Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Exploration & Production (E&P) Market 2014-2024

Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Exploration & Production (E&P) Market Forecast

2014-2024Prospects for Top Companies with Seismic, Drilling,

Subsea & FPS Technologies

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Contents 1. Report Overview 1.1 Global Deepwater and Ultra Deepwater Market Overview

1.2 Global Deepwater and Ultra Deepwater Market Segmentation

1.3 Why You Should Read This Report

1.4 How This Report Delivers

1.5 Key Questions Answered by This Analytical Report Include:

1.6 Who is This Report For?

1.7 Methodology & Market Definition

1.8 Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

1.9 Associated Visiongain Reports

1.10 About Visiongain

2. Introduction to the Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Exploration &

Production Market 2.1 Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Exploration & Production Market Structure

2.2 Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Exploration & Production Market Definition

2.3 Regional Focus and Trends

2.4 The Economics of Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Production

3. The Global Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Exploration & Production

Market 3.1 Global Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Exploration & Production Market Forecast 2014-2024

3.2 Global Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Exploration & Production Market Drivers & Restraints

3.2.1 High Oil Prices and Resource Potential Support Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Development

3.2.2 Will the Costs of Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater E&P Be Too Tight?

4. The Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Exploration & Production

Submarkets 4.1 Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Exploration & Production Submarkets Forecast 2014-2024

4.2 Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Exploration & Production Seismic Submarket Forecast 2014-2024

4.2.1 Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Exploration & Production Seismic Submarket Analysis

4.2.2 Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Exploration & Production Seismic Submarket Drivers and Restraints

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Contents 4.3 Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Exploration & Production Drilling Submarket Forecast 2014-2024

4.3.1 Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Exploration & Production Drilling Submarket Analysis

4.3.2 Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Exploration & Production Drilling Submarket Drivers and Restraints

4.3.3 Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Exploration & Production Drilling Fleet Overview

4.4 Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Exploration & Production Subsea Hardware Submarket Forecast 2014-2024

4.4.1 Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Exploration & Production Subsea Hardware Submarket Analysis

4.4.2 Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Exploration & Production Subsea Hardware Submarket Drivers and

Restraints

4.5 Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Exploration & Production Floating Production Systems Submarket Forecast 2014-

2024

4.5.1 Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Exploration & Production Floating Production Systems Submarket

Analysis

4.5.2 Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Exploration & Production Floating Production Systems Submarket

Drivers and Restraints

5. The Regional Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Exploration & Production

Markets 5.1 Regional Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Exploration & Production Markets Forecast 2014-2024

5.2 Regional Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Exploration & Production Markets Forecast 2014, 2019, 2024

5.3 Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Exploration & Production Market Barriers to Entry Analysis

5.4 South American Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Exploration &Production Market Forecast 2014-2024

5.4.1 South American Deepwater &Ultra Deepwater Submarkets Forecast 2014-2024

5.4.1.1 South American Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Seismic Forecast 2014-2024

5.4.1.2 South American Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Drilling Forecast 2014-2024

5.4.1.3 South American Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Subsea Hardware Forecast 2014-2024

5.4.1.4 South American Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater FPS Forecast 2014-2024

5.4.2 South American Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Exploration & Production Market Drivers &

Restraints

5.4.2.1 Will Brazil’s Vast Pre-Salt Reserves Provide Ample Growth Opportunities for South

America’s Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater E&P Market?

5.4.2.2 Other Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Opportunities in South America

5.4.2.3 Despite South America’s Opportunities, What Is Holding the Market Back?

5.4.3 What is the Outlook for South America?

5.5 West African Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Exploration & Production Market Forecast 2014-2024

5.5.1 West African Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Submarkets Forecast 2014-2024

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Contents 5.5.1.1 West Africa Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Seismic Forecast 2014-2024

5.5.1.2 West African Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Drilling Forecast 2014-202

5.5.1.3 West African Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Subsea Hardware Forecast 2014-2024

5.5.1.4 West African Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater FPS Forecast 2014-2024

5.5.2 West African Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Exploration & Production Market Drivers & Restraints

