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Celebrating 20 years of Economic Liberalisation A SYMBOL YOU CAN TRUST INTERLINK INSURANCE & REINSURANCE BROKERS PVT. LTD. 501, Sai InfoTech, Patel Chowk, R.B. Mehta Road, Ghatkopar (East), Mumbai - 400 077, India +91-22-6734 0000 | +91-22-6734 0099 [email protected] | www.InterlinkRe.com T: F: E: W: (for Private Circulation only) A Bird’s Eye View of Indian Economy - 2011 A Bird’s Eye View of Indian Economy - 2011 (1991 to 2011) Compiled & Prepared by

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Page 1: A birds eye veiw   indian economy 2010-11

Celebrating 20 years of Economic Liberalisation

A SYMBOL YOU CAN TRUST

INTERLINK INSURANCE & REINSURANCE BROKERS PVT. LTD.501, Sai InfoTech, Patel Chowk, R.B. Mehta Road,

Ghatkopar (East), Mumbai - 400 077, India

+91-22-6734 0000 | +91-22-6734 0099

[email protected] | www.InterlinkRe.com

T: F:

E: W:

(for Private Circulation only)

A Bird’s Eye View ofIndian Economy - 2011

A Bird’s Eye View ofIndian Economy - 2011

(1991 to 2011)

Compiled & Prepared by

Page 2: A birds eye veiw   indian economy 2010-11

Indian Economy - 2011

A SYMBOL YOU CAN TRUST

Release Photo

Mr. M.V. Nair,

‘A Bird’s Eye View of Indian Economy - 2011’

Mrs. Kalpana Parekh,

Chairman, Union Bank of India

performing release ceremony of our booklet

.

Next to him is Chairperson,

Interlink Insurance & Reinsurance Brokers Pvt. Ltd., Mumbai

Economy Survey of India,

Union Budget of India,

Statistical Outline of India by Tata Services Ltd,

The Times of India News Paper,

Business Express News Paper,

Financial Express News Paper,

International Monetary Fund,

Swiss Re - Sigma,

Various Government Websites and

various other sources

Sources for Compilation of Booklet :-

Page 3: A birds eye veiw   indian economy 2010-11

Indian Economy - 2011

A SYMBOL YOU CAN TRUST

Index

S.N. Particulars . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page

1 Chairperson’s Views on State of Indian Economy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

2 Budget at a Glance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4, 5

4 India in the International Market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

5 Agriculture Sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

6 Industrial Sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8, 9

7 Service Sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10, 11

8 Deficit Finance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12, 13

9 Inflation, Foreign Trade & Investments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14, 15

10 Population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16, 17

GDP Growth, Sectoral Growth, Real GDP Growth,

Brent Crude, Inflation & Industrial Growth

GDP & its Sectoral Share, GDP Comparison with USA - India & Other countries (1991 & 2011)

GDP (at Factor Cost by Industry of Origin), Average Customs Collection Rate, Excise Duty

Economic Outlook Projection by IMF, Excise/Manufacturing GDP, Customs/Import

Service Tax/Service GDP

Global Concern on Inflation, Overall Fiscal Balance and Gross Debt of the Govt.,

Ownership of Cars, India in World, India's Share in World Trade

Food Grain Output, Gross Capital Formation in Agriculture,

Agriculture Production, Hidden Cost - Food Subsidy, Inflation & Average Rainfall

Gross Domestic Savings & Capital Formation

Disruptions on Decline, Industrial Growth Loses Steam,

Soaring Input Prices Eat into Profits, Infrastructure Sectors Drag on Growth

Top 10 Slowest & Fastest Moving Industries, Ratio of Savings and Investments to GDP

Tourism, IT & IT Enabled Services

Composition of Service Sector, Performance of India’s Services Sector: Some Indicators

Performance in Services Growth (of Top 12 Countries)

Sectors Attracting Highest FDI Equity Inflows,

Growth Rate of GDP & Service Sector GDP, India's World ranking in different services

Revenue Receipts & Expenditure, Capital Receipts & Expenditure

Revenue Deficit, Fiscal Deficit & Primary Deficit

What it Means for the Government

Deteriorating Current Account, Major Subsidies

Trends & Composition of Centre’s Revenue Expenditure

External Debt Outstanding, Debt GDP Ratio, Foreign Exchange Reserves

Interest on Internal Liabilities and Avg.Cost of Borrowings

Foreign Trade, Latest Trend in FII Inflows, Movement of Indian Rupee,

Current A/c Imbalance (Foreign Funds Flows), Direction of Imports & Exports

Population Growth & Literacy Rate, High & Middle Income Households,

Composition of Private Consumption Expenditure, Most Populous Countries in the World,

Sex Ratio, Annual Sale of some Consumer Products, Sale of Consumer Non-Durables,

Insurance Density & Penetration, Gross Domestic Product, Gross Direct Premium & Inflation

Annual Growth in India’s Services in GDP,

1

Page 4: A birds eye veiw   indian economy 2010-11

Indian Economy - 2011

A SYMBOL YOU CAN TRUST

Chairperson’s Views on State of Indian Economy

The financial crisis which began in industrialized nations in

2007, spread to real economy across the world. India was

not an exception to this. The effect was visible when the

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of India came down from

9.3% in 2007-08 to 6.8% in 2008-09. To reverse the trend,

Policy Makers were forced to take calculated risk in

providing fiscal expansion, to boost the economy. The result

was, the Fiscal deficit shot up from 2.5%of GDP in 2006-07

to 6.0% in 2007-08 and 6.3% in 2008-09 which is a natural

phenomena.

The continued recession in the developed world affected

export of goods and services heavily, slowing down

financial inflow as well. Even then by the end of year 2009-

10 economy posted a remarkable recovery to achieve GDP

growth of 8.0%. During year 2010-11 estimated GDP

growth is 8.6% which adds to the comfort of Indian

economy.

Monetary-wise every sector has shown reasonable growth

year after year to achieve required Gross Domestic Product

growth. From 2004-05 to 2009-10 all sectors such as

Services, Manufacturing, Agriculture etc. have grown

almost in same proportion to give stability to Indian

Economy.

The Gross Domestic Savings have shown steady growth

except the year 2008-09, which suffered because of

recession. Again in 2009-10 with improved Economical

situation as far as India is concerned, Domestic Savings

regained its position to put up a very strong come back.

Similarly, Gross Domestic Capital Formation which was

almost stagnant in 2008-09 picked-up the steam to grow

from INR 19.73 Trillion in 2008-09 to INR 23.43 Trillion in

2009-10, an 18.75% jump.

