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Detailed research and analysis. Current health of America's durable goods manufacturing industries. Rating and comparison of primary metals, fabricated metal products, machinery manufacturing, computer and electronic products, electrical equipment, and transportation equipment. Growth trends. Employment situation. Financial statements. Jobs. Output and Inventories. Productivity and capacity utilization. Import and Export. PPI. CPI.
Citation preview
THE MASHBURN REPORT
August 2013
Current State of America’s Durable Goods Manufacturing Sector
Foreword, from the Author
My name is Lee Mashburn. I am a degreed manufacturing technologist who has engaged in various process and application engineering roles across a myriad of manufacturing industries. Since my engineering days, I have worked almost 20 years as marketer and product manager for recognized and respected technology corporations such as Honeywell, SAP, and SSA Global. My teams have scoped and launched innovative new software solutions, adopted by thousands of global manufacturers to increase growth, drive profit, reduce costs, and improve operational efficiency. These products helped clients drive better decisions faster to gain a competitive advantage in their market places.
To drive differentiating solutions to market, one must expertly analyze the market to pinpoint gaps, spot trends, quantify potential, and then execute winning go-to-market plans. Few humans have exerted more passion, time, and effort than me to perfect this process. Over the years, I have amassed a unique set of skills and processes to more consistently attack the optimal target market with the right product at the right time.
Throughout my career, I have relentlessly sought better market data to support critical go-to-market initiatives. In many cases I have been underwhelmed, disappointed, and frustrated. Raw intelligence is out there but it can be hard to find and is often not cost-effective. Additionally, most of the raw data simply trends stand-alone variables and requires heavy lifting to convert information into concrete action steps.
To help you overcome these obstacles, I have created the Mashburn Report series. Whether you are an executive, analyst, strategic planner, product manager, or marketer, Mashburn Reports are designed as powerful yet cost-effective tools to supplement your market sizing and analysis efforts. Mashburn Reports uniquely integrate and visualize choice content from more than a dozen market-moving reports. Information contained in my reports is not the typical “cut and paste data into Excel and then create simple trend charts.” This specific report on the state of America’s durable goods manufacturing market contains more than 140 pages of charts, tables, infographics, and industry benchmarks that won’t be found in other documents - at any price point. I believe you will greatly benefit. I hope you enjoy!
About the AuthorLee Mashburn is an accomplished business-to-business marketing and product management executive who has helped companies like SAP, SSA Global, and Honeywell to transform and grow into market leadership positions.
Lee has captained numerous corporate-wide strategic and marketing planning processes. Leveraging available market research data, Lee and his teams have astutely analyzed to uncover the optimal market targets to attack.
Lee has developed his “Mashburn Report” series in order to provide a more insightful and cost-effective product for business professionals and investors who wish to supplement the market data they have traditionally used - in order to make more informed and confident decisions.
Mashburn Reports:Durable Goods Manufacturing
Nondurable Goods ManufacturingRetail Trade (in process)
Wholesale Trade (in process)
Table of Contents
Section 1: Report Introduction & Overview ! ! ! ! Pages 1-21• Introduction• List of manufacturing and trade sectors, industries, and sub-industries• Data sources used for this report• List of performance metrics tracked in this report• Overview of the Mashburn Industry Health Monitor Rating• Comparison of manufacturing industries according to the Mashburn Rating
Section 2: Durable Goods Manufacturing Overview ! ! Pages 22- 38• Table of durable goods manufacturing industries and sub-industries• Market share by sales, value of shipments, and employment level• Consolidated financial statements - income and balance sheets• Employment situation - level, hours worked, hourly earnings• Return per employee• Job openings, hires, and separations• National output & inventories - orders, value of shipments, inventories• Industrial productivity and capacity utilization• Import and export indexes• Producer price indexes
Table of Contents - continued
Section 3: Primary Metal Manufacturing ! ! ! ! ! ! Pages 39-51
Section 4: Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing! ! ! Pages 52-64
Section 5: Machinery Manufacturing! ! ! ! ! ! ! Pages 65-82
Section 6: Computer & Electronic Product Manufacturing! ! Pages 83-99
Section 7: Electrical Equipment, Appliances, & Component! Pages 100-117
Section 8: Transportation Equipment Manufacturing! ! ! Pages 118-135
Introduction
1
This report addresses questions like:‣ What industry segments are encompassed under
the nondurable goods manufacturing super sector?
‣ What are the relative market sizes and growth rates of nondurable goods manufacturing industry segments?
‣ Which key financial and performance metrics are important to track? Why? What are the current states of those key metrics? How have they trended over the past decade what are they doing in 2013? Are there multivariable interrelationships that can expose useful insights?
‣ What data sources are used to support the information contained in this Mashburn Report?
‣ What is the MASHBURN RATING? How is it used to monitor and compare the current health of various manufacturing industry segments?
Mashburn Reports empower those involved with manufacturing markets:‣Marketers and product managers‣Business analysts‣Strategic and operational planners‣ Industry consultants‣Venture capitalists
WHOLESALE TRADE RETAIL TRADE
Merchant, Durable Goods•Motor Vehicles, Parts, & Supplies•Furniture & Home Furnishing•Lumber & Construction Materials•Pro & Commercial Equipment•Metal & Mineral•Household Appliances & Electronics•Hardware, Plumbing, & Heating•Machinery Equipment & Supplies•Miscellaneous
Merchant, Nondurable Goods• Paper & Paper Products• Drugs, Druggists, Sundries• Apparel, Piece Goods, Notions• Grocery & Related Products• Farm Product Raw Material• Chemical & Allied Products• Petroleum, Petroleum Products• Alcoholic Beverage• Miscellaneous
Wholesale, Electronic Market•Business-to-Business•Trade Agents & Brokers
Durable Goods•Wood•Nonmetallic Mineral•Primary Metals•Fabricated Metals•Machinery•Computer & Electronics•Electric Equipment, Appliances•Transportation•Furniture•Miscellaneous
In-Store•Motor Vehicles, Parts, & Supplies•Furniture & Home Furnishing•Electronics & Appliances•Building & Garden Equipment•Food & Beverage•Health & Personal Care•Gasoline Stations•Clothing & Clothing Accessories•Sporting Goods, Hobbies, Games•General Merchandise•Miscellaneous
Non-Store•Electronic Shopping•Mail Order Houses•Vending Machine Operators•Direct Selling Fuel Dealers
Nondurable Goods•Food•Beverage & Tobacco•Textile Mills•Textile Products•Apparel•Leather•Paper•Printing•Petroleum & Coal•Chemical•Plastics & Rubber
MANUFACTURING
2
Samples of the financial & economic publications referenced in Mashburn Reports
‣Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3)
‣Quarterly Financial Report (QFR)
‣Employment Situation Report
‣Job Openings and Labor Turnover
‣Producer Price Index
‣Consumer Price Index
‣Labor Productivity and Cost
‣ Import/Export Price Index
‣Gross Domestic Product
‣Personal income
‣ Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
3
Performance Indicators and metrics that are presented in the Mashburn ReportsThis Mashburn Report analyzes and charts dozens of key economic and financial indicators (view list below) for most manufacturing and trade market segments - typically showcasing 10-year trends.
Employment Situation‣Employment level
‣Average hours worked
‣Average earnings
‣Job openings
‣Labor turnover
Consumer Spend‣Personal consumption expenditures
‣Personal income
Output & Inventories‣New & unfilled orders
‣Value of shipments
‣ Inventory levels
‣ Industrial productivity
‣Capacity utilization
Financial Statements‣Net sales
‣Cost of sales & operations
‣Operating & net income
‣Assets & liabilities
‣Shareholders’ equity
‣Net working capital
Price & Cost Indexes‣Consumer price
‣Producer price
‣Labor productivity & cost
‣ Import/export price
Misc. Metrics‣Cash-to-cash cycle
‣Current ratio
‣Quick ratio
‣Return on assets‣Return on sales
4
Mashburn Index2013 Health Monitor Manufacturing Industries
The Mashburn Index provides a repeatable process for rating and ranking the relative financial and operational health of durable and nondurable goods manufacturing industry segments. A total of thirteen (13) key performance indicators are analyzed and scored to derive a set of numerical indexes that are then compared.
Current index scores range from 50% (poorest health) to 83% (best health) as illustrated below. Transportation Equipment is in the best financial and operational health as of June 2013 with Primary Metals trailing the pack. Plastics & rubber products and food manufacturing rank #2 and #3 to lead the nondurables cause.
5
Transportation#1B-
Plastics & Rubber#2C+
Food Products#3C
Machinery#4C-
Fabricated Metals#5D+
Computer & Electronics#6D
Beverage & Tobacco#7D-
Chemical#10
F
Electrical#9F
Petroleum & Coal#8D-
Paper#11
F
Primary Metals#12
F
MAS
HBUR
N HE
ALTH
MON
ITOR
Augu
st 2
013
6
Mashburn Index - sample from dashboard2013 Health Monitor for Manufacturing Industries
Variables Used to Create Mashburn Index• Operating Profit• Return on Sales• Cash Cycle• Return on Assets• Industrial Production
• Capacity Utilization• Return per Employee• Growth Rates, ’13 vs. ’12• Employment Level• Intangibles
7
The Mashburn IndexComparing Durable and Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Industries
Nondurable
Durable
8Transportation is the healthiest of all top manufacturing industries!
45.0%! 55.0%! 65.0%! 75.0%! 85.0%!
Primary Metals!Paper!
Chemical!Electrical Equipment!
Petroleum & Coal!Beverage & Tobacco!
Computer & Electronics!Fabricated Metal Products!
Machinery!Food!
Plastics & Rubber!Transportation!
The Mashburn IndexComparing Manufacturing Industries
9
Value of Shipments Growth Rate, 2013 vs. 2012
Comparing Durable and Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Industries
Nondurable
Durable
-4%! -2%! 0%! 2%! 4%! 6%! 8%!
Computer & Electronics!Paper!
Primary Metals!Chemical!
Electrical Equipment!Petroleum & Coal!
Beverage & Tobacco!Fabricated Metal Products!
Plastics & Rubber!Food!
Machinery!Transportation!
