Economic indicators october

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Economic Indicators

Last update 17.10.2014

| Economic Indicators | 2

Economic Outlook Monthly Overview – October 2014

Europe:

• Consensus October GDP forecast for WE came down again by 0,1%point to 1,3% for 2014 and

to 1,5% for 2015.

• The EU industrial confidence and the consumer confidence both continued to fall in September.

• The IFO Business Climate index for Germany again fell in September. The German economy is

no longer running smoothly.

• Concerns over industry and deflation – and, therefore, the possibility of recession – mark this

month’s outlook. The ECB plans to buy private sector assets in order to stipulate lending, but

more action is needed, if prices continue to fall.

US:

• Consensus October GDP forecast for the US improved slightly to 2,2% for 2014 and remained on

3,1% for 2015.

• While Q2 GDP was upgraded again to now +4,6% q-o-q from previous releases and personal

consumption remained on an acceptable 2,5% pace, outlook over 2014 remains uncertain,

especially as the US brace for the normalization of monetary policy.

Japan:

• The October GDP growth forecast for Japan came down from 1,2% to 1,1% for 2014 and from

1,3% to 1,2% for 2015.

• Japan is still working through the impact of April’s consumption tax hike, which impacted

sharply on Q2 GDP. Activity collapsed by a sharper than expected annualized 7,1%. Since

then, there have been hopes that the economy would get back on track. However, Q3 has been

mixed at best and GDP forecasts slipped again.

3 | Economic Indicators |

Eurostat Data


Economic Indicators – GDP EU 28

Source: Eurostat Sept 14

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

08

Q1

09

Q1

10

Q1

11

Q1

12

Q1

13

Q1

14

Q1

%

GDP for the EU 28 countries at constant prices quarter vs. same quarter of last year


Economic Indicators – GDP EU 28


-2,5

-2

-1,5

-1

-0,5

0

0,5

1

08

Q1

09

Q1

10

Q1

11

Q1

12

Q1

13

Q1

14

Q1

%

GDP for the EU 28 countries at constant prices quarter on quarter


Economic Indicators –EU 28 Consumer Price Index

Source: Eurostat Oct 14

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

4,5

08

/1

09

/1

10

/1

11

/1

12

/1

13

/1

14

/1

15

/1

0,4

%

The harmonized index of consumer prices is the result of the collaboration

between Eurostat and National Statistical Institutes of the Member States.


Economic Indicators – ECB interest rate

Source: ECB, FED, Eurostat Oct 14

Sep; 0,3

Oct ; 0,05Oct ; 0,25

-0,5

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

4,5

Jan

08

Ju

ly 0

8

Jan

09

Ju

l.09

Jan

10

Ju

l.10

Jan

11

Ju

ly 1

1

Jan

12

Ju

l.12

Jan

13

Ju

l.13

Jan

14

Ju

l.14

Jan

15

%

ECB short-term rate

Eurozone inflation

FED rate


Economic Indicators –EU 28 Unemployment Rate


10,1

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

Ja

n 1

5

%

Unemployment rate for EU 28 countries


Economic Indicators – Industrial Confidence Ind EU


-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

Jan

15

Industrial confidence within EU 28 decreased again in September, continuing the

downwards trend of the previous months.

The Industrial Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the

questions on production expectations, order books and stocks.


Economic Indicators – Consumer Confidence Ind EU


Consumer Confidence within EU 28 continued to clearly erode in September

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

Ja

n 0

8

Ja

n 0

9

Ja

n 1

0

Ja

n 1

1

Ja

n 1

2

Ja

n 1

3

Ja

n 1

4

Ja

n 1

5

The Consumer Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the questions

on the financial situation of households and general economic situation (past and future)

together with that on the advisability of making major purchases.


Economic Indicators – Capacity Utilization

in Manufacturing Industry in % - EU 27


60

65

70

75

80

85

04

Q1

05

Q1

06

Q1

07

Q1

08

Q1

09

Q1

10

Q1

11

Q1

12

Q1

13

Q1

14

Q1

80,5

%

The capacity utilization in manufacturing industry gives the level of capacity utilization

in percent, as assessed by managers in manufacturing industry.


Ifo Data


Economic Indicators – IFO World Economic Climate

Source: IFO Sept 14

The Ifo World Economic climate brightened slightly in Q3 2014. World economic

activity remains on the rise.

This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.


Economic Indicators – IFO European Economic Climate

Source: IFO Sept 14

The economic climate in Europe slightly fell in Q3 2014, also impacted by

the Ukraine crisis.

This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.


Economic Indicators – IFO NA Economic Climate

Source: IFO Sept 14 This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.


Economic Indicators – IFO Asia Economic Climate

Source: IFO Sept 14 This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.

The economic climate in Asia recovered from its slump in the previous quarter.


Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Euro Area

Source: IFO Oct 14


Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Germany

Source: IFO Oct 14


Economic Indicators – Exchange rate $ vs €

Source: IFO Sept 14


Economic Indicators –

Ifo business situation and 6 month expectations

Source: IFO Oct 14

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

Jan

15

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

Jan

15

Business situation 6 months expectations

The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business situation index shows the current evaluation of the

economic situation, while the 6 month expectations index shows the expectations of the companies for the next

6 months. Over 7000 companies are being interviewed.

The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany continued to fall in September and dropped to its

lowest level since April 2013. Firms were less satisfied with their current business situation

and also more sceptical regarding future business developments. The German economy is no

longer running smoothly.


Economic Indicators – IFO Assessment of Current

Business Situation

Source: IFO Oct 14

The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany continued to fall in September and dropped to its

lowest level since April 2013. Firms were less satisfied with their current business situation

and also more sceptical regarding future business developments. The German economy is no

longer running smoothly.


Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index

printing industry

Source: IFO Oct 14, bundesverband druck und medien

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

Jan

15

The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is

based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.

The business climate within the printing industry improved from 0 to +7 in September.


Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index

printing industry

The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is

based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.

Business Development at German Printers – September 2014:

The assessment of the current business situation in the printing

industry improved considerably and reached its highest level since begin

of the year (+21).

The business climate – an indicator for the development in

the next quarter – improved significantly by 7%points.

The business expectations for the coming 6 months deteriorated

Source: IFO Oct 14, bundesverband druck und medien


Zenith Data


Global Advertising Growth

Source: ZenithOptimedia 9/14


Regional Advertising Development



Global Advertising Markets



Advertising by medium
