How Might Technological Change be

Creating New Opportunities in

Energy and Transportation Systems?

9th Session of MT5009

A/Prof Jeffrey Funk

Division of Engineering and Technology

Management

National University of Singapore

Objectives

• What has and is driving improvements in cost and

performance of energy & transportation systems?

• Can we use such information to

– identify new types of energy & transportation systems?

– analyze potential for improvements in these new

systems?

– compare new and old systems now and in future?

– better understand when new systems might become

technically and economically feasible?

– analyze the opportunities created by these new

systems?

– understand technology change in general

Session Technology

1 Objectives and overview of course

2 Four methods of achieving improvements in performance and cost: 1)

improving efficiency; 2) radical new processes; 3) geometric scaling; 4)

improvements in “key” components (e.g., ICs)

3 Semiconductors, ICs, new forms of transistors, electronic systems

4 Bio-electronics, tissue engineering, and health care

5 MEMS, nano-technology and programmable matter

6 Telecommunications and Internet

7 Human-computer interfaces, virtual and augmented reality

8 Lighting and displays

9 Energy and transportation

10 Solar cells and wind turbines

This is the Ninth Session in MT5009

Outline for Tonight

• Engines

– Efficiency of engines

– Jet engines

– Benefits from increasing the scale of these engines

• Transportation Equipment

– Trains

– Ships

– Aircraft

– Vehicles

• Electricity Generation

– Fossil fuels and steam turbines

– Other sources (of electricity) and issues

Type of

Engine

Basic Operation Basic Methods of

Improvement within

Technology Paradigm

Steam engine

(from early

1700s)

Power is generated and work

done by pressurized steam

pushing against a piston

Increase efficiency

Higher temperature,

pressure, and size

(geometric scaling)

Better controls over fuel, air,

and heat

Internal

combustion

engine (from

mid-1800s)

Power is generated and work

done by an explosion and

subsequent expansion of

gaseous fuel pushing against a

piston

Jet engine

(from mid-

1900s)

Combustion of high

temperature and pressure fuel

provides thrust

Technology Paradigms for Engines

Efficiency of Engines

• Efficiency of heat engine = 1 – Tout/Tin

• Increased temperatures often require

– better materials

– often higher pressures

– often larger scale

• These engines propel transportation device. For

them, we are often interested in power density or

miles per gallon. This also requires reductions in

– weight

– friction

– etc.

1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0

Figure 2.2 Improvements in Maximum Efficiency of Engines and Turbines

Steam

Engines Gasoline internal

combustion engines

Diesel

engines

Combined

cycle gas

turbine

Thermal

Efficiency

Source:

adapted

from (Smil,

2010, Figure

1.2) and

(Edwards et

al, 2010)

Gas

turbine

Steam

turbine

Progress of energy transportation (Watts per kg) Source: Koh and Magee, Technology Forecasting and Social Change 75(6): 735-758

Progress of energy transportation (Watts per liter). Source: Koh and Magee, Technology Forecasting and Social Change 75(6): 735-758

Source: Vaclav Smil

1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000

1010

108

106

104

102

Increases in Scale: Larger Scale Often Leads to Higher

Temperatures, Pressures, and thus Efficiencies

Steam

Engines

Internal

combustion

engines

Gas

turbines

Power

(W)

Source:

adapted

from

(Smil,

2010

Figure

2.11)

Steam

turbines

Outline for Tonight

• Engines – Efficiency of engines

– Jet engines

– Benefits from increasing the scale of these engines

• Transportation Equipment – Trains

– Ships

– Aircraft

– Vehicles

• Electricity Generation – Fossil fuels and steam turbines

– Other sources and issues

Jet Engines

• Combustion of high temperature and pressure fuel

provides thrust

– in accordance with Newton's laws of motion

• This broad definition of jet engines includes

– Turbojets, turbofans, rockets, ramjets, pulse jets, pump-jets

• Jet engines replaced piston ones partly because

– pistons can only move so fast

– propellers are limited by speed of sound and require dense air

– air causes friction (higher altitudes have thinner air and thus

less friction)