Foreign Exchange Reserves for 3 quarters of INR 13.75

Trillion in 2010-11 surpasses the reserves of all 4 quarters

of INR 12.60 Trillion in 2009-10. This satisfactory Foreign

Exchange Reserve has provided required stability to the

economy.

Debt Service Ratio which stood at 10.1% in 2005-06 came

down to 4.4% in 2008-09. Though it has marginally

increased in 2009-10 taking into account the scenario

created by recession, there is no reason to panic.

Revenue Deficit which was 5.2% of GDP in 2009-10 has

been estimated to be 3.4% in 2010-11, Fiscal Deficit 6.4% of

GDP in 2009-10 to be 5.1% in 2010-11 and Primary Deficit

3.1% of GDP in 2009-10 to be 2.0% in 2010-11 shows

considerable improvement in the economy. All these

Deficits are not healthy signs but taking into account the

overall improvements, the Indian Economy is proving to be

stable and robust.

Of all the facts the population growth rate from 1.0% in

2001 to 1.17% (approx.) in 2010 is a disturbing factor. Still,

the young population may prove to be an asset rather than

liability.

However there are a few disturbing features in the Indian

Economy. Of them Inflation is a big concern. Higher oil price

in the international market is a worrying factor as

approximately 1/3 of India’s total import bill is for oil and

petroleum products.

Likewise revenue deficit and fiscal deficit though are within

the control, a cause of concern.

We will be happy to receive your comments / suggestions to

enable us to improve our presentation.

I take this opportunity to thank

who has kindly agreed to perform the

release ceremony.

Once again thank you all!

Mr. M.V. NAIR, Chairman,

Union Bank of India

Kalpana Parekh(Chairperson)

Kalpana ParekhMumbai, 6th April 2011

2

Page 5: A birds eye veiw   indian economy 2010-11

Indian Economy - 2011

A SYMBOL YOU CAN TRUST

Budget at a Glance

(Figures in INR Billions)

Quick Return to Fast Track

‘Fast and Strong’ is how the

Economic Survey has termed India’s

Economic Performance. Though

2010-11 GDP growth is impressive

and comprehensive, there are new

challenges ahead

1. GDP Growth (%)GDP returned to near 9% growth...

2. Sectoral Growth (%)... because all three sectors grew well...

4. Brent Crude (USD/Barrel)

...but the impact of events in Arab World...

5. Inflation & Industrial Growth (%)...high inflation & slack in Indu.growth pose new challenges

3. Real GDP Growth (%)...and global recovery helped too...

2009 2010*

USA -2.6 2.6

UK -4.9 1.7

Germany -4.7 3.3

China 9.0 10.4

Japan -5.2 2.8

Brazil -0.1 7.5

9

8

7

6

FY 06 FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10

9.58.6

FY 11(Adv.Esti.)

Agriculture Industry Services

9

6

3

0

2009-10 2010-11(Adv.Est.)

0.4

5.4

8.0 8.1

10.1

9.6

100

80

60

40

JAN ‘09 FEB ‘11JAN ‘10

20

111.36

M A M J J A S O N D

12

4

0

Inflation Industrial Growth

8

16

J2010 ‘11

8.23

* IMF Estimates

2009-2010 2010-2011 2010-2011 2011-2012

Actuals@ Budget Revised Budget

Estimates Estimates Estimates

1 Revenue Receipts 5,728.11 6,822.12 7,838.33 7,898.92

4 Capital Receipts (5+6+7) $ 4,516.76 4,265.37 4,327.43 4,678.37

8 Total Receipts (1+4) $ 10,244.87 11,087.49 12,165.76 12,577.29

9 Non-Plan Expenditure 7,210.96 7,356.57 8,215.52 8,161.82

13 Plan Expenditure 3,033.91 3,730.92 3,950.24 4,415.47

16 Total Expenditure (9+13) 10,244.87 11,087.49 12,165.76 12,577.29

20 Revenue Deficit (17-1) 3,389.98 2,765.12 2,698.44 3,072.7

21 Effective Revenue Deficit (17-18) # 2,451.95 1,790.52 1,604.17

22 Fiscal Deficit 4,184.82 3,814.08 4,009.98 4,128.17

23 Primary Deficit (20-11) 2,053.89 1,327.44 1,602.41 1,448.31

2 Tax Revenue (Net to Centre) 4,565.36 5,340.94 5,636.85 6,644.57

3 Non-Tax Revenue 1,162.75 1,481.18 2,201.48 1,254.35

5 Recoveries of Loans 86.13 51.29 90.01 150.20

6 Other Receipts 245.81 400.00 227.44 400.00

7 Borrowing and other liabilities * 4,184.82 3,814.08 4,009.98 4,128.17

10 On Revenue Account of which, 6,579.25 6,435.99 7,267.49 7,335.58

11 Interest Payments 2,130.93 2,486.64 2,407.57 2,679.86

12 On Capital Account 631.71 920.58 948.03 826.24

14 On Revenue Account 2,538.84 3,151.25 3,269.28 3,636.04

15 On Capital Account 495.07 579.67 680.96 779.43

17 Revenue Expenditure (10+14) 9,118.09 9,587.24 10,536.77 10,971.62

18 Of Which, Grants for creation of Capital Assets 313.17 907.92 1,468.53

19 Capital Expenditure (12+15) 1,126.78 1,500.25 1,628.99 1,605.67

-5.2 -4.0 -3.4 -3.4

-3.5 -2.3 -1.8

{16-(1+5+6)} -6.4 -5.5 -5.1 -4.6

-3.1 -1.9 -2.0 -1.6

3

Page 6: A birds eye veiw   indian economy 2010-11

Indian Economy - 2011

A SYMBOL YOU CAN TRUST

Gross Domestic Product and its Sectoral Share

Gross Domestic Product

Gross Domestic Product

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1991 20101992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

31.4 14.230.3 30.7 30.0 29.5 27.3 27.8 26.0 25.9 25.0 23.9 24.0 21.4 21.7 20.2 19.5 18.5 17.8 17.0

25.9

28.0

25.6 25.1 25.2 25.8 26.9 26.5 26.4 25.8 25.3

25.8 25.025.8 25.6 26.2 26.4 26.7 26.5 25.7

42.7 57.844.1 44.2 44.8 44.6 45.8 45.6 47.6 48.3 49.7 50.3 51.0 52.7 52.7 53.6 54.1 54.8 55.7 57.3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

INR

Trillion

Pe

rce

nta

ge

GDP at Factor Cost (Right Scale)Agriculture Industry Services (Left Scale)

5.15 5.94 6.81 7.92 9.2510.83

12.60 14.0116.16

17.86 19.2520.97

22.6125.38

28.77

32.82

37.79

41.6244.93

48.79

Average Customs Collection Rate

Excise / Manufacturing GDP

Compared to other sector, Service sector is becoming more and more important

in Indian Market and Government is also spending higher amounts on

infrastructure, such as roads, bridges, communication, etc. and in 2019-20 the

% of Service sector will increase to 60%. However, unfortunately amount-wise as

well as % wise Defense is getting more and more allocation.