5.5.2.1 How Important Is Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Development to West Africa?

5.5.2.2 Will Project Security and Timescales Slow Growth In West Africa?

5.5.2.3 The Impact of Escalating Costs

5.5.3 What Is the Outlook for West Africa?

5.5.3.1 Major West African Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Exploration & Production Projects

5.5.3.2 Regional Snapshots

5.6 Gulf of Mexico Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Exploration & Production Market Forecast 2014-2024

5.6.1 Gulf of Mexico Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Submarkets Forecast 2014-2024

5.6.1.1 Gulf of Mexico Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Seismic Forecast 2014-2024

5.6.1.2 Gulf of Mexico Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Drilling Forecast 2014-2024

5.6.1.3 Gulf of Mexico Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Subsea Hardware Forecast 2014-2024

5.6.1.4 Gulf of Mexico Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater FPS Forecast 2014-2024

5.6.2 Gulf of Mexico Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Exploration & Production Market Drivers & Restraints

5.6.2.1 What Progress Can Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater E&P Make in the Gulf of Mexico

5.6.2.2 What Is Restraining the Gulf of Mexican Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Market?

5.6.3 Major Gulf of Mexico Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Exploration &Production Projects

5.6.4 The Outlook for the Gulf of Mexico

5.7 The European Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Exploration & Production Market Forecast 2014-2024

5.7.1 European Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Submarkets Forecast 2014-2024

5.7.1.1 European Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Seismic Forecast 2014-2024

5.7.1.2 European Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Drilling Forecast 2014-2024

5.7.1.3 European Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Subsea Hardware Forecast 2014-2024

5.7.1.4 European Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater FPS Forecast 2014-2024

5.7.2 Current Status of the European Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Exploration & Production Market

5.7.3 The European Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater E&P Market Drivers and Restraints

5.7.3.1 How Large is the Opportunity in Europe for Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Development?

5.7.3.2 Will Deepwater Projects Be Subject to Delay in Europe?

5.7.4 Major European Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Exploration & Production Projects

5.7.5 The Outlook for the European Market

5.8 Asia-Pacific Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Exploration & Production Market Forecast 2014-2024

5.8.1 Asia Pacific Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Submarkets Forecast 2014-2024

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Contents 5.8.1.1 Asia Pacific Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Seismic Forecast 2014-2024

5.8.1.2 Asia Pacific Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Drilling Forecast 2014-2024

5.8.1.3 Asia Pacific Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Subsea Hardware Forecast 2014-2024

5.8.1.4 Asia Pacific Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater FPS Forecast 2014-2024

5.8.2 Asia-Pacific Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Exploration & Production Market Drivers & Restraints

5.8.2.1 What Opportunities Exist in the Asia Pacific Region?

5.8.2.2 Will Territorial Disputes Impact Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Growth?

5.8.3 Major Asia-Pacific Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Exploration & Production Projects

5.8.4 The Outlook for Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater E&P in the Asia Pacific Region

5.9 The East African Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Exploration & Production Market Forecast 2014-2024

5.9.1 East African Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Submarkets Forecast 2014-2024

5.9.1.1 East African Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Seismic Forecast 2014-2024

5.9.1.2 East African Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Drilling Forecast 2014-2024

5.9.1.3 East African Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Subsea Hardware Forecast 2014-2024

5.9.1.4 East African Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater FPS Forecast 2014-2024

5.9.2 Is There a Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Market in East Africa?

5.9.3 Opportunities for Field Development in East Africa

5.9.4 East African Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater E&P Market Drivers and Restraints

5.9.4.1 The Prospects for LNG in East Africa

5.9.4.2 Other Considerations for Market Growth in East Africa

5.9.5 East African Market Outlook

5.10 Rest of the World Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Exploration & Production Market Forecast 2014-2024

5.10.1 Major Rest of the World Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Exploration & Production Projects

6. PEST Analysis of the Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Exploration &

Production Market 2014-2024

7. Expert Opinion 7.1 Saipem

7.1.1 Market Entry

7.1.2 Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Market Capital Expenditure - Way Forward

7.1.3 South China Sea Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Developments

7.1.4 Collaborative Projects in West Africa

7.1.5 Growth Opportunities

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Contents 7.2 Resources For the Future