– thus jet engines (and rockets) can potentially go much faster

than piston engines

Jet Engines

Low-Bypass High-Bypass

Low-bypass ratio leads to high exhaust High bypass ratio leads to low exhaust

speed, high flight speeds, and low speed, lower flight speeds, and higher

fuel efficiency fuel efficiency

About 1.5 for fighter jets About 17 for commercial airliners

Jet Engines

• Overall Efficiency = thermal efficiency x propulsive efficiency

• Propulsive Efficiency = 2Vf/(Vf + Ve) where

Vf = flight velocity

Ve = exhaust velocity

Vf and Ve are determined by the bypass ratio

Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Aviation and the Global Atmosphere, Chapter 7

Increases in pressure

and temperature led

to higher efficiencies

(see next slide) and

lower fuel consumption

Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,

Aviation and the Global Atmosphere, Chapter 7

Unducted fans (UDF) are needed to increase bypass ratios

Ther

mal

Eff

icie

ncy

Past and Future Efforts to Increase Efficiency

Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Aviation and the Global Atmosphere, Chapter 7

Propulsive Efficiency

Outline for Tonight

• Engines – Efficiency of engines

– Jet engines

– Benefits from increasing the scale of these engines

• Transportation Equipment – Trains

– Ships

– Aircraft

– Vehicles

• Electricity Generation – Fossil fuels and steam turbines

– Other sources and issues

1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000

1010

108

106

104

102

Larger Scale Often Leads to Higher Temperatures and

Pressures: Maximum Scale of Engines and Turbines

Steam

Engines

Internal

combustion

engines

Gas

turbines

Power

(W) Source:

adapted

from

(Smil,

2010

Figure

2.11)

Steam

turbines

From 10 HP (horse power)

in 1817

To 1,300,000 HP today

(1000 MW)

Steam engine

Their modern day

equivalent: steam

turbine

From ¾ horsepower in 1885 (Benz)

to world’s largest internal

combustion engine (90,000 HP)

Produced by Wartsila-Sulzer

and used in the Emma Maersk

(a ship)

Benefits of Larger Scale in Engines

Diameter of cylinder (D)

Cost of cylinder

or piston is function

of cylinder’s surface

area (πDH)

Output of engine

is function of

cylinder’s

volume (πD2H/4)

Result: output rises

faster than costs as

diameter is increased

Height

of

cylinder

(H)

Benefits from Larger Engines

• Not just internal combustion engines (ICE), any form of engine that has pistons and cylinders

• Steam engines may benefit more from increases in scale than do ICE since they have a boiler and boilers benefit from increases in scale – Like reaction vessels, costs increase as a function of

surface area and output increases as a function of volume

• Other benefits of scaling – Higher temperatures and pressures have higher

efficiencies

– Larger engines enable higher temperatures and higher pressures

Comparing Price Per Horsepower for Smaller

and Larger Engines

• In terms of price per horsepower (HP), – A 20 HP steam engine was 1/3 that of a 2 HP engine

in 1800 (Source: von Tunzelman)

– Honda’s 225 HP marine engine is currently 26% of its 2.3 HP engine (price per HP)

• Extrapolating to the complete range of engines – largest steam engines in locomotives had thousands of

HP and largest steam turbines have 1.3 million HP

– the first (3/4 HP) and now largest (90,000 HP) ICE

– the largest engine would be less than 1% the price per HP of the smallest engine

Limits to Paradigms for Engines

• Limits to thermal efficiencies (as defined by thermodynamics) have almost been reached

• Limits to scaling (Higher temperature, pressure, and size) have almost been reached

• Limits to complexity – First jet engine in 1936: a few hundred parts

– Modern jet engines: as many as 22,000 parts

– This complexity raises costs!

• But problems with emissions (carbon dioxide, lead, nitrous and sulfur dioxides) drive the need for new technologies – what could they be?

