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“Dealing With UNCERTAINTIES in implementing Intelligent Speed Adaptation
- An Adaptive Policymaking Approach”
By:
Vishal Mehta
Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management
Delft University of Technology
Structure of the Presentation•Problem outline
•Adaptive policymaking Approach
•Research Question
•Research methodology
•ISA and its impacts
•Thinking Phase
Step 1
Step 2
Step 3
•Implementation phase
•Conclusions and Recommendations
Problem Outline
Accidents on road
• In Netherlands there were 1082 deaths and 19,000 injuries in road traffic in 2001.
•The estimated accident cost is around 7 billion US$ per year in Netherlands.
•Also in EU there are 42,500 deaths and 3.5 million injuries in road traffic.
SPEED of the vehicle contributes 1/3 of the total road accidents.
Speed targets [NL] for 2000 were 5-10% lower avg. Speed than 1985 and V90
Actions
•Road categorisation
•Speed limit for each road
•Intro to black boxes
•Roundabouts
•Optical lane narrowing
•Dynamic warning signs
•Airbags and seat belts
•Speed cameras and police surveillance
Implementing these actions, the speed targets were not achieved and also 40% reduction in deaths and 28% reduction in injury level due to accident on road [target for 2010] still needs to be attained.
Intelligent Speed Adaptation [ISA]
•A promising branch of ADAS to improve traffic safety on the road
•Controls the speed of the vehicle as per the speed limit of the road.
•Reduces fatalities due to accident on road ranging from 18% to 59% for different kinds of ISA.
Problem Outline
Uncertainties related to ISA implementation
•New Technology
•Only small scale and simulation studies
•User acceptance
•Standards for implementing
•Organisational, legal and technological uncertainties
•Effects of external factors to the system
•From a policymaking point of view it is important to deal with these uncertainties as ISA seems to substantially contribute to the goal of traffic safety.
Problem Outline
Identify the problem
Analyze and compare alternatives
Selection & screening of alternatives
Develop scenarios
Decide on outcomes of interest
Specify objectives
Implement alternative or policy
Monitor and evaluate results
Traditional policy making
Shortcomings
•Any scenario has zero probability of occurrence.
•Trend breaking scenarios
•Assumptions
•Single static policy
•No rethinking about the policy in accordance with the changing information in the system.
•Traditional Policy making approach is categorised as sit and wait attitude towards dealing with uncertainties.
The Adaptive Policymaking Approach
Defensive Actions
Corrective Actions
Reassessment
Other ActionsUnforeseen events
Changing preferences
THINKING PHASE
I. STAGE SETTING
II. ASSEMBLING THE BASIC POLICY
Definition of success
Constraints
Policy Option setObjectives
Necessary condition for success
Basic Policy
III. SPECIFYING REST OF POLICY
Vulnerabilities
Mitigating Actions
Hedging Actions
Sign Posts Triggers
Certain
Uncertain
IMPLEMENTATION PHASE
Research Question
“How can Adaptive Policy be developed to deal with vulnerabilities [uncertainties] in implementing ISA [as a policy option] in existing Dutch Transportation System?"
Research Methodology [framework of Adaptive Policymaking Approach is adopted]
•Literature study – Road Transportation system, Intelligent Speed Adaptation, Intelligent Transport Systems, Advanced Driver Assistance Systems, Dutch transport system and
Adaptive Policy making.
•Basic Analysis – System model, Actor &Network Analysis and Objective Analysis
Developing Adaptive Policy
Step 1 – Identifying the objective [reduce accidents], constraints, policy option [ISA] and definition of success.
•Step 2 – Specifying the basic policy for implementation and identifying the necessary conditions of success.
•Step 3 – Identifying vulnerabilities related mitigating and hedging actions and their signposts and trigger level for each signposts.
•Step 4 – Functioning of the policy during implementation and what policy actions – defensive or corrective or reassessment are to be taken in response to change in signpost information.
