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China and the Global Publishing Market

Publishing Workshop, Beijing, September 4, 2007

H. Dirk Koehler, Publisher, The World Bank, Washington, DCI want to thank Kathleen Louise Peddle, intern in the World Bank’s Office of the

Publisher for her support in researching and putting together these slides.

2

Number of Native Speakers (millions)

Mandarin English Spanish Japanese French

1,212

341

78125

322

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Source: http://encarta.msn.com/media_701500404/Languages_Spoken_by_More_Than_10_Million_People.html

3

More than Native Speakers…

1,3001,200

178

1378

600341

600

941

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Population(millions)

Number of NativeSpeakers (millions)

Number of 2nd-language speakers

(millions)

Native and 2nd-language speakers

English-Speaking World

China

The English-Speaking World’s population includes Australia, Canada, Ireland, New Zealand, South Africa, UK, US, Guyana, Jamaica, Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka

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Distribution of Native English Speakers in the Major Publishing Markets

(millions)

Total 314 m

US, 215

United Kingdom, 58

Canada, 18

Australia, 15

New Zealand, 4

South Africa, 4

5

Distribution of the Total Number of Native and Second-Language English Speakers

(millions)

Other, 220

India, 350

US, 251

New Zealand, 4

South Africa, 14

UK, 60

Canada, 25

Australia, 17

David Crystal, 2005

Total 941 m

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From Speakers to Book Markets

Population(millions)

GDP (US$ bn) PPP GNI percapita (US$)

1,305 460

36,342

6,600

2,234

16,811

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

Population, GDP and PPP GNI 2005

Mandarin

English

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From Speakers to Book Markets…

91%98.16%

73%

99.04%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Adult Literacy Secondary School Enrollment

Adult Literacy and Secondary School Enrollment 2005

Mandarin

English

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Distribution of Annual Sales China and the English-Speaking World

Approximate Sales Revenue 2006 US$bn

China, 15.6

English-speaking countries, 35.91

Total US$ 51bn

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Distribution of Annual Sales The English-Speaking World

Approx Sales US$bn 2006

Australia, 1

Canada, 1.9

New Zealand, 0.2

South Africa, 0.3

UK, 3.71

US, 28.8

Total 35.91 US$bn

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The United States of America

28.2 US$ bn sales per annum

15,000 publishing companies

195,000 new titles published per annum

5,238 booksellers

6,000 public libraries

58 million broadband subscribers

211 million Internet users

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SWOT Analysis of the US Market

Threats Weakened competitiveness due to high costs and prices Foreign-owned publishers

Opportunities Enormous size of US/Can. Market Minorities not well served Dynamic market, open to innovations

Weaknesses Inhospitable market for translations into English from other languages (only 3% of the books on sale were translations in 2004) Recent growth in new title output has been driven by ‘soft’ categories i.e. adult fiction, religion and children’s books Decline in science and technology books, burst in computer books ‘bubble’ Inward looking, risk of isolationism Reading culture in decline, new media in upswing (shorter attention span)

Strengths Positive development forecast, estimated 18% growth in next 5 years Trade sector accounts for 31% of total sales New title development strong = 195K in 2004 (52% of the new title output of all the English-language countries) English-language publishers (mostly US but also English world) produced 40% of the world’s book content in 2004 Strong home base enables expansion into other markets (e.g. Europe, China?, multinational publishers) International leader in technology (e-publishing)

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The United Kingdom

3.71 US$ bn sales per annum

2,275 publishing companies

200,000 new titles published per annum

3,100 booksellers

4,600 public libraries

13 million broadband subscribers

38 million Internet users

13

Australia

Approx 1 US$ bn sales per annum

Approx 450 publishing companies

Approx 10,000 new titles published per annum

2,300 booksellers

2000 public libraries

4 million broadband subscribers

15 million Internet users

14

Canada

2 US$ bn sales per annum

493 publishing companies

11,500 new titles published per annum

2,000 booksellers

8 million broadband subscribers

22 million Internet users

15

South Africa

0.3 US$ bn sales per annum

158 publishing companies

3,000 new titles published per annum

580 booksellers

1,200 public libraries

0.3 million broadband subscribers

5.1 million Internet users

16

New Zealand

0.2 US$ bn sales per annum

100 publishing companies

2,266 new titles published per annum

370 booksellers

0.6 million broadband subscribers

3.2 million Internet users