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Getting it right: effective private engagement in rail & metro systems Kuwait Rail & Metro Conference 2012 Dr. Ulrich Koegler, Vice President at Booz & Company Booz & Company Kuwait City, April 17 th , 2012 This document is confidential and is intended solely for the use and information of the client to whom it is addressed.

Dr. ulrich koegler effective psp in metro and rail projects vfff

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Page 1: Dr. ulrich koegler   effective psp in metro and rail projects vfff

Getting it right: effective private engagement in rail & metro systems

Kuwait Rail & Metro Conference 2012

Dr. Ulrich Koegler, Vice President at Booz & Company

Booz & Company Kuwait City, April 17th, 2012

This document is confidential and is intended solely for

the use and information of the client to whom it is addressed.

Page 2: Dr. ulrich koegler   effective psp in metro and rail projects vfff

120417 Booz - Kuwait Metro & Rail Conference 2012 - Effective PSP in Metro and Rail projects vfff.pptx Booz & Company Prepared for Kuwait Metro & Rail Conference 2012

Regional rail development and key questions

Core components of effective private sector engagement

April 17th, 2012 1

Page 3: Dr. ulrich koegler   effective psp in metro and rail projects vfff

120417 Booz - Kuwait Metro & Rail Conference 2012 - Effective PSP in Metro and Rail projects vfff.pptx Booz & Company Prepared for Kuwait Metro & Rail Conference 2012

GCC region is the midst of a massive rail and metro development drive

2 April 17th, 2012

Planned Rail Networks in GCC

Source: Booz & Company analysis

v

Al

Baithaa

Al Hadetha Qurayyat

Station

Al Jalamid

Mine /

Hazm

Al Jouf

Ha’il

Zubariya

Al

Qassim

Nairiyah

Workshop Al Majma’a

Station

Sudair

Riyadh

Al

Madina

Station

King Abdullah

Economic City

Makkah

Jeddah

Damma

m

Jubail

Ras Az Zawr

Gizan

Khamis

Mesheet

Al Taaf

Yanbu

Rabigh

Hardh

Hafouf

Yemen

Oman

Saudi Arabia

Kuwait

Bahrain

Qatar

United Arab

Emirates

Al Ain/Oman

border Ghweifat

(KSA border)

Fujairah

Khor Fakkan Sharjah

Ras Al Khaimah

Ras Laffan

Ruwais

Port Khalifa

Musaffah

Shah

Sohar

Duqm

Boubyan Port Umm Qasr

Salemy Kuwait City Station to Airport

Qasr

Port Messieed Dukhan

Muscat

Comments

The GCC in general, Kuwait

included, is in the midst of a massive

rail development drive

With little prior experience in

railways, GCC governments faced

significant challenges in aiming to:

– Deliver various urban and national

rail projects

– Meet their policy goals of economic

diversification

– Sustainably delivering quality

service levels that attract users

– Determining the right approach

private sector engagement is a key

enabler.

Page 4: Dr. ulrich koegler   effective psp in metro and rail projects vfff

120417 Booz - Kuwait Metro & Rail Conference 2012 - Effective PSP in Metro and Rail projects vfff.pptx Booz & Company Prepared for Kuwait Metro & Rail Conference 2012

So far, most are being directly procured through government-owned entities

3

Selected Rail Project Overview

Project Description Type Status Envisaged or Likely

Procurement Approach

Operation

Date

Kuwait National Rail

Road

Rail system connecting Boubyan port to

Kuwait city and to the border with KSA Long-haul

rail Feasibility PPP 2018

North – South Rail

(SAR – state owned)

Phosphate line from Jalamid to Ras El Kheir

with extension to Jubail/DMM and to Riyadh Long-haul

rail operational

Direct procurement through

SAR (state-owned Company) 2011

Haramain High

Speed Line

High Speed Line of 440 Km, linking Mecca,

Madinah, Rabigh (KAEC), and Jeddah HSR Under

construction

Direct procurement through

SRO (state-owned) 2014

Al Mashaer Al

Moqadassa (MMMP)

Rail system in Makkah to ease transport of

Makkah residents and Pilgrims during Haj

season

Light Rail Completed/Op

erational

Direct Procurement

3 year O&M contract

Awarded to Serco

2011

Princess Noura

University

A 11.5 km automatic light rail at Princess

Noura Bint Abdulrahman women’s university Monorail Completed Direct Procurement 2013

