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PANEL DISCUSSION AN OUTLOOK FOR GAS SUPPLY IN THE BLACK SEA REGION BY 2020
Okan YARDIMCIEnergy Expert, Energy Market Regulatory Authority, Turkey
IV International Black Sea Economic Forum24-25 October 2013, Yalta, Crimea
Okan YARDIMCI
Panel Discussion: An Outlook for Gas Supply in the Black Sea Region by 2020
IV International Black Sea Economic Forum, 24-25 October 2013, Yalta, Crimea
Education
2004 (B.Sc) Petroleum and Natural Gas Eng. (METU)
2008 (MBA) Business Management (Atılım U.)
2008 (Exec. P.) Public Utilities (Michigan State U.)
Cont. (LL.M. Can.) Law (PennState U.)
Cont. (Ph.D Can.) Finance (Hacettepe U.)
Work Experience
2004-2006 Reservoir Engineer, Perenco (International Oil Company)
2006-Cont. Energy Expert, Energy Market Regulatory Authority, Turkey
Other
ERRA Lecturer (Advanced Training Course: Price Regulation & Tariffs)
Member of Energy Experts Society, Member of Youth Leader Society
Interests; Global energy markets, Turkey energy markets, regulation, tariffs, oil and natural gas prices, LNG, econometrics, finance, arbitration, international law, conflict of contract law, leadership, diplomacy, politics
Okan YARDIMCI
Okan YARDIMCI
Panel Discussion: An Outlook for Gas Supply in the Black Sea Region by 2020
IV International Black Sea Economic Forum, 24-25 October 2013, Yalta, Crimea
Turkey
Import
Domestic Production
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
bil
lio
n c
ub
ic m
eter
s
Natural Gas Consumption of Turkey
~ 450 billion cubic meters
Annual consumption forecast for 2013; 47.6 BCMTURKEY NATURAL GAS SUPPLY - 2011 (44,5 BCM)
Russia; 57%Iran; 18%
Azerbaijan; 9%
Algeria LNG; 9%
Nigeria LNG; 3%
Spot LNG; 2% Domestic Production; 2%
Market liberalisation
Okan YARDIMCI
Panel Discussion: An Outlook for Gas Supply in the Black Sea Region by 2020
IV International Black Sea Economic Forum, 24-25 October 2013, Yalta, Crimea
Turkey
Place of the Turkey's Natural Gas Consumption in the World
0,2% 0,3% 0,6% 1,2%0,004% 1,0%
47
43
32
2724
0
10
20
30
40
50
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Coun
try ra
nkin
g by
cons
.
0,0%
0,3%
0,6%
0,9%
1,2%
1,5%
Prop
ortio
n of
the T
urke
y con
s.
Okan YARDIMCI
Panel Discussion: An Outlook for Gas Supply in the Black Sea Region by 2020
IV International Black Sea Economic Forum, 24-25 October 2013, Yalta, Crimea
State owned comp. BOTAŞ was the monopoly on;
Import & Wholesale, Transmission, Distribution, Storage, Sale, Determination of
wholesale prices, retail prices, connection fees
Imported Gas
Residential
Domestic Gas
Power
Industry
Distribution
BOTAŞ
LNG Facility
Natural gas market structure before 2002
Okan YARDIMCI
Panel Discussion: An Outlook for Gas Supply in the Black Sea Region by 2020
IV International Black Sea Economic Forum, 24-25 October 2013, Yalta, Crimea
Domestic Production
Import (LNG & Pipeline)
Wholesale(LNG, CNG, Pipeline)
Transmission(LNG & Pipeline)
Eligible Cons.
Non-Eligible Cons.
Export
SUPPLY WHOLESALE NETWORK CONSUMPTION
Distribution
LNG Facilities & Underground Storage
Natural gas market structure after 2002
Okan YARDIMCI
Panel Discussion: An Outlook for Gas Supply in the Black Sea Region by 2020
IV International Black Sea Economic Forum, 24-25 October 2013, Yalta, Crimea
IMPORT WHOLESALE TRANSMISSION DISTRIBUTION
COMPRESSED NATURAL GAS STORAGE EXPORT
15 + 30 spot LNG 42 1 pipeline + 24 LNG 64
75 4 4
Total number of licences; 259
Natural gas market activities
Okan YARDIMCI
Panel Discussion: An Outlook for Gas Supply in the Black Sea Region by 2020
IV International Black Sea Economic Forum, 24-25 October 2013, Yalta, Crimea
BOTAŞ is required to transfer its import contracts until its market share decreases to 20%The first contract release tender was completed by BOTAŞ on 30th of November 2006.
