Beer news and shopper marketing

[email protected] +447453323623 Radius Global EMEA 1

clear thinking in a complex world


Of the £99m increase in total UK sales of alcoholic drinks in 2013, £64.6m came from new products and brand extensions.

SABMiller is focusing product innova=on in the beer and cider categories include: -‐

-‐ CraB beers

-‐ Flavoured beers -‐ Beer cocktails

-‐ High alcohol beers

Harvey & Son wants to access a younger

adult drinker audience, who are

increasingly engaging in the trend for microbreweries,

specialist beverages and seasonal variants, without aliena=ng the brewery’s loyal fan

base -‐ the "tradi=onal ale drinker".

Fuller Smith & Turner the most recent

innova=on at Fuller’s has been to redesign the boLle and badge of its single unit off-‐trade product -‐ the objec=ve here was to translate the brand’s high visibility and

popularity in the on-‐trade market into off-‐

trade sales.

Fyne Ales key focus here is developing a loyal fan base and a leveraging its heritage appeal, and added that obviously

ensuring high visibility within the venues in which its beers are distributed is key.


Recent beer innovation trends

Sustainable packaging

Beer cocktails -‐ cas=ng a different light on the category.

The next stage of flavours

The emo=onal connec=on to local products

Mimicking the “theatre” of on-‐trade


Recent beer innovation trends

�  Sustainable packaging - the drinks market is saturated with the latest easy-to-open bottles and cool designs, but another consideration is how to make innovative packaging that's as sustainable as it is “cool.”

�  Beer cocktails - casting a different light on the category and opening it up to a wider audience, including more women - brands need to be careful not to alienate their core audiences here however.

�  The next stage of flavours – have fruit beers jumped the shark with the release of Carlsberg’s blackcurrant beer? The spirit segment led the way here and many feel the concept has run its course.

�  The emotional connection to local products – linked to the rise of craft breweries which is a theme running through many of our conversations. The key point is that consumer behaviour is changing, and local craft beers offer a product they can build an emotional connection with.

�  Mimicking the “theatre” of on-trade – e.g. Fuller’s redesign of its bottle and badge to translate the brand’s high visibility and popularity in the on-trade market into off-trade sales.


Two new shopper ideas

Google job-‐swappers have started adop=ng P&G’s lingo. During a session on evalua=ng in-‐store displays, a P&G marketer described the company’s standard method, known as “stop, hold, close”: Product packaging first needs to “stop” a shopper, Mr. Lich=g said. “Hold” is a pause to read the label, and “close” is when a shopper puts the product in the cart. Google’s Ms. Chudy gasped. “This is just like our text ads,” she said. The headline is the “stop,” its descrip=on is the “hold” and the “close” is clicking through to the Web site. “This is going to get so much easier, now that I’m learning their language,” she said.

“stop, hold, close” via packaging

Bloomingdale’s, for instance, billboards the smell of baby powder in its infant-‐clothing department, while hints of lilac waB around the department store’s in=mate-‐apparel displays. American upscale ice cream chain Emack & Bolio’s recently adopted a waffle-‐cone smell to aLract patrons to the scoop shop within their Hard Rock Hotel branch, where sales had been flagging. The effect? Ice cream sales shot up more than a third.

“billboarding” via scents


70% of all purchase decisions are made at point of purchase?

How true is this statement?

Where’s the evidence?

Do you believe that? Beer 50%

Healthcare 25%

Pre-‐loaded brain Adver=sing Social media

Brand preference Experiences


#3 ROI


The 3rd wise monkey…�

#3 ROI

3. Providing sensible ROI measures for the traditional in-store activity, and a good testing research process to allow you to simulate/optimise.�

3. Build a set of key touch point measures, not just awareness and purchase, but throughout the whole shopper journey.�

Which means we need to…


Case study example…

The beer simula=on allowed us to prove theore=cally that the right tap line up would add 6 percent to the boLom line using the op=mal simula=on. That's an example that came to mind.