Makkah MRT Construction of four new lines to provide

passenger transport through Makkah Metro Feasibility/

Design Direct Procurement 20151)

Jeddah Monorail Three metro lines connecting Jeddah Airport

and different locations within the city Monorail Tender Direct Procurement 20161)

Riyadh Light Rail

Two high speed light rail lines (North-South

and East-West) providing passenger

transport through Riyadh Light rail Delayed PPP 2018

April, 2012

EXAMPLES

Page 5: Dr. ulrich koegler   effective psp in metro and rail projects vfff

120417 Booz - Kuwait Metro & Rail Conference 2012 - Effective PSP in Metro and Rail projects vfff.pptx Booz & Company Prepared for Kuwait Metro & Rail Conference 2012

Identifying where and how private sector participation is most beneficial comes down to a few key questions

Government objectives: What are the government broad policy goals (attracting know-how,

assuring service delivery, safeguard / asset , funding, developing capital markets) ?

Project goals: What are the government specific project objectives in terms of timeline, funding/

fares, network connections, and primary target users? How important is safeguarding long-term

reliability of the asset ?

Institutional enablers: What institutional framework and land transport regulations are required

to be developed? And what institutional capabilities and entities are needed to manage and

oversee project delivery?

Engagement model development and implementation: How could the right engagement model

be developed and tested in the market? How available is project finance for metro and rail

projects?

4 April 17th, 2012

Page 6: Dr. ulrich koegler   effective psp in metro and rail projects vfff

120417 Booz - Kuwait Metro & Rail Conference 2012 - Effective PSP in Metro and Rail projects vfff.pptx Booz & Company Prepared for Kuwait Metro & Rail Conference 2012

Regional rail development and key questions

Core components of effective private sector engagement

April 17th, 2012 5

Page 7: Dr. ulrich koegler   effective psp in metro and rail projects vfff

120417 Booz - Kuwait Metro & Rail Conference 2012 - Effective PSP in Metro and Rail projects vfff.pptx Booz & Company Prepared for Kuwait Metro & Rail Conference 2012

Three core components account for success

6 April 17th, 2012

6

Core Components of Effective Private Sector Engagement

Benefits &

Funding

Strategies

Private

Engagement

Enablers

Government

Goals and Role

Core Financing

Components

1

2 3

Government Role

Clear strategy for projects selection and development

Strong institutional framework and capabilities to

manage private participation and regulate the sector

Transparent governance and procurement process

Funding Strategy

Understanding of socioeconomic benefits vs. costs

Accurate knowledge of funding requirements and

funding sourced based on balanced risk allocation

Private Engagement Enablers

Definition of objectives behind adopting a PPP scheme

Identification of the right PPP enablers that attract

investors in a given market / economy

Enactment of planning and operational standards that

ensure successful implementation of the scheme

Source: Booz & Company analysis

Page 8: Dr. ulrich koegler   effective psp in metro and rail projects vfff

120417 Booz - Kuwait Metro & Rail Conference 2012 - Effective PSP in Metro and Rail projects vfff.pptx Booz & Company Prepared for Kuwait Metro & Rail Conference 2012

The government role spans policy, regulation, procurement, and enforcement

7 April 17th, 2012

Government Contribution Roles

Government Roles

Policy Setting & Planning

Integrated Transport

Planning

Rail sector planning

Budgeting and Funding

Standards Development

Regulation

Fares Definition and

Economic Regulation

Demand Management

Performance Monitoring

Procurement

Tendering and Licensing

Infrastructure Ownership

and Management

Enforcement

Standards Enforcement

Regulations Enforcement

(economic, safety)

1 Government Role

Page 9: Dr. ulrich koegler   effective psp in metro and rail projects vfff

120417 Booz - Kuwait Metro & Rail Conference 2012 - Effective PSP in Metro and Rail projects vfff.pptx Booz & Company Prepared for Kuwait Metro & Rail Conference 2012

Rail tends to be actively promoted by government policies as an efficient and alternative mode of transportation

8 April 17th, 2012

Switzerland – Key Policy Pillars of Supporting Rail Development

Source: Various EU Transport Authorities, Swiss Department of Transport and Federal Roads Office websites, Booz & Company analysis

Vision

to Shift transportation From Road to Rail

Rail Expansion and Maximization

of Economic Benefit

Liberalization and

Private Sector Participation

Internalization of External Costs

of Road Freight Transport

Funding Programs:

Sidings, Terminals and Combined Transport

I II III

Interconnect rail network with

major industrial and logistics

hubs

Ensure speed, convenience and

financial efficiency of both

passenger and freight rail

Allocate fair share of

infrastructure, environmental and

safety related costs to road

freight transport

Reform sector and ensure

competition, product innovation

and service improvement

Optimize cost recovery

1 Government Role

ILLUSTRATIVE

Page 10: Dr. ulrich koegler   effective psp in metro and rail projects vfff

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A comprehensive regulatory framework, covering technical, safety, and economic matters is essential for sector development

April 17th, 2012 9

Land Use / Right of Way and Urban Development Regulations

Railway Sector Regulatory Framework

Source: Booz & Company analysis

1 Government Role

Railway

Vision

Access fees and policies

Infrastructure design and construction standards

Customer rights and protection

Market and competition regulations

Technical standards for rolling stock

Technical standards for interoperability

Technical standards for operation

Approval, Inspection & Audits

Infrastructure Protection

Environment and Sustainability

Fire Protection

Security, Emergency and Disaster Readiness

Accident & Incident Investigations

Commercial

Regulations

Health,

Safety and

Environmental

Regulations

System Certification Fares and tickets

Sector Policies, Institutional

Framework and Governance Model

Technical

Regulations

and Standards

Page 11: Dr. ulrich koegler   effective psp in metro and rail projects vfff

120417 Booz - Kuwait Metro & Rail Conference 2012 - Effective PSP in Metro and Rail projects vfff.pptx Booz & Company Prepared for Kuwait Metro & Rail Conference 2012

Railway Sector

Governance

Challenges

Typically Unclear Roles of the

Key Sector Entities

Limited Capabilities

and Expertise

Lack of Existing

Policies, Standards

and Regulations

Emerging

Role of the GCC

Rail Authority

Integration and

Interoperability

with GCC

Railway Systems

Short Time Frame

Sector governance, a pivotal enabler, remains a challenge for GCC to effectively develop

Challenges for Railway Sector Governance Set-Up in GCC Countries

Source: Booz & Company analysis

CONCEPTUAL

April 17th, 2012 10

1 Government Role

Page 12: Dr. ulrich koegler   effective psp in metro and rail projects vfff

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PT supply

PT coverage and capacity

Reach residential areas, increase connectivity of suburbs

Optimize network layout and density according to demand

Service quality Set and enforce quality standards

Encourage competition between service providers

Modal integration

Fare integration: integrated tickets and multi-mode smartcards Network: feeder bus/rail services to main corridors Physical: interchanges / park and ride facilities Institutional: same entity responsible for all modes

()

PT demand

Affordable fares Public transport fares are set at affordable rates Same entity sets PT fares vs. car usage fees and toll fees

Access to PT Pedestrian and cycling access to public transport Adequate waiting areas (e.g. bus/taxi shelters)

Supporting policies remain largely underdeveloped

11 April 17th, 2012

Example of Incentives to Increase Use of Metro, Light Rail and Public Transport – Benchmarks Singapore Hong Kong London Berlin

Note: London has some integration, e.g. ticketing and fare collection, but is less developed on the other integration dimensions

Road Demand

Limit number of cars

Heavily tax car acquisition & ownership

Limit number of additional cars per year

Limit car usage

Impose congestion charge

Parking spaces: limit number and increase costs

Heavily tax petrol

Usage Efficiency

Provide on-line and on-road information about congestion through intelligent traffic systems

Road Supply

Capacity New roads (inc. tunnels or underground roads)

Efficiency Build reversible “tidal flow” roads

Success Critical Factors/Levers

EXAMPLE

1 Government Role

Page 13: Dr. ulrich koegler   effective psp in metro and rail projects vfff

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A funding strategy should be driven by clear socioeconomic priorities and optimization of government funding

12 April 17th, 2012

Government

Invest/

Procure-

ment

Strategy

Funding

Sourcing

Funding Strategy Building Blocks

Alignment

Strategic

Objectives

& Policies

Government

Funding

Policy

Financial

Appraisal

Degree of

Public-Private

Sectors

Cooperation

Prioritization

and Work

Plans

Governmental

Risk

Allocation

Policies

Funding

Strategy

2 Funding Strategy

Page 14: Dr. ulrich koegler   effective psp in metro and rail projects vfff

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Rail investments have significant potential socioeconomic benefits in GCC, where people and freight mobility needs are growing fast

