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The dynamics of a social convention
Raquel Rosés
Richard Janis Goldschmidt
Matteo Ottaviani
Matteo Manca
Pablo Aragón
Tutor: Andrea Baronchelli
1
Our social convention
Bitcoin The most popular cryptocurrency
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Our motivation
• How do price and attention feed each other?
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Our motivation
• How do price and attention feed each other?
• How can we use attention to make money with Bitcoin?
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Our approach
At time unit t (week) if:
If Δn(t, Δt) > 0
Sell at n(t+1)
Buy at n(t+2)
Else
Buy at n(t+1)
Sell at n(t+2)
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Our results
6
time (week)
Our results using demographics
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time (week)
So, we have learnt that…
• Data-driven speculative behaviour is as bad as data-driven research is
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So, we have learnt that…
• Data-driven speculative behaviour is as bad as data-driven research is
• We wanted to make money and now we are poor…
9
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