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Melina Duggal Charles G. Pattison Debra Dremann Frances Marino The 2060 Plan prepared by the 1000 Friends of Florida presented an ominous scenario of sprawling development in Florida. Since then, new policies at the state and local level, changes in the availability of capital both for development and conservation, and demographic and economic trends have likely altered Florida’s future outlook. Is 2060 just delayed, or have development patterns changed forever? A panel of experts will discuss likely growth scenarios, define ways to capitalize on alternative development trends and present ideas on conservation, planning, financing, and approaches to development that can be successful in these economic times and the future.
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Florida 2060 Revisited
Charles Pattison
Frances Chandler-Marino
Melina Duggal
Debra Dremann
Wellyn Land Company
Florida 2060In 2006, the 1000 Friends of Florida sanctioned a trend analysis of development/population distribution
Based on 2005 data
Depicted a sprawling pattern of development that covered much of central Florida
20602005
17.9 Million
35.8 Million
Population Forecast
Revised BEBR Mid Ranch Population Numbers
2005 – 2020 22,894,140 v. 21,325,800 (93%)
2020 – 2040 29,203,842 v. 26,081,800 (89%)
2040 – 2060 35,814,574 v. 32,591,262 (91%)
Assumptions
1. Moderate Population Growth (BEBR trend line)
2. New population consumes land at same density as existing development, by County
3. New population distributed geographically based on land suitability (existing urban, roadways, water, coastline, wetlands)
Existing Developed Lands and Permanent Conservation Lands
Developed Land
Conservation LandsPermanently Protected
2060 Developed Lands and Permanent Conservation Lands
Developed Land
Conservation LandsPermanently Protected
20602005
Agriculture, Other Undeveloped Lands
19.5
Urban Development
6.0
Urban Development
13.0
Water
2.0Water
2.0
PermanentlyProtected
Conservation
10.8
PermanentlyProtected
Conservation
10.8Agriculture, Other
Undeveloped Lands
12.5
Statewide Land Use Allocation (millions of acres)
Total: 38.3 Million Acres
Developed Land and Permanent Conservation Lands
Developed Land
Conservation LandsPermanently Protected
2005 2060
Issues Not Addressed
1. Water supply
2. Additional land acquisition
3. Sea level rise
4. Changes in market demand
5. Reasonableness of business as usual
6. Local comprehensive plans
IS Florida 2060 Still Relevant?Have market conditions changed forever?
Are the 2005 assumptions still reasonable?
Has the sprawling pattern of development become obsolete?
Is the financial climate so dissimilar that growth can’t be funded?
12
Revisiting 2060
Delayed or Different?
A Market Perspective
13
We Are In The
Recovery Phase…
It Just Doesn’t
Feel Like It Yet…
Unemployment Rates By County2007 Annual Averages
Unemployment rates by county,
2009 annual averages
(U.S. rate = 9.3 percent)
1.9% or below 2.0% to 2.9% 3.0% to 3.9%
4.0% to 4.9% 5.0% to 5.9% 6.0% to 6.9% 7.0% to 9.9%
10.0% or over
SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statist ics
Local Area Unemployment Statist ics
April 2010September 2010
Unemployment Rates By County2009 Annual Averages
Unemployment Rates By CountyMarch 2010 – February 2011 Averages
FL still suffering
Unemployment Rates By CountyAugust 2010 – July 2011 Averages
Starting to look better
18
NORMAL
PEAK
TROUGHRECOVERY
2006
2009 20102012
2001
2011
Moderate job growth in 2011
Housing starts begin to rise in 2012
Lending standards and regulatory uncertainties loosen in 2012
Boomers and Gen Y enter market in 2015+
2013 – The Next “Normal” YearSlow To Moderate Growth Through Recovery
RCLCO PROJECTIONS FOR RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE
RECOVERY
9 Million New People Projected in FL by 2040
Projected Population Growth (Thousands) by Planning Region2010-2040
SOURCE: BEBR Medium-High Projections from June 2011
20
SOURCE: BEBR, RCLCO, US Census
In 2005, 35.8 Projected In 2060, Now 32.2m Projected In 2060
2000 2005 2010 2060 (old) 2060 (new)
16.017.9 18.8
35.832.2
FL Population
21
Current Supply And Demand
SUPPLY: STILL OVER SUPPLIED– But we’ve reduced inventories since 2007
– Not out of the woods, but not 2007
– THEN: Values will always go up: Wrong
– NOW: Everything has changed permanently: Wrong
DEMAND: TWO BIG MARKETS WILL IMPACT FLORIDA
– Generation Y enters housing market
– Boomers retire – FL still warm and sunny
SOURCE: RCLCO
22
Long-term Demographic Trends Influencing How We Live
Key Demographic Drivers:
1. Generational shifts
2. Rise of non-traditional households
3. Growth in minority households
4. Domestic migration and foreign Immigration
5. Income and wealth
Generation Born 2010 Age
2010 Pop.
2010 % of Natio
n
Florida
2010 Pop.
2010 % of
Florida
Eisenhowers Before 1946 64+ 41M 13% 3.4M 18%
Baby Boomers 1946 – 1964 45 – 64 80M 26% 4.9 M 26%
Gen X 1965 – 1980 29 – 45 62M 20% 3.6M 19%
Gen Y (Millenials)
1981 – 1999 10 – 29 85M 27% 4.7M 25%
Gen Z (?) 2000 and After 0 – 10 42M 14% 2.3M 12%
SOURCE: Claritas, National Center for Health Statistics
Gen Y And Baby Boomers Two Largest Groups Nationally And In Florida
23
Year Student Housing
RentalHousing
Rent As Couple / 1st Home
Young Family Own
Mature Family Own
Buy 2nd Home
Empty Nester
Downsize Own
Buy RetireHome
2010 Gen Y Gen Y Gen XGen Y Gen X Baby B Baby B Baby B Eisen
Baby B
2015 Gen Y Gen Y Gen Y Gen XGen Y
Baby BGen X
Baby BGen X Baby B Eisen
Baby B
2020 Gen YGen Z Gen Y Gen Y Gen Y Gen X Baby B
Gen XBaby BGen X
EisenBaby B
2025 Gen Z Gen YGen Z
Gen YGen Z Gen Y Gen X
Gen YGen XGen Y
Gen XBaby B Baby B
Life Stage Influences Housing Choices
SOURCE: RCLCO
60+ (Eisen-hower)
50-59 (BB)
40-49 (BB & Gen X)
30-39 (Gen X)
18-29 (Gen Y)
14% 15% 14% 18%31%
39% 38% 38%47%
42%
46% 47% 47%34% 25%
City Suburban Small Town/Rural
25
Where Do Different Generations Want To Live?
Source: 2011 National Community Preference Survey, National Association of Realtors, March 2011
60+ (Eisen-hower)
50-59 (BB)
40-49 (BB & Gen X)
30-39 (Gen X)
18-29 (Gen Y)
78% 83% 84% 84%74%
8% 3% 8% 8%
6%
8% 8%5%
4%
15%
SFD SFA/TH Apt/Condo
26
How Does Product Preference Change By Generation?
Source: 2011 National Community Preference Survey, National Association of Realtors, March 2011
Product Preference By Location
• Gen Y more open to MF products in all
locations than other generations
• City
• More renters
• MF, attached & small lot detached
• 30% attached
• Suburban
• Dominated by SFD, both small and large
lot
• 15% attached
• Rural/Small Town
• Primarily large lot SFD
• 8% attached Canin Associates
28
– “Urban myth” = prefer “safe urbanism”
– Village center – entertainment & retail services nearby – walkable!