13 April 17th, 2012

Potential Socio-economic Benefits for GCC – Overview

Benefit Impact

Benefits from

Modal Shift

Accidents Costs Savings

Enhance road safety through a safer mode of transport for passenger and freight traffics

which will reduce collisions and associated property damage, insurance and medical

costs and personal and production losses

Environmental Cost Savings Reduce greenhouse gas emissions, air pollution and transport noise through a more eco-

friendly mode of transport

Fuel Efficiency Savings Reduce fuel consumption through a more fuel efficient mode of transport for passenger

and freight traffics

Travel Time Savings Allow time savings for the new rail passengers due to improved services and for routes

travelers due to fewer vehicles on the road

Reliability Improvements Enhance reliability for rail passengers and especially for rail freight traffic due to

scheduled and precise time estimation for rail trips

Benefits from

Economic

Stimulation

Intangible Benefits Other qualitative benefits arise from implementing the rail project as a PPP e.g. quality of

service, institutional capacity, promotion of competitive markets

Positive Impact of Rail

Market on Economy

Further strengthen country economy through direct and indirect stimulation of economic

activity

Land Use Improvements Allow further developments in areas traversed by rail

End-user Satisfaction If users expectations are being met

Economic Stimulation of

Industrial Activity

Enhance economic productivity of planned industrial and residential/urban expansions by

providing them with a more efficient, cost-effective and reliable mean of doing business

Source: Booz & Company analysis

2 Funding Strategy

Page 15: Dr. ulrich koegler   effective psp in metro and rail projects vfff

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Yet, they typically do not recover costs, hence, the need for sustainable funding

14 April 17th, 2012

157.0%

126.0%

81.0%

67.3%

57.0%

51.5%

47.0%

72.5%

48.5%

42.5%

53.0%

30.5%

54.0%

Hong Kong

Singapore

London

New York

Washington

Madrid

Cairo

Budapest

Vienna

Berlin

Copenhagen

Marseilles

Helsinki

Prague Average 51.4 %

> 4 mn.

Population

2-4 mn.

< 2 mn.

Average 52.3%

Average 83.3%

Me

ga C

itie

s

INDICATIVE

Source: Booz & Company analysis

Typically,

Urban Rail and

Public Transport

requires sustain-

able funding

schemes

Comparative Cost Recovery Ratios of International Urban Mass Transit Providers

2 Funding Strategy

Page 16: Dr. ulrich koegler   effective psp in metro and rail projects vfff

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A wide range of funding possibilities can explored for railway projects …

15 April 17th, 2012

Funding Sources

Internal – Tax revenues (land and non-based) – User charges – Developer contributions

– Central government development loans and grants

– Municipal property assets – Value Capture

External – Venture Capital & Infrastructure Funds – Non-Recourse or Project finance – Corporate Finance – Export Credit Finance

– Bond Finance

– Guarantees or Credit Enhancement Programs – Overdraft facilities and short-term loans from

banks and building societies

Operating Models

Public utilities

Community

State Corporation

Management Contract

Lease

PPPs

– BOT

– BOO

– BOOT

– DBFO

– Etc.

Operating Franchise

Private companies

Infrastructure Trusts

Overview of finance methods and examples

2 Funding Strategy

Page 17: Dr. ulrich koegler   effective psp in metro and rail projects vfff

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… while Governments would have to subsidize remaining requirements through up to three levers

16 April 17th, 2012

Government Invest/Subsidies

Subsidy Type Subsidy Model Description Assessment

2 Funding Strategy

Opex

Subsidies

Fixed Simple

Fixed Performance

Based

Variable Simple

Variable

Performance Based

Fixed subsidy independent of performance

or ridership

Performance based subsidy independent of

ridership

Variable subsidy independent of

performance but dependent on ridership

Variable subsidy dependent on both the

performance as well as ridership

Capex

Subsidies In-Kind

Monetary Monetary subsidies for investing in Capex

Government contributes certain assets

Pros:

Easy, one-off monitoring

Cons:

Require large one-off investment

Pros:

Performance dependent

Subsidies provided in smaller

regular installments

Cons:

Require constant monitoring

Special

Subsidies Indirect – Customers

Indirect – Investor Indirect subsidies consisting of tax relief,

right of way, land development, etc.

