Fuel Economy

State of the World 2016

John German, ICCT

March 17, 2016

Fuel Economy Detroit

Dearborn, MI

Overview

Status of light and heavy-duty vehicle fuel

economy and greenhouse gas emission

standards in the US and globally

Progress towards GFEI target of doubling new

passenger vehicle fuel economy by 2030

In-use emissions data reveals a growing gap

between test cycle and real world emissions.

Global car stock to 2050

UNEP Policy Progress Map

Fuel economy standards around the world

5

Status of LDV (car) fuel economy

standards, normalized to U.S. CAFE

6

US 2025: 56.2

Canada 2025: 56.2

Mexico 2016 : 35.1

EU 2021: 56.9

Japan 2020: 45.9

China 2020: 47.7

S. Korea 2020: 56.7

India 2022: 20.8

Brazil 2017: 40.9

KSA 2020: 40.0

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

25

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Kilo

me

ters

pe

r li

ter

(ga

so

lin

e e

qu

iva

len

t)

Mil

es

pe

r g

all

on

(g

as

olin

e e

qu

iva

len

t),

no

rma

lize

d t

o C

AF

E historical performance

enacted targets

proposed targets or targets under study

Source: http://www.theicct.org/global-pv-standards-chart-library

Compliance pathways for US 4-door

sedans

712

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6

Fu

el e

co

no

my

(k

m/l)

Vehicle footprint (m2)

2014 4-cylinder sedans

2010 4-cylinder sedans

Fusion

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Accord

Camry

Mazda 6

Mazda 6

i-eLOOP

Altima

Fuel Economy Standards

Consumer cost and payback

8

Global Fuel Economy Initiative

Progress towards 2030 target

Country by country progress on fuel

economy

Status Region

Projected share

of global LDV

sales in 2030

Reduction in new

LDV CO2 rates

with adopted

standards

2005-2030

China 29% 34%

India 16% 26%

US 13% 52%

EU 12% 39%

Brazil 3% 13%

Japan 2% 27%

Mexico 2% 14%

Canada 1% 49%

South Korea 1% 48%

Saudi Arabia 1% 15%Total 80% 38%

No efficiency

standards Total 20% 4%

100% 27%

Adopted LDV

efficiency

standards

Global sales-weighted average

Source: Fuel Economy State of the World 2016, GFEI

Progress towards doubling new passenger

vehicle fuel economy by 2030

4%

38%

27%

50%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

No

rma

lize

d n

ew

ve

hic

le C

O2 r

ate

s

(20

05

ba

se

lin

e =

10

0)

No light-duty efficiency standards

Adopted light-duty efficiency standards

Global sales-weighted average

GFEI target: 50% reduction by 2030

Source: Fuel Economy State of the World 2016, GFEI

Meeting GFEI target will stabilized global CO2

emissions

12Estimated using ICCT's Global Transportation Roadmap model (Facanha, et al., 2012). Business as usual

= vehicle efficiency remains at 2005 levels. Adopted = currently adopted policies. GFEI Target = countries adopt

standards that reduce average fuel consumption of new vehicles to 50% below 2005 levels by 2030 (GFEI, 2014).

Compliance Challenges

The importance of mandatory standards

14

Automotive industry self

commitment adoptedCO2 monitoring

system established Formal adoption of

CO2 performance

standards regulation

Review of European

Commission strategy,

decision to introduce

regulatory measures

Rising concern: real world emissions diverging from

standards

15

http://www.theicct.org/laboratory-road-2014-update

16

Thank you!

John German, International Council on Clean Transportation