WebCongress US 2013 why does superman wear his underwear outside his pants?. Tech adoption, trends...

WebCongress

ed fernandez @efernandez

US edition, Miami

Who am I 3 generations journey

ed: Mobile computing platforms

ed Gf: Energy, utilities Infrastructure

ed Jr: Hyperconnecting people&things

to singularity

smartphones

electricity

Why Does Superman Wear His Underwear Outside His Pants?

A) Express & Signify masculine strenght B) Aesthetics, emphasize human figure definition C) Printing techniques for comics last century

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/quora/why-does-superman-wear-re_b_2132374.html

from events & data (knowing) forming patterns (understanding) to predictions

Any fool can know

The point is to understand

and, beyond understanding, predict

Einstein

Patterns State of the art in Tech:

KPCB internet trends. Mary Meeker & Liang Wu.

Asymco. Horace Dediu

Why this is happening: Everet Rogers. Diffussion of innovations

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Everett_Rogers

Why is it important to people? Richard Dawkins. Selfish gene

& references

& why are we here?

Internet

“The internet makes human desires more easily attainable, it offers convenience”

“Convenience on the internet is basically achieved by two things: speed & cognitive ease” http://www.wired.com/business/2013/09/ev-williams-xoxo/

Ev Williams. Twitter co-founder

the mighty engine for convenience

every

traditional business

has a

digital bullet with

its name engraved

Internet: where are we?

Internet: where are we?

7,1B

World Population

2,67B Internet users*

200M

Internet adds this

year

1,1B Internet

adds 2008-2013

34% Internet

penetration

China India Indonesia Russia Philippines Brazil Mexico Argentina Colombia

Growth driven by emerging markets *End 2013 estimated on YoY growth rate of 8%. Source: UN/ITU, internetworldstats.com 2012

Source: ProgrammableWeb. @johnmusser

Apps & Devices everywhere

Source: ProgrammableWeb. @johnmusser

Source: ProgrammableWeb. @johnmusser

Source: ProgrammableWeb. @johnmusser

Mobile Trends:

a brave new world

Internet becoming

Mobile First

Post

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[ Post PC era ]

New computing cycles

Technology evolution Laws

Computing capacity Moore’s Law Computing power doubles every 18-24 months

Price cuts in half

Bandwidth capacity Gilder’s & Nielsen’s Law Doubles every 2 years - wired

Doubles every 2.5 years - wireless (Cooper’s Law)

Digital storage capacity Kryder’s Law Doubles every 2 years.

Wireless Smaller Powerful Cheaper

Smartphone adoption

World is here

not even half way

… Platforms Platforms

f r a g m e n t a t i o n

Complexity of mobile phone market mobile phone market share doesn’t tell the full story

Source: VisionMobile

Operating systems

Over the next two years, innovation in user experiences comes from new software platforms.

legacy frameworks, current operating systems, struggle to deliver disruptive innovation.

Potential innovators include BlackBerry OS 10, Firefox OS and Tizen.

Established players will selectively implement elements, but fail to gain the slick integration of the originals.

CCS insights. Predictions for 2013 and beyond

the TIC TAC TOE mobile strategy

Hardware OS Cloud

Google

Motorola

Nokia

Microsoft

Apple

RIM

2000

Hardware OS Cloud

Google

Motorola

Nokia

Microsoft

Apple

RIM

2007

Hardware OS Cloud

Google

Motorola

Nokia

Microsoft

Apple

BlackBerry

2012 The year of the fruit

People motivations are changing?

1943 - Maslow 2013 - ?!?

Online & Offline

boundaries blurring

People:

• New paths in Maslow’s pyramid

• ‘truth’ is a tweet, photo or video clicked & sent away

• New definitions of ‘success’: money may not be in

• Access to luxury more important than owning luxury – Rise of sharing economy

• Self-realization and self-actualization online

• (Win)^3: You help me, I help you, we help others

• Klout score in your resume

• Managing man-machine symbiosis, key competencies.

• Global network, global thinking, global objectives. A collective intelligence arising (Singularity)

new generation of social entrepreneurs

Entrepreneurship

People: new generations Reduced sense of security since 2001 terrorists attacks

Destabilized economy since Global Financial crisis 2008

High unemployment levels – ‘Evil’ corporations

Increasing perceived fiscal pressure – self sustain or live out of the system

Pervasive & cheap computing everywhere

Tech-entrepreneur heroes – Dorsey, Zuckenberg, Larry, Sergey

All tools you need in the web: crowdfunding yourself (kickstarter)

reduced loss of aversion (nothing to lose) fostering self driven -entrepreneurship (most benefitial path in given conditions)

M

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Mary

Meeker

http

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Arguably the worst recession,

Undoubtely the biggest technology opportunity ever

…

What should we do?

1. Engage in POLITICS ?!?

2. EDUCATE (help next gen understand)

3. DO vs WATCH (create, innovate, act)

• ed fernandez @efernandez

• efernandez@blackberry.com