Intelligent Speed Adaptation
Types of ISA
By Automation level
•Advisory
•Voluntary
•Mandatory
By function
•Fixed
•Variable
•Dynamic
9 combinations of ISA are possible
Intelligent Speed Adaptation – System Architecture(GPS)
ANALYSIS
Brake
Pedals
Sensors Intelligence[CPU]
Actuators
Buttons
Wheel rotation
Wheel speed
GPS Navigator
Engine Speed Throttle
Control Systems
Display PanelPosition: Latitude & LongitudeLocation:
RoadDirectionSpeed limitDistance from destinationOthers
Application software
MAPS
DataVehicle speed
Velocity Location & timeEngine speedOverriding %Driver’s ID & behaviour
Data Processing
Transmission to server via GSM
Data StructuringCDAS
GPS receiver
Satellite
Speed limits
Memory
Communication system
Intelligent Speed Adaptation – System Architecture (Beacon)
Vehicle
Beacon
Transmission tower
Main Server
Comm. Tower
IBM Compatible
System
Function
Subsystem
Function
Equipment
Function
ISA
Controlling and adjusting the speed of the vehicle on the road according to the speed limit posted.
Global Positioning System
GPS helps in positioning or locating the moving vehicle on the road.
Control Systems
Controls the operation of the system installed in the vehicles. It senses the vehicular motion - processes it and actuates the control system to control the speed.
C-DAS
Collection and data acquisition about individual vehicle and their movement on the road.
Beacons
The beacon transfers the signal about the speed limit to the vehicle.
SatelliteLocating the vehicle on the road and sending the signal (micro/radio wave) to the vehicle about its position in latitude and longitude.
Antenna & Preamplifier Processes the received signals send by the satellite and forward it to the navigator.
GPS NavigatorReads the signal received and displays the vehicle on the map stored with software in CD and also speed limit for each road. It helps in navigating the vehicle to the destination.
SensorsSenses wheel rotation and brake status and sends information to CPU.
CPUInformation on wheel rotation & location of the vehicle or by beacon is processed & speed limit is identified from stored data.
ActuatorsAfter receiving the processed information about the speed limit, it controls the speed of the vehicle on the road and offers resistance if the driver attempts to override and apply active braking.
GPS
Beacon
Intelligent Speed Adaptation – Functions of different system components of ISA and its hierarchy
Intelligent Speed Adaptation – Network Effects
Different tests on effects of ISA on road transport system have been done in United Kingdom, Sweden, Belgium, Netherlands, Germany, France, etc.
•Accidents [100% penetration level]
ISA TypeSpeed limit type
Best estimate of injury accident reduction (%)
Best estimate of fatal and serious accident reduction (%)
Best estimate of fatal accident reduction (death) (%)
Advisory ISA
Fixed 10 14 18
Variable 10 14 19
Dynamic 13 18 24
Voluntary ISA
Fixed 10 15 19
Variable 11 16 20
Dynamic 18 26 32
Mandatory ISA
Fixed 20 29 37
Variable 22 31 39
Dynamic 36 48 59
Application Road type Severity
Estimated accident reduction [%]
Low “BEST” High
General speed limit advice
Non built up All injury 8.7 17.5 25
Built up All injury 0 6.5 19.4
Geometry related
Non Built up All injury 0 10 20
Darkness Unlit Dual Carriageway
All injury 0 20 48.5
Adverse weather and road surface
Non Built up All injury 7.5 20 48.5
System Road type
Severity
Accident type
estimated accident reduction [%]
Low “BEST” High
Fixed
Non built up roads
All injury
All 10 31 56
All built up roads
All injury
Pedestrian 13.5 21 28
All built up roads
All injury
Non pedestrian
10 15 20
VariableNon built up roads
All injury
Geometry- based single carriageway
30 41 74
Dynamic
Non built up roads
All injury
Darkness 23 37 50
Rain and wet road
10 30 50
Snow 33 57 80
Advisory ISA
Mandatory ISA
Source UK Leeds
Intelligent Speed Adaptation – Network Effects
•Speed Distribution and Speed
Variable Speed offences reduction % Average speed reduction km/hBefore ISA After ISA Before ISA After ISA
1st period 2nd period 1st period 2nd periodLund active gas
30 km/h 33.7% -14.1% -6.9% 21.9 -0.8 -0.250 km/h 28.2% -15.0% -12.8% 36.4 -1.1 -1.2370 km/h 35.9% -18.1% -13.6% 58.7 -2.0 -2.0Borlange - informative
30 km/h 33.8% -9.6% -3.4% 25.3 -0.6 -0.650 km/h 31.1% -16.4% -11.8% 38.7 -1.5 -1.570 km/h 21.4% -13.0% -9.4% 58.7 -2.8 -3.090 km/h 25.1% -16.7% -11.4% 84.4 -2.5 -3.4110 km/h 12.4% -9.5% -7.4% 97.3 -1.1 n.a.
