Training module on vulnerability assessment (II)

Vulnerability concepts&

Exercise

Dr. Takeshi Takamatakeshi.takama@sei-international.org

Vulnerability concepts

VA on rice in Bali

Exercise

Today’s story

VULNERABILITY CONCEPTS

Climate related disasters

Disaster = Exposure

≠ Vulnerability

Exposure

Impact

Sensitivity

Adaptative Capacity

Vulnerability to climate change

Outcome Vulnerability Contextual Vulnerability

hazard

Identify issues, context, purpose, system

Vulnerability Concepts 2

Exposure

Impact

Sensitivity

Adaptive Capacity

Vulnerability to climate change

hazard

Vulnerability Concept

Vulnerability Assessment

Maps

- -

Exposure

Sensitivity

Adaptive Capacity

VULNERABILITY AND PADDY PRODUCTION

Max Temp. Min Temp.

~2℃Climate change in Bali

(SRES A2 2046-65)

e.g. “Develop drought early warning system” in National

Action Plan 2007

e.g. “impact study of climate change to the agriculture” in ICCSR 2009 & National Action Plan 2007

Climate Change impacts in Indonesia:Based in 10 policy reports incl. RPJMN, ICCSR, NARASI

Adaptation measures: 1. Agriculture = 232. Water = 203. Coastal zone = 15 4. Forestry = 125. Health = 11

Climate Change Strategies ProjectSub-pro: Vulnerability assessment

KLH, 2010. Indonesia 2nd National Communication (UNFCCC).

22% of rice production in Bali/East Java

Short wet season

Important & vulnerable?

VULNERABILITY AND PADDY PRODUCTION

Historical rice production in Bali

Year

Paddy Harvested area (ha)

Production rate (quintal/ha) Production (ton)

2000 155,049 53.33 826,8382001 147,942 53.35 789,2322002 148,025 54.70 809,6882003 145,294 54.60 793,2602004 142,663 55.00 788,3612005 141,577 55.00 785,4812006 150,557 56.00 840,8912007 145,030 58.00 839,7752008 143,999 58.37 840,465

7%Not sure

Paddy area X productivity = ?

8%

Soil-climate suitability for paddy

Soil-climate Suitability by 20% in 20 years

= productivity?

Paddy soil-climate suitability 1990-1999 Paddy soil-climate suitability 2000-2009

20 %

“we never fail rice for 20 years”

“Not enough water, only 1 harvesting”

“20% became housing”

“always have enough

water”

“not enough water , so need

to rotate rice and crop ”

Conclusion: Rice production decline?

SENSITIVITY

Green is paddy

Paddy soil-climate suitability 1990-1999 Paddy soil-climate suitability 2000-2009

Suitability/Rain (Exposure⇧)

If there is Paddy

Production loss（ Vulnerability⇧）

ADAPTIVE CAPACITY

Agricultural training = 4kg

cooperative = 5kg

2 cycle paddy production = 9kg

Average low productive

farmer = 35kg

Agricultural training = 4kg

With Infari 13 seed = 6kg

Average low productive

farmer = 35kg

Totally ~ 53 kg/acre Totally ~ 45 kg/acre

Different production levels with different factors

12%

19%

15%

27%

2 cycle0.27

Lowland0.26

Organic&Inorga

nic0.26

Infari 130.19

In-organic

0.17

Cooperative0.15

Training0.12

Owner0.09

Potential weighting factors for adaptive capacity

Stronger

tons/ha In-&organic = 4.45Inorganic = 2.51(Increasing 77.3%)

In-&organic = 5.28Inorganic = 3.52(increasing 50%)

enhanced by 21% and 24%

Resource IPB BPTP/South Sulawesi Nanjing Agricultural UniYear 2008-2009 2004 1987-2005Place Bogor Buru Island (Maluku) Tai Lake Region, China

VULNERABILITY MAPS

Exposure

Vulnerability decrease as northern/eastern part get drier

Sensitivity

AC in livelihood zones

Adaptive Capacity

Vulnerability in

20 years

VULNERABILITY MATRIX

1. Select units affected2. Select disasters3. Rank them 4. Choose 3 units

Scaling the impact on exposure units3 = significant impact on the exposure unit2 = medium impact on the exposure unit1 = low impact on the exposure unit0 = no impact on the exposure unit

Exposure unit

ecosystem

activities

livelihood

Ecosystem service

Soil water balance

Water supply

Grazing and fodder

Livelihood

Smallholder farmers

Emerging farmers

Market traders

Terminologies

Farming land

Fishery

Water

Drought

Heavy rain

Floods

Potential disasters

Exposure units1. Ecosystem

services2. Livelihood

activates3. Livelihood

Thank you very much!Dr. Takeshi Takama

Risky without proper variety selection.

Risky without proper timing.

Abnormal climate (El Nino)

Delayed wet-season

Drier dry-season

NAYLOR, R.L., BATTISTI, D.S., VIMONT, D.J., FALCON, W.P. and BURKE, M.B., 2007. Assessing risks of climate variability and climate change for Indonesian rice agriculture

1 month delay in wet season decrease by: 6.5% for West/Central Java &11% for East Java and Bali.

11%In Bali

NAYLOR, R.L., BATTISTI, D.S., VIMONT, D.J., FALCON, W.P. and BURKE, M.B., 2007. Assessing risks of climate variability and climate change for Indonesian rice agriculture

20% drop in rainfall in April-June reduces planting area for East Java and Bali by only 2%.

2%In Bali

Delayed wet-season

Drier dry-season

Temporal sensitivity

Less

More

Need to focus

two.cycle lowland infari only.in-organic

coopera-tive

agritrain owner

Most pro-duc-tive

0.7142857142857

14

1 0.2285714285714

29

0.1142857142857

14

0.5142857142857

14

0.9142857142857

14

0.6285714285714

29

Least pro-duc-tive

0.0689655172413

793

0.2413793103448

28

0 0 0 0.4827586206896

55

0.3448275862068

97

5.00%15.00%25.00%35.00%45.00%55.00%65.00%75.00%85.00%95.00%

5 most and 5 least productive villages

Rice production in IndonesiaDec - Mar

May - JulySep - Nov

WetDry

Production x 2 in 30 years

Slow down in production

Population 300M in 2045

Food security

5K Kms & 18K islands

230M people

Agro, Touris

m, Fissile

Fast grow

Indonesia

Diverse, varia-

ble

Big emerg-

ing

Climate relate

Vulne-rable?