Rise of smart mobility part 1 - rise of smart mobility era

The Rise of Smart Mobility Era – Part 1

The Rise of the Smart Mobility Era

William El Kaim – May 2015

This Presentation is part of the

Enterprise Architecture Digital Codex

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• The travel industry’s growth is correlated to GDP

• A new urbanized and connected world

• 21st Century Is The Era Of Cities

• Conquering the last mile

• Smart mobility providers for crowded cities

• The rise of smart mobility aggregators

• The start of a Mobility era

The travel industry’s growth is

correlated to GDP

Population

In 2013 The Combined GDP Of Poor Nations

Became Greater Than The Rich Ones

GDP Forecast

http://money.cnn.com/news/economy/world_economies_gdp/

World GDP Economic Centre Of Gravity Move To

The East and To The South

The Travel Industry’s Growth Is Correlated To GDP

• If world GDP increases by

1%, then air traffic generally

increase by 1.3%.

• It is estimated that the price

elasticity of passenger air

traffic is around -0.6 at world

level; that means that if the

average ticket price

decreases by 1% then air

traffic to increase by 0.6%

Travel Industry Growth

• the travel industry would grow 5.4% per annum for the next 10 years, outstripping global GDP.

• By 2023 the total share of global outbound expenditure is predicted to reach 20%, up from 1% in 2005.

• Elsewhere, Brazil, India, Russia, Turkey and Indonesia were cited as the markets with the biggest potential for growth.

• Chinese travelers to U.S. will rise about 140% in next 4-5 years, India 54%, Colombia 56%, Brazil 50%!

Middle Class Growing

Source: Kharas and Gertz, Airbus

Middle Class Growing

A new urbanized and

connected world

World Urban Population

Source: UN Population Division, Airbus

Top Ten Urbanized Countries

Propensity To Travel And Urbanization Are Correlated

21st Century Is The Era Of

Cities

Rise of Megacities

While the world total population will increase from 7 to 8.3 billion people in 2030, the urbanization growth rate is expected to be 2 % per year, representing 60 % of the world population or 5 billion people in 2030

The Global South’s Rising Megacities: A Challenge

to Urban Living

Megacities With More Than 10M People

USA Mega Regions

Connecting MegaCities is Key

Airport Growth Is Correlated To Population Growth

• “If the 20th Century Was The Era Of Nations, The 21st Century Is The Era Of

Cities” Lee Myungbak, former President of the Republic of Korea.

• As the world becomes more crowded, so do airports.

• ACI estimates that by 2020 there will be 7 billion passengers arriving and departing

through the world's airports. That's the entirety of today's world population.

• Airports will be under enormous pressure to accommodate growth.

• Airports have evolved as drivers of business location and urban

development in the 21st century

• In the same way as did highways in the 20th century, railroads in the 19th century

and seaports in the 18th century.

• At the largest international airports passenger terminals are morphing into

luxury shopping malls and artistic and recreational venues, as well as

locations to exchange knowledge and conduct business.

Aetropolis Origin

Aetropolis was first

proposed by New

York commercial artist

Nicholas DeSantis,

presented in the

November 1939 issue

of Popular Science:

Skyscraper Airport for

City of Tomorrow

Aetropolis Vision by D. Kasarda

The term was revived and

substantially extended by

academic and air commerce

expert Dr. John D. Kasarda in

• As economies become

increasingly globalized and

dependent on electronic

commerce, air commerce,

and the speed and agility it

provides to the movement of

people and goods, has become

its logistical backbone.

Aerotropolis vs. Airport City (Wikipedia)

• Aerotropolis

• Airport integrated urban economic region

• An urban plan in which the layout, infrastructure, and economy is centered around an

airport, existing as an airport city.

• It is similar in form and function to a traditional metropolis, which contains a central city

core and its commuter-linked suburbs.

• Airport city: business or tourism destination in its own right.

• is a term for an "inside the fence" airport area including the airport (terminals, apron, and

runways) and on-airport businesses such as air cargo, logistics, offices, retail, hotels and

even entertainment and theme parks

• Total Airports revenues target from non-aeronautical = 40–60%.

AETROPOLIS

The airport city is at the core of

the aerotropolis

AIRPORT CITY

Kasarda's Aerotropolis Concept in Video

South Korea Aetropolis

Panatropolis – Global Hub of the new World

Airport City Denver

Airport City Manchester

Chopin Airport City - Poland

http://www.chopinairportcity.pl/en

Conquering the last mile

Smart City

• Urbanization creating massive and rapid pressure on mass transit systems

• 80% of the world’s population will be living in cities by 2050.

• A growing urban middle class also creates challenges.

• Increasingly sophisticated, and web-connected consumers demand a better customer

experience in mobility.

• Proliferation of sensors

• Smartphones not only create the opportunity to provide services to users, but they are

also sensors in their own right and hence rich sources of data.

• Sensors are being installed in city to get a more precise vision of its “context”

• The need for new business model

• Just as contextual mobility creates the opportunity for a better passenger experience

and faster passenger flow, it also creates the opportunity for transport service providers

to market additional services

Smart City

• The concept of 'smarter cities'

originated in 2008, by IBM as part of

its Smarter Planet initiative.