7.2.1 US Energy Security Policy Prerogatives and the Gulf of Mexico

7.2.2 Offshore Exploration Governance and the Gulf of Mexico

7.2.3 Politics and Economics of Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Developments

7.2.4 Competitiveness of deepwater and ultra deepwater plays

7.3 GETECH

7.3.1 Gravity and Magnetic Data – Underused Tool

7.3.2 Complementing Seismic Survey

7.3.3 Challenges Facing Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Market

7.3.4 Future Plays of Industry Interest

8. Leading 21 Deepwater and Ultra Deepwater Companies 8.1 Leading 21 Deepwater and Ultra Deepwater Company Market Share Analysis 2014

8.2 Leading Marine Seismic Companies

8.2.1 CGG

8.2.1.1 Does CGG Remain the Seismic Market Leader?

8.2.1.2 What Has Been the Impact of the Acquisition of Fugro Assets on CGG?

8.2.1.3 CGG Veritas Regional Focus

8.2.1.4 Outlook for CGG Veritas

8.2.2 WesternGeco

8.2.2.1 WesternGeco Analysis

8.2.2.2 Regional Perspectives for WesternGeco

8.2.2.3 WesternGeco Outlook

8.2.2.4 WesternGeco High-End 3D Vessels Delivered & Pending Delivery 2012-2015

8.2.3 PGS (Petroleum Geo-Services)

8.2.3.1 PGS Analysis

8.2.3.2 PGS Regional Development

8.2.3.3 The Outlook for PGS

8.2.4 Seabird Exploration

8.2.4.1 Regional Developments for Seabird Exploration

8.2.4.2 The Outlook for Seabird Exploration

8.2.5 Polarcus

8.2.5.1 Polarcus Analysis

8.2.5.2 Future Outlook

8.3 Leading Drilling Companies

8.3.1 Transocean

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Contents 8.3.1.1 Transocean: Drilling Sector’s Biggest Player

8.3.1.2 Transocean Regional Focus

8.3.1.3 Transocean’s Outgoing and New Drilling Capacity

8.3.2 Diamond Offshore

8.3.2.1 Diamond Offshore: Expanding in Reliable Markets

8.3.2.2 Diamond Offshore Regional Focus

8.3.3 Ensco plc

8.3.3.1 Ensco Analysis

8.3.3.2 Ensco plc Regional Focus

8.3.3.3 Ensco plc M&A Activity

8.3.4 Noble Corporation

8.3.4.1 Noble Corporation and the Ultra Deepwater Market

8.3.5 Seadrill

8.3.5.1 Seadrill Analysis

8.3.5.2 Seadrill Outlook

8.4 Leading Subsea Companies

8.4.1 Saipem

8.4.1.1 Saipem Analysis

8.4.1.2 Saipem Regional Focus and Outlook

8.4.2 Technip

8.4.2.1 Technip: Showing Signs of Recovery

8.4.2.2 Technip Regional Focus

8.4.2.3 The Outlook for Technip

8.4.3 FMC Technologies Inc.

8.4.3.1 FMC’s Position in the Subsea Hardware Market

8.4.3.2 FMC Technologies Regional Focus

8.4.3.3 The Outlook for FMC Technologies

8.4.4 Aker Solutions

8.4.4.1 Aker Solutions Organisation and Services

8.4.4.2 Aker Solutions Regional Focus

8.4.4.3 The Outlook for Aker Solutions

8.4.5 Subsea 7 S.A.

8.4.5.1 Subsea 7 Analysis

8.4.5.2 Subsea 7 S.A Regional Focus and Strategy

8.4.5.3 The Outlook for Subsea 7

8.5 Leading FPS Companies

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Contents 8.5.1 Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. (Petrobras)

