Rational Modeling

Here, “Circle-ness” as an Ideal form is assumed.Then, each observation is a “circle”.Or each observation is a “circle” with specific “radius”.

Rational Modeling and Modern Analysis based on the

Idealized dictionariesO

bser

ved

Mod

elFourier Decomposition

Urban Modeling and Idealization

Space SyntaxAgent Based Modeling

System Dynamics

This approach of modeling reaches to a theoretical limit in complex systems...

The Secondary role of the data in the classical modeling and simulation:•First we establish a dictionary and a grammar of the real phenomena based on a set of ideal conditions.•Then we tune the model with the

Abstract(Universals(

Data$

Modeling$Process$ Final$Model$

What if instead of given

dictionaries and ideals, we learn

them in a Coexistence

withUrban Data Streams?

An Alternative Approach

We need a conceptual inversion in the role of data in the modeling process

Concrete(Universals(

Unstructured*Data* Modeling*Process* Final*Model*

Modeling in Co-existence with DataBeyond the notion of error and the ideal form

Second part: Toward a generic notion of space

Given Dictionary of Forms

Learned Dictionary of Forms

Self Organizing Map (SOM)

(As a Generic Space, where closer items are more similar to each other)

CAAD 2010Benjamin Dillenburger

The interplay between two different spaces

The interplay between two different spaces

Ludger Hovestadt, Vahid Moosavi, Mathias Standfest 2012

First Application

Urban Air Pollution Modeling

Urban Air Pollution Modeling

Vahid Moosavi, Gideon Aschwanden, Erik Velasco 2014

Urban Air Pollution Modeling

Vahid Moosavi, Gideon Aschwanden, Erik Velasco 2014

Urban Information +

few measurements

Urban Air Pollution Modeling

Learning a dictionaryA new space based on similarity of urban parameters

Urban Air Pollution Modeling

Learning a dictionary Estimating the air pollution level with different confidence levels with only 3% direct measurement

Urban Air Pollution Modeling

Locating the monitoring stations

Second Application

Modeling the Dynamics of Real Estate Market

Modeling the Dynamics of Real Estate Market

First  Law  of  Geography  (FLG)Waldo Tobler :"Everything is related to everything else, but near things are more related than distant things”

Basics  of  Spa7al  Modeling

Q: But near in which space and based on which similarity and relatedness?

Idea: Is there a way to reach to a generic notion of space which is based on any

similarity of interest?

Modeling the Dynamics of Real Estate Market

Monthly Median Price per sq.ft of sold houses of each Zip code in the state of

Florida

Modeling the Dynamics of Real Estate Market

The topology of this dynamic

It seems there should be some patterns

Modeling the Dynamics of Real Estate Market

But not necessarily a spatial pattern

How about the FLG?

It is like a jigsaw puzzle

From 2002

To 2015But not just one, several

puzzles at once

Modeling the Dynamics of Real Estate Market

SOM$

Learning a temporal dictionary

Modeling the Dynamics of Real Estate Market

From a spatial image of the marketwith random pixels

To another image of market that follows FLG?

SOM$

Modeling the Dynamics of Real Estate Market

An Image of the market

Median price of a all the zip codes in Florida from 2002-2015

Modeling the Dynamics of Real Estate MarketTwo notions of space

Modeling the Dynamics of Real Estate MarketPredicting 6 months ahead priceUsing the same prediction methodOnly different neighbors

Most of the times, we get better results with looking to the new space!

Modeling the Dynamics of Real Estate Market

Two notions of space

Geo Space

SOM Space

Modeling the Dynamics of Real Estate MarketSpatial Distribution of Error

Third Application

Contextual MappingOr how to be able to create personalized images of the space?

Cities are complex and multi-facetedHow to look at a city with huge amount of digital data?

Is it possible that instead of a top-down map, we provide a simple mapping process?

“Toward personalized images of space”

Age + Health

Method: Learn a one dimensional dictionary and take its elements as an ordered set of numbers.

Age + Health

Levels of Education + Health

Distance travel to work

Crime Categories

Contextual MappingRacial Mixture in New York City?

Contextual MappingRedistricting and the will of the people

How polarized is Colorado in different elections?Is there any bottom up approach to define the electoral borders?

thank YOU

•Abstraction dis-solves the current problem and transcends to a new world with new kind of challenges.

•Generalization opens up or keeps the discussions in the same world that the problem exists.