Source UK Leeds Source: Sweden
Source: Sweden
Intelligent Speed Adaptation – Network Effects
It also has other effects like
•Decrease in Fuel Consumption
• Decrease in Emissions
•Improves Traffic flow and road capacity
•Travel time almost remains the same
•Driver feels more taxing, irritating, frustrating, under stress, etc.
BUT all these ISA results are based on small scale and simulation studies, so it is uncertain that it the impacts on large scale implementation and in real world would be same as discussed in results
Intelligent Speed Adaptation –Test in Netherlands
30km/h 50km/h 80km/h
•A study into the costs and benefits of lowering speeds of cars in the Netherlands has shown that enforcing the current speed limits would lead to a reduction in the number of hospital admissions by 15% and in the number of fatalities by 21%.
•Fuel consumption and carbon dioxide emissions would decrease by 11% and the emission of nitrogen oxides by 11%.
•Positive effects would lead to a decrease in the cost to society worth a total of US$ 250 million per year in the Netherlands.
•The interaction between the ISA drivers and non-ISA drivers can lead to undesirable manoeuvres by the non-ISA drivers while passing or tailgating.
User Acceptance
Speed Patterns
Source: -NL Test RWS
The Adaptive Policymaking Approach
Defensive Actions
Corrective Actions
Reassessment
Other ActionsUnforeseen events
Changing preferences
THINKING PHASE
I. STAGE SETTING
II. ASSEMBLING THE BASIC POLICY
Definition of success
Constraints
Policy Option setObjectives
Necessary condition for success
Basic Policy
III. SPECIFYING REST OF POLICY
Vulnerabilities
Mitigating Actions
Hedging Actions
Sign Posts Triggers
Certain
Uncertain
IMPLEMENTATION PHASE
In the following slides adaptive policy is developed.
Step 3- SPECIFYING THE REST OF THE POLICY
IMPLEMENTATION
Step 2- ASSEMBLING BASIC POLICY
Step 1 - STAGE SETTING
Identify Constraints
Definition of success
Policy optionsObjectives
Specifying thePolicy
Necessary conditions forsuccess
VULNERABILITIESare identified.
Develop Mitigatingactions for certainvulnerabilities
Develop Hedginga c t i o n s f o ru n c e r t a i nvulnerabilities
S i g n p o s t s a r eidentified for differentvulnerabilities
Trigger levelof the signpostare set
Reassesment
Defensive Actions
Corrective Actions
Other Actions,Unforeseen
events
Step 1 – Stage Setting
Objective
•Traffic Safety: Reduction in accidents [problem owner]
Setting Policy Option
•Considering the accident scenario in NL and speed accident relationship and positive effects of ISA in reducing accidents Intelligent Speed Adaptation is selected as a policy option that has to be implemented.
Constraints
•Financial constraints
•Congestion on the road should not increase because of ISA implementation
•Average travel time on the road should not increase because of ISA implementation
•Air and Noise pollution should not increase because of ISA
Authorities
Market constellation
Demand side constellation
Supply side constellation
Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management- NLEuropean UnionLocal MunicipalitiesLaw enforcement agencies Automobile Industry [National and EU]Original Equipment Manufacturers for ISAService Providers [speed data and communication]Road Operators Insurance companiesResearch institutes and universitiesTransport companiesDrivers/UsersMotorists Other road usersTraffic policeEnvironmental Agencies
Step 1 – Stage Setting
Actors and Stakeholders involved in implementing ISA
Step 1 – Stage Setting
Definition of Success
•Reduction of road fatalities to 750 and injuries to 14,000 by 2010
•Achieving the V90 target
•Congestion travel time Air and Noise pollution on the road should not increase because of ISA implementation
System Diagram
Socio EconomicSub System
Road Sub System
Environmental SubSystem
Driver’s Sub System
Economic Change
Transport Demand
Fuel Price
TechnologicalAdvancement
Accidents
Congestion
Travel time
Local Pollution
Intelligent SpeedAdaptationEXTERNAL
VARIABLES
POLICYINSTRUMENT
OUTCOMES OFINTEREST
System Boundary
Step 3- SPECIFYING THE REST OF THE POLICY
IMPLEMENTATION
Step 2- ASSEMBLING BASIC POLICY
Step 1 - STAGE SETTINGIdentify Constraints
Definition of success
Policy optionsObjectives
Specifying thePolicy
Necessary conditions forsuccess
VULNERABILITIESare identified.
