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40 Issues for the Next Decade | Some Key Insights To Date | 16 May 2015
Future Agenda 2.0 | The World in 2025
Looking Forwards OrganisaGons increasingly want to idenGfy and understand
both the anGcipated and unexpected changes so that they can be beKer prepared for the future.
Future Agenda The Future Agenda is the world’s largest open foresight program that accesses mulGple views of the next decade from around the world so all can be beKer informed and sGmulate innovaGon.
Future Agenda 1.0 Top Insights for 2020 From the 2010 program, 50+ key insights on the next decade were shared widely via books and online and have been extensively
used by many organisaGons around the world.
Future Agenda in Numbers The first Future Agenda programme engaged many views in 25 countries.
Future Agenda 2.0 is doubling the face-‐to-‐face interacGon, engaging directly with 100,000 consumers and raising online sharing, debate and discussion.
Future Agenda 1.0 1 HOST 16 TOPICS 25 COUNTRIES 50 WORKSHOPS 1500 ORGANISATIONS
Future Agenda 2.0 35 HOSTS 20 TOPICS 50 CITIES 100 WORKSHOPS 2500 ORGANISATIONS
As we reach the half-‐way point of the Future Agenda programme with 50 events completed, we have over 400 new insights on the next decade. Here are 40 that are engaging people and organisaGons around the world.
Imbalanced PopulaLon Growth By 2025 the populaGon will have grown by 1bn with many of
us living longer: A good number of us will be in marginal regions that are unable to accommodate extra growth.
Lifespan Limits On a global scale, life expectancies in developed regions are conGnuing to rise in the 21st century and, although most people assume that there are biological limits on life span, so far there is liKle evidence that we are approaching them.
Working Longer For those who have inadequate reGrement savings, the most obvious
soluGon is to work longer. One major potenGal barrier, however, is that employers remain ambivalent about older workers.
Mega City States Increasing compeGGon between ciGes over-‐rides naGonal prioriGes as mayors lead bold iniGaGves to place their
ciGes at the forefront of the global stage.
Public-‐Private City Partnerships To collecGvely address major urban challenges, as shown by Medellin in Colombia, governments increasingly openly collaborate with business to improve the insGtuGonal fabric of ciGes as well as core infrastructure.
FloaLng CiLes? Climate change poses a worrying challenge for ciGes. 50% of ciGes are
dealing with its effects, and nearly all are at risk. Over 90% of all urban areas are coastal, puang most major ciGes on the planet at risk of flooding.
Personally Curated Data ‘Personally curated’ sources of data will have higher value simply due to the fact that they will represent the actual wishes and desires of an individual,
rather than the presumed wishes and desires based on derived data.
Data Marketplaces Data is a currency, it has a value and a price, and therefore requires a market place. An ecosystem for trading data is emerging -‐ anything that is informaGon will be represented in new data marketplaces.
Paying for Privacy We do not currently understand the value of our data or how it is
being used and so are giving it away. In the future we might be willing to pay more for our privacy than the data we share.
Sharing Secrets In exchange for beKer service or an improved quality of life, we increasingly recognise exactly what personal informaGon
we are prepared to share and who to share it with.
School in the Cloud In the networked age, we need schools, not structured like factories,
but like clouds. We know the way we will work in the future will change. Therefore the way we are educated and learn must change.
Self-‐Organised Learning By removing adult restricGons on educaGon and providing children with Internet access and on-‐line support and encouragement,
children are able to self-‐organise and learn.
Teachers as Coaches Future teachers will focus less on content transfer and more on facilitaGng good learning -‐ coaching students to become beKer thinkers and decision
makers is the priority: Many teachers’ status in society rises.
The Role of Private EducaLon Reshaping educaGon in LaGn America is focused on improving policies and changing aatudes towards learning. Integral within this is the role of private
educaGon in seang standards – that extend beyond just the wealthy.
ReinvenLng Diets Our relaGonship with food must change. We will need to reinvent our diets to meet our nutriGonal requirements for opGmal health and in so doing consume fewer calories and less meat: We must be prepared to pay realisGc prices.
Reducing Food Waste Postharvest losses of plant foods can be substanGal in developing countries
and amount to 30-‐50% of producGon. In developed countries we throw away a similar proporGon. The combined loss would feed about 3 billion people.
Feeding the BoTom of the Pyramid Achieving and maintaining lower prices and more efficient large scale
distribuGon to and within ciGes is a social priority. Balancing this with higher safety standards and food service costs is however a challenge for some.