– Healthy active lifestyles
– Affordability
– Smaller, move-down homes, high-level of finish
– May rejuvenate 2nd home market
– Low-maintenance lifestyle
– Niche SFD and SFA products
Demographics: Impact Of Boomer
SOURCE: RCLCO
29
– Primarily families - still have to build for the family buyer
– Good schools!!!!!!
– Larger lots/homes
– Affordability
– Healthy active lifestyles – safe neighborhoods, parks, trails and walkability!
– Hard to balance life - also desire in-town areas and inner suburbs close to jobs, entertainment & services
Demographics: Impact of Gen X
SOURCE: RCLCO
30
– In-town areas and inner suburbs will remain on an upward trajectory
– Diversity, walkability and proximity to jobs keys to attracting this segment
– Suburbs will need to evolve to remain attractive to Gen Y
• More walkable areas, including new and existing town centers
• Master planned communities
– Niche products and “village centers”
– Affordability
Demographics: Impact Of Gen Y
SOURCE: RCLCO
How is the Development Community Responding ?
2007 to 2010 TODAY
Florida Housing Permits – Peak to Trough
Housing Unit Building Permits for Florida2005 versus 2009
2005 2009 Loss % Change
Total Units 287,250 35,326 (251,924) (88%)
Units in SF 209,162 26,633 (182,529) (87%)
Units in MF 78,088 8,693 (69,395) (89%)
2010 Florida increased to 38,679 Units – Ranking #3 of the Top 10 StatesTexas #1 at 88,461 and California at 43,716
Source: US Census Bureau
Key Influencers:
• Uncertainty of Market Demand &
Market Values
• Tremendous Amount of Competition
• Changing Demographics
• Availability of Capital
• Job Creation still not sufficient to reduce unemployment
• Banks still VERY slow to move non-performing loans off of balance sheets
• Home Values not at Bottom Yet – Market Specific
• Continued Foreclosures activity for 2 to 3 more years
• Global & Wall Street Instability
Recession Worries Still Abound
• Home builders have ceased lay-offs and are hiring again for the first time since 2006
• Access to Capital is BACK
• Home Affordability is BACK (If you can qualify)
• Florida still very desirable for Baby Boomers
• The Rise of Gen Y
• Low Interest Rates
So What’s the Good News?
Who’s Buying and What’s Selling Now
Rose Cottage – 27’ x 130’ - 1,200 SF
Townhome – 1,496 SF
Forest Creek in Parrish, FL – Neal Communities“Value” – Affordability
is Back!
• Heart of the “for-sale” market: $150K to $300K
• Boomers & Gen Y - Smaller homes & lots
• Families - McMansions at $64/sf
• Single Family Detached more so than Attached
• Multi-Family High Demand
What’s Important in a Home?Some consumers motivated by
“green” but not paying premium. Builder’s see it as a Differentiator!
Buying the house I “need” not NEED + INVESTMENT. 2nd Home and vacation home market still struggling (foreign national buyers back)
Primary Luxury market back in some places – Still at a Discount
Where are they buying?
AVAILABILITY OF CAPITALPrivate versus Public
Primarily Privately Owned & Funded (Debt & Equity)
Higher Costs of Capital
Cautiously approaching new land deals
Competition - A lot of new players on the scene
A lot of looking, not a lot of buying
Primary Interest - CDD Defaults, Bank REO’s & Distressed Loans (No Greenfield)
Master Planned Community Developers
AVAILABILITY OF CAPITALPRIVATE DEVELOPER
Increased Activity from Private Capital
“A” Markets - Bank Debt Back
“A” Markets - CDD Bond Financing Back
Wall Street & Privately Funded
Lower Costs of Capital
More Aggressively approaching new land deals
A lot of Competition
Must maintain a pipeline
Primary Interest – Finished Lots and undeveloped land under 500 units (will partner with other builder’s on larger sites)
Home Builder/Developer – National Publics
AVAILABILITY OF CAPITALPUBLIC HOME BUILDER
Good Access to Capital
Good Access to Cheaper Capital
May Dominate Land Development in the Future???