Which in turn means we need to…�

#1 �Identify the

true drivers of brand choice = emotional and

attitudinal measures�

----- �Via deep depth

qualitative ethnography �

#2��

Segment these drivers by…�

�Drivers of SWITCH �

�Drivers of CHOICE�

#3��

Measure and create KPIs

based on emotional and

attitudinal factors within the purchase tree/decision

process. �


We do this by…�

#1 �In-depth

genuine qual = in-home

ethnography & shopper

ethnography �

#2��

Measuring the drivers and creating new on-going KPIs�

#3��

Measuring quantitativeley, �


Our Shopper Tracking looks at the full purchase journey

On observa=on we found that smelling product was a cri=cal touch point.

We got them to make self videos of their shopping experience.

They even made videos of themselves using the product.


ROI – Spend wisely not just on price promotions!

Traditional Media TV

Radio Publications

Word of Mouth Recommendations Requests Joint Decisions

Digital Media Social Networks Retail Websites

Discussion Groups Promotions

Sales Coupons In-Store

Product Characteristics Pricing Brand

Previous Experience

We use Heuris=cs to understand the purchase decisions and iden=fy the key touch and switch points

Decision Pathways™ is used to determine the rela=ve importance of different drivers on the purchase decision i.e. magazines, mobile, online, print etc., on choice of purchase.


‘What If?’ simulator to op=mise on-‐draught beer selec=o nand measure the effect of range cannibalisa=on.

Case Study Key Findings


Case Study: Key Findings

�  Overall, customer experiences outside of the grocery store, both before and after a XXX shopping occasion, have the most impact on customer engagement.

•  Stage 1: Initial Contact and Stage 5: Post-Shopping are the most important areas of the purchase process.

•  Key touch points within the Initial Contact stage include: »  ”XXX advertisement on TV" »  “XXX website” »  “Friends' advice or recommendation about XXX”

•  "Frequent XXX purchaser program" in Stage 5: Post-Shopping is the top motivator in the entire category.

�  For Brand X as a whole, there is strongest delivery on touch points related to loyalty programs, advertising and certain beer displays.

•  For these attributes two or more Brand X brands perform well, though category leader Bud Light tends to outshine Brand X in many of these aspects and others.

�  Opportunity exists to generate greater affinity for each of Brand X’s xxx brands by improving performance in key areas where a brand’s delivery is currently lagging.

•  For example, incremental affinity for Coors Light can be achieved by improving delivery of “xxx website” and “Friends’ advice or recommendation about xxx”.

»  As each brand currently presents its own set of strengths and weaknesses, strategies should be evaluated for each brand independently.

Latent Class delivers true factors which drive purchase choice


�  While there is an overall pathway of ini=a=on through decision for all customers, in the switching process, customer needs and provider reac=ons may differ. Given this, we look to dive deeper into understanding and classifying the various ways in which customers arrive at the decision to switch service providers.

A few things to note:

•  These pathways are NOT personas or segments of customers. The same customer can fall into a different Pathway with different buying situa=ons.

•  They ARE mindsets that encompass the factors and criteria that are part of a buying decision.

•  These Pathways are created in the following manner:

o  Asking customers to recall the details of the decision to shop around for a new service provider and iden=fying common paLerns in the decision process based on factors that were considered.

o  Profiling the pathways for other key informa=on (i.e., customer type, behaviors, etc.)

o  Reviewing the pathways to determine how well-‐differen=ated they are and how well they create a cohesive story.

�  Using Latent Class analysis that looks across all switching occasions, we quan=fy and formalize the various decision scenarios that customers face and provide a plaoorm for delving into the dynamics of these decisions to beLer understand influencers, mo=vators, etc.

Differen=a=ng the Decision Pathways


�  Latent class analysis (LC) can best be thought of as an “improved” cluster analysis, which uses sta=s=cal (rather than mathema=cal) methodology to construct the results. The main difference from K means is that cases are not absolutely assigned to classes, but have a probability of membership for each class.

�  LC clustering is a model based approach. An advantage of using a sta=s=cal model is that the choice of the cluster criterion is less arbitrary, and the approach includes rigorous sta=s=cal tests. In the case of K means, the researcher must determine the number of classes without relying on formal diagnos=c sta=s=cs since none are available. In LC modeling, various sta=s=cs are available that can assist in choosing one model over another.

�  Variables included in the analysis can be of any type: ordinal, mul=-‐category, counts, con=nuous. No decisions have to be made about the scaling of the observed variables. This is very different from standard non-‐hierarchical cluster methods like K-‐means, where scaling is always an issue.