Data source:M3 Report, U.S. Census BureauFigures reflect calendar year 2012 results
10
Return on Sales (ROS)Comparing Durable and Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Industries
Nondurable
Durable
11
Data source:Quarterly Financial Report, U.S. Census BureauFigures reflect calendar year 2012 results
ROS = (net pre-tax income / net sales) * 100
0%! 5%! 10%! 15%! 20%! 25%!
Machinery!Food!
Paper!Plastics and Rubber!
Primary Metals!Petroleum & Coal!
Transportation!Fabricated Metals!
Electrical!Chemical!
Computer & Electronic!Beverage & Tobacco!
Value of Shipments, in millionsComparing Durable and Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Industries
Data source:M3 Report, U.S. Census BureauFigures reflect calendar year 2012 results
Nondurable
Durable
12
$0! $200! $400! $600! $800! $1,000!
Electrical!Beverage & Tobacco!
Paper!Plastics and Rubber!
Primary Metals!Computer & Electronic!
Fabricated Metals!Machinery!
Food!Transportation!
Chemical!Petroleum & Coal!
Net Sales, in billionsComparing Durable and Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Industries
Nondurable
Durable
13
Data source:Quarterly Financial Report, U.S. Census BureauFigures reflect calendar year 2012 results
$0! $400! $800! $1,200! $1,600!
Paper!Beverage & Tobacco!Plastics and Rubber!
Electrical!Primary Metals!
Fabricated Metals!Machinery!
Computer & Electronic!Food!
Chemical!Transportation!
Petroleum & Coal!
Operating Margin, % of salesComparing Durable and Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Industries
Nondurable
Durable
14
Data source:Quarterly Financial Report, U.S. Census BureauFigures reflect calendar year 2012 results
Operating margin = (operating income / net sales) * 100
0%! 5%! 10%! 15%! 20%!
Petroleum & Coal!Electrical!
Transportation!Primary Metals!
Paper!Food!
Chemical!Plastics and Rubber!
Fabricated Metals!Machinery!
Computer & Electronic!Beverage & Tobacco!
Cash-to-Cash Cycle (C2C), daysComparing Durable and Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Industries
Data source:Quarterly Financial Report, U.S. Census BureauFigures reflect calendar year 2012 results
C2C = (accounts recievable days + inventory days) - accounts payable days 15
Nondurable
Durable
0! 10! 20! 30! 40! 50! 60! 70! 80!
Electrical Equipment!Transportation!
Fabricated Metals!Primary Metals!
Chemical!Machinery!
Beverage & Tobacco!Paper!Food!
Plastics and Rubber!Computer & Electronic!
Petroleum & Coal!
Return on Assets (ROA)Comparing Durable and Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Industries
16
Data source:Quarterly Financial Report, U.S. Census BureauFigures reflect calendar year 2012 results
ROA = (net income / total assets) * 100
Nondurable
Durable
3%! 4%! 5%! 6%! 7%! 8%! 9%! 10%!
Paper!Food!
Transportation!Electrical Equipment!
Plastics & Rubber!Chemical!
Machinery!Computer & Electronics!
Beverage & Tobacco!Petroleum & Coal!
Fabricated Metal Products!
Inventories to Shipments RatioComparing Durable and Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Industries
Nondurable
Durable
17
Data source:M3 Report, U.S. Census BureauFigures reflect calendar year 2012 results
0.0! 0.5! 1.0! 1.5! 2.0!
Machinery!Beverage & Tobacco!
Transportation!Fabricated Metals!
Computer & Electronic!Electrical!
Primary Metals!Chemical!
Plastics and Rubber!Paper!Food!
Petroleum & Coal!
Employment Level, in thousandsComparing Durable and Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Industries
Nondurable
Durable
18
Data source:Employment Situation Report, U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsFigures reflect calendar year 2012 results
0! 300! 600! 900! 1200! 1500!
Petroleum & Coal!Beverage & Tobacco!
Electrical!Paper!
Primary Metals!Plastics and Rubber!
Chemical!Computer & Electronic!
Machinery!Food!
Fabricated Metals!Transportation!
Hourly EarningsComparing Durable and Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Industries
Data source:Employment Situation Report, U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsFigures reflect calendar year 2012 results
Nondurable
Durable
19
$0! $7! $14! $21! $28! $35!
Food!Plastics and Rubber!
Fabricated Metals!Beverage & Tobacco!
Primary Metals!Paper!
Machinery!Electrical!Chemical!
Transportation!Computer & Electronic!
Petroleum & Coal!
Industrial Productivity IndexComparing Durable and Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Industries
Data source:G17 Report, U.S. Federal ReserveFigures reflect end of calendar year 2012 results
An economic indicator that measures changes in output. High levels of industrial production can lead to uncontrolled levels of consumption and rapid inflation.
Nondurable
Durable
20
0! 20! 40! 60! 80! 100! 120! 140!
Paper!Chemical!
Plastics and Rubber!Electrical!
Beverage & Tobacco!Fabricated Metals!Petroleum & Coal!
Primary Metals!Machinery!
Food!Transportation!
Computer & Electronic!
Capacity UtilizationComparing Durable and Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Industries
Nondurable
Durable
21
Data source:G17 Report, U.S. Federal ReserveFigures reflect end of calendar year 2012 results
Considered a leading indicator of inflation and future capital spending. Shows the level at which U.S. industry is performing relative to potential.
65%! 70%! 75%! 80%! 85%!
Beverage & Tobacco!Food!
Plastics and Rubber!Transportation!Primary Metals!
Computer & Electronic!Chemical!
Machinery!Paper!
Electrical!Fabricated Metals!Petroleum & Coal!
THE MASHBURN REPORT
August 2013
Current State of America’s Durable Goods Manufacturing Sector
22
Durable goods are products designed to last at least three years; bigger ticket items like automobiles, televisions, and refrigerators. These products account for roughly 15% of consumer spending.
Industries that fall under the durable goods manufacturing sector umbrella:
Sub-market NAICS2012 Shareper value of shipments
Key words
Wood Products 321 3% sawmills, veneer, truss, wood containers, pre-fab
Nonmetallic Mineral Products 327 4% clay, pottery, glass, cement, gypsum
Primary Metals 331 11% iron and steel mills, aluminum, foundries
Fabricated Metal Products 332 13% forging, stamping, cutlery, hand tools, boilers, tanks
Machinery 333 15% agriculture, mining, industrial
Computer & Electronic Products 334 13% computer, peripheral, communications, audio, video
Electrical Equipment & Appliances 335 5% lighting, household appliance, electrical equipment
Transportation 336 29% motor vehicle and parts, aerospace, railroad, ships
Furniture & Related Products 337 2% household and office furniture, kitchen cabinets, window treatments
Miscellaneous 339 5% medical equipment and supplies, jewelry, silverware, sporting goods
23
Market SegmentationAmerica’s Durable Goods Manufacturing
Takeaway:‣ Over 70% of the durable goods manufacturing market share consists
of transportation, computer & electronics, machinery, and fabricated metals. Transportation garners #1 share for all three metrics.
By Total Salesper the QFR report
By Value of Shipmentsper the M3 report
By Employment Levelper the Employment Situation report
Transportation31%
Computer &Electronic
19%Machinery
14%
FabricatedMetal10%
All Other26%
Transportation28%
Computer &Electronic
13%
Machinery15%
FabricatedMetal13%
All Other31%
Transportation20%
Computer &Electronic
14%
Machinery15%
FabricatedMetal19%
All Other32%
24
•$3.1 trillion in annual sales•Sales and costs up, and net
income down•More cash on hand, greater
investment level•Total assets up 6.5%, total
liabilities up 7.4%•Stockholders’ equity up 5.4%
2012 vs. 2011Year Over Year Summary
25Raw data extracted from the June 2013 Quarterly Report, produced by the U.S. Census Bureau
Employment Situation - Employment LevelDurable Goods Manufacturing Sector, USAThe Employment Situation Report, produced monthly by the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), is the source of raw data used to complete this section of the Mashburn Report. The BLS surveys approximately 145,000 businesses and agencies that span over 500,000 U.S. worksites to determine employment, hours, and earnings figures at detailed industry levels. Note the key figures and charts below:
2.3%3-year cumulative annual growth rate in employment level for the durable
goods manufacturing sector.
7.5 millionEmployment level as of May 2013 for the durable goods
manufacturing sector.
12.3 millionThe employment level of the durable goods manufacturing
sector in June 1979.
Employment Level, 2003-2012Durable Goods Manufacturing Sector
6,900!
7,400!
7,900!
8,400!
8,900!
CY 2003!
CY 2004!
CY 2005!
CY 2006!
CY 2007!
CY 2008!
CY 2009!
CY 2010!
CY 2011!
CY 2012!
in th
ousa
nds!
Employment Level, since 1940Durable Goods Manufacturing Sector
2010
Now
19405,000!
6,000!
7,000!
8,000!
9,000!
10,000!
11,000!
12,000!
in th
ousa
nds!
26
Employment Situation - Hours & EarningsDurable Goods Manufacturing Sector, USAThe Employment Situation Report, produced monthly by the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), is the source of raw data used to complete this section of the Mashburn Report. The BLS surveys approximately 145,000 businesses and agencies that span over 500,000 U.S. worksites to determine employment, hours, and earnings figures at detailed industry levels. Note the key figures and charts below:
41.1Average number of hours worked by durable goods manufacturing employees.
$25.55Average hourly earnings by
durable goods manufacturing employees in May 2013.
$21.94Average hourly earnings by
durable goods manufacturing employees - after inflation.
38.5!
39.0!
39.5!
40.0!
40.5!
41.0!
CY 2006!
CY 2007!
CY 2008!
CY 2009!
CY 2010!
CY 2011!
CY 2012!
HY 2013!
Average Weekly Hours WorkedDurable Goods Manufacturing Sector
$20.00!
$21.00!
$22.00!
$23.00!
$24.00!
$25.00!
$26.00!
CY 2006! CY 2007! CY 2008! CY 2009! CY 2010! CY 2011! CY 2012! HY 2013!
USD,
per
hou
r!
Average Hourly Earnings! Average Hourly Earnings, adjusted for inflation!
Average Hourly EarningsDurable Goods Manufacturing Sector
27
Return per EmployeeDurable Goods Manufacturing Sector, USA
47%Increase in value of shipments per employee since CY 2003
61%Increase in net sales per employee since CY 2003
$230!$250!$270!$290!$310!$330!$350!$370!$390!$410!$430!
CY 2003!
