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July 29, 2013
Hitachi Construction Machinery Co., Ltd.
© Hitachi Construction Machinery Co., Ltd. 2013. All rights reserved.
Vice President and Executive Officer
Yasushi Ochiai
Regional Market Environments and Projections
Business Result for the First Quarter ended June 30, 2013
2 Global Demand Trend for Hydraulic Excavator
Japan
Western Europe
North America
China
Asia Oceania
Others
Total
*当社推定
(複写・転用は御遠慮下さい)
*中国国産メーカ含まず
2429
47
44
73
111 7042
51 51
28 31 3320
10 14 23 28 34 36
3742
52
26
1523
2725 22 23
3230
24
17
10
13
1924 27 25
17
21
29
23 29
40
48
44
48 4318
25
36
32 15
2938
39
4141
223 219
202
225230
151161
221
179
155
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '13
千台
*Inc. India
前回
見通
今回
見通
*Source HCM
(Distributing, Copying, or forwarding is prohibited. )
*Excluding Chinese manufacturer (K units)
Previous
forecast
Latest
forecast
Year-on-Year Change
Emerging Countries: 62%
※Emerging countries: China,
Asia/Oceania, and others.
'12 '13 '13Previous Forecast Latest Forecast
+25% +20% +27%-7% -13% -8%
+26% +15% +4%-41% +21% +21%
India -21% +10% -9%Indonesia -19% +15% -9%Others +9% +5% +5%
-8% +9% -2%Russia, EEurope, -3% +8% +8%Africa +39% -12% -9%
Middle East -2% -1% +1%Latin America -4% +13% +13%
+2% +4% +5%-10% +10% +8%Total
Japan
W Europe
N America
China
Asia & Oceania
Others
3
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
FY08/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
FY09/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
FY10/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
FY11/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
FY12/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
FY13/1Q
<Japan>
New housing starts
Capex Public spending
*Source: MLIT, Cabinet Office, and Construction Survey Company.
0
5
10
15
20
FY08/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
FY09/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
FY10/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
FY11/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
FY12/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
FY13/1Q
2Q
-150%
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%*Estimated by HCM (K units)
0
5
10
15
20
FY08/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
FY09/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
FY10/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
FY11/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
FY12/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
FY13/1Q
2Q
-150%
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
0
5
10
15
20
FY08/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
FY09/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
FY10/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
FY11/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
FY12/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
FY13/1Q
2Q
-150%
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
Market Environment: Housing/Public Spending and Capex (y-o-y) Demand Trend for Mini Excavators
Demand Trend for Hydraulic Excavators Demand Trend for Wheel Loaders
◇ Strong increase of demand derived from significant increase in public works and housing starts. ◇ Solid growth expected mainly in rental and general sectors in FY 2013.
(K units)
(K units)
*Estimated by HCM
*Estimated by HCM
4 <Europe> *Ex-Works base
*Source: IMF, etc.
*Estimated by HCM
(K units)
France
EUR zone
UK
Germany
France
UK
Germany
Italy
Others
France
UK
Germany
Italy
Others
France
UK
Germany
Italy
Others
Demand Trend for Hydraulic Excavators Demand Trend for Wheel Loaders
Demand Trend for Mini Excavators Market Environment: GDP Growth Rate in Major Countries (y-o-y)
◇ The European economy has shown signs of recovery in some countries such as the UK,
Germany, and Northern European countries; however the European region as a whole is still
suffering from stagnation.
◇ Demand in Europe continues to fall short in compare to previous year.