�  To summarize, the main advantages of Latent Class are:

•  We can use mixture of variables of different types

•  Rescaling or standardizing data is not an issue

•  There are more formal criteria to decide on the number of clusters and chose the best solu=ons

•  Some assump=ons about distribu=ons (i.e., equal variances) can be relaxed

Behind the Scenes of Crea=ng Decision Pathways

NEW YORK ALBANY

CHICAGO INDIANAPOLIS

KANSAS CITY

LONG BEACH ORLANDO

PHILADELPHIA

SAN FRANCISCO

Overview of Decision Pathway™ Approach

Prepared for:


What Decision Pathways™ Means to Your Business

�  Iden=fy the various paths by which consumers make decisions in your category

�  Determine where you can best influence their purchase decisions

�  Focus resources around paths that are most prevalent and most advantageous for your brand

�  Maximize your use of touch points and other influencers

�  Impact the decision process in ways that boost brand selec=on


The Decision Process

�  The opportunities for you to engage with your customers and prospects are complex and ever increasing

Traditional Media •  TV •  Radio •  Publications

Digital Media •  Social Networks •  Retail Websites •  Discussion

Groups •  Mobile Promotions

•  Sales •  Coupons •  In-Store

Word of Mouth •  Recommendations •  Requests •  Joint Decisions

Product Characteristics

•  Pricing •  Brand •  Previous Experience


The Challenge

23

Decision Pathway Analysis

�  Consumers follow different pathways of discovery and investigation in coming to your offering


Benefits of Understanding the Process

24


�  Understanding the decision process allows you to:

•  Fine tune how you promote your offerings

•  Reach out to people who drive decisions

•  Leverage touchpoints

Word of Mouth

AdverDsing

PromoDons

Digital MarkeDng

Point of Purchase


Decision Pathway Key Factors at Each Stage

WHERE SHOULD I GO? •  Variety •  Prices, Specials •  Recent

experience

HOW DO I CHOOSE? •  Use Store

Coupon •  In store

display •  Loyalty

NEED TO SHOP •  To stock up on

different products

•  Routine shop •  For a special

occasion (i.e. party)

WHAT SHOULD I CONSIDER FOR THIS TRIP? •  Visit Websites for

promos •  Check Ads •  Determine what

others want

HOW SATISIFIED? •  Future

purchase intent

•  Consider for other items

•  Make it my ‘favorite’

25



Decision Pathways: Dissecting the Decision Process

Decisions made and in what order •  Do I want to cook or have someone else cook?

•  Do I want to eat at a restaurant or carry out?

•  What type of food am I in the mood for?

•  How much do I want to spend?

•  When do I want to eat?

•  How much =me do I want to spend ea=ng? •  How long will it take to get the food?

•  How much food do I need to get?

•  What food preferences of others will I need to consider?

•  Do I want something healthy?

•  From which restaurant do I want to purchase the food?

•  Any other decision made…

Drill-‐Down QuesDons •  Loca=on when thinking about decision (home, work, car, etc.)

Ø  Where coming from and going to

•  Who involved in decision

•  Factors considered in decision

•  Most influen=al factor Restaurants Considered

•  Who first men=oned each restaurant considered

•  Touch points in past 2 weeks (e.g., ate there, saw a sign, drove by, other method)

•  Whether coupon or promo=onal offer looked for and/or found

•  Whether address/phone number looked up; if so, where/how

EXAMPLE

�  Following is an example of how we ask respondents to dissect the decision process in the survey…


Analysis: Overview

Driver Analyses •  Examine dimensions and touch points

that mo=vate consumers toward choosing a Brand

Pathways IdenDficaDon Reveal the major underlying paLerns in decision-‐making

•  What is involved in decision; the viable pathways that exist and how different scenarios might mean different things to your business and brand strategy

•  We used Latent Class Analysis to reveal the underlying paLerns in decision-‐making, these analyses group respondents according to the way they make decisions, much the way segmenta=on creates groups based on autudes or behaviors

Developing Strategies and TacDcs •  Once we iden=fied the best Targets and uncovered the pathways leading

to their decision, we can develop strategies, communica=ons, marke=ng ini=a=ves and tac=cs to ac=vate the most relevant Targets for the soB drink brand at key touch points of their engagement

Toy Purchase �  Case Study


Business Objectives

�  A major toy brand was seeking ways to better engage with moms as they purchase toys for their young children.