AVAILABILITY OF CAPITALPRIVATE HOME BUILDER
Small Local and Regional Builder’s and Developers Devastated by Recession
Higher costs of Capital
Some new start-ups are emerging – Affordable Niche Products in Existing Communities & In-fill neighborhoods
Canadian Builders Investing in US – Ashton Woods & Mattamy Homes
2011/2012 Forecast
More Planning
Re-Positioning
Re-Entitling
More Home Building
Increase in Multi-Family For-Rent Activity
2011/2012 FORECAST “Greenfield” DEVELOPMENT
DEVELOPMENT FORECASTHEALTHIER & GREENER
And maybe a little more dense…
Developer’s Perspective on 2060 –
• Delayed or Different?
• Different– State will continue with acquisition of state
lands in the future when budgets rebound
– Developer’s do understand that trails and open space are important to selling homes and good stewardship of the land
– Demographic shifts and changes in affordability & Interest rate volatility will keep most homes in the more compact range.
FLORIDA 2060 REVISITEDCHALLENGES & OPPORTUNITIES
To embrace a focus that is visionary & proactive instead of responsive & reactive
To create a bigger picture – a statewide vision that informs policy and spending
April 10, 2023Page 50
REVISITING POLICY PRIORITIES:VISION FOR 2060
1. Focus on Natural Systems. Protect our natural systems as assets that serve to enhance our competitive position.
2. Key Economic Locations. Identify economic development priority locations and support these areas with land use a capital program planning – on a statewide basis.
3. Support the Evolution of Agricultural Industry. Prioritize commercial agriculture as an economic development objective and support the evolution of the agricultural enterprises.
REVISITING POLICY PRIORITIES:VISION FOR 2060
4. State Multimodal Strategy. Create a statewide system of multimodal economic and social connectivity.
5. Local Multimodal Strategy. Recognize and respect individual community characteristics through a “connectivity transect.”
6. City, Town & Country. Allow ranges of policies to support various scales, densities, types, forms and uses consistent with the context of the community.
FRAMEWORK FOR 2060 VISION:1. TAKE CARE OF FLORIDA
Place a priority on taking care of those things that make Florida special and unique:
• Coastline
• Beaches
• Rivers
• Natural Systems
• Corridors
FRAMEWORK FOR 2060 VISION:2. JOBS, JOBS, JOBS
Make economic development a priority – really.
• Globally competitive on a statewide basis
• Strategic infrastructure investments
• Create a foundation for a 21st century economy
• High tech / target (urban) + industrial (rural)
April 10, 2023Page 54DeSoto Solar Power Plant, Arcadia, FL
Tampa Biotech Incubators, UCF
FRAMEWORK FOR 2060 VISION:3. CONNECT PEOPLE TO PEOPLE TO PLACES
Establish the framework for a statewide/ multi-modal system of economic and social connectivity.
• Commuter Rail, High Speed Rail, & Support Transit
• Airports
• Ports
April 10, 2023Page 55
FRAMEWORK FOR 2060 VISION:4. CELEBRATE DIVERSITY
Recognize and support the unique visioning efforts & lifestyle choices of each community.
• Regional Visioning efforts
• Local Visioning efforts
• Let Cities be Cities; Suburbs be Suburbs; and Rural areas be Rural – one size does not fit all
Page 56
How Shall We Grow? 2009myregion.org
PRIORITIES FOR A NEW 2060
1. TAKE CARE OF FLORIDA
2. JOBS, JOBS, JOBS
3. CONNECT PEOPLE TO PEOPLE TO PLACES
4. CELEBRATE DIVERSITY
Prioritize expenditures as investments to create our desired future – we’re worth it.
April 10, 2023Page 57
Florida 2060 Revisited
Frances Chandler-Marino
Melina Duggal
Debra Dremann
Charles Pattison
Wellyn Land Company