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Amministratore delegato del Copenhagen Institute for Future Studies, think tank con sede in Danimarca e centro di ricerca internazionale tra i più autorevoli. Esperto di strategia, innovazione, marketing e consumer trends, tiene conferenze in tutto il mondo. Ha collaborato con istituzioni governative, organizzazioni internazionali, istituti finanziari e aziende private su progetti strategici di larga scala. È stato amministratore delegato e consulente in numerose start up.
Citation preview
The future of SME and the evolution of business clusters
October 14th 2013
The Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies (CIFS)
Strategy & Innovation
Membership Network
Live Inspiration
CIFS is an independent, not-for-profit think tank. Since 1970, it has been guiding key decision makers all over the world.
We use futures studies to create immediate changes, innovation and development in companies, organizations and society.
We do this by offering a future-driven business network, experienced business development competencies and strong knowledge sharing. Part of our revenues are invested in R & D.
Some of our products:
Projects for clients
Members’ reports
Award winning magazine
Studying the future is human nature
It is a crucial adaptive capacity in human social, cultural, political and economic evolution
It is a fundamental aspect
of who we are and
how we function.
Predictions is rarely enough
”I am not an economist, but I do believe that we are growing”
President George W. Bush July 2008
And the costumers are still more demanding
"Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?”
H.M. Warner, Warner Brothers, 1927.
Do they actually know what the want?
”If I asked people what they wanted, I would have made a faster horse”
Henry Ford
We are trying to lay a hierarchy over a chaotic system
Top level megatrend
Sub-trend
trends
Individual obeservations
What is a megatrend?
Assessing megatrends’ consequences
• Megatrends are synthetic complex aggregation of trends. They are interconnected, which means there are synergistic opportunities among them.
• You can’t hide from a megatrend – they affects society in general. While megatrends are global, their impacts can vary locally.
• They have a life time of at least 10-15 years
• Warning: While they are ”paths” of expected development, do not expect the development to occur linearly
• We have a tendency to over estimate the consequences in the short-run and under estimate them in the long run.
How companies use megatrends:
Peter Bisson, Director McKinsey: - Capture market oppotunities
- Test risks
- Spur innovation
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
- Basis for innovation process
- Basis for scenario planning
- Basis for Early Warning Systems
- First step in quality assessment of business and strategy concepts (investment themes)
Matthias Horx, Futurist:
- Better decision making in strategic management
- Quicker and more precise innovation generation
USA, Magazine from the 1950’s: ”America 2000 - this is your future!”
3D Color TV Wall-Panel
Slide-back Roof Personal Helicopter & Roof Landing Area
MovingStairway House-control Panel
Glass Walls Dust-free Floors
Menu Selector & Microwave Stove
Giant-size Fruit
Ultrasonic Laundry
Electrical Heat Unit
Phono-vision Receiver
An example from CIFS
”Before 2005 we must expect China and maybe India to be future competitors and potential markets if we are able to adapt to their political and cultural constraints”.
Source, IFF: Towards 2005, 1980
Megatrends Network society
Sustainability
Knowledge society
Immaterialization
Democratization
Acceleration and complexity
Technologic development
Economic growth
Demographic development
Focus on health
Polarization
Globalization
Commercialization
Individualization
15 How to benefit from a megatrend Pictet Asset Management
Sustainability
Globalization
Technology Development
Economic Growth
Threats and opportunities are in the cross
section of trends Original position
Current position
e.g. Clean Energy
How to use megatrends
Transactional environment
Contextual environment
Megatrends
• Social • Technology • Economic • Environmental • Political
• Competitors (new and existing)
• Suppliers and value chain
• Labor market
Opportunities Companies’ innovation, strategy and
risk management
Threats
Different approaches to predicting the future
Scenarios
Predictive Explorative Normative
Forecasts What if? External Strategic Sustaining Trans-
formative
Source: Börjeson, Línda, et. al. 2005. Towards a user's guide to scenarios - a report on scenario types and scenario techniques. Stockholm, KTH.