•  By dissecting the decision process and identifying the various purchaser paths that exist they hoped to create a more effective retail strategy.

�  Insights from this research are being used in their business planning to: •  Guide in-store promotions

•  Maximize impact of packaging and shelf displays

•  Motivate consumers prior to a shopping trip

•  Better capture impulse purchases

•  Steal purchases away from competitors

•  Position products more effectively to attract different types of purchase scenarios


Overview of 5 Purchase Pathways

1: Planned Expansion

4: Deciders at Shelf

5: Impulse Purchase

3: Compound Replenishment

2: PlaysetPurchase

Planned purchases where consumer is commiLed to buying X items – likely to expand collec=on. Higher spend.

A planned trip where purchasers are open to all types of products from dough to playsets and seeking whichever brand offers something they like. Highest spend.

Planned purchases where playsets are the focus. Driven by adver=sing, child requests, and child theme preferences.

Replacing, replenishing, and/or adding colors drive purchases which are mainly planned. In-‐store cues cri=cal to capturing unplanned segment of these purchases. Lowest spend.

Primarily unplanned purchases where dough or accessories are in considera=on. In-‐store cues important. Lower spend.

16%

10%

26%

27%

21%

41%

23%

15%

10% 11%


Other DisDnguishing Factors Considered Wanted to try some new accessories for my moldable dough, clay, or other compound (+3)

Average # of men-ons including the first men-on and all other men-ons 3.3 (-‐0.4)

Top 5 Factors Considered During the Purchase Occasion

Wanted to buy something to help with my child's development (+9)

Wanted to buy moldable dough or clay, or some sort of toy that is designed to be used with these or other compounds (+9)

The child I bought for loves moldable dough, clay, or other compound (-‐5)

Wanted something within a specific price range (-‐10)

Wanted something that a child could play on his/her own (-‐3)

Incidence of Pathway

Pathway 1: Planned Expansion

16%

Whether Purchase was Planned or Unplanned

Planned (+21)

Unplanned (-‐21)

33%

27%

21%

17%

15%

Brands Purchased

BRAND (+19)

Non-‐BRAND(Net) (-‐40)

100%

1%

Products Purchased

Moldable dough (+15)

Basic Accessories (+29)

83%

57%

41%

88%

12%

9%

Purchase Occasion

For a December holiday present (+7) 39%

Average Actual Spend on Category Purchase Size of Value

US $13.00 (+3.00) 20%

France € 18.90 (+.40) 42%

+/-‐ = point difference vs. those not in pathway

Own 1+ Playsets

US (-‐9)

France (-‐12)

45%

53%

% Conversion= 100%

Ø  Planned purchases where consumer is commiLed to buying X products; mainly dough or accessories (i.e. “essen=als”). Spend is on the higher side, indica=ng that price is less of a factor. X loyalty is a defining criteria.


Other DisDnguishing Factors Considered The item was based on a character that the child I bought for likes (+8)

I played with moldable dough, clay, or other compound when I was a child and wanted to buy it (+7)

It was recommended to me by a friend or family member (+7)

Average # of men-ons including the first men-on and all other men-ons 4.2 (+0.8)

Top 5 Factors Considered During the Purchase Occasion Wanted to buy something to help with my child's development (0)

The child I bought for loves moldable dough, clay, or other compound (-‐3)

Wanted to get moldable dough, clay, or other compound products that were specific to the =me of year/a par=cular holiday

(+15)

It caught your eye on a shelf display (+5)

Wanted to buy moldable dough or clay, or some sort of toy that is designed to be used with these or other compounds (-‐2)

Pathway 4: Deciders at Shelf



Planned (+14)

Unplanned (-‐14)

27%

22%

22%

20%

19%

Brands Purchased

BRAND (-‐12)

Non-‐BRAND (Net) (+42)

Compe=tor A (+17)

Compe=tor B (+14)

Compe=tor C (+5)

77% 64%

18% 16%

12%

Products Purchased

Moldable dough (+4)

Basic Accessories (+18)

Playsets with themes such as food or animals (+2)

Playsets with themes such as TV and movie characters (+12)

75%

51%

31%

17%

23%

85%

15%

17%

13%

12%

Purchase Occasion

For a December holiday present (-‐13)

As a reward or a treat (+3)

Because your exis=ng supply was depleted or dried out (0)

For a birthday present (+4)

23%

20%

17%

15%


Average Actual Spend on Category Purchase Size of Value US $18.90 (+9.50) 17% France € 23.30 (+6.00) 29%

% Conversion= 85%

Ø  Compe==ve brands are more likely to be considered in this pathway. As with the prior path, it is also a planned trip. However, purchasers in this mindset are open to all types of products from dough to playsets. This path also results in the highest spend.