Import
Company Transferred amounts (million cm3)
1 Shell Enerji A.Ş. 250
2 Bosphorus Gaz A.Ş. 750
3 Enerco Enerji San. ve Tic. 2500
4 Avrasya Gaz A.Ş. 500
Company Transferred amounts (million cm3)
1 Bosphorus Gaz A.Ş. 1750
2 Akfel 2250
3 Kibar 1000
4 Batı Hattı 1000
The second contract release tender was completed by BOTAŞ on 1st of January 2013.
Company Transferred amounts (million cm3)
1 SOCAR 1200
Azerbaijan contract release to SOCAR completed by BOTAŞ on 1st of January 2013.
Okan YARDIMCI
Panel Discussion: An Outlook for Gas Supply in the Black Sea Region by 2020
IV International Black Sea Economic Forum, 24-25 October 2013, Yalta, Crimea
Import contracts
CONTRACTSQUANTITY
(BCM/YEAR)
RUSSIAN FED. West-1 6 (Private Companies)
RUSSIAN FED. West-2 8 (4 BCM BOTAŞ, 4 BCM Private Companies)
RUSSIAN FED. Blue Stream 16 (BOTAŞ)
IRAN 10 (BOTAŞ)
AZERBAIJAN 6.6 (5.2 BCM BOTAŞ, 1.2 BCM SOCAR)
TURKMENISTAN 16 (not in operation)
ALGERIA (LNG) 4 (BOTAŞ)
NIGERIA LNG) 1.2 (BOTAŞ)
AZERBAIJAN 16 BCM/ SHAH DENIZ 2 PROJECT(Trans Anatolia Pipeline-TANAP agreement was signed in 2012)
Okan YARDIMCI
Panel Discussion: An Outlook for Gas Supply in the Black Sea Region by 2020
IV International Black Sea Economic Forum, 24-25 October 2013, Yalta, Crimea
Iran
10 BCM
Azerbaijan
6,6 BCM (5,4 BCM BOTAŞ,
1,2 BCM SOCAR)
+ 16 BCM (SHAH DENIZ 2)
Turkmenistan
(Agreement)
16 BCM
Russian Fed.(West)
8 BCM (4 BCM BOTAŞ, 4 BCM Private Comp.)
Spot
(LNG)
BOTAŞ+Private Comp.
Algeria+Nigeria
(LNG)
4 BCM + 1,2 BCM
Greece
0,75 BCM
Russian Fed.
(Blue Stream)
16 BCMRussian Fed.(West)
6 BCM (Private Comp.)
Planning Natural Gas Underground Storage
LNG Gasification Terminals
Underground Storage
Planning LNG Gasification Terminals
Turkey natural gas system
Okan YARDIMCI
Panel Discussion: An Outlook for Gas Supply in the Black Sea Region by 2020
IV International Black Sea Economic Forum, 24-25 October 2013, Yalta, Crimea
EGEGAZ Aliağa LNG Terrminal
Yearly Send-Out Capacity : 6.0 Billion m3
(Tank Capacity; 2 X 140.000 m3 LNG tanks)
Daily Maximum Sent Out : 16.4 million m3/day
BOTAŞ Marmara Ereğlisi LNG Terminal
Yearly Send-Out Capacity : 8.2 Billion m3
(Tank Capacity; 3 X 85.000 m3 LNG tanks)
Daily Maximum Sent Out : 18.7 million m3/day
TPAO Silivri Underground Natural Gas Storage Facilities
Type : Depleted gas fields (Değirmenköy and Kuzey Marmara Fields)
Total Storage Capacity : 2.7 Billion m3
Maximum Sent Out : 14.5 million m3/day
Planning Natural Gas Underground Storage
LNG Gasification Terminals
Underground Storage
Planning LNG Gasification Terminals
LNG facilities & storage
Okan YARDIMCI
Panel Discussion: An Outlook for Gas Supply in the Black Sea Region by 2020
IV International Black Sea Economic Forum, 24-25 October 2013, Yalta, Crimea
BOTAŞ
EGEGAZ
LNG facilities
Okan YARDIMCI
Panel Discussion: An Outlook for Gas Supply in the Black Sea Region by 2020
IV International Black Sea Economic Forum, 24-25 October 2013, Yalta, Crimea
LNG TRADE
Source : International Gas Union, World LNG Report
The role of Turkey in the global LNG trade
Okan YARDIMCI
Panel Discussion: An Outlook for Gas Supply in the Black Sea Region by 2020
IV International Black Sea Economic Forum, 24-25 October 2013, Yalta, Crimea
Missing sea…
Source : DNV
Okan YARDIMCI
Panel Discussion: An Outlook for Gas Supply in the Black Sea Region by 2020
IV International Black Sea Economic Forum, 24-25 October 2013, Yalta, Crimea
Crazy project
Source : DNV
Channel Istanbul
Thank You!