• Desired future • Value based
• Hidden risks • Qualitative • Inspiring • Used daily • Used in everyday decision making
• Possible futures • Based on certain relationships • Hidden risks • Quantitative • Done when we need to decide quickly • Used everyday • Strong in short-term and in areas with low degrees of uncertainty
• Possible and plausible • Uncertainty based • Illustrate risks • Quantitative or Qualitative • Need to know what must be decided • Used occasionally • Strong in the medium to long-term or when there are high degrees of uncertainty
Scenarios Forecasts Visions
Examples of Scenarios
Megatrends Network society
Sustainability
Knowledge society
Immaterialization
Democratization
Acceleration and complexity
Technologic development
Economic growth
Demographic development
Focus on health
Polarization
Globalization
Commercialization
Individualization
Megatrends Network society
Sustainability
Knowledge society
Immaterialization
Democratization
Acceleration and complexity
Technologic development
Economic growth
Demographic development
Focus on health
Polarization
Globalization
Commercialization
Individualization
Accelerating pace of change
Accelerating pace of change • Exponential rate of ICT development
– ”Technological progress—in particular, improvements in computer hardware, software, and networks—has been so rapid and so surprising that many present-day organizations, institutions, policies, and mindsets are not keeping up.”
• Hyper-competition is accelerating creative destruction
• CEO’s cannot keep up: 40% of CEO’s last less than 2 years and median tenures lasted 5.5 years (in Australia it is down to 3.9 years)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1973-1983 1983-1993 1993-2003 2003-2013
The rate of replacement of Fortune1000
Source: Nathan Furr, Big Business ... The End is Near: Why 70% of the Fortune 1000 Will Be Replaced in a Few Years. Forbes. 21 April 2011 http://www.tlnt.com/2010/07/28/so-long-and-farewell-lon-youre-simply-part-of-the-ceo-trend/
Customers, innovation, competitors – the biggest threat to organizations
Likelihood
Sig
nif
ica
nc
e
Terrorism
Hazards
Compliance
Reputation
Business Interruption
Regulation
Interest rates
Credit Risk
Foreign Exchange
Source: Torben Juul Andersen, SRM (2006)
Political Risk
Economic Conditions
Technology Shifts
Innovation Competitor Shifts
Customer Preference
Industries converge
2000 2012
1. Nokia 1. Samsung
2. Motorola 2. Nokia
3. Ericsson 3. Apple
4. Siemens 4. ZTE
5. Panasonic 5. LG Electronics
Five largest mobile handset manufacturers worldwide based on quarterly sales figures
(total units sold)
Source: Gartner dataquest, 2010, 2012
New society creates need for new partnerships
Competition convergence
Energy Infrastructure
Automobile & homeowners
assistance
ICT Players
What is the answer • Exponential rate of ICT development
– ”Technological progress—in particular, improvements in computer hardware, software, and networks—has been so rapid and so surprising that many present-day organizations, institutions, policies, and mindsets are not keeping up.”
• Hyper-competition is accelerating creative destruction
• CEO’s cannot keep up: 40% of CEO’s last less than 2 years and median tenures lasted 5.5 years (in Australia it is down to 3.9 years)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1973-1983 1983-1993 1993-2003 2003-2013
The rate of replacement of Fortune1000
Source: Nathan Furr, Big Business ... The End is Near: Why 70% of the Fortune 1000 Will Be Replaced in a Few Years. Forbes. 21 April 2011 http://www.tlnt.com/2010/07/28/so-long-and-farewell-lon-youre-simply-part-of-the-ceo-trend/
The answer is increased flexibility: Due to the pace of change, employees are transitioning from a fixed to variable cost
• Among OECD countries, temporary job growth has been 1.5 – 2 times faster than total employment since 1990s
• In France, the number of temporary jobs grew by 66 percent while regular job growth increased by 7 (2000-2010).
Source: McKinsey (2012)
From transaction to relation and service
Ownership Lease
Service
Assets Cash flow
Reflections conclusions
Consequences
? Is you technology increasing the
flexibility of your customers
Are you selling a product or a service?
Megatrends Network society
Sustainability
Knowledge society
Immaterialization
Democratization
Acceleration and complexity
Technologic development
Economic growth
Demographic development
Focus on health
Polarization
Globalization
Commercialization
Individualization
A new society requires new ways of working
20th century
• “Limited” social interaction
• Value in transactions
• Business stability
• Well-defined industries and hierarchies
• One-way markets
• Limited information
• Resource abundance
21st century
• Pervasive social interaction
• Value in relationships
• Business flux
• Industry transformation
• Two-way markets
• Information abundance
• Resource constraints
Institutions Forces • Ambient communication • Global information flows • Social computing • Market discontinuity
Communities
CONTROL Source: Dion Hinchchiffe, 2010
How does this affects private consumption?
