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We are all working harder and harder, and many of us have reached our limit. Giving us a faster more powerful laptop might make a marginal gain, and faster broadband complemented by smarter search engines might add a few more percentage points to our productivity, but the big ITC gains have been won. We have become the limiters of work output and not our technology. The technology now waits for us and not the other way around.To make the next leap in productivity and creativity we need help – specifically, we need machine help! Men and women alike need a third intelligence – a new way of thinking – a new perspective – and a new route to problem solving and creativity. So where will it com from, or in other words, why is my laptop, PC, Pad, Tablet so dumb?Even with Moore's Law continuing at it's present rate or accelerating, true machine intelligence will remain largely embedded in our networks. The good news is; it will soon be available as a commercial service in The Cloud. Much later, it is likely to appear in our devices to perform specific tasks related to our work, health, life and leasure. In both cases the primary key is sensors, sensor networks, and adaptability of software and hardware.
Citation preview
Peter Cochrane
COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s
ca-global.org
Why isn’t
my laptop
Intelligent?
cochrane.org.uk
Friday, 16 March 12
It has an abundance of: - processing power
- memory
- RAM
- network access
- WWW information
Friday, 16 March 12
But it acts dumb and doesn’t:
- learn my habits
- anticipate my needs
- correct my errors
- learn from mistakes
- monitor me and my life
Friday, 16 March 12
But why even as the question ?
Friday, 16 March 12
We cannot work any faster or any harder - we have reached the end of the line ?
Friday, 16 March 12
We a r e n o w t h e ultimate limiter and slow down mechanism in a networked world we have created ?
Friday, 16 March 12
38,700,000
14,600,000
Not all that helpful !
Friday, 16 March 12
Muscle amplifier
Brain amplifier
Intellect amplifier
Friday, 16 March 12
We face a tide complexity, non-linearity & chaos... and biologically we are not going to get any smarter...
Friday, 16 March 12
We have no general math or theoretical framework to fall back on...
...that can cope with the problems we face
Friday, 16 March 12
And we live at a time of greater achievement and creativity than any other...
...at no time in the past has humanity discovered, understood or created so much...
Friday, 16 March 12
Just a
selection
of things
small
we really
don’t understand
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In order to move on w e n e e d a n e w approach...
...help from new intelligences that see the world from a different perspective...
Friday, 16 March 12
Old systems & methods are extremely unlikely to be able to help...or cope with the demands and changes to come...
Friday, 16 March 12
During the reformation ever yth ing became stove-piped... initially t h i s b rough t huge benefit, but it is now a major inhibitor...
...there is only science...
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So what is the state of p lay with Ar t ific ia l Intelligence today...
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And are machines re a l l y c ap ab l e o f creativity...
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IBM - Deep Blue 1972
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NASA Planetary Walker - 2002
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M a c h i n e s that design m a c h i n e s today...
Friday, 16 March 12
IBM - Watson 2010
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Life and death decisions are a fact of life...
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But machines are now assuming new levels of responsibility in medicine...
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To say the least this p o s e s s o m e v e r y serious issues...
Friday, 16 March 12
So what do we know of Intelligence ?
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Stanley Kubrick &
Arthur C Clarke 1968
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Dave has a bit of a problem with HAL...- “Open the pod bay doors HAL”- “Sorry Dave, I can’t do that”
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Machines do make mistakes, but so do we...and very often they go hand in hand, embedded in the root of software...
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The generic question we keep asking:
Where is HAL 9000 ?
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Where is he ?
1968
2000
2011Friday, 16 March 12
Three big questions
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Three big questions
Will Hal be here in 2025 ?
Friday, 16 March 12
Three big questions
Will Hal be here in 2025 ?
Will I be here in 2025 ?
Friday, 16 March 12
Three big questions
Will Hal be here in 2025 ?
Will I be here in 2025 ?
Will my computer be proud of me before I die ?
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AI plays better games than us !
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AI outsmarts us on knowledge
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AI control a lot of our industrial process to feed, clothe, keep us warm and transport us...
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AI is now bringing a new level of creativity and problem solving to the party...
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BUT aren’t we just talking machines running algorithms ?
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The big problem is that we cannot describe, quantify or measure intelligence?
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>> 150 published definitions ??
AND - IQ Tests are worthless ??
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1960 70 80 90 2000 10
Com
putin
g Po
wer
MIP/s
Inte
llige
nce
Leve
l
PC
Internet SuperComputer
Friday, 16 March 12
The singularity priesthood 2035 !
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I got a call from a defence company
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compare
systems ?
How do we
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P.M Friday, 16 March 12
No P or M !
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No P or M !
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Scanning long term comatose patients of 10 years...considered to be totally vegetative !
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Ask them to think a b o u t p l a y i n g tennis...
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For >60% the brain activity is the same as for you and I...
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They are entombed in meat space...
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Sensors S = 0 no intelligence
Actuators A = 0 no intelligence
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Axiom
Intelligence is Entropic
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compare
systems ?A 30 second tutorial !
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ActuatorA
So starting with a simple model of this form...
ProcessorP1
SystemEnvirons
MemoryM
ProcessorP2
SensorsS
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And building the complexity a layer at a time...
SystemEnvirons
MemoryShortTerm
Processor1
Actuator
Sensors
MemoryLongTerm
Processor2
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Ic ~ k log2[1 + K.A.S ( 1 + P.M )]
S = Sensor, A = Actuator, P = Processor, M = Memory
Followed by mathematical juggling and normalisation, liberties, crimes, & of course engineering licence...
Friday, 16 March 12
So why isn’t my laptop intelligent?
Friday, 16 March 12
So why isn’t my laptop intelligent?
How about: - sensors? - adaptability?
Friday, 16 March 12
But we are rolling out intelligent sensors!
Friday, 16 March 12
But we are rolling out intelligent sensors!
And our machines will see, hear, smell….…detect and communicate in a way and
at a rate we cannot!
Friday, 16 March 12
1960 70 80 90 2000 10
Com
putin
g Po
wer
MIP/sIntelligence
Level
PC
Estimates of Artificial Intelligence
Internet
Friday, 16 March 12
1960 70 80 90 2000 10
Com
putin
g Po
wer
MIP/sIntelligence
Level
PC
Estimates of Artificial Intelligence
Internet
Friday, 16 March 12
The good news !
Friday, 16 March 12
Mobile Sensors and Actuators by the Bn !
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G o o g l e , I B M a re mov i n g i n to t h i s space!
Friday, 16 March 12
And it will arrive on our phones, tablets, pads, laptops via The Cloud...
Friday, 16 March 12
And the day can’t come quick enough!
Thank You
ca-global.orgcochrane.org.uk
COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s
Friday, 16 March 12
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