GTC 10 Year LTFM

Demonstration of a 10 Year, Long Term Forecasting Model using Primavera Resource

Loaded Projects

Patrick O’ConnellProject Control Group LeadGeorgia Transmission Corporationpatrick.oconnell@gatrans.com

GTC 10 Year LTFM

• There are more slides in this presentation with notes and procedures

• Not all will be discussed as we will go demo as much as we can

• Contact me if desired

GTC 10 Year LTFM

• GTC - owned by 39 Electric Membership Cooperatives (EMCs) in Georgia

• Build, operate and maintain Transmission Lines and Substations

• Not only for the EMC’s but also for the ITS• ITS – shared transmission system in Georgia with 4

members: GTC, GPC, MEAG and Dalton

GTC 10 Year LTFM

• Why this methodology?• The purpose of the LTFM

is to provide an aligned cost (EPIS & Cashflow) & man-hour forecasting tool

• Target audience• Finance• Functional Managers

GTC 10 Year LTFMDefinitions

• EPIS – Electric Plant In Service• Depreciation begins• Affects members as we plan to recover cost for their stations

and lines• LTFM – Long Term Forecasting Model

• EPIS• Cashflow• Capacity planning / Workforce planning

• Cashflow vs EPIS• Paying the bills vs how we pay off paying the bills

GTC 10 Year LTFMTools

• TPOP• Planning tool• Project attributes• “Real” projects based on customer need

• P6 v7• TPOP projects• “Ghost” projects

• Access• Query data from multiple data sources

• Excel• Input/output• Calculators• Charts

GTC 10 Year LTFMTools

• Effect of “Ghost” projects

GTC 10 Year LTFMP6

• Schedules created from standard templates• Resource loaded

• Expense codes for invoices and payments• Consistent across all projects• Project schedule has all cost – BAC, AC, ETC, EAC

• Roles assigned in template• Standard by project type / activity• Many departments and job titles

GTC 10 Year LTFMTypes of Ghost Projects

• Nine types (well, 14 after considerations)• Complexity / Size

• New / Mod Subs and New / Mod T/Ls• Advanced Land Purchase

• Cost average across all for each type• All expense codes• All roles – input from team members• Last 5 years of project history used

• Provision for non standard (like a $30M SS or TL)• Excluded some as non repeating

• Also, reimbursable projects

GTC 10 Year LTFMWhat are we doing?

• We have real data that goes out 2-3 years for some load growth projects and long term projects that extend for 5-6 year but we don’t plan at the project level, really that far out.

• We add Ghost projects to match a projection and from this we get EPIS by project types (accounting need) and workforce planning by job title.

GTC 10 Year LTFMPredictor Tool (Excel Spreadsheet)

• Sources of Data• TPOP, Primavera and Formal Projection

• Calculator• Compares TPOP, Primavera and a prediction to

determine the number of projects to add or remove by project type

• Graph• Visual aid as the predictor is adjusted • It is bottom up estimating

GTC 10 Year LTFM

GTC 10 Year LTFMMS Access Queries

• Count (number of projects by type)• TPOP EPIS• P6 EPIS• How many do we need to add (delete)

• Cost• TPOP EPIS• P6 EPIS• As projects are added the cost impacts are telling

GTC 10 Year LTFMSpread Cost

• Each template spreads cost/MH based on activity duration and cost curves

• Cost Curves• Construction is back loaded• Land

• T/L – modified bell curve• S/S – last period

• Man-hours are linear

GTC 10 Year LTFMCost by EPS Sheet

• Sanity Check• Visual check to see if an EPS node does not look “right”• Useful first step if the chart looks like it has a spike

GTC 10 Year LTFMProject Cost by EPS Sheet

• Error Check• Step two if you think there might be a bad project• Easy to sort and group by the same format as the previous

• Example:• South looks like it has too much • Drill to South node• Spy projects and look for outlier(s)

GTC 10 Year LTFMReports

• EPIS Charts• Workforce planning

GTC 10 Year LTFMChart

GTC 10 Year LTFMWorkforce Planning

• Departments• Interface charts

GTC 10 Year LTFMWorkforce Planning

GTC 10 Year LTFMRoles Tab

• List of roles with history• Class of project• Direct vs OH• Number of people supporting the role

• This is how you have charged your time NOT the place to estimate

GTC 10 Year LTFMSelected Resources Tab

• Pruning• Who are good candidates to describe the role?• Selected are those who have worked full years,

consistently on projects• Exclude

• Started mid year• Part time• Re-tasked to other assignments

GTC 10 Year LTFMRole History Tab

• Summarized data by role• Sanity check

GTC 10 Year LTFMEPS Structure and Activity Counts

GTC 10 Year LTFMLTFM EPS “Years”

• Note 2013 - 2014 have no data by choice• See how we are extending into the future to capture the

impact of front end activities on the target years

GTC 10 Year LTFMLTFM Templates

GTC 10 Year LTFMLTFM EPS “Years”

• Note 2013 - 2014 have no data by choice• See how we are extending into the future to capture the

impact of front end activities on the target years

GTC 10 Year LTFMOH Impact

• No OH shown• May be flat or steady but is (somewhat) independent of

capital growth• Ability to predict future year OH rates