MR1 2013
Access/service is more important than owning
RobotCab – googlecar
Sharing economy
Source: The Economist (2013)
FREEDOM FROM OWNING
Megatrends Network society
Sustainability
Knowledge society
Immaterialization
Democratization
Acceleration and complexity
Technologic development
Economic growth
Demographic development
Focus on health
Polarization
Globalization
Commercialization
Individualization
Economic Growth
Growth is a megatrend but WE are struggeling
-0,5
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
Q4-2010 Q1-2011 Q2-2011 Q3-2011 Q4-2011 Q1-2012 Q2-2012 Q3-2012
GDP Growth Rate, as a % of previous Quarter
Germany United States European Union (27 countries)
OECD - Total Brazil China
India
Source: OECD StatExtracts, data extracted dec 3, 2012
Middle class now and in 2030 Size of the middle class in 2009 and prediction for 2030
Sources: Mckinsey, World Economic Forum
Just the beginning
The transatlantic economy VS the rest of the world (% of total GDP based on purchasing-power-parity)
Personal consumption in developing Europe VS China (billions of USD)
Europe’s periphery: Developing Europe, Middle East, North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa
Output of Europe’s periphery VS China/India (trillions of USD)
Regional thinking
Kilde: Tøm vækstlommerne i Europa, af Susanne Tholstrup, Børsen, 20.09.12
Megatrends Network society
Sustainability
Knowledge society
Immaterialization
Democratization
Acceleration and complexity
Technologic development
Economic growth
Demographic development
Focus on health
Polarization
Globalization
Commercialization
Individualization
Middle class now and in 2030 Size of the middle class in 2009 and prediction for 2030
Sources: Mckinsey, World Economic Forum
Institutioner
Source: Fatás&Mihov HBR 2009. Based on: Governance Matters VII: Aggregate and Individual Governance Indicators 1996-2007. Daniel Kaufmann Aart Kraay Massimo Mastruzzi The World Bank Development Research GroupJune 2008
A changing environment for offshoring
Source: McKinsey (2008)
Massive Impact
Megatrends Network society
Sustainability
Knowledge society
Immaterialization
Democratization
Acceleration and complexity
Technologic development
Economic growth
Demographic development
Focus on health
Polarization
Globalization
Commercialization
Individualization
More developed regions
Low Variant
Population (in 1000)
40,00030,00020,00010,000010,00020,00030,00040,000
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90-94
95-99
100+ Male FemaleMænd Kvinder
Population (i tusental)
1950
Median age
28,6
OECD
More developed regions
Low Variant
Population (in 1000)
40,00030,00020,00010,000010,00020,00030,00040,000
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90-94
95-99
100+ Male FemaleMænd Kvinder
1960
Median age
29,6
Population (i tusental)
OECD
More developed regions
Low Variant
Population (in 1000)
40,00030,00020,00010,000010,00020,00030,00040,000
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90-94
95-99
100+ Male FemaleMænd Kvinder
1970
Median age
30,6
Population (i tusental)
OECD
More developed regions
Low Variant
Population (in 1000)
40,00030,00020,00010,000010,00020,00030,00040,000
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90-94
95-99
100+ Male FemaleMænd Kvinder
1980
Median age
31,9
Population (i tusental)
OECD
More developed regions
Low Variant
Population (in 1000)
40,00030,00020,00010,000010,00020,00030,00040,000
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90-94
95-99
100+ Male FemaleMænd Kvinder
1990
Median age
34,4
Population (i tusental)
OECD
More developed regions
Low Variant
Population (in 1000)
40,00030,00020,00010,000010,00020,00030,00040,000
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90-94
95-99
100+ Male FemaleMænd Kvinder
2000
Median age
37,6
Population (i tusental)
OECD
More developed regions
Low Variant
Population (in 1000)
40,00030,00020,00010,000010,00020,00030,00040,000
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90-94
95-99
100+ Male FemaleMænd Kvinder
2010
Median age
40,8
Population (i tusental)
OECD
More developed regions
Low Variant
Population (in 1000)
40,00030,00020,00010,000010,00020,00030,00040,000
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90-94
95-99
100+ Male FemaleMænd Kvinder
2020
Median age
43,8
Population (i tusental)
OECD
More developed regions
Low Variant
Population (in 1000)
40,00030,00020,00010,000010,00020,00030,00040,000
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90-94
95-99
100+ Male FemaleMænd Kvinder
2030
Median age
46,6
Population (i tusental)
OECD
More developed regions
Low Variant
Population (in 1000)
40,00030,00020,00010,000010,00020,00030,00040,000