Develop Mitigatingactions for certainvulnerabilities
Develop Hedginga c t i o n s f o ru n c e r t a i nvulnerabilities
S i g n p o s t s a r eidentified for differentvulnerabilities
Trigger levelof the signpostare set
Reassesment
Defensive Actions
Corrective Actions
Other Actions,Unforeseen
events
Step 2 – Assembling Basic Policy
Specifying the basic policy [ISA] for implementation
•The basic policy is implemented for unsafe road, unsafe vehicles, unsafe drivers and unsafe traffic conditions.
Environment
Infrastructure
VehicleDriver
Other road users & traffic conditions
Intelligent Speed Adaptation
By Level of Automation By Function Communication technology
Categories for implementation
Infrastructure: Road category of Motorway, Highway, Rural road or Urban roadVehicle: Cars, Light vehicle or Heavy vehicle, motorbikes, etc.Driver: Can be categorised by Age, Driving Experience, Commercial or Private Drivers, etc.Traffic Conditions: High or Low Traffic density areas, Mixed or Homogenous traffic conditions Type of ISA: By Automation level – Advisory, Voluntary &Mandatory
: By function of speed – Static, Variable and DynamicCommunication Technology: GPS or Beacon Environment: Weather conditions, lighting conditions, road surface, visibility, etc.
Step 2 – Assembling Basic Policy
Specifying the basic policy [ISA] for implementation
•Specifying the road category – unsafe roads- URBAN ROADS [30-80km/h]
•Specifying the vehicle type – unsafe vehicle - CARS
•Specifying the user group – unsafe drivers – YOUNG DRIVERS [18-34 yrs.]
•Specifying the traffic density and traffic conditions - ALL
•Specifying the type of ISA – VOLUNTARY DYNAMIC ISA
•Specifying the communication technology – GPS & BEACON
Hence the basic policy to be implemented is Voluntary Dynamic ISA on Urban roads for Young Car drivers.
The basic policy is implemented on voluntary basis and not on mandatory basis.
Step 2 – Assembling Basic Policy
Necessary Conditions of Success
•Economic conditions
•Social conditions
•Technical/Technological conditions
•Organizational and Political conditions
•Legal conditions
•System related conditions
Positive Net Present Value and Market Success
•NPV
•Consumer demand
User Acceptance
Accurate speed limit data
Reliable communication technology
Operational reliability of ISA
Cooperation between Actors and Stakeholders
Developing Standards
Liability Issue in times of accident
Privacy Issues
Decrease in speed and speed distribution [on higher side]
•Penetration level
•Rate of penetration level
•Cases with wrongly posted speed limit
•Cases with lack of communication signal
•Cases with malfunction of ISA system•Interest of actors and stakeholders
involved in implementation
•Change in speed and speed offences on road
Indicators
Step 3- SPECIFYING THE REST OF THE POLICY
IMPLEMENTATION
Step 2- ASSEMBLING BASIC POLICY
Step 1 - STAGE SETTINGIdentify Constraints
Definition of success
Policy optionsObjectives
Specifying thePolicy
Necessary conditions forsuccess
VULNERABILITIESare identified.