0

10

20

40

30

50

(as

% o

f G

DP

)

1990-91 2009-10*2005-062000-011995-96

* Advanced Estimate

47.0

6.0

0

70

10

20

30

40

50

60

2004-05 2007-08 2009-10#2008-09*

Agriculture,

forestry &

fishing.

Mining &

Quarrying

Public admi-

-nistration

& defence

& other

services

Financing,

insurance,

real estate

& business

services

Trade,

hotels,

transport

& commu-

-nication

Manufac-

-turing, con-

-structions,

electricity,

gas and

water

supply Services

(IN

R T

rill

ion

)

6.5

(21.89%)

9.6

(20.99%)

10.7

(20.21%)

12.4

(20.28%)

7.4

(25.06%)

12.1

(26.32%)

13.5

(25.59%)

15.0

(24.45%)7.3

(24.49%)

11.5

(25.09%)

13.1

(24.78%)

14.8

(24.09%)

4.4

(14.71%)

6.9

(15.09%)

8.5

(16.08%)

10.3

(16.75%)

4.1

(13.84%)

5.7

(12.51%)

7.0

(13.34%)

8.9

(14.44%)

29.7

(100.00%)

45.8

(100.00%)

52.8

(100.00%)

61.3

(100.00%)

(at Factor Cost by Industry of Origin)

* Provisional Estimates # Quick Estimates

15

.8(5

3.0

3%

)

24

.1(5

2.7

0%

)

28

.6(5

4.2

0%

)

33

.9(5

5.2

7%

)

0

5

10

20

15

25

(in

Pe

rce

nta

ge

)

23

.0 23

.8

23

.4

21

.9

21

.3

18

.5

16

.9

13

.3

11

.4 13

.2

01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 10-11*06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10

* Figures for 9 months

Customs duties have fallen steeply ...

4

Page 7: A birds eye veiw   indian economy 2010-11

Indian Economy - 2011

A SYMBOL YOU CAN TRUST

GDP Compared with USA - India & ......... 1991 & 2011

Gross Domestic Product

Service Tax / Service GDP

GDP (USD Bln PPP)

19912011

818

2,301

BRAZIL

% of US GDP

15%14%

1991 2011

GDP Per Capita (USD PPP)

GDP Growth Rate

5,488

11,805

19912011

1991 20111.0% 4.1%

GDP (USD Bln PPP)

19912011

CHINA

% of US GDP

1991 2011

GDP Per Capita (USD PPP)

GDP Growth Rate

19912011

1991 20119.2% 9.6%

888

8,304

74%

1,029

11,195

17%

GDP (USD Bln PPP)

19912011

INDIA

% of US GDP

1991 2011

GDP Per Capita (USD PPP)

GDP Growth Rate

19912011

1991 20112.1% 8.4%

793

901

4,393

29%13%

3,563

GDP (USD Bln PPP)

19922011

RUSSIA

% of US GDP

1991 2011

GDP Per Capita (USD PPP)

GDP Growth Rate

19922011

1993 2011-8.7% 4.3%

1,169

2,343

15%20%

7,855

16,750

GDP (USD Bln PPP)

19912011

UK

% of US GDP

1991 2011

GDP Per Capita (USD PPP)

GDP Growth Rate

19912011

1991 2011-1.4% 2.0%

2,254

981

16% 15%

35,982

17,082

GDP (USD Bln PPP)1991

2011

US

% of US GDP

1991 2011

GDP Per Capita (USD PPP)

GDP Growth Rate

19912011

1991 2011-0.2% 2.3%

5,992

15,157

100%100%

23,648

48,387

0

1.0

2.0

4.0

3.0

5.0

(as

% o

f G

DP

)

1990-91 2009-102004-052000-011997-98

4.3

3.2 3.33.1

1.7

Customs / Import

Excise Duty

How does India’s economic growth compare with other BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia & China) as well as the developed US and UK

01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-060

0.5

1.0

2.0

1.5

2.5

(in

Pe

rce

nta

ge

)

10-11*06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10

0.3

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.3

1.8

2.1

2.1

2.1

1.7

* Figures for 9 months

0

3

6

15

12

9

18

(in

Pe

rce

nta

ge

)

16

.1

15

.1

13

.5

11

.5

9.9

10

.3

10

.3

7.3

6.1

8.6

01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 10-11*06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10

* Figures for 9 months

... as has incidence of Excise Duty

PPP - Purchasing Power Parity

-2

2

0

6

4

10

8

12

(% C

ha

ng

e Y

OY

)

-0.6

5.7

9.2

5.0

9.710.3

4.4

8.4

9.6

4.5

8.0

9.5

World India China

2012*2009 2011*2010

* Projected

Economic Outlook Projection by IMF

5

Page 8: A birds eye veiw   indian economy 2010-11

Indian Economy - 2011

A SYMBOL YOU CAN TRUST

India in the International Market

Global Concern on Inflation (in%) (2010) India in World

Particulars Units World India Rank

Area Mln. Km2 134 3 7

Population Mln 6,692 1,140 2

Gross National Income USD Bln 57,637 1,216 12

Electricity Generation Bln kwh 19,819 803 5

Exports of Services USD Bln 3,799 103 10

Agriculture & Allied

Arable Land Mln Hect. 1,411 159 2

Irrigated Area Mln Hect. 287 57 1

Gross Domestic Product USD Bln 60,587 1,217

Birth Rate per ‘000 20 24 85

Death Rate per ‘000 8 8 117

Infant Mortality (Live Births) per ‘000 47 54 51

Expectation of Life at Birth Years 69 65 162

Gross National Income USD Bln 57,638 1,516

Purchasing Power Parity 1 USD 10,357 2,960 83

Foreign Direct Investment

Inflow (in 2008) USD Bln 1,697 42

Outflow (in (2008) USD Bln 1,858 18

Foreign Exchange Reserve USD Bln 7,288 257

Insurance Premium Density

(

Life (in 2009) USD 341.2 47.7

Non-life (in 2009) 253.9 6.7

Insurance Penetration

(Insurance Premia as % of GDP)

