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Livestock within a multi-market modeling framework: the example of IMPACT
Conference on Mainstreaming Livestock Value Chains, Section 4: Data and Tools
Best Western Premier Airport Hotel, Accra , Ghana.
5-6 Nov, 2013
Siwa Msangi, Dolapo Enahoro
An Notenbaert, Mario Herrero, Signe Nelgen
Petr Havlik
Livestock in the context of global agriculture
The challenge of modeling global agriculture comes from:• Representing the various linkages between markets – in
terms of consumer choice behavior, linkages b/w output markets & important mkt inputs (e.g. labor, fertilizer)
• Accounting for the scarcity of important inputs into production (land, water, feed, etc) – in quantity terms
• Adequately representing the producer decisions and objectives (profit maximize/cost minimize/stock-holding)
• Representing the heterogeneity of production systems• Differentiating behaviors for annual vs perennial activities
Page 2
Improving livestock representation in IMPACT
Starting from the IFPRI IMPACT model – we have been working to improve the representation of livestock – in a way that addresses these challenges
Have undertaken this in a number of steps• Disaggregate livestock production across systems• Capture differences in feed requirements across these
systems• Link the availability of these feeds to what is available on
the landscape or what can be obtained through markets Has been a step-wise process, that has required re-
thinking some key aspects of how livestock is modeled
Page 3
Overview of model structure
The Global Livestock Production Systems
Source: FAO, 2011
Distributions of Livestock
Fig 2: Distribution of Cattle in Livestock Systems in Developed Countries
Fig 3: Distribution of Cattle in Livestock Systems in Developing Countries
Fig 4: (Percent) Distribution of Sheep and Goat in Livestock Systems
MixedRangelandUrbanOther
MixedRangelandUrbanOther
Mixe
d
Range
land
Urban
Other
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Developed CountriesDeveloping Countries
Key components of livestock modeling
Demand-side factors are similar to those for other non-livestock commodities.
Food demand is mainly driven by • Per-capita income growth • Population• Urbanization (and other preference shifters)
Feed demand occurs for marketed and non-marketed feed products – whereas we observe marketed feeds in data, we have to calculate the non-marketed feed uses This is often where FAOSTAT data do not agree with the
feed demands derived from biophysical requirements for animal growth
Page 7
As people get richer they consume more animal products
Consumption of Meat
Key components of livestock modeling The supply-side of agricultural markets are driven by both
biophysical & economic drivers of change Biophysical components relate to
• Climate (temp, water) – determine biological stress• Soil quality – matters to vegetative growth (grasslands)• Animal growth and nutrient requirements
Economic factors relate to Technological change (productivity, efficiency) System change (extensive -> mixed -> intensive)
Animal numbers – monogastrics are annual activities, whereas ruminants have herd dynamics that reflect producer decisions and biophysical determinants
Yield per animal – relates to feed (availability & practices)Page 9
Key components of livestock modeling The key decisions we should model for livestock are:
• Feed mix (across marketed & non-marketed feeds)• Stocking rates (has an implicit land use dimension)• Off-take and cull
The land use dimensions of livestock are complex and differ across systems (which we don’t capture well) Extensive systems – needs to be explicit Mixed systems – depends on prodn of crop residues &
availability of other supplementary feeds Intensive systems – has no explicit LU dimension
The land use dimensions of transhumance are entirely missed in much of the macro-modeling that is done
Page 10
Breakdown of Livestock Feed
Demand for pasture & grass expected to grow the fastest
Page 11IMPACT model (2013)
Aquaculture Now a Major Meat Sector
Page 12
In only 20 years, aquaculture has grown to nearly match the share of beef in global meat production
Aquaculture: Fastest Growing Food Sector
Page 13
Growth of aquaculture almost 2x as fast as other food/meat sectors
Changes in Global Use of Fishmeal for Feed
Source: Shepherd (2012)
Aquaculture ‘crowding out’ livestock for fishmeal feed use Fishmeal and protein meals are substitutable, but with limits Livestock (esp poultry) have been able to find substitutes for
fishmeal more easily compared to fish
Global Demand for Fishmeal from Livestock and Aquaculture
Page 15IMPACT model (2013)
Feed sourcing from co-products
Important co-products from industrial processes like biofuels production will continue to be used as feed
Page 16IMPACT model (2013)
The importance of co-products
The future success of the bioeconomy depends on the added-value of co-products derived from chemical conversion processes (e.g. DDGS from biofuels) – for use in important sectors such as livestock
When ‘by-products’ become ‘co-products’ (i.e. something to be used rather than disposed of) – then the commercial potential & profitability improves
The failure of jatropha to take off is due to low yields as well as limited co-product value for uses in animal feed (compared to other oilseeds) – needs more R&D
The processing waste from fish food preparation will become increasingly valuable source of feed for fish
Page 17
Summary & Implications for Policy
The future for livestock (and fish) depends heavily on the ability to manage feed & disease Gains in technical efficiency and sourcing of
additional feeds will be critical for livestock and fish (fish & poultry are the most efficient feed converters)
Monogastrics & aquaculture will still compete for feed Sharing of best practices in management is crucial
Some key weaknesses in modeling livestock are: Modeling rangeland/grassland availability Relatively few biophysical models (compared to
crops) – still don’t capture heat/water stress directly Capturing the land-use dimensions still a challenge
THANK YOU!
See: http://www.ifpri.org/