CY 2004!
CY 2005!
CY 2006!
CY 2007!
CY 2008!
CY 2009!
CY 2010!
CY 2011!
CY 2012!
$, in
thou
sand
s!
Net Sales per Employee! Value of Shipments per Employee!
How Long ... ... can manufacturing companies
sustain these increases?28
Job Openings, Hires, & Separations, JOLTS ReportDurable Goods Manufacturing Sector, USA
Job Openings IndexSeparations IndexHires Index
CY 2012
CY 2003
-43%Decrease in total separations
from 2003 to 2012
-29%Decrease in new hires from 2003 to 2012
45%Increase in job openings
from 2003 to 2012.
29
Reasons for Job Separations, JOLTS ReportDurable Goods Manufacturing Sector, USA
I Quit!Job quits have nearly doubled
since the recession ended
0%!
20%!
40%!
60%!
80%!
100%!
CY 2003!
CY 2004!
CY 2005!
CY 2006!
CY 2007!
CY 2008!
CY 2009!
CY 2010!
CY 2011!
CY 2012!
Perc
ent o
f Tot
al Jo
b Se
para
tions
!
Layoffs & Discharges! Other Separations! Quits!
30
National Output & Inventories - New OrdersDurable Goods Manufacturing Sector, USANew orders is a great indicator of durable goods manufacturing sector growth and productivity. This measurement is tracked and published on a monthly basis by the U.S. Census Bureau in the Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3) report. Statistical data from the M3 report covers current economic conditions and indicators of future production commitments in the manufacturing sector.
$2.6 trillionAmount of new durable goods manufacturing orders - per the
M3 report - in CY 2012.
12.5%3-year compound annual growth
rate (CAGR) for new durable goods manufacturing orders.
3-year CAGR for new durable goods manufacturing orders - excluding
transportation & defense industries.
7.0%
$1.0!$1.2!$1.4!$1.6!$1.8!$2.0!$2.2!$2.4!$2.6!$2.8!
CY 2003!
CY 2004!
CY 2005!
CY 2006!
CY 2007!
CY 2008!
CY 2009!
CY 2010!
CY 2011!
CY 2012!
USD,
in tr
illion
s!
New Orders! New Orders minus Transportation & Defense!
New OrdersDurable Goods Manufacturing Sector
New orders reflect the very latest demand and a surge in orders will keep factories busy.
But one large military or aircraft order can inflate the new orders metric - which is why
it’s important to track new orders that exclude defense and/or transportation.
31
National Output & Inventories - M3 Report VariablesDurable Goods Manufacturing Sector, USAIn addition to new orders, the M3 report also features statistics for unfilled orders, value of shipments, and inventory levels. ‣ Shipments are products that have been ordered and that are being delivered right now.‣ Unfilled orders signify backlog that can keep factories busy. An increase is good as long as the factory can fill the orders without
chronic delays that create unhappy customers.‣ When factory output exceeds orders, inventories can balloon and lead to corporate financial headaches. A buildup of unwanted
goods can be quite costly. As inventory mounts, plants can be forced to slash output, shut down plants, and layoff employees.
$2.7 trillionValue of durable goods
manufacturing shipments - per the M3 report - in CY 2012.
11.7 trillionValue of durable goods
manufacturing unfilled orders - per the M3 report - in CY 2012.
374 billionCY 2012 value of total
inventories within the durable goods manufacturing sector.
2.6!
3.1!
3.6!
4.1!
4.6!
5.1!
5.6!
Jan-
03!
Jun-
03!
Nov-
03!
Apr-0
4!Se
p-04
!Fe
b-05
!Ju
l-05!
Dec-
05!
May-
06!
Oct-
06!
Mar-0
7!Au
g-07
!Ja
n-08
!Ju
n-08
!No
v-08
!Ap
r-09!
Sep-
09!
Feb-
10!
Jul-1
0!De
c-10
!Ma
y-11
!Oc
t-11
!Ma
r-12!
Aug-
12!
Jan-
13!
Ratio
!
Unfilled Orders to Value of Shipments Ratio!
Recession
0.4!0.5!0.5!0.6!0.6!0.7!0.7!0.8!0.8!
Jan-
03!
Jun-
03!
Nov-
03!
Apr-0
4!Se
p-04
!Fe
b-05
!Ju
l-05!
Dec-
05!
May-
06!
Oct-0
6!Ma
r-07!
Aug-
07!
Jan-
08!
Jun-
08!
Nov-
08!
Apr-0
9!Se
p-09
!Fe
b-10
!Ju
l-10!
Dec-
10!
May-
11!
Oct-1
1!Ma
r-12!
Aug-
12!
Jan-
13!
Ratio
!
Value of Shipments to Total Inventories Ratio!
Recession
32
Total inventories represent the value of the end-of-month stocks regardless of stage of fabrication (whether in the form of purchased materials and supplies, work in process, or finished goods). These inventories are valued at cost using any valuation method other than LIFO. Inventories associated with the non-manufacturing activities of your company are excluded.‣ Materials-and-Supplies Inventory - All unprocessed raw and semi-fabricated commodities and supplies for which you have title.‣ Work-in-Process Inventory - Accumulated costs of all commodities undergoing fabrication within your plants and long-term contracts
where the inventory costs are for undelivered items and the value of work done that has not been reported in sales.‣ Finished Good Inventory - The value of all completed products ready for shipment and all inventories and goods bought for resale
requiring no further processing or assembly. No accumulation of finished goods inventories should occur with long-term contracts unless the total sales receipts are not recorded until the time of delivery.
National Output & Inventories - InventoriesDurable Goods Manufacturing Sector, USA
Percentage of Total Inventories by Stage of CompletionDurable Goods Manufacturing Sector, USA
26%!28%!30%!32%!34%!36%!38%!40%!42%!
Mar-0
3!Se
p-03
!Ma
r-04!
Sep-
04!
Mar-0
5!Se
p-05
!Ma
r-06!
Sep-
06!
Mar-0
7!Se
p-07
!Ma
r-08!
Sep-
08!
Mar-0
9!Se
p-09
!Ma
r-10!
Sep-
10!
Mar-1
1!Se
p-11
!Ma
r-12!
Sep-
12!
Mar-1
3!
Perc
ent o
f Tot
al In
vent
ories
!
Materials & Supplies! Work in Process! Finished Goods! 33
National Output & Inventories - Industrial Productivity (IP) & Capacity Utilization (CU)Durable Goods Manufacturing Sector, USA
The Federal Reserve Board produces a monthly report of production and capacity utilization indexes for the industrial sector. The industrial sector, per the Federal Reserve Board, covers manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities. The industrial
sector, combined with the construction industry, accounts for the bulk of the variation in national output over the course of the business cycle. Ongoing production and capacity measurement helps illuminate structural developments in the economy.
The production index measures real output and is expressed as a percentage of real output in a base year, currently 2007. On a monthly basis, the individual indexes of industrial production are constructed from two main types of source data: (1) output measured in physical units and (2) data on inputs to the production process, from which output is inferred. Data on physical products, such as tons of steel or barrels of oil, are typically obtained from private trade associations and from government agencies; data of this type are used to estimate monthly industrial production wherever possible and appropriate.
The Federal Reserve Board constructs estimates of capacity and capacity utilization for industries in
manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities. For a given industry, the capacity utilization rate is equal to an output index (seasonally adjusted) divided by a capacity index. The Federal Reserve Board's capacity indexes attempt to capture the concept of sustainable maximum output-the greatest level of output a plant can maintain within the framework of a realistic work schedule, after factoring in normal downtime and assuming sufficient availability of inputs to operate the capital in place. 34
IP & CU Index ComparisonDurable Goods Manufacturing Sector, USA
55!
65!
75!
85!
95!
105!
Mar-0
3!Au
g-03
!Ja
n-04
!Ju
n-04
!No
v-04
!Ap
r-05!
Sep-
05!
Feb-
06!
Jul-0
6!De
c-06
!Ma
y-07
!Oc
t-07
!Ma
r-08!
Aug-
08!
Jan-
09!
Jun-
09!
Nov-
09!
Apr-1
0!Se
p-10
!Fe
b-11
!Ju
l-11!
Dec-
11!
May-
12!
Oct-
12!
Mar-1
3!
Inde
x, 2
007!
Industrial Productivity! Capacity Utilization!
Import and Export IndexesDurable Goods Manufacturing Sector, USA
Transportation Equipment
81!
91!
101!
111!
121!
131!
CY 2006! CY 2007! CY 2008! CY 2009! CY 2010! CY 2011! CY 2012!
Export Index! Import Index!
81!
91!
101!
111!
121!
131!
CY 2006! CY 2007! CY 2008! CY 2009! CY 2010! CY 2011! CY 2012!
Export Index! Import Index!
Computer & Electronic Products
81!
91!
101!
111!
121!
131!
CY 2006! CY 2007! CY 2008! CY 2009! CY 2010! CY 2011! CY 2012!
Export Index! Import Index!
Machinery Manufacturing
81!
91!
101!
111!
121!
131!
CY 2006! CY 2007! CY 2008! CY 2009! CY 2010! CY 2011! CY 2012!
Export Index! Import Index!
Fabricated Metal Products
35
Producer Price Indexes, PPI
The Producer Price Indexes (PPIs) are a family of indexes that measure changes in the selling prices received by domestic producers of goods and services. The PPI sample includes over 25,000 establishments providing approximately 100,000 price quotations per month for products specified through a process called disaggregation. Producer Price Indexes are usually made available during the second full week of the month following the reference date.
The PPI family of indexes consists of several major classification systems, each with its own structure, history, and uses. However, indexes in all classification systems draw from the same pool of price information provided to the BLS by cooperating company reporters. The three most important classification structures are (1) industry, (2) commodity, and (3) Stage of Process (SOP). ‣ A Producer Price Index for an industry is a measure of changes in prices
received for the industry’s net output sold outside the industry. Measures—or indexes—of price change classified by industry form the basis of the program. These indexes reflect the price trends of a constant set of goods and services that together represent the total output of an industry.‣ The commodity classification structure of the PPI organizes products by
similarity of end use or material composition, regardless of whether the products are classified as primary or secondary in their industry of origin.‣ PPI are calculated for the three stages of process; crude, intermediate, and
finished goods. Finished goods are defined as commodities that are ready for sale to the final-demand user—either an individual consumer or a business firm. Intermediate materials, supplies, and components consists partly of already processed commodities that require further processing. Crude materials for further processing are defined as unprocessed commodities not sold directly to consumers.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statisticswww.bls.gov
36
Producer Price Indexes, PPIDurable Goods Manufacturing Sector, USA
Transportation Equipment
113.0!