*Estimated by HCM *Estimated by HCM
(K units)
(K units)
5 <North America>
0
500
1000
1500
2000
CY08/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
CY09/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
CY10/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
CY11/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
CY12/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
CY13 1
Q
2Q
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
Housing starts (Left axis)
GDP(y-o-y/Right axis)
*Bureau of Economic Census, US Census Bureau
(Seasonally-adjusted) )
*Bureau of Economic Census, US Census Bureau
(K units)
0
5
10
15
20
FY08/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
FY09/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
FY10/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
FY11/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
FY12/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
FY13/1Q
2Q
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
0
5
10
15
20
FY08/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
FY09/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
FY10/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
FY11/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
FY12/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
FY13/1Q
2Q
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
Demand Trend for Mini Excavators
Demand Trend for Hydraulic Excavators
Market Environment: Construction Spending in the US (y-o-y)
Market Environment: The US Market Environment
◇ The number of housing starts remains at high level
◇ The investment of residential remains at high growth ratio while non-residential and public construction sector
are almost in same level as previous year
◇ Demand in N. America continues to be strong mainly in housing, energy, and rental businesses
50%
75%
100%
125%
150%
CY0
8/
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
CY0
9/
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
CY1
0/
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
CY1
1/
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
CY1
2/
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
CY1
3/
1Q
2Q
Residential Non-residential State&Local
(K units) *Estimated by HCM
*Estimated by HCM (K units)
6
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
April
May
June Ju
ly
Augu
st
Septem
ber
Octobe
r
Nove
mbe
r
Dece
mbe
r
Janu
ary
Februa
ry
March
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
FY08/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
FY09/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
FY10/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
FY11/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
FY12/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
FY13/1Q
2Q
-150%
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
<China>
*当社推定
Domestic
Foreign
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
CY08/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
CY09/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
CY10/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
CY11/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
CY12/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
CY13/1Q
2Q
0
5
10
15
20
North China -48%/-57%/-59%/-27%
North West -47%/-49%/-37%/-9%
South West -30%/-12%/-11%/45%
North East -60%/-69%/-61%/1%
South Middle China -40%/-40%/-34%/7%
East China -44%/-39%/-18%/36%
Total China -43%/-40%/-32%/11%
(y-o-y)
Fixed Assets Investment, (y-o-y) (Left axis)
GDP(Right axis) (annualized)
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
*Foreign Manufactures only *Estimated by HCM
FY13 Forecast
FY 12 Actual
FY11 Actual
Market Environment: GDP and Fixed Asset Investment Demand Trend for Hydraulic Excavators
Quarterly Demand for Hydraulic Excavators by Region (y-o-y) Monthly Demand Trend of Hydraulic Excavators in China
(K units)
(%)
◇ The demand in China, which continued to decline for 23 months consecutively, has turned positive since
April 2013 , but still careful observation is required to gauge the future direction.
◇ Demand in South West, East China and South Middle China increased from the previous year.
◇ Increased demand in small-medium size works for irrigation and infrastructure projects.
*Estimated by HCM
FY12 2Q/3Q/4Q/FY13 1Q 【Chinese New Year】
Jan 23, 2012
Feb 10, 2013
Jan 31, 2014
※Actual of April ~June 2013
(K units)
*Estimated by HCM
*Foreign Manufactures only
7 《Topics》 Chinese Market
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY11/1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FY12/1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FY13/1Q
Demand Composition by Class for Mini Excavators and Hydraulic Excavators
0
5
10
15
Apr May Jan Jul AugSepOct Nov DecJan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul AugSepOct Nov DecJan Feb Mar Apr May Jun-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
(K units)
Monthly Demand Trend for Hydraulic Excavator
FY 2012 FY2013
* Foreign Manufacturers Only
(y-o-y)
【Chinese New Year 】 Jan 23, 2012/Feb 10, 2013/Jan 31, 2014 * Estimated by HCM
FY 2011
15tbelow
20~39t
~10t
20t
10~15t
21~29t
30~39t
40t-
* Estimated by HCM * Foreign Manufacturers Only
8 <Asia/Oceania and India>
Thai
Malaysia
Singapore
Indonesia
India
Thai
Malaysia
Singapore
Australia
Indonesia
NZ
Others
◇ GDP Growth rate remains firm.
◇ Although the Indian market has firm demand related to infrastructure, the future of the economy as a whole
remains unpromising.
◇ The Indonesian market suffers from resource prices decrease, and it has been slowing down since many projects
are delayed.