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90-94
95-99
100+ Male FemaleMænd Kvinder
2040
Median age
49,4
Population (i tusental)
OECD
More developed regions
Low Variant
Population (in 1000)
40,00030,00020,00010,000010,00020,00030,00040,000
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90-94
95-99
100+ Male FemaleMænd Kvinder
2050
Median age
51,1
Population (i tusental)
OECD
We’re not alone
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Senior lines • K-citymarket (Finland) testing slow-track checkout
lane for the old and handicapped
• Slow moving belt, help with placing items on belt, small talking with the co-worker
• Lane is called: “SLOW”
• Grab a chair - sit down – and enjoy the atmosphere
0 20 40 60 80
80 60 40 20 0
Around 1950
Around 2020
Dep
en
den
t
Ind
ep
en
de
nt
Fre
e 1
Pare
nts
Fre
e I
I
Eld
erl
y
Life Phases
Age
Age
Omkari Panwar, 70 år
Source: HSCB Insurance, 2011: The Future of retirement
Better than expected The experience of life in retirement after 60, is almost everywhere better than expected – whether comparing missing work, financial security or standards of living. The survey shows that far from being a time of misery, penury and frailty, life for most people in their 60s and 70s is characterised by good health, independence, control and a good quality of life
Urban population by major geographical area (in per cent of total population)
United Nations:World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision
And we are all moving to the city
Genkai Shuraku- marginal village
A community that has reached a critical limit in the number of elderly that ultimately hinders their ability to function properly. 50% of the population above 65 (18.775 villages) will be Genkai Shuraku in 2020.
Source: DS (2012)
Four major urbanization trends
Importance of global 600
600 most important
contributors to global GDP
Emergence of mega cities
Cities with over 5 million inhabitants
Mega regions
Cities combining with suburbs to
form regions (population over
10 million)
Mega corridors
The corridors connecting two major cities or mega regions
EXAMPLE: Hong Kong-Shenzhen-
Guangzhou in China (population
120 Million+)
• Today: "Pentagon": London, Hamburg, München, Milano og Paris.
• I 2040: The Pentagon goes east: London, Paris, Hamburg og Warszawa.
Source: EPSON 2006, IDA, 2009, NISA 2010
Feminization of society -- the evolution of authority
She-conomy
• The average American woman is expected to earn more than the average American male by 2028.
• Women account for 85% of all consumer purchases :
– 91% of New Homes
– 66% PCs
– 92% Vacations
– 80% Healthcare
– 65% New Cars
– 89% Bank Accounts
– 93% Food
– 93 % OTC Pharmaceuticals
Sources: She-conomy.com
Feminization of society -- the evolution of authority Nordic Region Women graduates ISCED 5+6
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Men
Women
Lineær (Men)
Lineær (Women)
Business, law, social sciences. Engineering, however, no change
0,00%
10,00%
20,00%
30,00%
40,00%
50,00%
60,00%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
3. Social science, business and law
4. Natural science, mathematics and computing
5. Engineering, manufacturing and construction
Lineær ( 3. Social science, business and law)
Lineær ( 4. Natural science, mathematics and computing)
Lineær ( 4. Natural science, mathematics and computing)
Women graduates grew 2,5 times faster than men
Design, products and services for women
In 2000, only 1/4 of Danish women earned more than their partner
Today, 1/3 of Danish women earn more than their partner
Towards, 2028 72% of purchasing decisions will be made by women…if BCG is correct
Sources: DS, 2012, DDC, 2011
Growing portion are single
Reflections
conclusions
Consequences
Aging?
Urbanization
She-conomy
Megatrends Network society
Sustainability
Knowledge society
Immaterialization
Democratization
Acceleration and complexity
Technologic development
Economic growth
Demographic development
Focus on health
Polarization
Globalization
Commercialization
Individualization
Please, help yourself
Holy Grail—a 5.6-ounce running shoe called the Flyknit, made from synthetic yarn ingeniously woven together by a knitting machine.
Megatrends Network society
Sustainability
Knowledge society
Immaterialization
Democratization
Acceleration and complexity
Technologic development
Economic growth
Demographic development
Focus on health
Polarization
Globalization
Commercialization
Individualization
From To
A consequence of the financial crisis
Critical success factor in business
Numerous studies show that on average, a business located in a cluster has a
stronger growth and survival rate than those located outside it.