Life (in 2009) % 4.0 4.6

Non-Life (in 2009) % 3.0 0.6

Growth Forcasts % 4.2 8.8 12

Trade in Commercial Services

Export (in 2008) USD Bln 3,780 103 9

Import (in 2008) USD Bln 3,490 84 13

Trade in Commercial Services in Total Trade

Export 19,850 280

Import 19,912 377

Per Capita Premia)

USD

Real GDP Growth (in 2010)

Trade in Goods

Export (in 2008) USD Bln 16,130 179 25

Import (in 2008) USD Bln 16,422 293 16

(in 2008) USD Bln

(in 2008) USD Bln

Brazil

China

Egypt

India

Thailand

Turkey

Ukrain

* Nov ** Dec *** Sept **** Oct

5.9**

5.1*

11.6***

8.3*

3.0**

6.4**

9.1**

9.2*

11.7*

21.9***

10.1*

3.2***

7.0**

13.1****

Inflation WPI Food Inflation WPI

Overall Fiscal Balance(as % of GDP)

Gross Debt of the Govt.(as % of GDP)

Ownership of Cars

India China USJapan

0

100

200

400

300

500

(pe

r T

ho

usa

nd

)

13

Brazil

23

457431

124

2009

2010*

Em

erg

ing

Eco

no

mie

s

Em

erg

ing

Eco

no

mie

s

India

Japan

Germany

France

US

Brazil

Russia

China

-10.2-9.8

-3.1-3.1

-6.2-4.2

77.875.7

17.718.4

10.910.4

-3.1-2.6

-10.6

-7.6-7.7

-3.0-3.5

-10.1-9.4

-12.791.2

78.184.0

73.5

76.6

217.4220.7

84.6

67.965.7

Ad

va

nce

d

Eco

no

mie

s

Ad

va

nce

d

Eco

no

mie

s

* Estimates

India's Share in World Trade (%)

Export Import

2001 2010 2001 2010

Agriculture Products 1.1 1.4 0.7 1.2

Food 1.3 1.4 0.5 1.0

Manufactured Products 0.7 1.3 0.5 1.3

Iron & Steel 0.9 1.9 0.5 2.3

Chemicals 0.7 1.3 0.8 1.8

Pharmaceuticals 1.0 1.3 * *

Telecom Equipment * 0.7 0.2 2.0

Automotive Products 0.1 0.6 * *

Textiles 3.5 4.3 * *

Clothing 3.0 3.6 * *

Transport Services 0.6 1.5 2.1 4.2

Commercial Services 3.7 2.4

* Negligible Source: CARE Ratings6

Page 9: A birds eye veiw   indian economy 2010-11

Indian Economy - 2011

A SYMBOL YOU CAN TRUST

Gross Capital Formation in Agriculture

Agriculture Sector

0

200

100

400

300

600

500

700

(IN

R B

illi

on

)

2006 2007 2008 2011*2009 2010

230.7 238.3

312.6

436.7

582.4

512.0

* up to 22-Oct-2010

195

205

200

215

210

235

230

220

225

240

(Mil

lio

n T

on

ne

s)

2006 2007 2008 2011*2009 2010

* Estimated

208.6

217.3

230.8

234.4

218.2

232.1

1600

1700

1650

1800

1750

1850

1900

1950

(KG

pe

r H

ect

are

)

2006 2007 2008 20102009

1,715

1,756

1,860

1,898

1,798

Food Grain Output

Agriculture Production Hidden Cost - Food Subsidy

Food Grain Output on the Rise ...

... and Low Yield Remain a Concern

Inflation & Average Rainfall

Year Inflation Percentage

All of long period

average rainfall

for the country

as a whole

of which,

Commodities Primary

Articles

2000-01 7.2 2.8 92

2001-02 3.6 3.6 81

2002-03 3.4 3.3 102

2003-04 5.5 4.3 86

2004-05 6.5 3.7 99

2005-06 4.3 4.3 99

2006-07 6.5 9.6 105

2007-08 4.8 8.3 98

2008-09 8.0 11.0 77

2009-10 3.6 12.7 102

2.1

2.5

2.3

2.9

2.7

3.1

3.3

(% o

f G

DP

)

2005 2007 2008 201020092006

2.56

2.56

... but Funds Flow Moderate

The demand for food grain is increasing as middle class

population has increased from 43 million in 1985-86 to

141 million in 2009-10 and this has changed the pattern

of consumption. There is minimum research and

development programme in agriculture compared to

industry. There is a need to tackle agriculture wastage

which is around 30-40% including storage-waste. The

return on agriculture is minimum to marginal and small

farmers compared to big farmers who enjoy subsidy,

minimum price and other benefits.

The inflow of funds is mainly come from Foreign

Institutional Investments (FII) which is a temporary

investment. Unfortunately Foreign Direct Investments

(FDI) is very low and because of government’s political

compulsion, the flow is limited as there are restrictions in

some of the financial sectors.

7

Page 10: A birds eye veiw   indian economy 2010-11

Indian Economy - 2011

A SYMBOL YOU CAN TRUST

Industrial Sector

Gross Domestic Savings(at Current Prices)

2006-07 2007-08 2009-10#2008-09*

0

5

10

15

20

25

(IN

R T

rill

ion

)

Household

Private Sector

Public Sector

9.9 11.213.3

15.4

5.3

4.4

4.7

3.4

1.5

2.5 0.3

1.4

22.1

18.018.4

14.9

* Provisional Estimates # Quick Estimates

Gross Domestic Capital Formation

Soaring Input Prices Eat into Profits

Industrial Growth Loses Steam

(at Current Prices)

2006-07 2007-08 2009-10#2008-09*

0

5

10

15

20

25

(IN

R T

rill

ion

)

Corporate Sec.

Public Sector

5.1 5.47.3 7.7

8.66.4

8.66.2

3.6

4.4 5.3

6.0

23.4

19.719.0

15.4

Valuables

Household Sec.