8.5.1.1 Petrobras FPSO Projects

8.5.1.2 Petrobras Analysis and Future Outlook

8.5.2 SBM Offshore N.V.

8.5.2.1 SBM Offshore Analysis

8.5.2.2 SBM Offshore Future Outlook

8.5.3 MODEC, Inc.

8.5.3.1 MODEC Analysis

8.5.4 Shell and Associates

8.5.4.1 Analysis of Shell and Associates in the FLNG Market

8.5.4.2 Future Outlook of Shell and Associates

8.5.4.3 Shell and Associates Projects

8.5.5 Petronas

8.5.5.1 Analysis of Petronas in the FLNG Market

8.5.5.2 Future Outlook of Petronas

8.5.5.3 Petronas LNG FPSO Projects

8.5.6 DSME and Associates

8.5.6.1 Analysis of DSME in the FLNG Market

8.5.6.2 DSME and Associates Future Outlook

8.5.6.3 DSME and Associates Projects

8.6 Other Leading Companies in the Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Exploration & Production Market

9. Conclusions & Recommendations 9.1 The Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater E&P Market Outlook

9.2 Key Findings

9.3 Recommendations

10. Glossary

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Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Exploration & Production (E&P) Market Forecast 2014-2024: Prospects for Top Companies with Seismic, Drilling, Subsea & FPS Technologies

With regards to subsea, technological challenges continue. The main concerns include the impact

of harsh environments on the equipment. This is the case with both the impacts from waves and

currents. The stresses placed on the equipment is emphasised especially when considering issues

of fatigue on sections of risers connected either to the surface vessel or the seabed flowlines.

Other challenges persist from moving further into deepwater, both the physical limit of tie-backs, to

the temperature and pressure differences exerted on the fluids within the system. Concerns over

failure of electrical components and umbilicals remain, as well as the impact of corrosion, erosion

and accidental damage.

5.7.4 Major European Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater Exploration &

Production Projects Tables 5.39 and 5.40 give an overview over the major ongoing and prospective deepwater & ultra

deepwater E&P projects in the European region.

Name Depth Operator Country Aasta Hansteen Deepwater Statoil Norway

Corrib Deepwater Shell Ireland

Ettrick Deepwater Nexen Petroleum UK

Goliat Deepwater ENI S.p.A Norway

Knarr Deepwater BG Group Norway

Laggan-Tormore Deepwater Total UK

Schiehallion Deepwater BP UK

The Greater Norne Area Deepwater Statoil Norway

Troll Area Deepwater Statoil Norway

Aquila Deepwater ENI S.p.A Italy

Project Depth Operator Country Albert Deepwater Lundin Petroleum Norway

Anne Marie Deepwater ENI S.p.A Faroe Islands Aphrodite Ultra Deepwater Noble Energy Cyprus

Asterix Deepwater Statoil Norway

Banquo Deepwater Valiant Petroleum UK

Beta Brent Deepwater Petro-Canada Norway

Table 5.39 Major European Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater E&P Projects Under Development (Name, Depth, Operator, Country)

Source: Visiongain 2014

Table 5.40 Major Prospective European Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater E&P Projects (Name, Depth, Operator, Country)

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5.8.1.4 Asia Pacific Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater FPS Forecast 2014-

2024

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Spending ($m) 579 2,443 2,690 2,123 2,145 2,179 1,663 1,514 1,721 311 516 1,228

Growth (%) 322.1 10.1 -21.1 1.0 1.6 -23.7 -8.9 13.6 -81.9 66.0 138.0

2019-24

CAGR (%) 2014-24 -6.6

CAGR (%) 2014-19 -7.4 -5.9

Large FPS projects such as the Jangkrik in Indonesia as well as the LNG FPSO set for Sabah

region of Malaysia add high levels of spending to the FPS market in Asia Pacific. This leads to

spending levels of $2,443m in 2014, rising to $2,690m in 2015. However, as projects are

completed, spending begins to tail off with a negative CAGR of -7.4% during the first half of the

forecast. Similar spending falls are evident during the second half of the forecast as a lull in project

start up ensues; however, spending remains relatively high at $1,228m in 2024.