Okan YardımcıEnergy Expert, Turkey+90 532 798 85 [email protected] [email protected]
Akçakoca, Black Sea, Turkey
Okan YARDIMCI
Panel Discussion: An Outlook for Gas Supply in the Black Sea Region by 2020
IV International Black Sea Economic Forum, 24-25 October 2013, Yalta, Crimea
WORLD’S 2ND LARGEST NATURAL GAS MARKET
WORLD’S LARGEST OIL AND GAS RESOURCESNATURAL TRANSIT
ROUTE
Turkey as a natural transit country…
Okan YARDIMCI
Panel Discussion: An Outlook for Gas Supply in the Black Sea Region by 2020
IV International Black Sea Economic Forum, 24-25 October 2013, Yalta, Crimea
Black Sea gas potential…
in the Turkish part of the Black Sea;
2006 - Studies at Sinop Region (TPAO, Exxon-Mobil, Petrobras)
2007 - Gas Exploration at Akçakoca Region (TPAO, OMV, Foinavon, Tiway) – yearly production is 0,7 billion m3
2008 - Studies at Kastamonu & Samsun Region (TPAO, Exxon-Mobil)
2009 - Studies at Zonguldak Region (TPAO, Chevron)
2011 - Studies at Istranca Region (TPAO)
2013 – TPAO & Shell Agreement, Studies will start in 2014
Okan YARDIMCI
Panel Discussion: An Outlook for Gas Supply in the Black Sea Region by 2020
IV International Black Sea Economic Forum, 24-25 October 2013, Yalta, Crimea
Black Sea gas potential…
TPAO’s Istranca-1 offshore well tested natural gas. The well, drilled in the Western Black Sea Licence AR/TPO/3920, has a water depth of 85 meters and a total depth of 3650 meters. Istranca-1 well test proved the existence of hydrocarbons in the Turkish Black Sea outside the 12-Mile territorial waters. The well test between 13-18.September.2012 recovered gas from Middle Miocene aged sandstones.
Okan YARDIMCI
Panel Discussion: An Outlook for Gas Supply in the Black Sea Region by 2020
IV International Black Sea Economic Forum, 24-25 October 2013, Yalta, Crimea
Black Sea gas potential…
OMV, Total, Repsol studies in the Bulgaria part of the Black Sea.
Shell, Exxon Mobil, Petrom studies in the Ukraine part of the Black Sea.
Vanco studies at Prekarçinki, Ukraine.
Rosneft, Exxon Mobil studies at Tuapse, Russia.
Romania’s Gas Exploration (Neptun Block, 70.7 meters of net gas pay, preliminary estimates 42-84 billion m3 – 3 to 6 times Romania’s gas consumption) (OMV Petrom, Exxon-Mobil) (Deepwater Champion)
Chevron’s Studies about shale gas on Romania's Black Sea coast
Studies at Crimean peninsula
Okan YARDIMCI
Panel Discussion: An Outlook for Gas Supply in the Black Sea Region by 2020
IV International Black Sea Economic Forum, 24-25 October 2013, Yalta, Crimea
Natural gas price components
Components of Household Gas Price (7,950 Euro/GJ)
Value Added Tax; 15,3%
Private Consumption
Tax; 3,6%
Storage Fee; 0,8%
Average Distribution Fee;
2,9%
Average Transmission
Fee; 3,2%
74,3%; Gas Price + Wholesale
Profit
fiscal legislationfiscal legislation
oil
pri
ce
Around 1/5 of the total annual consumption is using the storage facility.0,8% is the average ratio.
Okan YARDIMCI
Panel Discussion: An Outlook for Gas Supply in the Black Sea Region by 2020
IV International Black Sea Economic Forum, 24-25 October 2013, Yalta, Crimea
Small-Scale LNG