0.5

0.50.7

1.1

* Provisional Estimates # Quick Estimates

0

100

50

200

150

250

300

(No

. o

f In

cid

en

ce)

2006 2007 2008* 2010*2009*

24

3

18

7

21

0

24

0

15

7

79

20

19

2

18

1

17

9

* Provisional

Strikes Lockouts

Infrastructure Sectors Drag on Growth(% Growth : Core Industries)

2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11*

Power 6.3 2.5 6.8 4.6

Coal 6 8.2 8 0.6

Freight 9 4.9 6.6 3.3

Port cargo 12 2.2 5.7 0.8

Cement 7.8 7.6 10.1 4.1

Crude oil 0.4 -1.8 0.5 11.5

Natural gas 2.1 1.4 44.8 19.8

Disruptions on Decline

Apr-10 Jan-11

10

5

15

20

(% G

row

th I

IP)

Dec-11Dec-10

1.6

01.13

#

# because of Recession

-30

-20

0

40

20

60

80

(% G

row

th)

Expenditure Profit

16.23

23.15 19.88

13.50

28.50

9.55

67.05

-23.00

FY 08 FY 11

(Q1 & Q2)

FY 09 FY 10

* April to November

8

Page 11: A birds eye veiw   indian economy 2010-11

Indian Economy - 2011

A SYMBOL YOU CAN TRUST

Industrial Sector

Ratio of Savings and Investments to GDP(% at current market Prices)

[% C

ha

ng

e (

Tota

l In

com

e)]

FMCG

Glass & Glass Products

Computers-Hardware

Couriers

Air-Conditioners

Computers-Software-Large

Steel-Medium/Small

Diversified-Large

Diversified-Medium/Small

Steel-Sponge Iron

1.0 5.02.0 3.0 4.0

4.63

4.60

4.36

3.25

2.94

2.90

1.96

0.47

0.42

0.32

0.0

[% C

ha

ng

e (

Tota

l In

com

e)]

Food-Processing-India

Diamond Cutting / Jewellery

Textiles-Products

Computers-Software-Converts

Packaging

Healthcare

Automobiles-LCVs/HCVs

Computer-Education

Automobiles-Motorcycles/Mopeds

Tyres

1.0 402.0 3.00.0

37.97

37.17

36.93

34.94

33.01

32.78

30.12

29.56

27.19

23.66

Top 10 Slowest Moving Industries Top 10 Fastest Moving Industries

Party 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10

Gross Domestic Savings 33.5 34.6 36.9 32.2 33.7

Gross Capital Formation 34.7 35.7 38.1 34.5 36.5

Gross Fixed Capital 30.3 31.3 32.9 32.0 30.8

Savings-Investment Gap

Public Sector 2.4 3.6 5.0 0.5 2.1

Private Sector 31.0 31.0 31.9 31.7 31.6

Household Sector 23.5 23.2 22.5 23.8 23.5

Financial Savings 11.9 11.3 11.7 10.8 11.8

Savings in Physical Assets 11.7 11.9 10.8 13.1 11.7

Private Corporate Sector 7.5 7.9 9.4 7.9 8.1

Public Sector 7.9 8.3 8.9 9.5 9.2

Private Sector 25.2 26.4 28.1 24.6 24.9

Corporate Sector 13.6 14.5 17.3 11.5 13.2

Household Sector 11.7 11.9 10.8 13.1 11.7

Stocks 2.8 3.4 4.0 2.0 3.3

Valuables 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.7

Public Sector -5.5 -4.7 -3.9 -9.0 -7.0

Private sector 5.8 4.6 3.8 7.1 6.7

(Investment)

Formation

industrial growth has come down mainly because of

increase in interest rate.

The booster dose given by the government to fight

the recession has side effect and i.e. Inflation. To

check the inflation, government has to increase the

interest rate. The silver lining in this is increase in the

savings rate and drastical reduction in strikes and

lock-outs.

The recession in the western world affected the

whole world including India. However, India was not

affected much. Thanks to their local consumption

plus increase in middle class population. This helped

consumer industry such as food processing, diamond

jewellary, textile, computers, etc. to meet the

growing demand of middle class and helped to

increase industrial growth. However, recently

9

Page 12: A birds eye veiw   indian economy 2010-11

Indian Economy - 2011

A SYMBOL YOU CAN TRUST

Service Sector

2009-10

Other Services, 14.67%

Trade, 26.94%

Hotels & Rest., 2.53%

Railways, 1.81%

Transport, 9.40%

Storage, 0.18%

Commu., 2.71%

Bank & Ins., 9.76%

Real Estate, 20.61%

Public Admin., 11.36%

& Defense

Composition of Service Sector

USA

15.7%

UK

14.7%

Bangladesh

9.0%

Sri Lanka

4.7%

Canada

4.3%

France

3.8%

Other

36.0%

Japan

2.4%

Germany

3.8%

Australia

2.9%

Malaysia

2.6%

Tourist Arrival in India (in 2009)

Total Tourists = 5.1 mln

2004 2005 2006

0

4.0

2.0

8.0

6.0

12.0

10.0

14.0

(US

D B

illi

on

)

6.17

7.49

8.63

10.73

11.75 11.39

2009*2007 2008*

* Advance Estimate

2004-05 2005-06 2006-07

0

40

20

60

80

(US

D B

illi

on

)

2009-102007-08 2008-09

9.9

Domestic Market

Export Market

18.224.2

13.2

16.2

31.740.9

22.0

21.9

47.5 50.1

23.0

73.169.4

62.9

47.9

37.4

28.1

Tourist Arrival in India (in 2009) Earnings from Tourism

Growth of IT & IT Enabled Services

Performance of India’s Services Sector: Some Indicators

Sector Indicators Unit 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11

Aviation

Telecom

Tourism

Shipping

Ports

Railways

Storage

Airline Passengers Million 53.5 49.5 56.9 NA

Connections - Million 300.5 429.7 621.3 764.8(a)

Foreign Tourist Arrivals (FTA) Million 5.1* 5.3* 5.1* 5.6*

Foreign Exchange Earnings USD Mln 10,729* 11,750* 11,394 14,193*

Gross Tonnage of Indian Million GT 8.8* 9.3* 9.4* 10.1b

No. of Ships Numbers 867 925 1,003 NA

Port Traffic Mln Ton 521.5 532.5 562.7 416.6c

Freight Traffic by Railways Mln Ton 804.1 833.3 888.0 673.3d

Net Tonne KMs of Railways Billion 523.0 538.2 584.8 444.5d

Storage Capacity MT 98.8 105.3 106.0 NA

Warehouses Numbers 490 499 487 NA

(Domestic & Intl.)

wire line & wireless

from FTA

Shipping

* Calendar Years, e.g. 2007-08 for 2007

(a) April-November | (b) as on 01.09.10 | (c) April-October | (d) April-December

Sources: Directorate General of Civil Aviation, Telecom Regulatory Authority of India, Ministry of Tourism,

Ministry of Shipping, Ministry of Railways & Central Warehousing Corporation (Compiled by EXIM Bank of India)

Performance in Services Growth in 2009(of Top 12 Countries)

country Rank in Overall Share of Services

World - 58,069 64.2 -1.6

Services GDP** Services Growth*

GDP USD Bln % of GDP Rate (%)