-150.0

-100.0

-50.0

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

350.0

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

AGR%

Spen

ding

$m

Year

Spending AGR

Table 5.45 Asia Pacific Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater E&P FPS Market Forecast 2014-2024 ($m, AGR %, CAGR%, Cumulative)


Figure 5.40 Asia Pacific Deepwater & Ultra Deepwater E&P FPS Market Forecast 2014-2024 ($m, AGR%)


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7. Expert Opinion 7.1 Saipem Saipem is a subsidiary of Italy’s Eni and is a provider of engineering, procurement, project

management and construction in offshore and onshore projects, particularly oil and gas projects in

challenging areas and deepwater. The company is involved in onshore and offshore drilling, as

well as owning its own fleet of vessels and the capacity to fabricate products. Saipem operates in

many of the emerging markets globally, including West Africa, North Africa, FSU, Central Asia, the

Middle East and South-East Asia.

Visiongain interviewed Armando Favi, Vice President E&C Business Development Management at

Saipem, and Fabio Moroni, Business Development Analysis Manager at Saipem, in April 2014,

and would like to thank them for their valuable contribution to the report.

7.1.1 Market Entry Visiongain: Saipem is an established player in deepwater & ultra deepwater operations. Can you

tell us a bit about your company’s structure and current and future plans in the deepwater segment

of oil & gas E&P?

Armando Favi, Fabio Moroni: Saipem has a long tradition of frontier projects in increasingly deep

waters. We are organized through two offshore business units – Offshore and Floaters – covering

a full range of deepwater services, from field development SURF (Subsea, Umbilicals, Risers and

Flowlines) EPIC projects to large-diameter pipelaying and floaters EPIC contracts. Our fleet for

deepwater includes the FDS and FDS2, two vessels for field development in ultra-deep waters, the

S3000, specialized in heavy subsea construction works as well as in laying flexible flowlines and

umbilicals, and the new state-of-the art Castorone, with capabilities of laying trunklines in steep-S

lay configuration.

Together with our traditional areas of interest such as West Africa, especially Angola and Nigeria,

and the Mediterranean, we are strengthening our presence in Brazil, where we want to become a

permanent player. Here, our vessels are supported by an enhanced engineering organisation in

Rio de Janeiro and by the new Guarujá yard, primarily dedicated to the support of deepwater

projects. Leveraging these experiences, we are ready to provide full field development project

execution capabilities in the new deepwater regions, such as the South China Sea, where we have

already developed the first Chinese deep water field, and the East Africa including offshore

Mozambique.

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8.2.1 CGG

2013

Total company revenue $bn $3.76bn

Contract Backlog (2013) $1.35bn

Submarket Seismic

Share of All Seismic Vessels 17%

Market Rank 1st

Headquarters Paris, France

Ticker NYSE:CGV

Website http://www.cggveritas.com

Company / Country Date Type

CGGVeritas / North Sea Feb-13 3D Multi-Client Data Library

CGGVeritas / Norway Apr-13 3D Multi-Client Data Library

Anadarko, Ecopetrol / Colombia Jun-14 3D Seismic Contract

Petronas / Malaysia - 3D Seismic Contract

Shell / Australia Jul-13

CGGVeritas / Norway, Barents Sea - Multi-client Data Library

CGGVeritas and Spectrum / Brazil - 3D Multi-Client Data Library

CGGVeritas / Mexico 2013 Seismic Contract

CGGVeritas / Angola 2012-2017 Seismic Contract

8.2.1.1 Does CGG Remain the Seismic Market Leader? CGG Veritas is the leading company in the seismic exploration submarket and despite being

created as a company in 2007, through the merger of Compagnie Générale de Géophysique

(CGG) and Veritas, can trace its roots in the industry back to the early 1930s. Over the years the

company has become a leader in technological development in the seismic exploration sector

allowing oil companies to explore previously unknown reserves and optimising their production

output by obtaining ever better information about the world’s hydrocarbon reservoirs. The company

offers an array of seismic exploration services, from 2D to 4D and wide azimuth (WAZ) and

Table 8.2 CGG Veritas Overview (Total Revenue 2013, Contract Backlog, Submarket, Share of All Seismic Vessels, Market Rank, HQ, Ticker, Website)


Table 8.3 CCG Veritas Recent & Upcoming Contracts (Company / Country, Date, Type)
