The End of Oil

www.nikolasbadminton.com

Let’s start with some stats…

285m vehicles

Source: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/trade14a-eng.htm + http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-ihs-automotive-average-age-car-20140609-story.html

11.4 years old

Source: http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-ihs-automotive-average-age-car-20140609-story.html

<1%Source: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/trade14a-eng.htm + http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-ihs-automotive-average-age-car-20140609-story.html

And, let’s see how things will change.

http://www.bloomberg.com/features/2016-ev-oil-crisis/

http://www.bloomberg.com/features/2016-ev-oil-crisis/

“25% of the cars on the road by 2040 will be EV, displacing 13 million barrels per day of crude oil but using 2,700TWh of electricity.”

Bloomberg New Energy FinanceSource: https://ecowatch.com/2016/03/09/electric-car-revolution-bloomberg/ and http://about.bnef.com/press-releases/electric-vehicles-to-be-35-of-global-new-car-sales-by-2040/

Everyone’s selling EVs

400,000http://www.theverge.com/2016/4/21/11477034/tesla-model-3-preorders-400000-elon-musk

That’s not 2020

That is today!

500K vehicles per year by 2020

“There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance.”

Steve Ballmer (Interviewed during his tenure as Microsoft’s CEO in 2007)

The Future

Will our children drive?

Source: Fuels Institute “Driver Demographics”, Federal Highway Administration

“I have 14 years to work on my daughter and to induce within her a love affair with the automobile. I can only hope that when she is 16 she will still “want” to drive herself – otherwise, I will have considered myself a car-enthusiast failure of a father.”

John Eichberger , fulsinstitute.org

Source: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-drive/adventure/red-line/peter-cheney-drives-down-memory-lane-to-a-time-when-cars-were-special/article26796212/

Autonomous Vehicles

2000 deaths per year

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/rob-commentary/how-autonomous-vehicles-will-transform-economies/article28931855/

Lausanne, Switzerland Trikala, Greece Zhengzhou, China Wageningen, Netherlands

Drones

http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/sep/25/german-dhl-launches-first-commercial-drone-delivery-service

http://fortune.com/2016/04/06/dispatch-carry-delivery-robot/

http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/sep/25/german-dhl-launches-first-commercial-drone-delivery-service

Hyperloop

Hyperloop

What’s Happening?

http://www.citynews.ca/2016/04/28/ontario-budgets-20-million-for-500-electric-vehicle-charging-stations-in-2017/

“We are not dependent solely on oil for our energy needs. Gold, phosphate, uranium, and many other valuable minerals are found beneath our land. But our real wealth lies in the ambition of our people and the potential of our younger generation. They are our nation’s pride and the architects of our future. “

Muhammad Bin Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud Chairman of the Council of Economic and

Development Affairs

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/apr/18/netherlands-parliament-electric-car-petrol-diesel-ban-by-2025

http://qz.com/524877/toyota-has-an-ambitious-plan-to-almost-stop-selling-gasoline-cars-by-2050/

https://cleantechnica.com/2016/04/27/austria-may-ban-sales-new-gas-diesel-cars-2020/

Canada in 2030 & 2050

2030:All public transport, co-op schemes, and taxis will use electric vehicles and will have a greater level of adoption.

2030:Solar power plus electric vehicles will be the desired option for personal transport.

2030:Haulage will be hybridized (at minimum), or use biofuels.

2030:No more traditional gasoline cars will roll off of production lines.

$429bn

$605bn

$513bn

$282bn

2040:Haulage will be 100% biofuels + electric.

2050:86% of the people in the developed world will live in cities (United Nations)

http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/Publications/Files/WUP2014-Highlights.pdf

2050:No-one will use combustion engine anything.

The End of Oil

www.nikolasbadminton.com