India 12 1,287 52/55.2# 6.8

US 1 14,119 76.5 -3.1

Japan 2 5,069 71.0 -5.6

China 4 4,984 39.2 9.4

Germany 3 3,330 66.6 -1.4

France 5 2,649 71.1 -1.1

UK 6 2,170 70.5 -3.3

Italy 7 2,113 66.6 -2.0

Brazil 9 1,572 57.3 2.6

Spain 8 1,464 63.6 -1.0

Canada 10 1,336 65.5 -0.2

Russia 11 1,231 54.0 -5.1

* on Constant Prices (USD) ** at Current Prices

# In 2009-10 as per CSO, India.

Source : UN National A/c Statistics accessed on 4-Feb-2011

10

Page 13: A birds eye veiw   indian economy 2010-11

Indian Economy - 2011

A SYMBOL YOU CAN TRUST

Service Sector

10

6

8

12

(An

nu

al

Gro

wth

in

%)

2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10

Overall GDP Services GDP

Growth Rate of GDP & Service Sector GDP India's World Ranking in Services(As on FY 2010)

Sectors Attracting Highest FDI Equity Inflows

Ranks Sector 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 Cumulative % to Total

(Apr.- (Apr.- (Apr.-Mar.) Mar.) Dec.) Inflows (Apr-00 (In USD

Dec-10) terms)

1 Services Sector 6,138 4,353 2,853 26,454 21%

2 Computer Software & Hardware 1,677 919 670 10,601 8%

3 Telecommunications 2,558 2,554 1,327 10,258 8%

4 Housing & Real Estate 2,801 2,844 1,024 9,380 7%

5 Construction Activities 2,028 2,862 911 8,964 7%

(Financial & Non-Financial)

Mobile,

(including Roads & Highways)

(Radio Paging, Cellular basic Telephone Services)

Source : Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion.

2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09* 2009-10#

Trade, Hotels, & Restaurants 12.2 11 10 5.5 6.7

Transport, Storage 12.2 12.7 12.9 11.1 15.0

Financing, Insurance,

Community, Social & 7.0 2.9 6.9 12.7 11.8

Construction 12.8 10.3 10.7 5.4 7.0

Total Services

Overall GDP 9.5 9.6 9.3 6.8 8.0

Trade 11.7 10.7 9.7 6.5 7.2

Hotels & Restaurants 17.5 14.4 13.1 -3.1 2.2

Railways 7.5 11.1 9.8 7.6 9.4

Transport by Other Means 9.3 9.0 8.7 5.2 7.0

Storage 4.7 10.9 3.4 10.5 10.7

Communications 25.5 24.9 25.4 25.8 32.1

Banking & Insurance 15.9 20.6 16.7 14.0 11.3

Real Estate, Ownership

Public Administration and Defense 4.2 2.0 7.6 20.2 13.0

Other Services 9.1 3.5 6.3 7.4 10.9

Excluding Construction 11 10.1 10.3 10.1 10.1

Including Construction 11.2 10.1 10.4 9.5 9.7

& Communications

Real Estate & Business Services 12.7 14.0 11.9 12.5 9.2

Personal Services

of Dwellings & Business Services 10.6 9.5 8.4 11.2 7.5

Annual Growth in India’s Services in GDP at Factor Cost (in constant prices) (in %)

* Provisional Estimates # Quick Estimates Source : CSO

Service sector is becoming more and more important. The

performance of IT Sector is very impressive. Government is also

allocating more funds to infrastructure which in turn helps

industry and agriculture. The recession affected the service

sector but it grew at 6.8% where as some of the developed

countries had negative growth. However, the communication

sector has grown impressively and more than 50% of the Indians

are having land-line and/or cell phones.

Computer

Construction

Insurance

Financial

Information

Business

2

3

12

13

7

7

7

5

2

4

6

6

Export

Import

(Figures in USD Million)

11

Page 14: A birds eye veiw   indian economy 2010-11

Indian Economy - 2011

A SYMBOL YOU CAN TRUST

Deficit Finance

Revenue Receipts & Revenue Expenditure

Capital Receipts & Capital Expenditure Capital Receipts & Capital Expenditure

Revenue Receipts & Revenue Expenditure

Revenue Deficit Fiscal Deficit

2004-05 2009-10*2008-09

0

3.0

6.0

9.0

12.0

(IN

R T

rill

ion

)

2010-11#

3.06

3.84

5.40

7.94

5.75

9.08

6.82

9.59

Revenue Receipts Revenue Expenditure

* Provisional Actuals # Budgeted Estimates(Unaudited)

2004-05 2009-10*2008-09

0

4.0

8.0

12.0

16.0

(% o

f G

DP

)

2010-11#

Revenue Receipts Revenue Expenditure

9.7 9.7

8.8 8.7

12.2

13.914.2

12.2

* Provisional Actuals # Budgeted Estimates(Unaudited)

2004-05 2009-10*2008-09

0

1.0

2.0

4.0

3.0

5.0

(IN

R T

rill

ion

)

2010-11#

Capital Receipts Capital Expenditure

1.92

1.14

3.44

0.90

4.43

1.11

4.27

1.50

* Provisional Actuals # Budgeted Estimates(Unaudited)

2004-05 2009-10*2008-09

0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

(% o

f G

DP

)

2010-11#

Capital Receipts Capital Expenditure

3.6

1.6 1.7 1.9

5.4

6.8

6.26.1

* Provisional Actuals # Budgeted Estimates(Unaudited)

Primary Deficit(Fiscal Deficit Less Interest Payments)

04-05

0

0.5

1.0

3.0

2.5

1.5

2.0

3.5

10-11#09-10*08-09

0

1.0

2.0

6.0

(% o

f GD

P)

INR Trillion (Left Scale)

as % of GDP (Right Scale)

0.78

2.5

(IN

R T

rilli

on

)

* Provisional Actuals # Budgeted Estimates(Unaudited)

4.5

3.33

5.02.77

3.0

5.1

4.03.52.53

04-05

0

1.0

3.0

4.0

2.0

4.5

10-11#09-10*08-09

0

1.0

(IN

R T

rill

ion

)

* Provisional Actuals # Budgeted Estimates(Unaudited)

2.0

6.0

5.0

3.0

4.0

7.0

(% o

f GD

P)

INR Trillion (Left Scale)

as % of GDP (Right Scale)

1.26

3.37

4.12

3.81

4.0

6.0

6.3

4.8

1.0

2.0

1.5

0.5

2.5

10-11#09-10*08-09

0

0.5

3.5

(IN

R T

rill

ion

)

1.0

3.0

2.5

1.5

2.0

(% o

f GD

P)

1.451.33

2.6

3.1

1.7

04-05

-0.5

0-0.01

0.0

2.01

INR Trillion (Left Scale)

as % of GDP (Right Scale)