• A Smart City should have at least

five out of the eight “smart”

parameters listed by Frost &

Sullivan.

Smart City Principles

Live Singapore site

Re-programming Mobility

• In lieu of large civil infrastructure projects, transportation systems are increasingly

being augmented with a range of information technologies that make them smarter,

safer, more efficient, more integrated.

• Transformation is now being driven by the private sector.

• Companies are investing in infrastructure for mobility on a similar scale, but using very different

technology.

• All but invisible to planners and citizens alike, new communications network are

becoming the most important transportation infrastructure of our era, enabling us to re-

invent the how our roads, transit systems, and freight and logistics networks function.

• The hidden nature of these new mobility infrastructures – tiny devices in our pockets

communicating over invisible radio waves with algorithms running on servers in the

cloud – has conspired to conceal the important public policy and planning issues that

their mass adoption raises.Source: RE-PROGRAMMING MOBILITY, The Digital Transformation of Transportation in the United States, Dr. Anthony Townsend, Senior Research Scientist; Rudin Center for Transportation Policy & Management

NYC Bus Performance

http://bustime.mta.info/wiki/Developers/Index

The End of Travel as We knew it!

• End of travel era and the beginning of the Mobility era

• People will be “mobile” and Connected all the time (domestic)

• People will leverage their context (“network”) as much as possible – social,

geographical, financial, health …

• People will travel virtually to meet and work with people abroad without risks at low cost

• Impacts

• Travel will be not be seen anymore as station to station (origin & destination, peer to

peer, etc.), or as a Tx or PNR.

• The Itinerary will no more a sheet of paper you will print out, but a living data

aggregation piece.

• The future

• Moving towards integrated mobility with a number of new mobility suppliers, and

disruptive digital business models.

• The "omnia illico" era (Everything Now !).

Smart mobility providers

for crowded cities

Mobility Player: Leap Transit

PADAM – Night Shared Bus in Paris

Meinfernbus

Veniam

Transdev

Xerox Transportation

The Future Of Transport Is About Sharing

The 20 largest bicycle sharing systems in the world. Three are in Europe (Paris, London, Barcelona), two are in North America (New York and Toronto), the other 15 are in China. Data: Earth Policy Institute, 2013!

Audi UNITE

• Unite, a car-sharing pilot program (currently only available in Stockholm).

• The program allows up to five people to share “ownership” of an Audi via a

smartphone scheduling app, which allows all owners to reserve the vehicle,

see the car’s location and even check fuel levels.

• Aside from the app, owners receive a beacon to attach to their key ring,

which electronically tracks personal usage.

Mercedes Driverless Prototype

Sharing Company Cars: Local Motion

Sharing Company Cars: Openfleet

Alphabet

Velib’ in Paris France

CityBike in New York

ScootNetworks

Smart Scooter

Smart, the Daimler brand that makes the ultra-compact Smart Car, announced its 5.4-horsepower Smart Scooter

Use your iPhone as the console

Wattmobile : Electric Vehicle at French Railway

Stations

Driverless Car

Urban Transport Pods

• Human operator interacts

with the pod using a

touchscreen in the

windshield.

• Swipe to select a

destination, and use the

built-in wireless hotspot to

connect your gadgets.

• The pod operates on its

own, showing its current

route.

Already being used in Masdar City in Abu Dhabi and at the London Heathrow airport, but both are used in tightly controlled areas.

LUTZ is a system of driverless cars, or pods, that will be deployed in Milton Keynes, a town northeast of London

Hitachi's ROPITS tablet-controlled, self-driving

urban vehicle

The rise of smart mobility

aggregators

The rise of smart mobility aggregators

• Market will see new players termed Mobility Aggregator (MA) emerged

• Entity which offers a selection of mobility services as core business either as standalone

providers or through partnerships. Source: Frost and Sullivan

NS Business Card

• 5% of business travelers use the train, while 95% use other modes of

transportation, mainly cars, thereby opening up a number of avenues for NS

to innovate.

• The transit payment system that the NS Business Card employed on a

national level, focuses on flexible post-paid payments rather than on a pre-

paid system

Daimler Mobility Services

Mobility Aggregators - Europe Examples …

Ex: Citroen Multicity

Example: Mu By Peugeot

The start of a mobility era

Welcome To The Mobility Era

Mobility is about

seamless travel using

all of the various modes

of transportation

available rather than

relying solely on one

transportation mode.

Source: Frost and Sullivan

Key Resources

• Genius presentation by Frost & Sullivan’s

• Future of Mobility—New Business Models, Opportunities, and Market Entrants in

Mobility Integration (slideshare)

• Future of mobility video teaser (youtube)

• Connected World – Transforming Travel, Transportation and Supply Chains,

World Economic Forum.

• The smart mobility management review.

• Re-programming Mobility: The Digital Transformation of Transportation in the

United States

Twitter

http://www.twitter.com/welkaim

SlideShare

http://www.slideshare.net/welkaim

EA Digital Codex

http://www.eacodex.com/

http://fr.linkedin.com/in/williamelkaim

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