113.5!
114.0!
114.5!
115.0!
115.5!
116.0!
116.5!
PPI!
Jan - Jun ’12 Jan - Jun ’13
Computer & Electronic Product
88.4!
88.6!
88.8!
89.0!
89.2!
89.4!
89.6!
89.8!
90.0!
PPI!
Jan - Jun ’12 Jan - Jun ’13
1.3%Increase in PPI when
comparing 2013 versus 2012
115.6Most recent PPI,
15.6% increase vs. Dec ’03
-0.3%Increase in PPI when
comparing 2013 versus 2012
89.5Most recent PPI,
10.5% decrease vs. Dec ’03 37
Producer Price Indexes, PPIDurable Goods Manufacturing Sector, USA
Machinery Manufacturing
123.5!
124.0!
124.5!
125.0!
125.5!
126.0!
126.5!
127.0!
127.5!
128.0!
128.5!
PPI!
Jan - Jun ’12 Jan - Jun ’13
1.4%Increase in PPI when
comparing 2013 versus 2012
127.6Most recent PPI,
27.6% increase vs. Dec ’03
Fabricated Metal Products
183.5!
184.0!
184.5!
185.0!
185.5!
186.0!
186.5!
187.0!
PPI!
Jan - Jun ’12 Jan - Jun ’13
0.5%Increase in PPI when
comparing 2013 versus 2012
186.3Most recent PPI,
86.3% increase vs. Dec ’03 38
The Current State of America’s Primary Metals Manufacturing Market
39
Primary Metals ManufacturingNAICS 331
WORLDWIDE OVERVIEWCompanies in this industry engage in smelting and refining of ferrous and nonferrous metals and include iron and steel mills, rolled steel shape manufacturers, aluminum producers, and copper foundries. The global primary metals manufacturing industry generates annual revenue of more than $3 trillion. China leads all nations in crude steel and aluminum production by a wide margin. Other top steel producers include Japan, the US, India, Russia, and South Korea. Other major aluminum suppliers include Canada, Russia, and Australia. Modest growth is forecast for the United States over the next two years. Key growth drivers include durable goods orders and nonresidential construction spending.Demand comes largely from manufacturers of durable goods such as motor vehicles, machinery, containers, and construction steel. The profitability of individual companies depends largely on efficient operations, because most products are commodities sold based on price. Big companies have large economies of scale in production. Accordingly, most producers of secondary products buy raw metal from the large producers. Small companies can compete by serving regional markets or producing specialty products.SOURCE: Hoovers
$3 trillionAnnual revenue generated by all global primary metals
manufacturers
16%Approximate U.S. share of worldwide primary metals
manufacturing market
3,500Number of United States
primary metals manufacturing companies
40
Primary Metal ManufacturingNAICS 331
+2.7%
$296bUSA 2012
11%2013 share of durable goods
manufacturing market
2013 vs. 2012Jan-July new orders
New Orders
Market Share
Growth Rate
Iron and Steel Mills, Ferroalloy Manufacturing
Steel Product MFG, from Purchased Steel‣ Pipe & tube‣ Rolled steel‣ Steel wiring
Alumina & Aluminum Production & Processing‣ Alumina refining‣ primary aluminum
production‣ Smelting & alloying‣ Sheeting, plating, rolling,
drawing, & extrusion
Nonferrous Metal (Except Aluminum) Production & Processing‣ Smelting & refining‣ Copper rolling, drawing,
extruding, & alloying
Foundries‣ Ferrous metal‣ iron‣ Steel‣ Nonferrous metal‣ Nonferrous metal die-casting
41
Primary Metal ManufacturingNew Orders by Sub-Industry
$0!
$20!
$40!
$60!
$80!
$100!
$120!
$140!
CY 2003!
CY 2004!
CY 2005!
CY 2006!
CY 2007!
CY 2008!
CY 2009!
CY 2010!
CY 2011!
CY 2012!
USD,
in b
illion
s!
Aluminum & Nonferrous Ferrous Metal Foundries Iron & Steel Mills, Ferro Alloy
+2.4%2013 vs. 2012
new orders
$296bUSA 2012
New Orders
Growth Rate
42
Primary Metal ManufacturingMarket Share per New Orders
Raw data extracted from the June 2013 M3 Report, produced by the U.S. Census Bureau
Aluminum & Nonferrous
52%Iron & Steel Mills,
Ferro Alloy & Steel41%
*Ferrous Metal
**Foundries7%
$151bJan - June ’13
$296bUSA 2012
New Orders
New Orders
43
*Ferrous metals contain appreciable amounts of iron.
**A foundry is a factory that produces metal castings.
Primary Metal ManufacturingEmployment Level as of June 2013
Raw data extracted from the June 2013 Employment Situation Report, produced by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
0! 20! 40! 60! 80! 100! 120! 140!
Nonferrous Production & Processing!
Alumina & Aluminum Production!
Steel Product MFG from Purchased Steel!
Iron & Steel Mills, Ferro Alloy!
Foundries!
Employment Level, in thousands!
-0.3%
0.9%
Growth Rate2013 vs. 2012
-2.6%
-2.8%
-6.1%
394kJune 2013
Employment Level
44
Primary Metal ManufacturingEmployment Situation Index Comparison
+3.9%
-15.1%Since March ’06
+2.2%
Employee Level
Since March ’06
Weekly Hours
Since March ’06
Hourly Earnings
Hourly Earnings IndexWeekly Hours IndexEmployment Level Index June 2013
March 2006
45
66 106
99.1
Industrial Production49% 84%
73.7
Capacity Utilization
-3.3% 11.2%
6.3%
Operating Profit-4.2% 12.6%
6.7%
Return on Sales
-2.0% 10.4%
5.2%
Return on Assets57 86
66.3
Cash Cycle, days
0.83 1.51Quick Ratio
1.37
1.42 2.25
2.18
Current Ratio
Primary Metal Manufacturing Dashboard
46
Mashburn Ranking: 12/12
50%
103.0 196.5
163.0
Import Index102.2 187.8
158.9
Export Index
1.34 2.39
1.42
Inventory to Shipment Ratio
1.25 1.95
1.43
Unfilled Order to Shipment Ratio
117.7 233.5
196.9
Producer Price Index347k 496k
392k
Employment Level
$284k $655k
$608k
Net Sales per Employee$297k $758kValue of Shipments
per Employee
$758k
47
Primary Metal Manufacturing DashboardMashburn Ranking: 12/12
50%
2012 vs. 2011Year Over Year Summary
Raw data extracted from the June 2013 Quarterly Report, produced by the U.S. Census Bureau
•$242 billion in annual sales, down 1.2% from prior year
•Operating income and net income significantly down
•Less cash, flat investment level•Inventories up 5.4%•Net working capital up almost 5%
48
Primary Metals ManufacturingM3 Report Major Index Comparison, Jan 2012 - May 2013
+4.6%
-6%Drop in both unfilled
orders and total inventories since Jan ’12
-4.6%Decrease in inventories-to-
shipments ratio
Rise in new orders since Jan ’12
49
Unfilled Orders IndexNew Orders IndexValue of Shipments IndexTotal Inventories Index
Jul ’13
Jan ’12
Primary Metal ManufacturingProducer Price Index by Sub-industry, Index July ’09
Steel MFG from purchased steelNonferrous production & processing
Iron & steel mills, ferro alloy Aluminum production
Raw data extracted from the July 2013 Producer Price Index Report, produced by the U.S. Census Bureau
June 2013
July 2009
Post Recession
50
Primary Metal ManufacturingImport & Export Price Index Comparison
110!
120!
130!
140!
150!
160!
170!
180!
190!
CY 2006! CY 2007! CY 2008! CY 2009! CY 2010! CY 2011! CY 2012!
Import Index! Export Index!
51
The Current State of America’s Fabricated Metal Product
Manufacturing Market
52
Fabricated Metal Product ManufacturingNAICS 332
WORLDWIDE OVERVIEWCompanies in this industry transform purchased metals into intermediate or end-use products by forging, stamping, bending, forming, welding, machining, and assembly. Because of the special manufacturing processes involved for individual parts, most companies make a limited range of products. Globally, the fabricated metal product manufacturing industry generates nearly $2 trillion in annual revenue. Top producers include the US, China, Japan, Germany, Italy, and Canada. The US fabricated metal product manufacturing industry includes about 55,000 companies with more than $325 billion in combined annual revenue and is expected to see moderate growth over the next two years. Key growth drivers include gains in US industrial production and rising demand for durable goods.Demand is driven largely by the needs of other industrial companies and is therefore linked to economic growth. The profitability of individual companies depends on technical expertise and efficient manufacturing.SOURCE: Hoovers
$2 trillionAnnual revenue generated by
all global fabricated metal products manufacturers
16%Approximate U.S. share of worldwide fabricated metal
products manufacturing market
55,000Number of United States fabricated metal products manufacturing companies
53
Fabricated Metal Product ManufacturingNAICS 332
-12.1%
$348bUSA 2012
13%2013 share of durable goods
manufacturing market
2013 vs. 2012new orders
New Orders
Market Share
Growth Rate
Forging & Stamping‣ Iron & steel forging‣ Nonferrous forging‣ Roll forming
Cutlery & Handtool‣ Cutlery & handtool‣ Metal kitchen cookware
& utensils‣ Saw blade
Boiler, Tank, & Shipping Container‣ Power boilers, heat exchangers‣ Metal tanks‣ Metal cans & boxes
Architectural & Structural‣ Plate work‣ Ornamental‣ Metal windows & doors‣ Sheet metal
Hardware Manufacturing
Machine Shops, Turned Products‣ Machine shops‣ Turned products‣ Screws, nuts, & bolts
Coating, Engraving, Heat Treating
Other Fabricated Metal Product‣ Metal, industrial, & fluid power valve‣ Plumbing fixture & pipe fitting‣ Ball & roller bearing‣ Guns & ammunition
54
Fabricated Metal Product ManufacturingMarket Share per Revenue
Data Source: Hoovers
Forging, Stamping, Boilers, & Tanks
34%
Architectural & Structural
22%
Machine Shops12% Hardware
9%
All Other23%
Metal Valves & Pipefitting
9%
Coating, Engraving, & Heat Treating
8%
Cutlery, Hand Tools, & Ammo
6%
55
Fabricated Metal Product ManufacturingEmployment Level by Sub-Industry
0! 50! 100! 150! 200! 250! 300! 350! 400!