* Provisional Actuals # Budgeted Estimates(Unaudited)

12

Page 15: A birds eye veiw   indian economy 2010-11

Indian Economy - 2011

A SYMBOL YOU CAN TRUST

Deficit Finance

Deteriorating Current Account

* Provisional Actuals # Budgeted Estimates(Unaudited)

Major Subsidies

2009-10 2010-11

4.8

6.3

Fiscal Deficit(as % of GDP)

Bank Credits(in %, January)

2009-10 2010-11

23.2

14.8

Government Spending

2009-10 2010-11

11.4

12.0

(as % of GDP)Current A/c Deficit

2009-10 2010-11*

3.0

2.8

* Estimated

Trade Deficit

2009-10 2010-11*

3.0

2.8

* Estimated

(as % of GDP) (as % of GDP)

FY-06

0

-6

6

(as

% o

f G

DP

)

FY-11

-12

-7.7

-6.2

-1.2

5

-3

4.8

FY-07 FY-08 FY-09 FY-10

Trade Deficit Current A/c Deficit Invisibles

2007-08 2008-09 2010-11#2009-10*

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

1.2

1.0

0.8

1.4

(IN

R T

rill

ion

s) (% o

f GD

P)

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

2.2

2.0

1.8

2.4

Major Subsidies as % of GDP (Right Scale)Major Subsidies (Left Scale)

0.67 1.24 1.23 1.09

1.4

2.2

1.9

1.4

* Provisional # Budgeted Estimates

Fiscal Deficit(as % of GDP)

Revenue Deficit(as % of GDP)

* Revised Estimate # Budgeted Estimate + includes sale of 3G Spectrum + Exclude Defense Personnel, includes allowances and travel expenses

Gross Tax Revenue(INR Trillion)

Non Tax Revenue(INR Trillion)

Interest(INR Trillion)

Salaries+ & Pension(INR Trillion)

What it Means for the Government

6.4

5.1

4.6

3.4 3.4

5.2

6.25

7.87

9.32

1.16

2.20

1.25

2.13

2.41

2.68

1.53

1.51

1.61

2009-10 2010-11* 2011-12# 2009-10 2010-11* 2011-12# 2009-10 2010-11* 2011-12# 2009-10 2010-11*+ 2011-12# 2009-10 2010-11* 2011-12# 2009-10 2010-11* 2011-12#

13

Page 16: A birds eye veiw   indian economy 2010-11

Indian Economy - 2011

A SYMBOL YOU CAN TRUST

Inflation, Foreign Trade & Investments

Composition of Centre’s Revenue ExpenditureTrends in Centre’s Revenue Expenditure

2007-08 2008-09 2010-11#2009-10*

0

20

40

60

80

100

(Pe

rce

nta

ge

s)

28.824.2 23.3 25.9

11.4

9.1

18.2

32.5

15.6

9.2

15.6

35.4

13.6

10.0

15.5

37.6

11.4

9.1

16.1

37.4

Others Grants to State & UTs Defense Expenditure

Major Subsidies Interest Payments

* Provisional Estimates # Budgeted Estimates

2007-08 2009-10*2008-09

0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

(IN

R T

rill

ion

)

2010-11#

Defense Expenditure

Interest Payments

Major Subsidies Others

Grants to States & UTs

0.5

1.5

2.5

3.5

* Provisional Estimates # Budgeted Estimates

Foreign Exchange Reserves

2004-05 2007-08 2009-102008-09

0

4.0

8.0

12.0

16.0

(IN

R T

rill

ion

)

Foreign Currency AssetsGold, Reserve Tranche position in IMF & SDRs

5.93

11.96 11.5012.40

0.54

12.300.26

0.42 1.10

1.35

13.75

12.8412.38

6.19

12.60

2010-11*

* April to January

Interest on Internal Liabilities and Avg.Cost of Borrowings

External Debt Outstanding

2005-06 2006-07 2008-092007-08

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

(US

D B

illi

on

s)

Long Term (Left Scale)

2009-10*

119.6144.2

181.2209.9

45.7

178.7

19.5

28.1

43.4

52.5

262.3

224.4

172.4

139.1

224.5

Short Term (Left Scale)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

(Pe

rcen

tag

e)

10.1

4.7 4.84.4

5.5

Debt Service Ratio (Right Scale)

* Provisional Estimates # Quick Estimates

Debt GDP Ratio

2007-08 2008-09 2010-11#2009-01*

0

10

20

30

50

40

60

(% o

f G

DP

)

2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1

26.426.523.8

21.9

54.7 54.4

51.548.0

56.9 56.653.7

50.1

Total Outstanding Liabilities Market Borrowing (Part of Internal Liab.)

Internal Liabilities External Debt (Outstandings)

* Revised Estimates # Budgeted Estimates

2007-08 2008-09 2010-11#2009-10*

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

(IN

R T

rill

ion

s)

(% p

er a

nn

um

)

7.5

7.6

7.7

7.8

7.9

8.0

7.6 7.6

7.7

7.9

1.49

1.70

1.98

2.27

Interest on Internal liabilities (Left Scale)

Average Cost of Borrowings (Right Scale)

* Revised Estimate # Budgeted Estimate

14

Page 17: A birds eye veiw   indian economy 2010-11

Indian Economy - 2011

A SYMBOL YOU CAN TRUST

Inflation, Foreign Trade & Investments

Foreign Trade Latest Trend in FII Inflows

2006-07 2007-08 2009-102008-09

0

50

100

300

250

150

200

350

(US

D B

illi

on

)

2010-11*

12

6.4

1

18

5.7

3

16

3.1

3

18

5.2

9

17

8.7

5

16

4.7

0

25

1.6

5

30

3.6

9

28

8.3

7

24

6.7

2

Import Export

* April - December (Prov.)