Changing Role of Government EnGGes compete with the state for influence -‐ environmental, human rights, and other acGvist NGOs – and operate at many levels of government around
the world. This new dynamic changes the role of the state.
Hard Choices In a society where there is a widening gulf between rich and poor,
the rich may live increasingly separate lives and provide for their own “public services”.
Less Carbon -‐ More Energy The climate change debate is serious but needs to be broader,
focused not solely on reducing CO2 emissions, but on developing a low carbon, high-‐energy future to ensure prosperity for all.
Rise of the Micro-‐Actors We can see a blurring of energy consumers and producers – to ‘prosumers’
who do both. Hence a move to mulGple micro-‐actors working individually and collecGvely -‐ supported by new technological developments, including storage.
Moving Water Water sources will conGnue to suffer from over-‐extracGon: Mining and other acGviGes will move into our water supply catchments. This means we will need to move water long distances in Gmes of drought to services exisGng ciGes.
Reaching the Limits Growing populaGons and rising consumer demand related to higher standards of living across all socieGes are increasing consumpGon of
resources and we are in danger of exceeding the Earth’s natural thresholds.
Sources of Global SoluLons Global healthcare affordability will not come from the United States… but rather from those naGons of the world that have liKle today and have no
choice but to perform at the highest levels possible in the future.
24/7 Stress Network The millennial generaGon is more stressed than any other, living as it does in a 24/7, culturally diverse, increasingly urban world. Looking ahead there will be a need to provide a personalised, community-‐based support network.
The End of Cash? All the evidence suggests that the use of cash is in decline across the
globe. Cash takes Gme to get at, is riskier to carry, and by most esGmates, cash costs society as much as 1.5% of GDP.
ProliferaLon of Currencies People will increasingly use mulGple forms of currency in different contexts: alongside naGonal legal tender, we will see more local and crypto-‐currencies – many decoupled from exisGng systems.
TransacLonal vs. EmoLonal Seamless payments will distance consumers from understanding
monetary value. Brands will have to reconsider the way they connect to customers providing more holisGc and emoGonal value.
The Human Touch In a world of global and digital markeGng and consumpGon,
consumers will increasingly favour those brands that can offer more emoGonal engagements, and specifically human-‐to-‐human contact.
Eastern Centricity With China’s 500m-‐strong middle-‐class burgeoning and travel barriers diminishing, Western and Eastern cultures meet and feed off one another, shiming global norms.
Security vs. Convenience The balance between convenience and security with border controls coming under increasing strain as they deal with huge volumes of people travelling
internaGonally at a Gme when fears around global security are high.
Wi-‐fi Global Nomads For some in the knowledge economy the potenGal for conGnuous travel,
blended with part-‐Gme work, is focused on ‘wi-‐fi hopping’ for regular access to high-‐speed connecGvity -‐ no maKer where in the world they are.
Access Unleashed A shim of focus from access to one of mobility is underpinned by both an
increase in online interacGon and a decrease in personal transport. This shim in focus leads to more technology-‐enabled business model innovaGons.
Being Part of Society Is the purpose of the corporaGon just about pursuing profits,
or does it have a broader responsibility to produce socially beneficial outcomes and be a part of society rather than apart from it?
Measuring Wealth in a More Human Way As we evolve from seeing progress purely as growth of GDP and income per capita to a more holisGc understanding and measurement of wealth, the
metrics by which we judge success will have to be reinvented.
Inequality On The Agenda Inequality has become a concern not just for developing countries but also for those in the West: The majority believe the most pressing problem is inequality
of wealth as well as unequal access to health and digital connecGvity.
Increasing Tensions It will be very difficult to revert the trend of stagnant growth and high inequality that is seen in many of the richest economies leading to increasing poliGcal and societal tensions and potenGal flash points.
Skill ConcentraLons The growth of the nomadic global elite ciGzenship accelerates the
concentraGon of the high-‐skill / high-‐reward opportuniGes within a select group of globally-‐connected ciGzens, who move ahead of the urban pack.
Hollowing Out the Professions Technology is challenging the white-‐collar worker and automaGng both middle and high-‐end jobs. The future will see fewer accountants, lawyers and doctors and a hollowing out of the previously ‘safe’ professions.
Knowing The Unknown By 2020 people and connected objects will generate 40 trillion gigabytes of
data that will have an impact on daily life in one way or another. This data will make known about us things that were previously unknown or unknowable.
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