Targeted directly at passengers based on

need and social status

Pros:

Target only the most needy

Cons:

Difficult to implement

ILLUSTRATIVE

Page 18: Dr. ulrich koegler   effective psp in metro and rail projects vfff

120417 Booz - Kuwait Metro & Rail Conference 2012 - Effective PSP in Metro and Rail projects vfff.pptx Booz & Company Prepared for Kuwait Metro & Rail Conference 2012

Hence, private sector engagement schemes (such as PPPs) and cost recovery policies need to be well synchronized

17 April 17th, 2012

Involvement of Private

Sector

PSP Scheme

Low

High

Definition

Combines two, usually separate services into a single

contract

Owners execute a single fixed- fee contract for both

architectural/engineering services and construction

BOT/BTO

DBFO

DBOM

DB

Manage-

ment

Contract

BOO

Integrated partnership that combines the design and

construction responsibilities of design-build procurements

with operations and maintenance

The responsibilities for designing, building, financing and

operating are bundled together and transferred to private

sector partners

Single contractor has the responsibility for designing and

constructing a facility, as well of operating and maintaining it

for specified period prior to handing it over to client

The process of managing the facility from the beginning of

the contract till the end of the contract date

Private company is granted the right to develop, finance,

design, build, own, operate, and maintain transportation

project

Ancillary Services

Retail

Property development

Advertising

Develop-ment Gains

Neighboring land-related fees to capture the developers’ gains

Gov’t Grants &

Incentives

Government provides capital

grants and subsidies

Government provides tax

incentives and exemptions

Fares Ticket revenue

Access charges

Cost Recovery Approaches

Service Availability Payments

Granting agency pays for the availability of the infrastructure services regardless the volume

Payment usually linked to KPis

2 Funding Strategy

ILLUSTRATIVE FOR ROADS

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The starting point is capturing government objectives from engaging the private sector

18 April 17th, 2012

Political

Decrease government direct involvement in provision

of infrastructure sector services

Redefine role of government to become a regulator of

transport sector

Potential Government Objectives & Benefits

Ord

er

of

Pri

ori

ty

+

-

Key O

bje

cti

ve

s

Objectives Benefits

Fiscal

Share financial risk of project development with private sector thus redirecting public funds towards more urgently needed sectors

Avoid cost over-runs by adopting a life cycle approach to project costing

Economic

Enhance economic growth and deepen financial

markets by attracting domestic savings and

international investment

Improve project efficiency, cost, speed of delivery and

accessibility of services

Social Raise standards of living by providing infrastructure

services in a timely manner within an environmentally

sustainable framework

Technological

Provide technological benefits in terms of transfer of

know how, service update and innovation delivered by greater private sector participation

Free public funds for other uses Reduce risk for the public sector Reduce project life cycle costs

Accelerate speed of delivery Increase service coverage and improve quality Increase time and cost reliability Increase efficiency in project execution Attract international and domestic capital

Enable technology transfer and exchange Train resources on advanced technology in road

operations / maintenance Promote innovation

Mitigate repercussions of privatization Redefine the role of the government Enforce social stability Increase transparency of government processes

Meet people’s needs Raise living standards Promote environmental sustainability Balance social and commercial priorities

1

2

5

3

4

3 PPP Enablers

ILLUSTRATIVE

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This will ultimately help determine the most effective model for private sector participation

19 April 17th, 2012

Procurement Model Options Description

Potential PPP options

Asset

Operate

and

Maintain

Go

ve

rnm

en

t R

ole

P

riva

te S

ecto

r R

ole

Options Privatization

High Private

Sector Risk

High Public

Sector Risk

Build Own and

Operate

Build Operate and Transfer

Design and Build

O&M

Maintain

(Might provide

equity at times)

Design, Build Operate, and

Finance

Finance

Asset

Revenues/

Benefits

Asset

Delivery

Government

Benefit

Government

Cost

Operate

Govt Finance

Costs Funded

Owned

Tolling Rights

Govt Financial Support

Costs Funded

Owned

Tolling Rights

Owned

Tolling Rights

Owned

Tolling Rights

Costs Funded Costs Funded

Govt Financial Support

Govt Financial Support

Govt Financial Support

Construct

Design

Construct

Design

Construct

Design

Construct

Design

Finance Finance Finance Finance

Construct

Design

Operate Operate Operate Operate

Maintain Maintain Maintain Maintain

Finance Finance

Own Own

Collect Revenue

Collect Revenue

Collect Revenue

Retain Revenue

Retain Revenue

Source: Booz & Company analysis

3 PPP Enablers

Page 21: Dr. ulrich koegler   effective psp in metro and rail projects vfff

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Results reveal a significant improvement in time and cost when adopting PPP schemes

