Analyzing and Managing Environmental Problems

Where The World Stand Now

Introduction

• What is the Theory of Demographic Transition?

• Model used to explain the present variability in the global population growth rates.

• Pre-Modern Period-• Numbers are static with birth rates and

death rates broadly equal.

• Modernization-

• It is marked by a period of rapid population growth.

• Post-Modern Period

• It heralds renewed stability and low birth and death rates

• Real significance of demographic transition model is the implication that once modernization is complete, the population of developing countries will also settle down.

• Current trends suggest that stabilization could occur between the second quarter of the next century when world population is between 10-12 billion.

How will this affect the Environment

• Population induced pressure on the environment which is relative to the level of technology and standards of living.

• Poses a major problem for World Environmental Management as the people of the developing world also aspire for high living standards, where there’s a trade-off between natural resources for greater standards.

Hence the environment will be in double-jeopardy, from a possible doubling of the population in the next 50 years and from growing affluence in those countries where living standards are relatively low presently.

IMPACT OF GROWING POPULATION ON NATURAL RESOURCES

6 Billion 10 Billion

Rate=1.5% per year

Year 2040

Natural Environment LandWaterEnergy Biological resources

Rapidly degraded

Deforestation - Arable land eroded at R >10000000 hectares per year

Fossil energy resources - will be depleted in 30-40 years

Loss of biodiversity - 150 species are being lost daily rate 1000 to 10000 times faster than the normal extinction rate

Overuse of surface and ground water-Colorado river in western USA, pumped dry before empty into ocean

World food situation is becoming critical-More than 2 billion humans are malnourished and live under unhealthy conditions

Number of humans who are diseased is the largest ever-40000 children die each day from disease and malnutrition

STEPS

Reassess status of environmental resources Promoting integrating approaches to sustainable resource management, ecosystem approach, forest land restoration Reforming local institutions, strengthening governmentaccountability and enhancing competence in internationalDelegations Support of technological innovation.

Steps Contd..

Efforts in International Cooperation. Social and ecological standards within existing international economic treaties (e.g. WTO) Accountability and ethical responsibility must be improved at all levels.

Population and Consumption of Resources

Population Growth and Effects

• Similar requirements yet different consumption levels

• Limited number of resources available per capita

• Rapid population growth• India and China sharing major one-third

population of world• With declining resources, population

growth to be hampered

Consumption Difference

• Citizens of developed nations consume more per capita resources than developing nations

• Americans use more fossil fuel and lesser human energy than other nations

• Such disparities would affect development and growth

• Developing nations would not have plenty resources to achieve living standards of developed nations

Overconsumption

• Heavy reliance on fossil fuels for industry, transportation, home heating and food production in America

• Whereas, in China fossil fuel used mainly in industry and in food production

• American citizen uses 12 times more fossil fuel than Chinese and 7 times the world average

Overconsumption Contd..

• Such exploitation will deplete resources• America already has declining standards

of living with similar future projections• Shortages of fertile land, water and fossil

fuel in many regions of the world• This should definitely serve as a warning

Thank YouSubmitted By: (Group 2)

Aadil Ahmed (01)Akshay Gopal (07)Divya Bhardwaj (31)

Other members:Debapriya Waddadar (27)Kriti Wadhwa (42)Sakshi Sidhana (76)Nitin Baranwal (55)Rajat Gupta (66)