Clusters enhance the following:
» Productivity
» Innovation
» New business formation
Source: HBR, 1998
Critical success factor identified within global search
New business formation Productivity Innovation
Example of clusters in various industries
Financial services
• London City, New York
Film • Hollywood, “Bollywood”
Cars • Detroit, Toyota City, Wolfsburg, Stuttgart
Watches • Switzerland, Japan
Flowers • The Netherlands, Colombia
Computer software
• Silicon Valley, Bangalore
Wine
• Barossa Valley, Rioja, Bordeaux, Southern Chile, parts of California
Biotech, life sciences and
medical instruments
• Boston’s Route 128, BioValley 21, Medicon Valley
Clusters typology can be based on organization criteria:
• industrial clusters (rural areas, no leader firm, shift from small-scale production to
industry, informal relationships)
– e.g.: Italian industrial districts
• technological clusters (urban area, incubator role, professional relationships)
– e.g.: aircraft industry in Toulouse/France, wood industry in Banská Bystrica region/Slovakia
• SMEs concentration (rural areas, network activities, informal relationships)
– e.g: tourism industry
• system around a leader firm (urban area, hierarchical relationships)
– e.g.: automotive sector in Montbéliard/France, Trnava/Slovakia (PSA Peugeot)
Clusters in Italy
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
UK
Latv
iaIr
elan
dIt
aly
Bu
lgar
iaA
ust
ria
Turk
eyC
roat
iaP
ort
uga
lN
orw
ayB
elgi
um
Swed
enFi
nla
nd
Esto
nia
Ger
man
ySl
ova
kia
Net
her
lan
ds
Slo
ven
iaH
un
gary
Fran
ceR
om
ania
Luxe
mb
ou
rgIs
lan
dM
alta
Lith
uan
iaSw
itze
rlan
dSp
ain
Den
mar
kG
reec
eC
zech
Rep
ub
licP
ola
nd
Cyp
rus
Companies active in cluster-like environment (%)
Others
Cluster likeenvironment
0123456
Cro
atia
Lith
uan
iaSl
ove
nia
Latv
iaP
ola
nd
Cyp
rus
Mal
taFi
nla
nd
Gre
ece
Esto
nia
Turk
eyB
ulg
aria
Slo
vaki
aD
enm
ark
Bel
giu
mR
om
ania
Irel
and
Ge
rman
ySw
eden
No
rway
Po
rtu
gal
Luxe
mb
ou
rgSp
ain
UK
Isla
nd
Fran
ceA
ust
ria
Swit
zerl
and
Cze
ch…
Ital
yN
eth
erla
nd
sH
un
gary
Partnership Diversity Index • Public administration • University and other
education institutions • Public laboratories or
research centers • Large companies • Small and Medium
Enterprises • Start-ups / Newly
established companies • Financial institutions
Source: Eurobarometer, 2006
Cluster: evolution of concept
Geographic concentrations of interconnected companies,
specialized suppliers, service providers, firms in related
industries, and associated institutions in particular fields
that compete but also cooperate.
Michael E. Porter (1998)
Top-down approaches have proven ineffective to improve firms’ (esp.
SMEs) innovation capacity
Network arrangements that, though embedded in,
transcend geographical location, focus on global
markets, operate as ad-hoc and/or long term business
networks, are ICT enabled, and are based on dynamic
aggregations of capabilities of different SMEs.
Damaskopoulos et al (2008)
Networks and open knowledge clusters, bottom-up conceived, are the alternative for SMEs to flourish
Network society
Sustainability
Knowledge society
Immaterialization
Democratization
Complexity and acceleration
Technologic development
Economic growth
Demographic development
Focus on health
Polarization
Globalization
Commercialization
Individualization
CIFS megatrends
Network society
Sustainability
Knowledge society
Immaterialization
Democratization
Complexity and acceleration
Technologic development
Economic growth
Demographic development
Focus on health
Polarization
Globalization
Commercialization
Individualization
CIFS megatrends
Productivity
A new society requires new ways of working
20th century
• “Limited” social interaction
• Value in transactions
• Business stability
• Well-defined industries and hierarchies
• One-way markets
• Limited information
• Resource abundance
21st century
• Pervasive social interaction
• Value in relationships
• Business flux
• Industry transformation
• Two-way markets
• Information abundance
• Resource constraints
Institutions Forces • Ambient communication • Global information flows • Social computing • Market discontinuity
Communities
CONTROL Source: Dion Hinchchiffe, 2010
Clusters and productivity
» Better access to employees and suppliers
» Access to specialized information
» Complementarities
» Access to institutions and public goods
» Better motivation and measurement
Network society
Sustainability
Knowledge society
Immaterialization
Democratization
Complexity and acceleration
Technologic development
Economic growth
Demographic development
Focus on health
Polarization
Globalization
Commercialization
Individualization
CIFS megatrends
Innovation
Hyper specialization
• As labor becomes more knowledge based and communication technology advances, the division of labor accelerates.
