Africa4.0Opportuni*esforAfricafromIndustry4.0?CapeTown|13October2017 Theworld’sleadingopenforesightprogram

Context–Africa4.0Withtherapidevolu*onofdigitalopportuni*es,thereisgrowingexpecta*on

thatIndustry4.0couldhaveadrama*cimpactonAfrica.Willit?CanithelpshiJAfricafromleapfroggingtoleading?Wherearethebiggestopportuni*es?

OverviewThistalklooksatsomeofthekeyIndustry4.0changesthatareemerging.ItaskswhereandhowtheymayimpactAfricainthefutureandwhatare

someofthekeychallengesandopportuni*esthatlieahead.

Africa4.0

Implica*ons Ques*ons

FutureAfrica

Challenges Opportuni*es

Industry4.0

ThePromise ExampleImpacts

Foresightvs.Insight

FutureAgendaTheFutureAgendaistheworld’slargestopenforesightprogram.

Runasaglobaldialogueacrossallcon*nents,itaccessesmul*pleviewsofthenextdecadesowecanallbebeQerinformedandsos*mulateinnova*on.

Industry4.0

Manufacturing’sNextActSmartfactoriesfeaturedecentralizedsystemsthatcollaboratewitheachotherwithexcep*onallevelsofproduc*vityandquality.Componentmanufacture,assembly,tes*ngandpackagingareallmoreflexible,faster,cheaperandmoreeffec*ve.

Automa?onBeyondtheFactoryOutsidetheSmartFactory,manyarepreparingforaworldinwhichtheInternetof

Things,AI,machinelearningandautonomousvehicles,alloperatewithinanincreasinglyconnectedworld–wheredataanddigitalinfrastructuresdominate.

EverythingConnectedOver1trillionsensorsareconnectedtomul*plenetworks:everythingthatcanbenefitfromaconnec*onhasone.Wedeliver10,000xmoredata100xmore

effec*velybutareconcernedaboutthesecurityofinforma*onflow.

RealTimeAnaly?csPervasivedatasharingcombineswithreal*meanalysisandmachinelearning

toprovideallpar*eswithdiagnos*csandpredica*ononvehiclesafety,op*malschedulingoftrains,andmaintenanceandself-repairofequipment.

MachineLearningTakingControlWiththeriseofAIandautonomouscompu*ng,machinelearningis

increasinglyputincontrolofmanagingourenergysystems–quicklyrealizingefficiencysavingsofaround50%insomesectors.

DigitalMoneyCashcon*nuestobegraduallyreplacedbydigitalmoney,providing

consumerswithmoreconvenienceandchoice–andorganisa*onswithlowercosttransac*ons.Wideradop*onenablesnewofferstoproliferate.

DataOwnershipIndividualsrecognizethevalueoftheirdigitalshadows,privacyagentscurateclients’datasetswhilepersonaldatastoresgiveustransparentcontrolofourinforma*on:Weretainmoreownershipofourdataandopttoshareit.

BuildingDataMarketplacesDataisacurrency,ithasavalueandaprice,andthereforerequiresamarketplace.Anecosystemfortradingdataisemergingandanything

thatisinforma*onisrepresentedinanewdatamarketplace.

GrowingCyberTerrorismDigitalmanufacturingandtransportsystemsbecomeincreasinglypopular

targetsforhackersandcyberterrorists.Pervasiveconnec*vityandweaksecurityprovideevermoreopenbackdoorsforsustaineddenialofservice.

FutureAfrica

AfricaGrowthWithalandmassbiggerthanIndia,China,theUSandEuropecombined,fewdoubtthescaleofAfricaanditsresources.However,un*lrecently,onlysomehaveseenthepoten*alinthegrowthmarketsthatsomeSSAna*onsarefastbecoming.

EquitableEconomicGrowthSomeoftheworld’sfastestgrowingeconomiesaretobefoundinAfrica–butsoalsoaremanyofthena*onswiththefastestgrowingpopula*ons.

Ensuringthattheeconomicgrowthbenefitsallisseenasachallengeformany.

ImpactsofClimateChangeAstheworldwarmsbybetween2oCand4oC,Africaisexpectedtowarmupto1.5*mesfasterthattheaverage.Keyimplica*onsincludefloodinginDaresSalaamandLagos,severedroughts,lowerfoodyieldsandthemigra*onoftenofmillionsnorth.

ModernizingLongDistanceNetworksTransporta*oncostsadd50%to75%inRwanda,MalawiandUganda.Upgradinginterna*onalroadsandarevivalofrailisahighprioritybutthepaybackforChinainfundingmuchofthisraisesmanyques*ons.

DigitalConnec?vityinAfricaAcrossdifferentAfricanna*ons,thecurrentlevelsofdigitalconnec*vityvaries

significantly.SSAaccountsfor1/10ofglobalmobilesubscribersandisexpectedtogrowfasterthateveryotherregionoverthenextfiveyears.

SmartphonePenetra*on(GSMA2017)

3G/4GNetworkCo

verage

MobilePenetra?on

<50%

50-75%

>75%

SouthAfrica

100%

50%

50%25%0%

Nigeria

Sudan

AFRICA

GLOBAL

ECOWAS

ECCAS

EAC

SADC

Tanzania

LeapfroggingtoLeadersSomeAfricaneconomiesdomorethancatchup.Aswithmobiletelecoms,

theyareadop*ngnewenergysystemsearly,leapfroggingtheWestwithsomerapidlyalsobecomingleadersinlow-costservicestoagrowingmiddleclass.