Hardware!Cutlery & Hand Tools!
Spring & Wire Products!Boilers & Tanks!
Forging & Stamping!Coating & Engraving!
All Other!Architectural & Structural!
Machine Shops!
Employee Level, in thousands!
0.1%
2.1%
2.8%
1.0%
2.6%
-0.6%
0.0%
-2.5%
4.8%
Growth Rate2013 vs. 2012
1,437kEmployment LevelJune ’13
56
Fabricated Metal Product ManufacturingEmployment Situation Index Comparison
+7.3%
-7.1%Since March ’06
-0.7%
Employee Level
Since March ’06
Weekly Hours
Since March ’06
Hourly EarningsHourly Earnings IndexWeekly Hours IndexEmployment Level Index
June 2013
March 2006
57
2012 vs. 2011Year Over Year Summary
•$745 billion in annual sales, up 6.3%
•Op income and net income up•More cash on hand, less
investment level•Every balance sheet variable
was up in 2013
Raw data extracted from the June 2013 Quarterly Report, produced by the U.S. Census Bureau 58
Fabricated Metal Product ManufacturingIncome Statement Index Comparison
5.2x
45%Amount of net sales increase
from CY ’03 to CY ’12
2.1xOperating income has grown at a rate of 2.1 times faster
than has revenue
Net income has grown at a rate of 5.2 times faster
than has revenue
Operating Income IndexNet Sales IndexNet Income Index
CY 2012
CY 2003
59
72 102
94.6
Industrial Production62% 86%
84.6
Capacity Utilization
3.7% 10.5%
10.2%
Operating Profit
3.6% 10.6%
10.0%
Return on Assets65 88
75
Cash Cycle, days
1.11 1.45Quick Ratio
1.27
1.68 2.16
1.96
Current Ratio
Fabricated Metal Product Dashboard
60
2.2% 11.0%
9.7%
Return on Sales
Mashburn Ranking: 5/12
72%
$167k $240k
$240k
Value of Shipments per Employee
$138k $208k
$208k
Net Sales per Employee
101.3 130.7
128.2
Import Index102.0 132.3
131.4
Export Index
1.41 1.83
1.64
Inventory to Shipment Ratio
2.06 3.12
3.12
Unfilled Order to Shipment Ratio
132.7 186.3
186.3
Producer Price Index1,256k 1,568k
1,437k
Employment Level 61
Fabricated Metal Product DashboardMashburn Ranking: 5/12
72%
Producer Price Indexes, PPIFabricated Metal Product Manufacturing
Fabricated Metal Products
183.5!
184.0!
184.5!
185.0!
185.5!
186.0!
186.5!
187.0!
PPI!
Jan - Jun ’12 Jan - Jun ’13
0.5%Increase in PPI when
comparing 2013 versus 2012
186.3Most recent PPI,
86.3% increase vs. Dec ’03
62
Fabricated Metal Product ManufacturingProducer Price Index by Sub-industry, Index July ’09
Forging & Stamping Machine shops Boiler, tank, shipping container Architectural, structural
Raw data extracted from the July 2013 Producer Price Index Report, produced by the U.S. Census Bureau
June 2013
July 2009
Post Recession
63
Fabricated Metals ManufacturingM3 Report Major Index Comparison, Jan 2012 - May 2013
Unfilled Orders IndexNew Orders IndexValue of Shipments IndexTotal Inventories Index
May 2013Jan 2012
2.1%
14.6%Increase in unfilled orders index since January 2012
Flat0.3% increase in value of
shipments over last 17 months
Increase in both new orders and total inventories since 1/12
64
The Current State of America’s Machinery Manufacturing Market
65
Machinery ManufacturingNAICS 333
WORLDWIDE OVERVIEWCompanies in this industry manufacture various kinds of machinery used in agriculture, mining, construction, or manufacturing. The global machinery manufacturing industry generates more than $2 trillion in annual revenue. Top producers include China, Germany, Japan, the US, and South Korea. Industry experts are forecasting low growth over the next two years.
Demand for machinery depends on overall industrial activity and on the health of sectors such as agriculture, construction, manufacturing, oil and gas exploration and production, and power generation. The profitability of individual companies depends on engineering expertise and efficient production. Large companies have economies of scale in purchasing. Small companies can compete effectively by specializing.
SOURCE: Hoovers
$2 trillionAnnual revenue generated
by all global machinery manufacturers
19%Approximate United States
share of worldwide machinery manufacturing market
20,000Number of United States machinery manufacturing
companies
66
Machinery ManufacturingNAICS 333
Agriculture, Construction, & Mining Machinery‣ Agriculture & farm‣ Lawn & garden‣ Construction‣ Mining, oil & gas
Industrial Machinery‣ Industrial‣ Food product‣ Semiconductor‣ Wood, paper, & prinitng
Commercial & Service Industry Machinery‣ Optical instrument & lens‣ Photograph & photocopy
Ventilation, Heating, Air Conditioning, & Commercial Refrigeration Machinery
Engine, Turbine, & Power Equipment
Metalworking Machinery‣ Industrial mold‣ Die & tool‣ Cutting & machine tools‣ Rolling mill
Other General Purpose Machinery‣ Pumps & compressors‣ Material handling‣ Elevators‣ Conveyors‣ etc.
67
6.3%
$384bUSA 2012
15%2013 share of durable goods
manufacturing market
2013 vs. 2012new orders
New Orders
Market Share
Growth Rate
Machinery ManufacturingMarket Share per Value of Shipments
Raw data extracted from the June 2013 M3 Report, produced by the U.S. Census Bureau
All Other Machinery31%
Agricultural, Construction, &
Mining27%
Power Transmission
12%
Ventilation, Heat, Air, & Refrigeration
11%
Industrial Machinery
10%
Metalworking Machinery
9%
68
Machinery ManufacturingMarket Share per Employment Level
Raw data extracted from the June 2013 Employment Situation Report, produced by
the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Other General Purpose Machinery
23%
Agriculture, Construction, & Mining
Machinery22%
Metalworking Machinery
16%
HVAC & Commercial Refrigeration
12%
Industrial Machinery9%
Turbine & Power Transmission
9%
Commercial & Service Industry
8%
69
Machinery ManufacturingEmployment Level as of June 2013
Raw data extracted from the June 2013 Employment Situation Report, produced by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
0! 50! 100! 150! 200! 250! 300!
Commercial & Service Industry!
Turbine & Power!
Industrial!
HVAC & Commercial Refrigeration!
Metalworking!
Agriculture, Construction, & Mining!
All Other!
Employment Level, in thousands!
0.9%
Growth Rate2013 vs. 2012
-2.1%
1.2%
0.2%
2.6%
-4.3%
-3.8%
70
Machinery ManufacturingEmployment Situation Index Comparison
Hourly Earnings IndexWeekly Hours IndexEmployment Level Index
June 2013
March 2006
71
9.9%
-6.9%Since March ’06
Flat
Employee Level
Since March ’06
Weekly Hours
Since March ’06
Hourly Earnings
Raw data extracted from the July 2013 Employment Situation Report, produced by the U.S. Census Bureau
Machinery ManufacturingEmployee Situation Indexes by Sub-industry
Raw data extracted from the July 2013 Employment Situation Report, produced by the U.S. Census Bureau
Agriculture, construction, mining Metalworking HVAC & commercial refrigeration Industrial
Employee Level Index
CY 2013
CY 2003
Hourly Earnings Index
CY 2013CY 2006
72
2012 vs. 2011Year Over Year Summary
•$432 billion in annual sales•Operating and net income up
over 13% versus CY 2011•Less cash on hand, slightly
greater investment level•Inventory is largest contributor
to rise in current assets•Stockholders’ equity rose
significantly in 2012
Raw data extracted from the June 2013 Quarterly Report, produced by the U.S. Census Bureau
73
Machinery ManufacturingIncome Statement Index Comparison
6.4x
74%Amount of net sales increase
from CY ’03 to CY ’12
3.2xOperating income has grown at a rate of 3.2 times faster
than has revenue
Net income has grown at a rate of 6.4 times faster
than has revenue
Operating Income IndexNet Sales IndexNet Income Index
CY 2012
CY 2003
74
2.3% 7.7%
6.8%
Return on Assets28 77
77
Cash Cycle, days
2.1% 13.3%
8.9%
Return on Sales2.7% 10.4%
7.4%
Operating Profit
73 103
103.3
Industrial Production60% 84%
81.1
Capacity Utilization
0.74 1.11Quick Ratio
0.87
1.16 1.55
1.38
Current Ratio
75
Machinery Manufacturing DashboardMashburn Ranking: 4/12
73%
$227k $361k
$361k
Value of Shipments per Employee
$216k $371k
$371k
Net Sales per Employee
100.0 122.4
121.5
Import Index100.0 122.0
122.0
Export Index
1.66 2.32
1.90
Inventory to Shipment Ratio
2.22 4.60
3.31
Unfilled Order to Shipment Ratio
121.4 135.3
135.2
Producer Price Index975k 1,198k
1,100k
Employment Level 76
Machinery Manufacturing DashboardMashburn Ranking: 4/12
73%
Producer Price Indexes, PPIMachinery Manufacturing Sector, USA
Machinery Manufacturing
123.5!
124.0!
124.5!
125.0!
125.5!
126.0!
126.5!
127.0!
127.5!
128.0!
128.5!
PPI!
