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Big Questions Facing Western Canadian Oil and Gas
Jackie Forrest, Senior Director, IHS CERA
10 December 2013Calgary, Alberta
© 2013 IHS
Big Questions Facing Western Canadian Oil and Gas
2
• How big is North America’s oil revival, and will it all fit?
• Western Canadian crude oil pipelines: where to and when?
• Is rail a short-term bridge or long-term solution?
• What’s the potential for North America’s shale gas expansion?
• How big will Canadian LNG be?
• Oil Sands Dialogue, a resource for fact-based information
3
1) How big is North America’s oil revival, and will it all fit?
© 2013 IHS
US domestic production
Canadian imports
Offshore imports
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Thousand barrels per day
US crude oil supply and demandEven with Canadian imports growing, offshore imports are still required
4
Source: IHS CERA.
Total crude runs
5
2) Western Canadian crude oil pipelines: where to and when?
© 2013 IHS
New pipeline projects planned in three directions – east, west, and south
6
Note: Not to scale. Not exact routings.
© 2013 IHS
Western Canadian Supply for Pipeline Export versus Pipeline Capacity
7
Rangeland/Milk River/Express Trans Mountain - Existing
Keystone
Enbridge Mainline Capacity
Keystone XL
Trans Mountain Expansion
Energy East
Northern Gateway
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
Thou
sand
bar
rels
per
day
Crude-by-rail required
Source:IHS
IHS CERAoutlook forWestern CanadianSupply
Notes: Effective pipeline capacity is assumed to be 100% of announced project capacity. New pipelines ramp up to effective capacity in first full year of operation (exception is Energy East, assumed to ramp-up to full capacity in 2018 when Atlantic Canada is accessed). Keystone XL, Enbridge Mainline, and Energy East effective capacity from Western Canada has been adjusted to account for downstream terminals that on-load crude oil. Source IHS CERA
8
3) Is rail a short-term bridge or long-term solution?
© 2013 IHS
Outlook for Rapid Growth in Western Canada crude-by-rail
9
Source: IHS CERA, Stats Canada.
Jan-11M
ar-11M
ay-11Jul-11Sep-11Nov-11Jan-12M
ar-12M
ay-12Jul-12Sep-12Nov-12Jan-13M
ar-13M
ay-13Jul-13Sep-13Nov-13Q
1 2014Q
3 2014Q
1 2015Q
3 2015Q
1 2016Q
3 2016
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
Rail Crude Movements from Western Canada - His-tory
Rail Crude Movements from Western Canada - Out-look (assumes new pipelines are constructed as planned)
Rail Crude Movements from Western Canada - Out-look (assumes no new pipelines)
Western Canadian Rail On Loading Capacity
barr
els
per d
ay
10
4) What’s the potential for North America’s shale gas expansion?
© 2013 IHS
North American natural gas supply outlook
11
Source: IHS CERA.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2011 2015 2019 2023 2027 2031 2035
Bcfperday
Conventional Coalbed methane Tight sands Associated gas Shale
12
5) How big will Canadian LNG be?
© 2013 IHS
North American LNG potential projects compared with IHS CERA outlook
13
Source: IHS CERA
IHS CERA North American LNG export outlook
2020 2035
Canada 1.4 Bcf/day 3.6 Bcf/day
United States 5.2 Bcf/day 5.5 Bcf/day
14
Oil Sands Dialogue, a resource for fact-based information
© 2013 IHS 15
Oil Sands Dialogue researches critical issuesNow available for download at http://www.ihs.com/oilsandsdialogue
• Critical Questions for the Canadian Oil Sands, October 2013
• Keystone XL Pipeline: No Material Impact on US GHG Emissions, August 2013
• Assessing Marine Transport for Oil Sands on Canada’s West Coast, June 2013
• Extracting Economic Value from the Canadian Oil Sands – Upgrading and Refining in Alberta (or Not)?, March 2013
• Future Markets for Canadian Oil Sands, January 2013
• Oil Sands, Greenhouse Gases, and US Oil Supply, November 2012
• Assessing Environmental Regulations in the Canadian Oil Sands, December 2011
• Major Sources of US Oil Supply: The Challenge of Comparisons, October 2011
Upcoming research: Oil Sands Economic Benefits: With or Without Growth – Q4 2013
© 2013 IHS
Big Questions Facing Western Canadian Oil and Gas
16
• How big is North America’s oil revival, and will it all fit?
• Western Canadian crude oil pipelines: where to and when?
• Is rail a short-term bridge or long-term solution?
• What’s the potential for North America’s shale gas expansion?
• How big will Canadian LNG be?
• Oil Sands Dialogue, a resource for fact-based information
For more information about this presentation orIHS CERA in general, please contact
Jackie Forrest+1 403 770 4403