20 April 17th, 2012

PPP

11.6%

Traditional

Procurement

35.3%

Cost Over-Run

1) Traditional procurement figures relate to previous public sector experience besides PPP projects in focus

Source: ACG/University of Melbourne, Australia; National Audit Office, PFI: Construction Performance, 2003 ,UK

Time Over-Run

(% of Cost) (% of Time)

(% of Projects) (% of Projects)

54 Projects

(21 PPP’s)

37 Projects1)

(37 PPP’s)

ILLUSTRATIVE

Performance of PPP’s vs. Traditional Procurements

PPP

13.2%

Traditional

Procurement

25.6%

PPP

22.0%

Traditional

Procurement

73.0%

24.0%

70.0%

PPP Traditional

Procurement

3 PPP Enablers

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However, not every PPP has become a success – Failure cases exist

21 April 17th, 2012

Weaknesses Weaknesses

Partial privatization of London

tube (Infrastructure maintenance)

Investment volume of £15,3bn

Selection of PPP experienced

consortium

Expected ROI 15-20%,

cost savings of £2-4bn

Mainland railway (108 km)

linking the Channel Tunnel

with London

Investment volume of £2,2 bn

Operated by London

Continental Railways (LCR)

Major delays caused by judicial

conflicts, complex bidding and

approval process

Financial problems of

consortium partners finally led to

bankruptcy of Metronet

Responsibilities were trans-

ferred back to City of London

Financial risk transferred

completely to private sector

Low public infrastructure

service charge and too

optimistic passenger

forecasts

As a result LCR sold back

operating license to

Network Rail

Metronet

(2003)

Channel Tunnel

Rail Link

(2007)

Worst Case PPP-Examples

Weaknesses

Revenue risk was transferred

completely to private sector

Due to too optimistic passenger

demand forecasts, revenue

targets were not achieved

An airport rail link connecting

Stockholm City with Arlanda

Airport

Operated by A-Train under a 30

year concession

Arlanda Express

(1999)

Weaknesses

BOT and Design-Construct-

Operate contracts with 60-year

lease / concession for STAR

and PUTRA Malaysian Light

Rail Transits respectively

Investment volume lower than

the budgeted RM 3.5Bn

Lack of transparency:

Contracts not bid for / unclear

cost of systems to the public

Forecast of revenues too

optimistic

Lack of exit strategy, the

government thus having to bail-

out and eventually takeover the

LRT systems

STAR and PUTRA

(1994)

3 PPP Enablers

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A crucial element for successful PPP’s is to understand investors’ perspectives

22 April 17th, 2012

Determine firm appetite for project different elements and its envisaged role

Get firm’s comments about different contractual structure components e.g. package size, phasing, contract term

duration, risk allocation, etc.

Contractual

Structure

Determine firm familiarity/experience with project technical specifications

Get firm’s comments on project technical specifications e.g. contract packages size, potential challenges, etc. Technical

Determine firm appetite to invest its own capital on the project

Get firm’s comments about several financing considerations e.g. raising third party equity, raising of project debt,

proportion of Kuwaiti shares, currency risk approach, Islamic Finance, Export Credit, etc.

Financing

Get firm’s views on the procurement process and timeline and any other relevant issues, comments or

requirements in relation to the project

Procurement

Process & Other

issues

Get an overview of the firm’s appetite for rail projects (greenfield in the GCC)

Get details on the firm approach and experience in:

– Middle East market

– PPP transaction

General

Appetite

1

2

3

4

5

Market Testing Dimensions

Source: Booz & Company analysis

3 PPP Enablers

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PPP transaction success may currently require some government help to address global crisis fallout, and stimulate capital markets

23 April 17th, 2012

Current Situation Government Potential Responses

Weakened global appetite for infrastructure

long-term finance, given liquidity crisis and

regulatory change

Expanded role of local banks, implying:

– Shorter-term financing (can cover construction)

– Refinancing risks exist, complicated by a

shortage of infrastructure-focused investors

– Potential market congestion with raft of PPP

projects scheduled in coming years in Kuwait

Other forms of transport infrastructure

financing remain largely unproven, for

example:

– Islamic finance

– Projects bonds

Mismatch between government PPP ambitions

and regional investor mix

Tactical / Short-term

Reduce quantum of market-raised finance

– Increase competition amongst financing sources

to influence pricing

– Utilize government finance to lower PPP cost of

capital and availability fee

Reduce private capital risk

– Undertake part or all of its ultimate repayment,

but distinguish between senior and mezzanine

equity

Reduce tenor of capital required

– Employ shorter term private sector capital which

could be more plentiful and cheaper

Strategic / Long-term

Promote development of infrastructure funds,

equity, and debt markets

Encourage export credit in equipment

purchases and infrastructure development

Source: Booz & Company analysis

3 PPP Enablers

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120417 Booz - Kuwait Metro & Rail Conference 2012 - Effective PSP in Metro and Rail projects vfff.pptx Booz & Company Prepared for Kuwait Metro & Rail Conference 2012

A robust evaluation methodology for procurement process is key to conclude a PPP transaction

24 April 17th, 2012

Rail PPP Procurement – Key Evaluation Principles

Provide clarity with respect to the methodology, process and results, with all parties having access to the same

data Transparency

Create a “level playing field” by not advantaging/disadvantaging any party over another Neutrality

Preserve utmost confidentiality of all evaluation materials, discussions and results Confidentiality

Provide an audit trail to allow relevant parties with the necessary access rights to revisit the basis of decisions Auditability

Provide consistency of approach across projects in the same sector being procured by the same

government/procuring authority Consistency

Allow for “apples-to-apples” comparison of applicants/bids by clearly defining the type and form of data to be

provided by applicants/bidders as part of their RFQ application/bid submissions Comparability

Principle Description

3 PPP Enablers

NON-EXHAUSTIVE

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120417 Booz - Kuwait Metro & Rail Conference 2012 - Effective PSP in Metro and Rail projects vfff.pptx Booz & Company Prepared for Kuwait Metro & Rail Conference 2012

Ultimately, PPP is about ensuring long-term service performance, hence need for monitoring against KPIs

25 April 17th, 2012

Category KPI Frequency Target Actual Score

Service Availability

Punctuality – On time availability of vehicles M 95%

Fleet Failure – Number of failures per coach.km M OEM Guidelines

Fleet Availability M 85%

On board equipment reliability S 98%

Service Quality

Coaches cleanliness M TBD

Clarity of on board information signage and systems M TBD

Average time to repair defects S Less than 24 hours

Average time to respond to emergency incidents S Less than 1 hour

Customer Service

Nr of complaints resolved within 1 hour as % total number of

complaints

M More than 95%

No of complaints as % of total passengers M Less than 5%

No of resolved complaints as % of total complaints M More than 90%

Sustainability Excess energy consumption per pax.km S TBD

Safety and Security Number of safety defects per year S Less than 10

Number of accidents per year S None

NON EXHAUSTIVE

Above 100% of Target 90% – 100% of Target Less than 90% of Target M = Monthly ; S = Semi-Annually

Sample Scorecard for Operations Performance Indicators of Public transport

3 PPP Enablers

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120417 Booz - Kuwait Metro & Rail Conference 2012 - Effective PSP in Metro and Rail projects vfff.pptx Booz & Company Prepared for Kuwait Metro & Rail Conference 2012

Overall, successful PPP schemes require a collaborative approach between the private and public sectors

26 April 17th, 2012

Demand Side – Public Sector Supply Side – Private Sector

Create the appropriate legal and regulatory

framework to encourage international private

investments (e.g. PPP, concession law)

Prioritize the projects according to long term

strategy and structure them in order to allow for

easier debt and equity financing

Adopt a value for money approach to define the

risk allocation and to select the PPP scheme

Support the development of local institutional

investors (e.g. infrastructure funds) with medium to

long term investment perspectives

Further market targeted infrastructure projects

in order to attract world-class investors and

developers

1

2

3

4

5

Local developers and operators should partner

with international infrastructure operators to

– bid for PPP projects in the region

– acquire best practices in managing and

developing infrastructures

– optimize the life cycle cost, and quality of the

service delivered

Institutional investors should start to

– Use other forms of financing which may involve

tapping into capital markets

– Plan to be engaged for a longer term

(e.g. 15+ years)

Banks should accept to step in for short term

financing (provided that they receive the comfort of

government and sponsor guarantees) in order to

kick-start infrastructure projects

1

2

3

Source: Booz & Company analysis

Understand Customers!