D e v e l o pM i t i g a t i n gactions for certainvulnerabilities
Develop Hedginga c t i o n s f o ru n c e r t a i nvulnerabilities
Signposts arei d e n t i f i e d f o rd i f f e r e n tvulnerabilities
Trigger levelo f t h esignpost areset
Reassesment
Defensive Actions
Corrective Actions
Other Actions,Unforeseen
events
Step 3 – Specifying the Rest of the Policy
Market FailureUser acceptanceLegal barriersISA Operation problems
Transport demandEconomic changeFuel priceTechnology advancement
Uncertainty about the effect of ISA on internal factors of system: like speed, speed distribution, speed offences, traffic density, owning &operating cost.
Policy Making Process
Policies
Policy Maker Problem owner and Stakeholders
Goals, Objective & Preferences
External factors
System domain for policies
Internal factors
Outcomes of
interest
ISA
Uncertainty related to change in stance of actors in implementing ISA
Uncertainty about desire value of the outcomes and valuation by actor as ISA is a new technology
Identifying Vulnerabilities
Step 3 – Specifying the Rest of the Policy
Mitigating Actions and Hedging Actions
•These actions are to be implemented now
•Mitigating actions are developed for certain vulnerabilities and Hedging actions are developed for uncertain vulnerabilities.
Example:
User Acceptance – uncertain
Hedging Actions
•Training programs to use ISA
•Incentives
•Advertisements and campaigns
•User report
Signposts
•Monitoring systems
•Information collected during implementation
User Acceptance
•Rate of Penetration level
•Results of user report
Step 3 – Specifying the Rest of the Policy
Triggers
•Critical Value of the Signpost.
•Policy Actions would be taken in response to the change in trigger level.
Success Criteria
Time limit
Signposts Desired values Undesired or Critical values
Regret Level 1 [less critical]
Regret Level 2 [more critical]
Conditions of reassessment
POLICY ACTION
Triggers
60% penetration level
Rate of Penetration
Increase in 1% / month
Less than 1% per month
0.7% to 0.9% rate of penetration per month for 1 year
0.5% to 0.7% rate of penetration per month for 1 year
Condition of Reassessment
POLICY ACTION
5 years
Identifying and Handling Triggers
Implementation PhaseSignpost 1
Signpost 2
Signpost n
CollectINFORMATION
YES
NO NO ACTIONDecide critical value attained
CheckRegret level
Level 1 Level 2
Defensive Action
Corrective Action
Desired change in
regret level
YES
NO
Step 1 restart again
YES
NO
Reassessment
Check Conditions of Reassessmen
t
Step 3- SPECIFYING THE REST OF THE POLICY
IMPLEMENTATION
Step 2- ASSEMBLING BASIC POLICY
Step 1 - STAGE SETTINGIdentify Constraints
Definition of success
Policy optionsObjectives
Specifying thePolicy
Necessary conditions forsuccess
VULNERABILITIESare identified.
D e v e l o p
M i t i g a t i n gactions for certainvulnerabilities
Develop Hedginga c t i o n s f o ru n c e r t a i nvulnerabilities
Signposts arei d e n t i f i e d f o rd i f f e r e n tvulnerabilities
Trigger levelo f t h esignpost areset
Reassesment
Defensive Actions
Corrective Actions
Other Actions,Unforeseen
events
Implementation Phase
•Defensive actions are the one which are taken to defend the policy
•Corrective actions are related change in basic policy or policy action or change in definition of success
•Conditions of Reassessment
Contd. With the example of user acceptanceSignpost – Rate of Penetration level
Regret level 1 – Defensive actions
•Increase in speeding fines so that people prefer to buy ISA rather than paying fine
•More Incentives
Regret level 2 – Corrective actions
•Introduce ISA on Mandatory basis
•Implement for all age drivers or all road category.
Condition of Reassessment
The rate of penetration level is not increasing over the period of time or has increased but later decreases
Conclusions
Related to ISA
•Implementation surrounded by uncertainties
•User acceptance is the most important necessary condition of success.
Related to Adaptive Policymaking
•Logical and systematic way of dealing with uncertainties as compared to traditional policy making
•Lot of legal and political support is required
Recommendations
Related to ISA
•Issues to be addressed before implementation of ISA are Legal and Technical operations of ISA system.
Related to Adaptive Policymaking
•Development of more analytical tools which would help in developing policy and also during implementation