10%


Other DisDnguishing Factors Considered Saw/heard an adver=sement on TV that interested me (+14)

Somebody requested it (+13)

The item was based on a character that the child I bought for likes (+7)


Top 5 Factors Considered During the Purchase Occasion The child I bought for loves moldable dough, clay, or other compound (+14)

I liked/knew my child would like the fun theme of the item (+21)

Wanted to buy something to help with my child's development (0)

Wanted something within a specific price range (+2)

Wanted to buy moldable dough or clay, or some sort of toy that is designed to be used with these or other compounds

(+4)


26%


Planned (+5)

Unplanned (-‐5)

36%

36%

27%

26%

24% Brands Purchased

BRAND (-‐7)


Compe=tor A (+15)

81%

42%

20%

Products Purchased Playsets with themes such as food or animals (+62)

Playsets with themes such as TV and movie characters (+5)

79%

11%

15%

77%

23%

21%

21%

16%

Purchase Occasion

For a December holiday present (+29)

For a birthday present (+5)

57%

16%


Own 1+ Playsets

US (+29)

France (+5)

73%

64%


US $15.10 (+6.30) 37%

France € 24.80 (+7.20) 19%

% Conversion= 84%

Pathway 2: Playset Purchase

Ø  Playsets are the singular focus for these purchases. A child’s interest in the category and a par=cular theme/character drives this decision. Requests from a child and adver=sing are influen=al. These are planned, and spend is typically on the higher end.


Size of X Moldable Compound Purchased Base: Purchased X Moldable Compound

4-‐pack(s) of cans (+7)

Pack of 10 or more cans sold together (-‐14)

Single can(s) (+8)

Average Actual Spend on Category Purchase Size of Value US $4.70 (-‐7.90) 12% France € 8.40 (-‐11.40) 5%

Purchase Occasion Because your exis=ng supply was depleted or dried out (+14)

No par=cular occasion (+7)

Other DisDnguishing Factors Considered

It caught your eye on a shelf display (0)

Wanted to add new colors or a wider variety of colors of moldable dough, clay, or other compound to what we already had

(+6)

Average # of men-ons including the first men-on and all other men-ons 2.9 (-‐0.8)

Top 5 Factors Considered During the Purchase Occasion The child I bought for loves moldable dough, clay, or other compound (+1)


Wanted to replace or replenish exis=ng moldable dough, clay, or other compound that was old, used or dried out (+10)

It was on sale (+1)

I liked/knew my child would like the fun theme of the item (-‐3)

Pathway 3: Compound Replenishment


27%


Planned (-‐10)

Unplanned (+10)

26%

26%

21%

20%

17%

Brands Purchased

BRAND (-‐7)

Non-‐BRAND (Net) (-‐3)

81%

27%

Products Purchased

Moldable dough (+27) 94%

10%

65%

35%

16%

15%

28%

12%


52%

31%

14% Shopped with Others

Shopped with someone else (+11)

Shopped with children (among those who shopped with someone else) (+37)

38%

82%

% Conversion= 88%

Planned 10% vs. Unplanned 28%






Ø  Replacing, replenishing, and/or adding colors are cri=cal decision factors in this pathway. Purchases are mostly planned, but a significant share are also unplanned. Price is an issue, as spend on these occasions is low. Shelf placement, eye-‐catching displays/packaging, and promo=onal pricing are important for capturing the un-‐planned purchases in this pathway.