Jan - Jun ’12 Jan - Jun ’13
1.4%Increase in PPI when
comparing 2013 versus 2012
127.6Most recent PPI,
27.6% increase vs. Dec ’03
77
Machinery ManufacturingProducer Price Index by Sub-industry, Index July ’09
Agriculture, construction, mining Metalworking HVAC & commercial refrigeration Industrial
Raw data extracted from the July 2013 Producer Price Index Report, produced by the U.S. Census Bureau
June 2013July 2009
Post Recession
78
Machinery ManufacturingM3 Report Index Comparison
Unfilled Orders IndexNew Orders IndexValue of Shipments IndexTotal Inventories Index
Q2 2013
Q1 2012
79
2.8%
-9.3%Q2 ’13 vs. Q1 ’12
+8.8%Q2 ’13 vs. Q1 ’12
Unfilled Orders
Value of Shipments
Q2 ’13 vs. Q1 ’12
New Orders
80
Agricultural, Construction, and MiningValue of Shipments
12.4%
$106bCY 2012
27.4%2013 share of machinery
manufacturing market
2013 vs 2012
Market Size
Market Share
Growth Rate$7,800!
$8,300!
$8,800!
$9,300!
$9,800!
Jan-
12!
Feb-
12!
Mar-1
2!Ap
r-12!
May-
12!
Jun-
12!
Jul-1
2!Au
g-12
!Se
p-12
!Oc
t-12
!No
v-12
!De
c-12
!Ja
n-13
!Fe
b-13
!Ma
r-13!
Apr-1
3!Ma
y-13
!
USD
milli
ons!
Machinery Manufacturing
Turbines, Generators, & Power TransmissionValue of Shipments
$3,400!
$3,600!
$3,800!
$4,000!
$4,200!
$4,400!
$4,600!
$4,800!
$5,000!
Jan-
12!
Feb-
12!
Mar-1
2!Ap
r-12!
May-
12!
Jun-
12!
Jul-1
2!Au
g-12
!Se
p-12
!Oc
t-12
!No
v-12
!De
c-12
!Ja
n-13
!Fe
b-13
!Ma
r-13!
Apr-1
3!Ma
y-13
!
USD
milli
ons!
81Machinery Manufacturing
-1.7%
$48bCY 2012
+11.5%2013 share of machinery
manufacturing market
2013 vs 2012
Market Size
Market Share
Growth Rate
Industrial Machinery ManufacturingValue of Shipments
$2,700!
$2,900!
$3,100!
$3,300!
$3,500!
$3,700!
$3,900!
Jan-
12!
Feb-
12!
Mar-1
2!Ap
r-12!
May-
12!
Jun-
12!
Jul-1
2!Au
g-12
!Se
p-12
!Oc
t-12
!No
v-12
!De
c-12
!Ja
n-13
!Fe
b-13
!Ma
r-13!
Apr-1
3!Ma
y-13
!
USD
milli
ons!
82Machinery Manufacturing
+16.4%
$40bCY 2012
+10.5%2013 share of machinery
manufacturing market
2013 vs 2012
Market Size
Market Share
Growth Rate
The Current State of America’s Computer & Electronic Product
Manufacturing Market
83
Computer & Electronic Product ManufacturingNAICS 334
WORLDWIDE OVERVIEWCompanies in this industry manufacture computers, computer peripherals, telecommunications, audio and video, semiconductor, measurement and control, and other related equipment. The global computer & electronic product (C&EP) manufacturing industry generates more than $2 trillion in annual revenue. Top producers include China, USA, and Germany. Industry experts are forecasting moderate growth over the next two years.
Demand across the broad CP&E manufacturing sector depends on technological advancement, level of consumer spending, and ever-expanding data storage requirements of both businesses and consumers.
SOURCE: Hoovers
$2 trillionAnnual revenue generated
by all global C&EP manufacturers
16%Approximate United States share of worldwide C&EP manufacturing market
12,500Number of United States
C&EP manufacturing companies
84
Computer & Electronic ProductsNAICS 334
Navigational, Measurement & Control Instruments, and Electromedial‣ Electromedial & electrotherapeutic
apparatus‣ Search, detection, navigational,
aeronautical, & nautical systems‣ Automatic environmental control‣ Industrial process control
instrumentation‣ Laboratory instruments‣ Fluid meters & electricity testing
devices
Magnetic & Optical Media‣ Optical recording‣ Software, compact discs, tapes,
etc.
Computer & Peripherals‣ Electronic computer‣ Computer storage devices‣ Computer terminals
Communications Equipment‣ Telephone Apparatus‣ Radio & TV broadcasting‣ Wireless communications
equipment
Audio & Video Equipment
Semiconductor & Other Electronic Components‣ Semiconductor‣ Printed circuit boards‣ Capacitors, resistors, &
connectors
-0.1%
$262bUSA 2012
10%2013 share of durable goods
manufacturing market
2013 vs. 2012new orders
New Orders
Market Share
Growth Rate
85
Transportation EquipmentValue of Shipments, by sub industry, 2013 (Jan - May)
Computer & Electronic EquipmentMarket Share per Value of Shipments
Computer &Peripheral
8.4%
Navigational, Measurement & Control,
and Electromedial37.4%
Communications14.3%
Semiconductor & All Other
39.9%
Raw data extracted from the June 2013 M3 Report, produced by the U.S. Census Bureau 86
Computer & Electronic ProductsMarket Share per Employment Level
Raw data extracted from the June 2013 Employment Situation Report, produced by
the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Other4%
Communications10%
Computers & Peripheral Equipment
15%
Semiconductors & Electronic
Components35%
Electronic Instruments
37%
87
2012 vs. 2011Year Over Year Summary
Raw data extracted from the June 2013 Quarterly Report, produced by the U.S. Census Bureau
•$597 billion in annual sales, down 1.3% from prior year
•Operating income up substantially, net income down sharply
•Stockholders’ equity rose significantly in 2012 Increased net working capital
88
Computer & Electronic ProductsIncome Statement Index Comparison
Operating Income IndexNet Sales IndexNet Income Index
Dec 2013Dec 2003
Net Sales
4.4x
+134%Dec ’12 to Dec ’03
4.0x4.0 times faster growth rate than has revenue since ’03
4.4 times faster growth rate than has revenue since ’03
Op Income
Net Income
89
57 134
133.6
Industrial Production63% 80%
74.6
Capacity Utilization
0.8% 10.1%
9.2%
Operating Profit3.9% 24.4%
23.2%
Return on Sales
1.3% 9.3%
7.7%
Return on Assets39 63
47
Cash Cycle, days
1.28 1.57Quick Ratio
1.39
1.54 1.86
1.68
Current Ratio
Computer & Electronic Products Dashboard
90
Mashburn Ranking: 6/12
64%
$267k $316k
$314k
Value of Shipments per Employee
$337k $550k
$550k
Net Sales per Employee
81.0 100.0
81.0
Import Index88.6 100.0
88.7
Export Index
1.26 1.71
1.71
Inventory to Shipment Ratio
4.58 7.32
7.31
Unfilled Order to Shipment Ratio
88.9 100.0
89.5
Producer Price Index1,082k 1,413k
1,082k
Employment Level 91
Computer & Electronic Products DashboardMashburn Ranking: 6/12
64%
Computer & Electronic ProductsEmployment Situation Report Major Index Comparison
Hourly Earnings IndexWeekly Hours IndexEmployment Level Index
June 2013
March 2006
-2.2%
-17.2%Since March ’06
+1.0%
Employee Level
Since March ’06
Weekly Hours
Since March ’06
Hourly Earnings
92
Computer & Electronic ProductEmployee Situation Indexes by Sub-industry
Raw data extracted from the July 2013 Employment Situation Report, produced by the U.S. Census Bureau
Hourly Earnings IndexEmployee Level Index
Computer & peripherals Communications Electronic instruments Semiconductors
May 2013
Mar 2006May 2013
Mar 2006
93
PPI versus CPI, Index 2009 -JulyComputer and Peripheral Products
Consumer Price Index, CPI
Producer Price Index, PPI
June 2013
July 2009
-29.4%Decrease since recession
PPI
-17.9%Decrease since recession
CPI
Takeaway: the cost to produce computer & peripheral products has decreased more than the price passed on to consumers has decreased
94
Computer & Electronic ProductsM3 Report Major Index Comparison
Unfilled Orders IndexNew Orders IndexValue of Shipments IndexTotal Inventories Index Q2 2013
Q1 2012
-0.8%
+6.2%Q2 ’13 vs. Q4 ’11
-5.0%Q2 ’13 vs. Q4 ’11
Unfilled Orders
New Orders
Q2 ’13 vs. Q4 ’11
Value of Shipments
95
$9,500!
$10,000!
$10,500!
$11,000!
$11,500!
Jan-
12!
Feb-
12!
Mar-1
2!Ap
r-12!
May-
12!
Jun-
12!
Jul-1
2!Au
g-12
!Se
p-12
!Oc
t-12!
Nov-
12!
Dec-
12!
Jan-
13!
Feb-
13!
Mar-1
3!Ap
r-13!
May-
13!
USD
milli
ons!
-9.4%
$131bCY 2012
37.4%2013 share of C&EP
manufacturing market
2013 vs 2012
Market Size
Market Share
Growth Rate
Computer & Electronic Product (C&EP) Manufacturing
Navigational, Measurement & Control, and ElectromedicalValue of Shipments
96
$3,500!
$3,600!
$3,700!
$3,800!
$3,900!
$4,000!
$4,100!
$4,200!
Jan-
12!
Feb-
12!
Mar-1
2!Ap
r-12!
May-
12!
Jun-
12!
Jul-1
2!Au
g-12
!Se
p-12
!Oc
t-12
!No
v-12
!De
c-12
!Ja
n-13
!Fe
b-13
!Ma
r-13!
Apr-1
3!Ma
y-13
!
USD
milli
ons!
5.1%
$45bCY 2012
14.3%2013 share of C&EP
manufacturing market
2013 vs 2012
Market Size
Market Share
Growth Rate
Computer & Electronic Product (C&EP) Manufacturing
Communications Equipment ManufacturingValue of Shipments
97
Computer & Peripheral EquipmentValue of Shipments
$2,100!
$2,200!
$2,300!
$2,400!
$2,500!
$2,600!
$2,700!
$2,800!
$2,900!
Jan-
12!
Feb-
12!
Mar-1
2!Ap
r-12!
May-
12!
Jun-
12!
Jul-1
2!Au
g-12
!Se
p-12
!Oc
t-12
!No
v-12
!De
c-12
!Ja
n-13
!Fe
b-13
!Ma
r-13!
Apr-1
3!Ma
y-13
!
USD
milli
ons!