(%)
0
1
2
3
4
5
FY08/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
FY09/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
FY10/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
FY11/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
FY12/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
FY13/1Q
2Q
-150%
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
0
5
10
FY08/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
FY09/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
FY10/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
FY11/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
FY12/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
FY13/1Q
2Q
-150%
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%*Estimated by HCM (K units)
Demand Trend for Hydraulic Excavators in Asia & Oceania
Demand Trend for Hydraulic Excavators in India
Market Environment :Real GDP Growth Rate (y-o-y)
*Estimated by HCM (K units)
*Source: IMF, etc.
9
石炭・パームオイル先物・木材価格
0
500
1000
'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '140
100
200
300
400
500(US$/t)
(US$/t)
0
1
2
3
4
FY08/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
FY09/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
FY10/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
FY11/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
FY12/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
FY13/1Q
2Q
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%*Estimated by HCM
(K Units )
<Topics>Indonesian Market
Coal price are weak
Palm oil/Lumber
price are weak
Coal
(Right axis)
Lumber
(Right axis)
Palm Oil
(Left Axis)
* Created by HCM , the source from IMF HP
<Source: IMF>
Demand for Hydraulic Excavators
(y-o-y)
0%
50%
100%
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q
Demand Composition for Hydraulic Excavators by Classes *Estimated by HCM
~16t
30~40t
16~30t
40~75t
75t~
FY11 FY12 FY13 * Dotted lines, the forecast by IMF as of March 2013
Price of Thermal coal, Palm Oil Future and Lumber
10 <Russia and the Middle East>
*Source IMF/World Bank
UAE
KSA
Turkey
Others
0
1
2
3
4
5
FY08/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
FY09/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
FY10/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
FY11/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
FY12/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
FY13/1Q
2Q
-200%
-100%
0%
100%
200%(K units )
(US$)
Demand Trend for Hydraulic Excavators in Russia
Demand Trend for Hydraulic Excavators in Middle East Market Environment: Price Trend of Crude Oil and Natural Gas
*Estimated by HCM
*Ex-Works base
*Incl. Local manufacturing
(US$)
Crude Oil
(Left axis)
Natural Gas
(Right axis)
<Estimated by World Bank> *Estimated by HCM
*Ex-Works base (K units)
【Russia】 Demands for energy and infrastructure are same level as previous year.
【Middle East】 Demand for urban development and infrastructure is strong in
Turkey and Saudi Arabia.
《Topics》 New Customer for major Russian Iron
Ore Mine ordered 2 units of EX5600E-6LD
08 09 10 11 12 13 14
11
0
200
400
600
FY08/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
FY09/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
FY10/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
FY11/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
FY12/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
FY13/1Q
2Q
-100%
0%
100%
0
200
400
600
FY08/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
FY09/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
FY10/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
FY11/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
FY12/1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
FY13/1Q
2Q
-100%
0%
100%
*Estimated by HCM <Mining Machinery>
Demand Trend for Ultra-large Hydraulic Excavators (100t and over)
◇ Resource prices remain unfavorable, and recovery of the mining market cannot be expected within
FY 2013.
◇ Demand will fall 10% below the previouse forecast.
Demand Trend for Mining Dump Trucks (150t and over)
0
100
200
300
400
500
1st
half
10
2nd
half
10
1st
half
11
2nd
half
11
1st
half
12
2nd
half
12
1st
half
13
Demand Trend by Region
Ultra-large Excavators
Demand Trend by Region
Mining Trucks
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1st
half
10
2nd
half
10
1st
half
11
2nd
half
11
1st
half
12
2nd
half
12
1st
half
13
Africa M. East
Asia
China
Oceania
Eur, Russia CIS
N. America
L. America
Africa M. East
Asia
China
Oceania
Eur, Russia CIS
N. America
L. America
(Units)
*150t and over
*100t and over
*Estimated by HCM
*Estimated by HCM
*Estimated by HCM
(y-o-y)
(y-o-y)
*Estimated by HCM
(Units)
© Hitachi Construction Machinery Co., Ltd. 2013. All rights reserved.
For further inquiries:
Norio Hayamizu
Public Relations Strategy office
END
TEL : 03-3830-8065
FAX : 03-3830-8224