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Presentation delivered by Prof. Dr. Derk Loorbach for URBACT Training for Elected Representatives on Integrated and Sustainable Urban Development. Seminar 3 (2-4 December 2013, Brussels, Belgium): Sustainability and change. How can cities tackle the challenges of climate change and assess their progress? And how to intervene in complex energy transitions while improving a city's quality of life? Read more: http://urbact.eu/en/news-and-events/urbact-events/training-for-elected-representatives/
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Transitions to Sustainabilityand the role of policy
Prof. Dr. Derk LoorbachBrussels, 03-12-2013
DRIFT
• Dutch Research Institute For Transitions, Rotterdam with 18 action researchers
• Established 2004 as part of the national transition research program KSI
• Action/activist research institute; (international) fundamental and applied research, consultancy, academic/postgraduate education
• STRN: 600+ members globally
11-04-2023 Afvalwaterketen - fabrieken
Program of this session
• Introduction to sustainability transitions and transition management
• Examples of urban transition management
• Group exercises: building blocks for transition
• Synthesis: the transition narrative
SUSTAINABILITY TRANSITIONS?
Persistent unsustainability
• Current socio-economic systems are inherently unsustainable– Economically, ecologically and socially
• But they are also heavily path-dependent– Locked in technologically, economically and culturally
• Incremental improvement is not enough and CO2 is only one of the problems– Sub-optimization often only strengthens lock-in
Systemic destabilisation
• The foundations underlying historical modernization are at the end of their life-cycle– Growth, efficiency, specialisation, optimisation
• Unpredictable and shockwise change seems inevitable– Just like in historical transitions
• Current crises are symptoms of non-linear systemic shifts happening– We need to consider these as windows of opportunity for major
change towards sustainability
Symptoms of destabilisation
Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
Transitions Long-term (one or two generations) fundamental change of
structure, culture and practices in a societal (sub)system
– culture: collective set of values, norms, perspectives (shared orientation), paradigms
– structure: physical infrastructure, economic infrastructure, institutions, rules, regulations, collective routines
– practices: behaviour, operation, implementation
Periodic, non-linear systemic shift common in ecological and socio-economic systems
Paradigm to analyse and influence complex societal change
Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
Transition levelsMacro-level: landscapeautonomous trends, paradigms, slow changes
Meso-level: regimeDominant structure, culture and practices
Micro-level: niches innovative ideas, projects, technologies, niche actorsBased on Geels and Kemp, 2001
Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
Transition phases
predevelopmenttipping phase
reconfiguration
stabilisation
Based on Rotmans et al, 2001
Sustainable Society?
enhanced lock-in
decline
Time
Evolutionary revolutions
• Revolution at systems level on the long term• Evolution on the short-term: multiple and
reinforcing small steps
Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
Characteristics of transitions
• Inherent uncertainties and unpredictability– Wicked or unstructured problems
• Emergence, co-evolution and self-organisation– As typical dynamics underlying systems change
• Unmanageable, ambiguous and contested– They are mainly about behavioral, institutional, cultural change
• Transitions most likely do not automatically lead to sustainability– It is about the process of sustainable development rather than the
end goal
GOVERNANCE OF TRANSITIONS
Transition governance principles
• long-term thinking as the basis for short term policy
• thinking in terms of multiple domains (multi-domain), different actors (multi-actor), different levels (multi-level)
• learning as an important aim for policy (‘learning-by-doing’ and ‘doing-by-learning’)
• orient governance towards system innovation besides system improvement
• keeping options open, exploring multiple pathways
• selective participation focusing on frontrunners
Transition Governance Framework
Monitoring, evaluating
and learning
Institutional and
structural changes,
new networks/ coalitions
Breakthrough actions, projects and initiatives,
new organisations
Problem structuring, shared sense of urgency,
guiding visions
Transitions…
Are not…
• Manageable
• Makeable
• Engineerable
• Predictable
Can be…
• Anticipated
• Influenced
• Guided
• Accelerated
society
Transition arenasRegular arenas
- Short term- Peloton - Incremental change- Problem- and goal oriented
- Long term- Frontrunners - System-innovation- Problem- and goal searching
Transition arenas
Transition Management Framework
Monitoring, evaluating
and learning
Developing images
coalitions and
transition-agendas
Mobilizing actors and executing projects and
experiments
establishment of transition arenas, shared problem definitions and
visions
Transition Networks
Transition Experiments
Transition Arena
Phase IIIFraming the transition
Phase IVEnvisioning a sustainable city
Phase VReconnecting long term & short term
Phase VI
Going into action
Transition Team
Phase ISetting the scene
Phase IIExploring dynamics Phase VII
Engaging & anchoring
Tools
SCENE patterns actor analysisproblem analysis
TRANSCEreflexive
monitoring
monitoringframeworktrans. indicators
MLP
DBUDeepening, broadening, upscaling
transitioning
actor selection
expert-arena
system analysis
arena
agendaexperiments
evaluation
TM multiple participatory tools
EXAMPLES
Aberdeen
Ghent
Montreuil
Rotterdam
Ludwigsburg
Mitigation in Urban Areas, Solutions for Innovative Cities
5 local governments search for pathways to a low carbon future
Supported by two knowledge institutions: CRP Henri Tudor (LUX), DRIFT (NL)
• Ghent, great place to live
• Locally creating added value
• Energetic city, intelligent cycles
• Ghentenaar home in the city
Transition arena Ghent (Belgium)
20 cultural organizations
> 100.000 visitors
TransitionUniversity
Ghent
Researchbiogas from
biodegr.
Mobility arena
938 mobbers
Support for SMEs
Climate arena Ghent (Belgium)
Inspiration to political parties
CWG Urban Farming
CWG Energy Efficiency in business
CWG Valorisation waste water and biodegradablesCWG Art Sector
KWG mobiliteit
CWG consumer pusher market
KWG UGent
Assessment of potential forESCO’s
CEIP meets GMS
Old industrial harbor development
• Transition arena developing sustainability vision and ambition– Shared discourse and break away from old paradigm
• Strategic agenda with 5 sustainability pathways– Orientation for experiments and open invitation to
participate
• Experimental development strategy– Learning-by-doing and evolving practice
One of the images: Floating City(Design: www.deltasync.nl)
Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
…the transition experiment
Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
Resilient neighbourhoods
Strategic
Organisational
Practical
Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
EMERGING TRANSITION PATTERNS
Tipping points
11-04-2023
Blurring boundaries
Old structures of modernization era
eroding from within through cross-domain
networks of actors across food, energy,
water, social services, and economy.
11-04-2023
Power shifts
11-04-2023
Emergence
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Economic transition
Transition in roles
Transition Management
GROUP EXERCISE
What is the (persistent) problem?
• Understanding current transition dynamics
• Identifying transition potential
• Identifying change agents
• Creating space and mindset for reflexive experimentation
What is a sustainable city?
• Sustainably powered
• Clean mobility
• Vital circular economy
• Adaptive and green
• …?
Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
Transition pathways
Based on Rotmans et al, 2001
Time
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Backcasting exercise
1. Formulate an inspiring ambitious target
2. Reason backwards: what needs to changeIn 5 year intervals
3. Include suprises and breakthroughs
4. Make three suggestions for action
Thank you for your attention
For more information and publications:loorbach@drift.eur.nlwww.drift.eur.nlwww.transitionsnetwork.orgwww.twitter.com/drk75
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