-8.6%
$30bCY 2012
8.4%2013 share of C&EP
manufacturing market
2013 vs 2012
Market Size
Market Share
Growth Rate
Computer & Electronic Product (C&EP) Manufacturing98
Semiconductor & All Other C&EPValue of Shipments
$9,300!
$9,800!
$10,300!
$10,800!
$11,300!
$11,800!
$12,300!
$12,800!
Jan-
12!
Feb-
12!
Mar-1
2!Ap
r-12!
May-
12!
Jun-
12!
Jul-1
2!Au
g-12
!Se
p-12
!Oc
t-12
!No
v-12
!De
c-12
!Ja
n-13
!Fe
b-13
!Ma
r-13!
Apr-1
3!Ma
y-13
!
USD
milli
ons!
1.7%
$135bCY 2012
39.9%2013 share of C&EP
manufacturing market
2013 vs 2012
Market Size
Market Share
Growth Rate
Computer & Electronic Product (C&EP) Manufacturing99
The Current State of America’s Electrical Equipment, Appliance, & Component Manufacturing Market
100
Electrical Equipment, Appliance, & Component Manufacturing
NAICS 335
WORLDWIDE OVERVIEWElectric Lighting: Companies in this industry manufacture electric light bulbs and tubes as well as lighting fixtures, lamp shades, and other components and parts. Demand depends primarily on residential, industrial, and commercial construction activity. The industry is concentrated: the largest 50 companies account for about 70 percent of revenue. The US lighting equipment manufacturing industry includes about 1,000 companies with combined annual revenue of about $12 billion. High growth is forecast for the next two years. Key growth drivers include an increase in new construction and renovations, as well as growing popularity of energy-efficient lighting.
Household Appliances: Companies in this industry manufacture large appliances such as stoves, ovens, refrigerators, and washers and dryers, and small appliances including vacuum cleaners, fans, humidifiers, and dehumidifiers, and toaster ovens. The global household manufacturing industry generates about $160 billion in annual revenue. The European Union accounts for about $73 billion; China for about $13 billion. The US household appliance manufacturing industry consists of about 300 companies with combined annual revenue of about $18 billion. The output of the appliance manufacturing industry is expected to grow at a low rate over the next two years. Competition from low-cost imports is a major challenge. Demand is driven by growth in consumer income and by home sales.
Electrical Equipment: Companies in one segment of this industry manufacture electric motors, power generators, and motor generator sets. The global motor and generator manufacturing industry has revenue of about $100 billion annually. Another segment manufactures industrial controls and control accessories such as relays and motor starters and controllers. Top countries for industrial control products manufacturing include China, Germany, Japan, South Korea, and the US -- countries with strong levels of overall industrialization. However, developing markets are gaining in worldwide market share.
SOURCE: Hoovers
$1 trillionAnnual revenue
generated by all global EEA&C manufacturers
11%Approximate U.S. share of
worldwide EEA&C manufacturing market
>3,000Number of United States
EEA&C manufacturing companies
101
Electric Lighting Equipment‣ Lamp bulbs & parts‣ Lighting fixtures
Household Appliances‣ Small electrical appliances‣ Major appliances‣ Cooking appliances‣ Refrigerators & home freezers‣ Laundry equipment
Electrical Equipment‣ Power, distribution, &
transformer‣ Motor & generator‣ Switchgear & switchboard
apparatus‣ Relay & industrial control
Other Electrical Equipment & Components‣ Battery‣ Communication & energy wire
& cable‣ Fiber optic cable‣ Wiring devices‣ Carbon & graphite products 0.3%
$123bUSA 2012
5%2013 share of durable goods
manufacturing market
2013 vs. 2012new orders
New Orders
Market Share
Growth Rate
Electrical Equipment, Appliance, & Component Manufacturing
NAICS 335
102
Electrical Equipment, Appliances, & ComponentsMarket Share per Value of Value of Shipments, USA
Raw data extracted from the June 2013 M3 Report, produced by the U.S. Census Bureau
All Other34%
Electrical Equipment
32%
Household Appliance
16%
Battery Manufacturing
10%
Electric Lighting
8%CY 2012 Value of Shipments
$123 billion
103
Electrical Equipment, Appliances, & ComponentsMarket Share per Employment Level, USA
Raw data extracted from the June 2013 M3 Report, produced by the U.S. Census Bureau
June ʼ13 Employment Level
389 thousandAll Other
32%
Electrical Equipment
36%
Household Appliance
14%
Battery Manufacturing
7%
Electric Lighting
12%
104
Electrical Equipment, Appliances, & ComponentsValue of Shipment by Sub-Industry
$10.0!$10.5!$11.0!$11.5!$12.0!$12.5!$13.0!$13.5!$14.0!
CY 2003!
CY 2004!
CY 2005!
CY 2006!
CY 2007!
CY 2008!
CY 2009!
CY 2010!
CY 2011!
CY 2012!
USD,
billi
ons!
Electric Lighting Equipment!
$17.5!
$18.5!
$19.5!
$20.5!
$21.5!
$22.5!
$23.5!
$24.5!
CY 2003!
CY 2004!
CY 2005!
CY 2006!
CY 2007!
CY 2008!
CY 2009!
CY 2010!
CY 2011!
CY 2012!
USD,
billi
ons!
Household Appliance!
$28.0!$30.0!$32.0!$34.0!$36.0!$38.0!$40.0!$42.0!$44.0!
CY 2003!
CY 2004!
CY 2005!
CY 2006!
CY 2007!
CY 2008!
CY 2009!
CY 2010!
CY 2011!
CY 2012!
USD,
billi
ons!
Electrical Equipment!
$33.0!
$38.0!
$43.0!
$48.0!
$53.0!
CY 2003!
CY 2004!
CY 2005!
CY 2006!
CY 2007!
CY 2008!
CY 2009!
CY 2010!
CY 2011!
CY 2012!
USD,
billi
ons!
All Other!
105
2012 vs. 2011Year Over Year Summary
•$196 billion in annual sales, slightly up over 2011
•Modest increases in operating and net income margin
•More cash on hand, more investment level
•Gains in Stockholders’ equity NWC
Raw data extracted from the June 2013 Quarterly Report, produced by the U.S. Census Bureau 106
Electrical Equipment, Appliances, & ComponentsIncome Statement Index Comparison
Net Sales
20%
+7%Dec ’12 to Dec ’03
20%3 times faster growth rate than has revenue since ’03
3 times faster growth rate than has revenue since ’03
Op Income
Net IncomeOperating Income IndexNet Sales IndexNet Income Index
Dec 2013
Dec 2003
107
73 101
87.3
Industrial Production66% 89%
80.7
Capacity Utilization
58 80
74.4
Cash Cycle, days
0.65 0.86Quick Ratio
0.86
1.00 1.32
1.31
Current Ratio
Electrical Equipment, Appliances, & Components Dashboard
108
5.2% 12.8%
6.5%
Operating Profit8.6% 17.9%
Return on Sales
14.3%
4.8% 10.5%Return on Assets
5.7%
Mashburn Ranking: 9/12
58%
100.6 119.8
119.4
Import Index100.0 114.2
113.7
Export Index
100.0 139.0
138.5
Producer Price Index354k 475k
364k
Employment Level
$405k $512k
$489k
Net Sales per Employee$221k $334kValue of Shipments
per Employee
$334k
109
1.30 1.69
1.61
Inventory to Shipment Ratio
1.80 2.50
2.40
Unfilled Order to Shipment Ratio
Electrical Equipment, Appliances, & Components DashboardMashburn Ranking: 9/12
58%
Unfilled Orders IndexNew Orders IndexValue of Shipments IndexTotal Inventories Index
+39%
+52%CY 2012 vs. CY 2003
+24%CY 2012 vs. CY 2003
Unfilled Orders
New Orders
CY 2012 vs. CY 2003
Total Inventories
Electrical Equipment, Appliances, & ComponentsM3 Index Comparison, 2003 through 2012
90!
100!
110!
120!
130!
140!
150!
160!
170!
CY 2003!
CY 2004!
CY 2005!
CY 2006!
CY 2007!
CY 2008!
CY 2009!
CY 2010!
CY 2011!
CY 2012!
M3 In
dex,
200
3!
110
Electrical Equipment, Appliances, & ComponentsM3 Index Comparison, 2013 vs. 2012
Q2 2013
Q1 2012
Unfilled Orders IndexNew Orders IndexValue of Shipments IndexTotal Inventories Index
+2.3%
+1.3%Q2 ’13 vs. Q1 ’12
+1.6%Q2 ’13 vs. Q1 ’12
Unfilled Orders
New Orders
Q2 ’13 vs. Q1 ’12
Total Inventories
111
Electrical Equipment, Appliances, & ComponentsTotal Inventory by Stage, 2003 through 2012
20%!
25%!
30%!
35%!
40%!
45%!
CY 2003!
CY 2004!
CY 2005!
CY 2006!
CY 2007!
CY 2008!
CY 2009!
CY 2010!
CY 2011!
CY 2012!
Perc
ent o
f Tot
al In
vent
ory!
Material & Supplies Inventory! Work in Process! Finished Goods!
Trending down since ‘07
Work in Process
Trending up since ‘07
Materials & Supplies
Flat since ‘07
Finished Goods
112
Electrical Equipment, Appliances, & ComponentsEmployment Situation Report Major Index Comparison
+30%
-16%Since March ’06
Flat
Employee Level
Since March ’06
Weekly Hours
Since March ’06
Hourly Earnings
Hourly Earnings IndexWeekly Hours IndexEmployment Level Index
June 2013
March 2006
113
Electrical Equipment, Appliances, & ComponentsEmployment Level Indexes by Sub-industry
Raw data extracted from the July 2013 Employment Situation Report, produced by the U.S. Census Bureau
Electrical equipment All other EEA&C Electric lighting Household appliances
June 2013
Mar 2006
Employee Level Index
114
Electrical Equipment, Appliances, & ComponentsProducer Price Index (PPI) Trend
+34%Since Dec ’04
PPI
100!
105!
110!
115!
120!
125!
130!
135!
140!
CY 2004!
CY 2005!
CY 2006!
CY 2007!
CY 2008!
CY 2009!
CY 2010!
CY 2011!
CY 2012!
115
Electrical Equipment, Appliances, & ComponentsProducer Price Index (PPI) versus Consumer Price Index (CPI)
+20%Since Dec ’04
PPI
+2%Since Dec ’04
CPI
Household Appliance
CY 2004!
