Markus Rosenthal

Managing Director, nuances

25 February 2015

Open Road | London

Coalition Building for Britain: Any lessons to be learned from German politics?

Setting the scene

Coalitions are a way of life in Germany

Negotiations can take weeks and months at a time

Outside views are still considered

Coalition contracts have 130+ pages

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Germany: Coalitions are a way of life

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© WikiNight2

SPD + GreensCDU + SPDSPD +CDUCSU

Greens + SPDGreens + CDUSPD + the Left

The Left + SPD + GreensSPD + Greens + SSWSPD

Composition of the Federal Council“Bundesrat” – the upper house

Coalitions in the “Länder”

Grand Coalition

Red-Green Coalition

Black-Yellow Coalition

Social-Liberal Coalition

“Ampel“ Coalition

Red-Red Coalition

Red-Red-Green Coalition

Black-Green Coalition

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© Bundesrat

Which parties matter?

CDU – Christian Democratic Union

CSU – Christian Social Union

SPD – Social Democratic Party

FDP – Free Democratic Party (Free Market)

Greens – self-explanatory

The Left – Socialists/Communists; the party roots go back to the SED, the governing party of the GDR

AfD – Alternative for Germany

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Not in the Bundestag

Not in the Bundestag

Coalitions since Helmut Kohl

Chancellor Helmut Kohl of the Black-Yellow Coalition

– 1982 - 1983 Kohl‘s Cabinet I

– 1983 - 1987 Kohl‘s Cabinet II

– 1987 - 1991 Kohl‘s Cabinet III

– 1991 - 1994 Kohl‘s Cabinet IV

– 1994 - 1998 Kohl‘s Cabinet V

Chancellor Gerhard Schröder of the Red-Green Coalition

– 1998 - 2002 Schröder‘s Cabinet I

– 2002 - 2005 Schröder‘s Cabinet II

Chancellor Angela Merkel of the Grand Coalition and the Black-Yellow Coalition

– 2005 - 2009 Merkel‘s Cabinet I

– 2009 - 2013 Merkel‘s Cabinet II

– 2013 - present Merkel‘s Cabinet III

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Governing Parties

Special case: CSU - Bavaria

Similarities to the SNP

Strong sense of regional identity

CSU views matter on a national level

CSU policies are often not in the

national interest. Regional interests ahead of national interests:

– road toll for foreign drivers on the Autobahn

– no new electricity lines from northern Germany to southern Germany

Differences from the SNP

Sister-Party of the CDU (conservative) –

contributes about one sixth of the

vote to the overall CDU results

Participated in a lot of national

governments

CSU influence is strong due to the fact that they are threating – from time to time – to leave the coalition and don´t want to be the sister party of the CDU anymore

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Duration of the negotiations

16th German Bundestag (2005) – 7 weeks

17th German Bundestag (2009) – 4 weeks

18th German Bundestag (2013) – 8 weeks

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The party leaders of the current coalition

Angela Merkel – Christian Democratic Union (CDU)

Horst Seehofer – Christian Social Union (CSU)

Sigmar Gabriel – Social Democratic Party (SPD)

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Coalitions should be easy to run with a coalition committee

The Coalition Committee consists of:

Angela Merkel: CDU leader, Chancellor, member of the Bundestag (MdB)

Sigmar Gabriel: SPD leader, Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy,

member of the Bundestag (MdB)

Horst Seehofer: CSU leader, Prime Minister of Bavaria

– Seehofer is not in the federal parliament, but he is very influential in determining coalition policies

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However, the reality is…

It rarely meets – about one or two meetings per year

The work is done by the “underlings”

Ideas from outside are needed = lots of opportunities to make your voice heard

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Coalitions simply mean –if you choose the right partner, you will stay in power

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How it works in Germany

Companies, communications agencies and pressure groups lobby before and

during coalition talks

Only in the very last days do leaders sit together without any outside influence

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Length of Coalition Agreements:

16th German Bundestag (2005) – CDU, CSU & SPD: 168 pages

17th German Bundestag (2009) – CDU, CSU & FDP: 132 pages

18th German Bundestag (2013) – CDU, CSU & SPD: 130 pages

How it works in Germany

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What the UK can learn from the German experience – if it wishes to.

If UK elections no longer produce a clear result, leading to coalitions or

agreements, this will change the mind-set of politicians – they will always be

thinking of deals they may have to make with other parties

Coalition negotiations may become more formal and it may take longer before a

government is formed

Coalition agreements may become much more detailed

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Thank you for your time

Markus Rosenthal

Managing Director

nuances

Neue Grünstraße 17/18

10179 Berlin, Germany

T +49 (0)30 257 407 20

F +49 (0)30 257 407 29

mrosenthal@nuances.de

www.nuances.de