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On-board connectivity continues apace, as the new ‘in-flight must-have’ for both passengers and crew. As it becomes the default expectation for next generation travelers, tablets and mobile devices in the air will impact passenger service levels and customer satisfaction as much as they are on the ground. From an operational point of view, what are the IT needs for the cabin, cockpit and data handling to ground? What innovations can we expect, and how do we see the development of new services for keeping customers happy and loyal? www.sita.aero/surveys A revolution in the air – improving the flying experience: David Stewart, ICF International
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ICF International | icfi.com © ICF 2014 11
Connected Aircraft Outlook and Opportunities
June, 2014
Presented by:
David StewartGlobal Lead, Aerospace & MRO Practice ICF International
ICF International | icfi.com © ICF 2014 22
Fleet Development
ICF International | icfi.com © ICF 2014 3
Over the next decade, the fleet will grow to 31,000 with over 11,300 new generation IP-enabled aircraft
FLEET DEVELOPMENT
Air Transport Jet Fleet Development2013 vs 2022
Highlights
ICF forecasts average air travel growth of 3.9% through 2023
~940 extra active aircraft per year
~900 annual retirements by 2023
Huge growth of new generation aircraft – 42% CAGR
How much of the current mature fleet might be retrofitted?
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
2013 2023
Mature - Out ofProduction, -7.8%Mature - InProduction, 1.7%
Excludes TurbopropsSource: ICF SH&ENew: A380, 747-8, 787, 777X, A350, A320neo, 737MAX, EJets E2, CSeries, C919, ARJ21, MRJ, MS-21, Superjet
Aircraft Fleet
CAGR
Total = 3.6%
ICF International | icfi.com © ICF 2014 4
The rapid ramp-up of New Gen aircraft will accelerate the demand for new e-enabled services
FLEET DEVELOPMENT
Air Transport Production Forecast
Introduction and rapid build up of A320NEO and 737 Max Introduction and build up of A350XWB, 787, 777X
Source: ICF SH&E
“Our aircraft management approach will be vastly different on the 787”
European long haul airline
Narrowbody (Units)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600A320
A320NEO
B737
B737 MAX
C919
CSeries
MS-21
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180A330
A350XWB
A380
B748
B767
B777
B777X
B787
Widebody (Units)
ICF International | icfi.com © ICF 2014 5
Come 2033, the New Gen fleet will be huge - over 29,000 aircraft or 75%FLEET DEVELOPMENT
New Gen
Others
2033 Air Transport Jet Fleet(38,600 total)
Source: ICFI analysis.
Excludes Turboprops
Highlights
ICF forecasts the total Air Transport jet fleet to be 38,600 by 2033
29,000 (75%) of these will be new generation platforms
ICF International | icfi.com © ICF 2014 66
E-enabled opportunities
ICF International | icfi.com © ICF 2014 7
New technologies will drive greater operational efficiency and facilitate better schedule reliability and enhanced services for the passenger
AIRCRAFT AND CREW OPERATIONS IMPLICATIONS
Functionalities affected by new technologies
Flight Management
Inter-operability. EFB, connectivity and data analytics
Impacting ATM, fuel and operational efficiencies
Operations Control Passenger Service
To protect aircraft and schedule integrity…
By coordinating flight, crews, passenger, maintenance and ground operations
Data exchange and analytics enable better on- and off-board decision making
Information management and data analytics
Impacting connection management and enabling improved service opportunities on- and off-board
Significant utilization, operations, cost and on-board service benefits
ICF International | icfi.com © ICF 2014 8
E-enabled technologies in maintenance will additionally reduce costs and facilitate better schedule reliability for passengers
Functionalities affected by new technologies
Line maintenance
17 % of airline MRO spend
Handheld devices being introduced
Significant time savings by providing mechanics access to information at the aircraft
Maintenance planning Health management
Supply chain management
Technical document management
30% of MRO systems are legacy
New aircraft types drive adoption of new systems
Mobile technology, electronic task cards and xml will improve updates of- and interaction between systems
Traditionally used for ex-post reliability diagnostics
Advances in data generation and analytics will enable prognostics and predictive maintenance
Provides design feedback for OEMs
MRO supply chain holds $47B of inventory
More EDI and RFID technology, automation and visibility/traceability can decrease work in progress, increase pooling and increase inventory utilization
Widespread use of services that scan paper records and make them available
ETL/EFB, cloud services and mobile devices will change generation, handling and storage of technical records
AIRCRAFT MAINTENANCE IMPLICATIONS
A key issue for resolution: who owns the data?
ICF International | icfi.com © ICF 2014 9
Opportunities exist to improve passenger experience significantlyCABIN AND PASSENGER IMPLICATIONS
THE FUTURE IFE?
Seamless experience from ticketing to arrival
Easy to use systems, consistent with experience elsewhere
Use of (tablet) device at all times
Security
Access to early release content?
Power/re-charging availability
“Airlines will no longer be hardware providers, rather connectivity providers”
ICF International | icfi.com © ICF 2014 10
What else does the future hold?CABIN AND PASSENGER IMPLICATIONS
Cabin environment control?
Lighting controls
Attendant call & drinks/ meal pre-orders and requests
Customized content & entertainment
VOIP or GSM calling
Shopping experience
Reliable, capable and affordable IP connectivity to ground throughout flight will be critical
ICF International | icfi.com © ICF 2014 11
The challenge to airlines and equipment suppliers is to keep up with passenger expectations
CABIN AND PASSENGER IMPLICATIONS
Expectation of being constantly engaged
and connected
Expectation of faster and more
reliable connection speeds
Expectation of the “latest and
greatest”
Expectation of affordability and value
Source: digitalnewsasia.com
ICF International | icfi.com © ICF 2014 12
David StewartHead of Aerospace and
MROWatling House
33 Cannon StreetLondon EC4M 5SB
United Kingdom
+44 (0)20 3096 4931
Thank You!
DISCLAIMER
Any use, republication or redistribution of this content is
expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of the
Author. Permission to copy and reproduce content may be
granted by the author, at their discretion, and by request only.
Source: presentation of David Stewart, ICF International at the
2014 SITA Air Transport IT Summit, Brussels.
2014 Air Transport IT Summit
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