CY 2005!
CY 2006!
CY 2007!
CY 2008!
CY 2009!
CY 2010!
CY 2011!
CY 2012!
PPI, Household Appliance MFG! CPI, Household Appliances!
Further separation between PPI and CPI continues in 2013
Mar-12! May-12! Jul-12! Sep-12! Nov-12! Jan-13! Mar-13! May-13!
PPI, Household Appliance MFG! CPI, Household Appliances!
116
Electrical Equipment, Appliances, & ComponentsProducer Price Index (PPI) versus Consumer Price Index (CPI)
+16%CY ’12 vs. CY ’06
Import Index
+11%CY ’12 vs. CY ’06
Export Index
CY 2006! CY 2007! CY 2008! CY 2009! CY 2010! CY 2011! CY 2012!
Import Index! Export Index!
117
The Current State of America’s Transportation Equipment
Manufacturing Market
118
Transportation Equipment ManufacturingNAICS 336
WORLDWIDE OVERVIEWCompanies in this industry manufacture transportation equipment, including motor vehicles and parts, aircraft and other aerospace products, ships and boats, and railroad rolling stock. The global transportation equipment manufacturing industry generates as much as $4 trillion in annual revenue. Leading transportation equipment-producing countries include Brazil, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, South Korea, and the US. Low growth is forecast for the next two years.Demand is driven by employment and interest rates, growth in consumer income, military budgets, and the overall economic climate. The profitability of individual companies depends on manufacturing efficiency, technical expertise, and product quality. Large companies enjoy economies of scale in manufacturing and purchasing, as well as advantages in marketing and distribution. Small companies can compete by specializing in niche markets.SOURCE: Hoovers
$4 trillionAnnual revenue generated by all global transportation equipment manufacturers
20%Approximate U.S. share of worldwide transportation
equipment manufacturing market
12,000Number of United States transportation equipment manufacturing companies
119
Motor Vehicle‣ Automobile‣ Light truck & utility‣ Heavy duty truck
Motor Vehicle Body & Trailer‣ Body‣ Truck trailer‣ Motor home‣ Travel trailer & camper
Motor Vehicle Parts‣ Engine‣ Electrical‣ Steering & suspension‣ Brake system‣ Transmission‣ Seating & interior‣ Metal stamping
Aerospace Product & Parts‣ Aircraft‣ Aircraft engine‣ Guided missile & space vehicle
Railroad Rolling Stock
Other Transportation Equipment‣ Motorcycle & bicycle building‣ Military armored vehicle
Ship & Boat Building
Transportation Equipment ManufacturingNAICS 336
4.3%
$805bUSA 2012
28%2013 share of durable goods
manufacturing market
2013 vs. 2012new orders
New Orders
Market Share
Growth Rate
120
Transportation Equipment ManufacturingMarket Share per Value of Shipments
Auto16%
Misc7%
Other14%
Bodies & Parts28%
Light Truck19%
NondefenseAircraft
16%
Defense Aircraft
7%
Ships & Boats4%
Heavy Truck3%
Raw data extracted from the June 2013 M3 Report, produced by the U.S. Census Bureau 121
Transportation Equipment ManufacturingMarket Share per Employment Level
Aerospace Product & Parts34%
Motor Vehicle Parts33%
Motor Vehicle12%
Ships & Boats12%
Motor Vehicle Bodies & Trailers
8%
Railroad Stock4%
Raw data extracted from the June 2013 Employment Situation
Report, produced by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
122
2012 vs. 2011Year Over Year Summary
•$745 billion in annual sales•Sales costs, and op income up,
and net income down•More cash on hand, less
investment level•Total assets up 9.1%, total
liabilities up 12.8%•Stockholders’ equity is flat
Raw data extracted from the June 2013 Quarterly Report, produced by the U.S. Census Bureau 123
Transportation Equipment ManufacturingIncome Statement Index Comparison
Operating Income IndexNet Sales IndexNet Income Index
Dec 2013Dec 2003
Net Sales
1.4x
+28%Dec ’12 to Dec ’03
4.2x4.2 times faster growth rate than has revenue since ’03
1.4 times faster growth rate than has revenue since ’03
Op Income
Net Income
124
0.58 0.82Quick Ratio
0.74
0.96 1.36
1.27
Current Ratio
-3.7% 7.1%
6.2%
Operating Profit-7.6% 8.6%
7.6%
Return on Sales
49 112
74
Cash Cycle, days-2.9% 8.1%
5.3%
Return on Assets
68 104
103.4
Industrial Production55% 81%
73.8
Capacity Utilization
Transportation Equipment Dashboard
125
Mashburn Ranking: 1/12
83%
$372k $518k
$518k
Value of Shipments per Employee
$432k $659k
$659k
Net Sales per Employee
99.9 112.6
111.8
Import Index100.0 118.0
117.9
Export Index
1.09 2.02
1.70
Inventory to Shipment Ratio
7.62 19.47
14.68
Unfilled Order to Shipment Ratio
99.8 116.0
115.6
Producer Price Index1,309k 1,805k
1,496k
Employment Level 126
Transportation Equipment DashboardMashburn Ranking: 1/12
83%
Transportation Equipment ManufacturingEmployment Situation Index Comparison
Hourly Earnings IndexWeekly Hours IndexEmployment Level Index
June 2013
March 2006
17.0%
-16.1%Since March ’06
+2.2%
Employee Level
Since March ’06
Weekly Hours
Since March ’06
Hourly Earnings
127
Transportation Equipment ManufacturingEmployee Situation Indexes by Sub-industry
Raw data extracted from the July 2013 Employment Situation Report, produced by the U.S. Census Bureau
Hourly Earnings Index
May 2013Mar 2006May 2013
Mar 2006
Employee Level Index
Motor vehicle bodies & trailers Motor vehicle parts Motor vehicle Aerospace
128
Consumer Price Index, CPI
Producer Price Index, PPI
June 2013
July 2009
New & Used Motor Vehicles
PPI versus CPI
123.0!
125.0!
127.0!
129.0!
131.0!
133.0!
135.0!
137.0!
139.0!
107.0!
108.0!
109.0!
110.0!
111.0!
112.0!
113.0!
114.0!Motor Vehicle Parts
June 2013
July 2009
Consumer Price Index, CPI
Producer Price Index, PPI
+5.6%
+8.5%
Increase since recession
PPI
Increase since recession
CPI
+4.7%
+9.5%
Increase since recession
PPI
Increase since recession
CPI
129
Autos, Trucks, & SUVs ManufacturingM3 Report Index Comparison
Unfilled Orders IndexNew Orders IndexValue of Shipments IndexTotal Inventories Index
May 2013Jan 2012
3.4%
+18.4%May ’13 vs. Jan ’12
+21.8%May ’13 vs. Jan ’12
New Orders
Value of Shipments
May ’13 vs. Jan ’12
Total Inventories
130
Motor Vehicle Bodies, Trailers, & PartsM3 Report Major Index Comparison
Unfilled Orders IndexNew Orders IndexValue of Shipments IndexTotal Inventories Index
May 2013
Jan 2012
+4.0%
+5.7%May ’13 vs. Jan ’12
-4.4%May ’13 vs. Jan ’12
New Orders
Unfilled Orders
May ’13 vs. Jan ’12
Value of Shipments
131
$17,900!$18,100!$18,300!$18,500!$18,700!$18,900!$19,100!$19,300!$19,500!$19,700!
Jan-
12!
Feb-
12!
Mar-1
2!Ap
r-12!
May-
12!
Jun-
12!
Jul-1
2!Au
g-12
!Se
p-12
!Oc
t-12
!No
v-12
!De
c-12
!Ja
n-13
!Fe
b-13
!Ma
r-13!
Apr-1
3!Ma
y-13
!
USD
milli
ons!
Motor Vehicle Bodies, Trailers, & Parts Value of Shipments
Transportation Equipment Manufacturing
3.7%
$221bCY 2012
28.4%2013 share of
transportation equipment manufacturing market
2013 vs 2012
Market Size
Market Share
Growth Rate
132
Automobile ManufacturingValue of Shipments
$7,500!
$8,000!
$8,500!
$9,000!
$9,500!
$10,000!
$10,500!
$11,000!
Jan-
12!
Feb-
12!
Mar-1
2!Ap
r-12!
May-
12!
Jun-
12!
Jul-1
2!Au
g-12
!Se
p-12
!Oc
t-12
!No
v-12
!De
c-12
!Ja
n-13
!Fe
b-13
!Ma
r-13!
Apr-1
3!Ma
y-13
!
USD
milli
ons!
Transportation Equipment Manufacturing
24.8%
$107bCY 2012
15.8%2013 share of
transportation equipment manufacturing market
2013 vs 2012
Market Size
Market Share
Growth Rate
133
Light Truck & Utility Vehicle ManufacturingValue of Shipments
$10,000!
$10,500!
$11,000!
$11,500!
$12,000!
$12,500!
$13,000!
Jan-
12!
Feb-
12!
Mar-1
2!Ap
r-12!
May-
12!
Jun-
12!
Jul-1
2!Au
g-12
!Se
p-12
!Oc
t-12!
Nov-
12!
Dec-
12!
Jan-
13!
Feb-
13!
Mar-1
3!Ap
r-13!
May-
13!
USD
milli
ons!
Transportation Equipment Manufacturing
13.0%
$136bCY 2012
18.5%2013 share of
transportation equipment manufacturing market
2013 vs 2012
Market Size
Market Share
Growth Rate
134
Nondefense Aircraft ManufacturingValue of Shipments
$9,200!
$9,700!
$10,200!
$10,700!
$11,200!
$11,700!
$12,200!
$12,700!
Jan-
12!
Feb-
12!
Mar-1
2!Ap
r-12!
May-
12!
Jun-
12!
Jul-1
2!Au
g-12
!Se
p-12
!Oc
t-12
!No
v-12
!De
c-12
!Ja
n-13
!Fe
b-13
!Ma
r-13!
Apr-1
3!Ma
y-13
!
USD
milli
ons!
Transportation Equipment Manufacturing
3.9%
$127bCY 2012
16.0%2013 share of
transportation equipment manufacturing market
2013 vs 2012
Market Size
Market Share
Growth Rate
135