Dec-10 Jan-11

0

1,000

2,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

6,000

Feb-11

551.8

5,364.0

96.1

Movement of Indian Rupee Time to take Note of Current A/c Imbalance, Foreign Funds Flows

Mar-04 Mar-08 Mar-10Mar-09

30

35

40

50

45

55

(Ru

pe

es)

43.98

Mar-11

39.89

51.76

45.00

45.29

USD 1 =

Direction of Imports & Exports (in 2009)

Imports Exports

Europe

19.32%

Africa

7.18%

America

10.22%

Asia & ASEAN

60.81%

CIS Baltics

2.12%

Unspecified

Region

0.34%

CIS Baltics

0.94%

Unspecified

Region

2.75%

Europe

21.55%

Africa

5.77%

America

15.03%

Asia & ASEAN

53.96%

05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10* 09-10# 10-11#

Export 12.6 13.6 13.4 15.4 13.2 13.9 14.5

Import 18.8 21.1 20.8 25.2 21.7 23.4 23.2

Trade Balance -6.2 -6.5 -7.4 -9.8 -8.6 -9.4 -8.8

Invisible Balance 5.0 5.5 6.1 7.5 5.8 7.2 5.1

Goods and -3.4 -3.4 -4.2 -5.4 -6.0 -6.2 -6.2

Current Account -1.2 -1.0 -1.3 -2.3 -2.8 -2.2 -3.7

Balance

External Commercial 0.3 1.7 1.8 0.7 0.2 1.0 0.1

B

FDI (Net) 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.6 1.4 0.9 1.7

Portfolio Investment 1.5 0.7 2.2 -1.2 2.4 3.8 2.5

Total Capital 3.0 4.7 8.6 0.5 3.8 3.9 4.8

Services Balance

orrowings

(Net)

Account (Net)

[as % of GDP (At Current Market Prices)]

The biggest problem against the government is

Revenue Deficit and Fiscal Deficit. The Revenue

Expenditure is increasing year after year and in

turn government debt is also increasing. The

stimulus package during recession has helped the

industry to maintain but its side-effect is Inflation.

The Foreign Trade also has trade deficit and it

brings pressure on government to borrow more

funds and this has increased the average cost of

borrowing.

* Partially Revised # April-September

15

Page 18: A birds eye veiw   indian economy 2010-11

Indian Economy - 2011

A SYMBOL YOU CAN TRUST

Population

Population Growth & Literacy Rate

* Literacy Rate available till 2000-01 # Provisional

0

100

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2004-05 2007-08 2009-10#2008-09*

Food, Beverages & Tobacco

(in

Pe

rce

nta

ge

)

Miscellaneous Goods & Services

Clothing & Footwear

Gross Rent, Fuel & Power

Furniture, Furnishings, etc.

Medical Care & Health Services

Transport & Communication

Recreation, Education & Cultural Services

40.036.4 34.9 32.6

6.6

8.07.9

7.7

11.611.8

12.213.8

3.4

4.14.3

4.6

4.8

19.818.618.4

19.3

5.0

4.84.7

3.0

3.13.2 3.2

15.714.613.08.9

* Provisional estimates # Quick estimates

Composition of Private Consumption Expenditure

High & Middle Income Households

1985-86 1993-94 2007-082001-02

0

40

80

160

120

200

(in

Mil

lio

n)

1.4

2009-10

Middle Income

High Income

46.743.3

140.7

As the Consuming Classes Swell in Numbers ...

Most Populous Countries in the World

The growth of middle class people is increasing and it isreflected in the consumption expenditure. Now in India,Number of middle income group is increasing very fastand it has changed the pattern of style, particularly inconsumable goods, ...etc.

For the first time after many years the non-life insurancepenetration has gone to 0.66% from 0.60%. People havealso become aware of security and it is reflected in lifeinsurance premium, medical and healthcare

1951

0

10

20

70

60

50

30

40

80

201120011991198119711961

0

(in P

erce

nta

ge

)

Population (Left Scale) Literacy Rate (Right Scale)

(in

Bil

lio

n)

0.360.43

0.54

0.68

0.84

1.02

1.21

0.2

0.4

1.2

1.0

0.6

0.8

1.4

18.33

28.30

34.45

43.57

52.21

64.84

74.00

Japan - 1.9%

Russia Fed.- 2.0%

Nigeria - 2.3%

Bangladesh - 2.4%

US - 4.5%

Brazil - 2.8%

Indonesia - 3.4%

Pakistan - 2.7%

India

17.5%China

19.4%

Others

41.1%

At 1.21 bl, India’s population is almost equal to the combined

populations of US, Indonesia, Brazil, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Japan

Sex Ratio (Females per ‘000 Male)

1961 1971 1981 20111991 2001

976

964 962

945

927 914

940933

927

934930

941

0-6 Years

Overall Ratio

16

Page 19: A birds eye veiw   indian economy 2010-11

Indian Economy - 2011

A SYMBOL YOU CAN TRUST

Population

Annual Sale of some Consumer Products

2005

0

1

2

7

6

5

3

4

8

(% o

f GD

P)

2009200820072006

0.57

0.59

0.61

0.65

0.63

0.67

(US

Do

lla

r)

4.4

5.2

6.2 6.2 6.7

0.61

0.60 0.60 0.60

0.66

Density (Left Scale) Penetration (Right Scale)

2006-07 2007-08 2009-102008-09

0

5

10

20

15

25

(in

Pe

rce

nta

ge

s)

2010-11*

6.5

Gross Domestic Product Gross Direct Premium (Non-Life)

Inflation

4.8

5.93

3.6

9.4*9.6 9.3

6.8**

8.0#

22.5*

16.9

10.1

12.3

20.8

8.6+

20010

10

20

50

30

40

60

(US

Do

lla

rs)

Non-LifeLife

9.1

11.5

20092002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

11.7 12.9 15.718.3

33.240.4 41.2

47.7

6.7

6.26.2

5.2

4.44.0

3.53.0

2.4

14.7 16.419.7

22.7

38.4

46.6 47.4

54.4

20010

1.0

2.0

5.0

3.0

4.0

6.0

(% o

f G

DP

)

20092002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

5.39

Non-LifeLife Total

4.604.604.70

3.143.182.88

3.26

2.71

2.15

2.592.26

2.53 2.53

4.10 4.00 4.00

4.73

0.660.600.600.600.610.650.620.670.56

Non-Life Insurance Density & Penetration Gross Domestic Product, Gross Direct Premium & Inflation

Insurance Density Insurance Penetration

2007 2009

0

1

2

5

4

3

6

(in

Mil

lio

n)

2011*

1.9

0.3

2.5

1.5

3.6

4.8Air Conditioners

LCD Televisions

* Projected

... Sale of Consumer Products Break New Records

Sale of Consumer Non-Durables

-15

-10

0

-5

20

15

5

10

25

(Pe

rce

nta

ge

)

Rural

Urban

21.0

8.0

2003 2005 2006 20102007 2008 20092004

... and a significant chunk of future consumer

demand will come from rural areas

* Apr-Dec ‘10 (Prov.& Unaudited) ** Prov. Est. # Quick Est. + Adv. Est.

17

Page 20: A birds eye veiw   indian economy 2010-11

Co

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d, M

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sig

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d b

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We

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We are from the office.

He asked us to get the sanction of his superior

We are from the office.

He asked us to get the sanction of his superior

KALPANA PAREKH