• It leads to improvements in:
» quality,
» speed and
» cost.
Source: HBR, 2012
Increasing talent mobility
81,3 86,3 99,3
111
154,9 165,1
176,7 190,6
214
0
50
100
150
200
250
Nu
mb
er (
mill
ian
)
Year
Source: Global Talent Strategy (2012), Oxford economics (2013)
Managing talent, Leadership Development, and Strategic Workforce Planning Are Perceived as the Most Critical Topics
Source: BCG/WFPMA, 2012. Modified by CIFS
Open source innovation & Crowdsourcing
Investment in product development
0
5
1015
20
2530
35
40
45
Busin
ess model
Netw
ork
Sup
. Proces
Core proces
Pro
duct
Pro
duct system
Service
Sales chan
nel
Bran
d
Custo
mer exp.
Larry Keeley. www.doblin.com. 3000 projects examined.
Value Creation due to product development
0
5
1015
20
2530
35
40
45
Busin
ess model
Netw
ork
Sup
. Proces
Core proces
Pro
duct
Pro
duct system
Service
Sales chan
nel
Bran
d
Custo
mer exp.
Larry Keeley. www.doblin.com. 3000 projects examined.
Business model innovators outperform traditional innovators
Innovation is higher in clusters than elsewhere
78
63
53
44 41
29 29
74
56
33
53
20 14 12
Introduce new orsignificantly
improvedproducts or
services
Introduce new orsignificantly
improvedproductiontechnology
Conduct marketresearch for
introducing newproducts or
services
Carry out in-house research
Contract outresearch to otherfirms, universities
or researchinstitutes
Register one ormore
internationaltrademarks
Apply for one ormore patents
Innovative cluster companies Inovative companies
Source: Eurobarometer, 2006
Network society
Sustainability
Knowledge society
Immaterialization
Democratization
Complexity and acceleration
Technologic development
Economic growth
Demographic development
Focus on health
Polarization
Globalization
Commercialization
Individualization
CIFS megatrends
New business formation
FoodNetwork: Innovation at Eye Level
The aim:
• create growth within the food industry through networks, projects and activities
• be the link that ensures visibility of the relevant • partners within the food industry support and
facilitate existing and new clusters
Main participants:
• Companies: Q food, Nørre Kærgård Bison, Delika, India Dan, Sans og samling Gastronomi, Lindbjerg Økoged, Sørvad Frilandgrise & fodboldgolf, Canstantia2, Selleberg, Gårdmosteriet Fyn, Højvang, Claudis Have, Mylius-Erichsens Bryghus, Jæger-Holding, Jens Møller Products, Canard, Danika-Grønt, Kokken og Jomfruen, Christian Vollstedt
• Knowledge Institutions: Knowledge for-Food Development, Danish Technological Institute, Holstebro Technical College, AgroTech
• 8 private consultants, Food Center Videbæk
Four development groups:
• Meat development group (new recipes based on bison meat)
• Logistics group (develop a model for a joint sales and distribution)
• Business Development workshop (individual projects development and counseling process)
• Internationalization workshop (individual projects development and counseling process)
Novelty of the case activity:
• New approach to interaction between individual counseling and development in small groups
• Particular groups who have been joined across the value chain and have worked together to develop concrete recipes or concepts.
• ‘Innovation at eye level’ was an isolated project, but it is a method we will continue to develop and refine for future activities and projects.
Kalundborg Symbiosis
Clusters internationalization
Cluster
Suppliers
Manufacturers
Distributors
Academic institutions
Researchers
Workforce training
» Networked projects
» Cross‐clusters
» Trans‐local relations
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
www.iff.dk
Claus Kjeldsen
+45 28 25 31 01