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This presentation is a look at emerging trends in enterprise software, social software and general software business models that have emerged or accelerated because of the 2008 financial crisis and recession.
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8-09 © 2009 IDC Copyright 2008 IDC
Michael Fauscette, Group Vice President, SBS
8-09 © 2009 IDC
Where We Stand
2
Crisis – Impact where’s the bottom?
How / when do we recover? Fundamental changes
Consumption models Structural change Innovation
8-09 © 2009 IDC Copyright 2009 IDC. Reproduction is forbidden unless authorized. All rights reserved.
SW Applications Forecast Changes
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
2008 (Early) 2008 (Dec) 2009 (Jan) 2009 (May)
8-09 © 2009 IDC
An Economic Unknown
4
$1-3 Trillion For Bank Bailouts Tax Cuts Smart Grid SMB Incentives Health Care Infrastructure Broadband Auto Manufacturers Green Building
8-09 © 2009 IDC
Software Megatrends Structural Changes Accelerated by the Financial Crisis
Consumption Models E
mer
ging
Im
pera
tives
Architecture
Sourcing a Process
Targets
8-09 © 2009 IDC
Software Megatrends Structural Changes Accelerated by the Financial Crisis
Consumption Models
Software as a Service / Cloud Applications
Open Source Software
8-09 © 2009 IDC Copyright 2009 IDC. Reproduction is forbidden unless authorized. All rights reserved.
SaaS forecast comparison
$M
• IDC has increased its SaaS growth projection for 2009 from 36% growth to 42% growth over 2008.
• The percentage of U.S. firms which plan to spend at least 25% of their IT budgets on SaaS applications will increase from 23% in 2008 to nearly 45% in 2010.
Source: Economic Crisis Response: Worldwide Software as a Service Forecast Update (IDC #215504, January 2009)
8-09 © 2009 IDC
OSS Forecast
Source: Worldwide Open Source Software Forecast 2009 – 2013, July 2009
8-09 © 2009 IDC
Software Megatrends Structural Changes Accelerated by the Financial Crisis
Em
ergi
ng
Impe
rativ
es
Social Software Solutions The Next Gen Web
8-09 © 2009 IDC
The Social Enterprise
It’s not just “tools”, it’s changing processes
and culture
Democratization and Empowerment:
Spreading control across a broad audience, adding value, building relationships, conversations and
increasing transparency
8-09 © 2009 IDC
The Social Enterprise
Internal
External
Sales – Marketing – Product – Support - Service
Blogs – Communities – Social Networks - Ideasourcing – Microblogs – Syndication – Virtual Conference - Video
Wiki’s – Social Analytics – Collaboration – Mashups – Platforms -
8-09 © 2009 IDC
Social Software Solutions
Consumer Apps CRM Content
Apps
Online Community Platforms
Enablers Wiki Blogs +traditional Collab
Collab
Ideasourcing Social Customer Service Social SFA (predictive selling) Brand Monitoring / building
Wiki Blogs Ideasourcing
Social Analytics
8-09 © 2009 IDC
Social Software Solutions Vendors
Consumer Apps CRM Content
Apps
Online Community Platforms
Facebook LinkedIn MySpace Twitter Google Apps
SocialText Lotus Connections Sharepoint Jive Google Apps
Collab
Concursive UserVoice Oracle Sales Prospector Bright Idea Omniture
Google Apps Cisco Eos Reality Digital MyLife OneRiot Wink
Social Analytics
8-09 © 2009 IDC
The Next Gen Web
Static Web
Social Web
Transaction Web
Semantic Web
Web 1.0 Web 1.5 Web 2.0 Web 3.0
?
8-09 © 2009 IDC
The Next Gen Web
? Real-time Mobile Ubiquitous access Built for Web communication Decentralized Modular / reusable Increasing interconnectedness
8-09 © 2009 IDC
With Video….
Trust Connection Visual instincts
8-09 © 2009 IDC
Software Megatrends Structural Changes Accelerated by the Financial Crisis
Architecture
Service Oriented Architecture (SOA)
Event Based Architecture Unified Access to Content and Data
8-09 © 2009 IDC
Software Megatrends Structural Changes Accelerated by the Financial Crisis
Sourcing a Process
Build: Mashup, Process Modeling, Business Rules Buy: “Good Enough” v. “Best of Breed”
Outsource
8-09 © 2009 IDC
Software Megatrends Structural Changes Accelerated by the Financial Crisis
Targets
SMB’s Channels Partner to Partner
8-09 © 2009 IDC
Consolidation
Enter the Mega-ecosystem
Partners Coalesce Around Epicenters
Partner Consolidation
Hybrid Business Models
8-09 © 2009 IDC
The New Landscape of Tech
Mega Vendor
Acquisition Targets
Survivors
Start ups
HP, IBM, Microsoft, Oracle (Post Sun), Cisco, Intel, Google, Apple
1. Large >$1B, 2. vertical ISV’s, 3. Discontinuous innovators
Niche Markets, Redundant Portfolio, Too Unique
Discontinuous Innovators: future acquisition targets
8-09 © 2009 IDC © 2008 IDC
Michael Fauscette mfauscette@idc.com Twitter: @mfauscette Blog: www.mfauscette.com
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