US $7.30 (-‐4.00) 14%

France € 9.60 (-‐10.20) 6%

Purchase Occasion

As a reward or a treat (+11)

Other DisDnguishing Factors Considered Wanted something that could be played by mul=ple children at a =me (+10)

It caught your eye on a shelf display (+7)

There was a special promo=on (+6)


Top 5 Factors Considered During the Purchase Occasion


Wanted to buy something to help with my child's development (+13)

It was on sale (+14)

Wanted something that a child could play on his/her own (+16)

Wanted to buy moldable dough or clay, or some sort of toy that is designed to be used with these or other compounds

(+3)

Pathway 5: Impulse Purchase


21%


Planned (-‐41)

Unplanned (+41)

Brands Purchased

BRAND (-‐1)


86%

30%

Products Purchased

Moldable dough (+3)

Basic Accessories (-‐1)

74%

35%

11%

42%

38%

31%

30%

23%

26%


23%

22%

20%

39%

61%

Shopped with Others

Shopped with someone else (+9)

Shopped with children (among those who shopped with someone else) (+12)

37%

65%

% Conversion= 91%

Ø  Unplanned purchases where dough or accessories are in considera=on. Spend is on the low end, but higher than a replenishment purchase. Being on sale, in a specific price range, a special promo=on, or eye-‐catching display are all influen=al decision factors. Purchase is oBen made as a reward or treat.


1: Planned Expansion

Planned purchases where consumer is commiLed to buying X items – likely to expand collec=on. Higher spend.

4: Deciders at Shelf

A planned trip where purchasers are open to all types of products from dough to playsets and seeking whichever brand offers something they like. Highest spend.

2: Playset Purchase

Planned purchases where playsets are the focus. Driven by adver=sing, child requests, and child theme preferences.

3: Compound Replenishment

Replacing, replenishing, and/or adding colors drive purchases which are mainly planned. In-‐store cues cri=cal to capturing unplanned segment of these purchases. Lowest spend.

5: Impulse Purchase

Primarily unplanned purchases where dough or accessories are in considera=on. In-‐store cues important. Lower spend.

20%

17%

37%

12%

14%

42%

29%

19%

5% 6%

Size of Value = Total Pathway Spend (Mean Spend * Share of 100 Occasions)

Total Spend Across all Pathways

Size of Value by Pathway


1: Planned Expansion 2: Playset Purchase 3: Compound Replenishment

4: Deciders at Shelf 5: Impulse Purchase

Wal-‐Mart (+4) (-‐2) (0) (+16) (-‐7)

Toys ‘R’ Us (+12) (+13) (+8)

Target (+6) (-‐1) (+2) (-‐6) (-‐3)

K-‐Mart (+10) (+9)

Somewhere else (-‐6) (+6) (-‐6) (+10)

Retailers by Pathway

Only retailers men-oned by 10% or more are shown. () indicate difference between those within given segment and those outside of segment. PP10b. And where did you purchase this moldable dough or clay, or toys that are designed to be used with these or other compounds?

37%

25%

23%

34%

19%

17%

21%

48%

22%

12%

11%

28%

15%

17%

24%

32%

25%

17%

12%


1: Planned Expansion 2: Playset Purchase 3: Compound Replenishment

4: Deciders at Shelf 5: Impulse Purchase

Toys ‘R’ Us (+2) (+2) (-‐8) (+4) (-‐7)

Carrefour (+1) (0) (+1) (-‐2) (0)

Leclerc (-‐5) (-‐3) (+13) (+14)

La Grande Recre (+4) (+3)

Auchan (+5) (+5)

King Jouet (+3)

Joue Club (+8) (+5)

Somewhere else (+3)

Retailers by Pathway

Only retailers men-oned by 10% or more are shown. () indicate difference between those within given segment and those outside of segment. PP10b. And where did you purchase this moldable dough or clay, or toys that are designed to be used with these or other compounds?

20%

14%

10%

11%

10%

20%

14%

10%

17%

11%

15%

25%

10%

22%

12%

11%

13%

14%

12%

14%

25%

14%


Prioritizing the Impact of the Touchpoints

Chosen

Newspaper adver=sement

Magazine review

On-‐line review

Saw TV adver=sement

Retailer website

Personal recommenda=on

Visited store

39


Previous experience with brand


Case Study: Recommended Actions

Maximize the impact of their packaging at shelf and

their shelf displays

Guide in-‐store promo=ons S=mulate early in-‐season purchasing with coupons

Tac=cs (in and out of store) to steal purchases away

from compe=tors

�  Insights from this research are being used in their business planning to:

Mo=vate consumers prior to their shopping trip

Inform posi=oning and product strategies for different purchase

occasions