KenyaAlreadyLeadingDuetothesuccessofm-Pesa,Kenyaiswidelyrecognizedasaleadinghubformobilepayments.Movingahead,withincreasedinvestmentandinterestfromthelikesofFacebook,Nairobimaywellbecomeoneoftheworld’smostinnova*veci*es.

Africa4.0

Op?mizedSolarIncorpora*ngAIalgorithmsintothemanagementofsolarsupplyanddemand

networkscansignificantlyimproveefficiencyofenergyconsump*onvialocalizedsmartgrids-whereeveryoneisanenergyproducerandconsumer.

Op?misingLastMileDeliverySeamless,integratedandsharedlast-miledeliveryreplacesinefficient

compe**onandduplica*onofgoodsdistribu*on.Greaterefficiencyinmovingthingsisasimportantasinmovingpeopleandsoamajorfocusforinnova*on.

FinancialInclusionImprovingaccessto,aswellastrustin,newbankingplamormsisexpectedtosignificantlyenhancefinancialinclusion.Fromaregulatoryperspec*ve,DRCis

alreadyseenasoneofthemostproac*vena*onsintheworldformobilepayments.

Fric?onlessCurrencyTransferToimprovetradeflowsenhancinginterna*onalremiQancepaymentsisamajorfocus.

Usingacombina*onofmobileandbitcoin,morearelookingtoavoidhighbankchargesasnewdigitalforexexchangesareemergingfastacrossthecon*nent.

SmartGovernmentManyarehopingthatgreaterICTaccessandbroadbandadop*onwillimprove

governmentefficiencyandtransparency.Withtheprivatesectorasapriority,theSmartAfricaManifestohasbeenendorsedbymostandpartnershipsareinmo*on.

DigitalIden??esAsmul*-factorbiometricsandwidespreadfingerprintdriveniden*tyverifica*ontakeshold,authen*ca*onandengagementofthewiderpopula*onincreases.

AsinIndia,digitaliden**esmaywellopenthedoortothemainstream.

TheRiseofMachinesThegrowthintheintelligenceandcapabili*esofmachinespresentsbothathreatandanopportunity:GreaterAIandautoma*onwillfreeup*me,butalsothreatenjobs:Alreadyshortof1mengineers,bridgingthedigitalskillsgapisanAfricapriority.

HealthcareEfficiencyWithgreaterlevelsofmobilehealth,remotesupportisextendingreach,reducing

costsandimprovinghealthcareefficiency.AfricaandIndiaarebothseenasleadersforstart-upspartneringwithnetworkstoimprovecompliance,stockandaffordability.

DroneDeliveryWithearlysuccessofpilotsinRwanda,thedeliveryofbloodproductsand

vaccinesbydroneisbeingsupportedasamajorchangeagentforpublichealth.Addingreaterautoma*onandnaviga*onandtheimpactscalessignificantly.

AgriculturalProduc?vityWithincreasingaccesstoreal*meanaly*csanddatavisualisa*on,morefarmersareabletobeQeralignirriga*onandfer*lizeruseandsoimproveyields.InGhanaandCameroonshareddataisreducingpriceasymmetryandloweringpaymentcosts.

LandAdministra?onFewAfricanfarmerscurrentlyhaverightsoverthelandtheywork.Adop*ngadigitalapproach,suchasblock-chain,toassignandmanagerightsmaybetransforma*onal

– unlocking‘darkcapital’cansignificantlyimproveyieldsandinvestment.

RiskMi?ga?onAcrossacon*nentofmanyna*ons,managingriskisanincreasingfocus.

BeQerregionalintegra*onisseenasacorecomponentasiswideradop*onofdigitaliden**esforpayments,socialsecurityandci*zenship.

DeeperCollabora?onPartnershipsshiJtobecomemoredynamic,long-term,democra*sed,

mul*-partycollabora*ons.Compe*toralliancesandwiderpublicpar*cipa*ondriveregulatorstocreatenewlegalframeworksforopen,empathe*ccollabora*on.

FiveQues?onsforAfrica4.0

SystemEfficiencyWhatlevelsofimpactfromAfrica4.0canbeexpectedinkeyareasoftheeconomy?

Whicharemostopentochange,whichhavethegreatestpoten*alforchangeandwhichhavetheabilitytodrivethechangemosteffec*vely?

Disrup?onPoten?alAsmoreentrepreneursbecomeconnectedandenabledtoinnovate,whatsectors

willbethosemostopentomajordisrup*onandreinven*onandwhichwillnurturestart-upsabletohavesignificantimpactontheglobalstage?

SharingtheBenefitsAstheinfluenceofAfrica4.0spreadsandimprovesefficiencyandimpact,furthereconomicgrowthwillfollow.Howwillthebenefitsbesharedmoreequitablyacrossthewholeofsocietyandnotjustbetweentheleadership?

China’sExtendingInfluenceChinaisalreadyAfrica’sbiggesttradingpartnerandisbehindmuchofthenewinfrastructureinvestments.Howwillna*onsbestmanagethisrela*onshipinthedigitalworldandpreventitfrombeingthe21stcenturyversionofcoloniza*on?

GovernmentCollabora?onDatadoesnotrecognizena*onalboundaries.Itflowswhereveritiswanted.

HowcanAfricangovernmentsandindustriesimprovecollabora*ononAfrica4.0toenablethepoten*alofdigitaliza*onbeingdiscussedtobestberealized?

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