Outline for Tonight

• Engines – Efficiency of engines

– Jet engines

– Benefits from increasing the scale of these engines

• Transportation Equipment – Trains

– Ships

– Aircraft

– Vehicles

• Electricity Generation – Fossil fuels and steam turbines

– Other sources and issues

Technology Basic Operation Basic Methods of

Improvement within

Technology Paradigm

Locomotive Output from steam engine turns

wheels and wheels run on track

Geometric Scaling

Aerodynamic designs

Lighter materials

Steam ship Output from steam engine (and later

ICE) turns propeller

Electric trains Electricity powers the rotation of

wheels through motors

Automobiles Output from ICE or electric motor

turns wheels and wheels move over

ground

Aircraft Pushed forward by output from

internal combustion engine (later by

jet engine) and wings provide “lift”

ICE: internal combustion engine

Technology Paradigms for Transportation Technologies

Reaching Limits for Transportation Speed

Exploring and Shaping International Futures, Hughes & Hillebrand, 2006, p. 37

Scaling in Transportation Equipment

• In trains, ships, planes, and vehicles – Basically long cylinder

– Construction/production cost is proportional to surface area while output (people miles) is proportional to volume (and speed)

– Benefits from increasing the scale of engines supports increases in scale of transportation equipment

– Although operating cost rise with increases in weight and speed, initially they don’t rise as fast as output does (but diseconomies usually emerge)

• Results from increases in scale – Cost of transportation dropped dramatically in the 1800s

and 1900s as large trains, ships, planes and buses were constructed (also information technology and other factors)

From tens of horsepower, miles

per hour in single digits, and 70

passengers in 1804

To thousands of horsepower,

thousands of passengers, and

126 miles per hour in 1938

A New Concept (Lighter Electric Trains) and a Big Train:

8000 KW of Power, 236 miles per hour, and

thousands of passengers

It appears that the limits of scale have been reached.

Outline for Tonight

• Engines – Efficiency of engines

– Jet engines

– Benefits from increasing the scale of these engines

• Transportation Equipment – Trains

– Ships

– Aircraft

– Vehicles

• Electricity Generation – Fossil fuels and steam turbines

– Other sources and issues

Steamships

First patent received One of First Steamships

in 1700s in America - 1815

From 1,340 tons in 1838, 10 miles

per hour, and 48 passengers in 1838

(28 Tons per passenger)

To 225,000 tons in 2009, 26 miles

per hour, and 5300 passengers in 2009

(42 Tons per passenger)

Ocean-

Travelling

Steamships

From 1807 tons in 1878

To 500,000 tons in 2009

Oil Tankers

Benefits of Scaling in Oil Tankers and

Freight Vessels

Source: UN study of shipping equipment, 2009

Scale Dimension Oil Tankers Freight Vessels

Large Scale Price $120 Million $59 Million

Capacity 265,000 tons 170,000 tons

Price per capacity $453 per ton $347 per ton

Small Scale Price $43 Million $28 Million

Capacity 38,500 tons 40,000 tons

Price per capacity $1,116 per ton $700 per ton

Outline for Tonight

• Engines – Efficiency of engines

– Jet engines

– Benefits from increasing the scale of these engines

• Transportation Equipment – Trains

– Ships

– Aircraft

– Vehicles

• Electricity Generation – Fossil fuels and steam turbines

– Other sources and issues

Geometric Scaling in Jet Engines (1)

• Combustion chambers (basically a cylinder)

benefit from larger scale

– costs rise with surface area

– output rises with volume

From 1,250 pounds of thrust in 1942 (GE’s I-A) to

127,000 pounds of thrust today (GE90-115B)

Power (horsepower) = thrust (lbf) x speed (feet/second) / 550

From 660 (at 200mph) to 170,000 (at 500 mph) horsepower

I-A

Jet Engines

Geometric Scaling in Jet Engines (2)

• Other benefits from larger scale were discussed

earlier tonight:

– Larger engines enable higher temperatures, pressures

– Higher temperatures enable higher thermal efficiencies

• Larger engines are also needed because aircraft

benefits from increases in scale

– Aircraft cost per passenger is lower for larger than

smaller planes

– Labor costs are lower and fuel efficiencies are higher

for larger aircraft

From DC-1 in 1931

(12 passengers, 180 mph)

To A-380 in 2005

(900* passengers, 560 mph)

*Economy only mode

Scale Dimension Oil Tankers Aircraft

Large

Scale

Price $120 Million $346.3 Million

(A380)

Capacity 265,000 tons 900 passengers

Price per

capacity

$453 per ton $384,777 per

passenger

Small

Scale

Price $43 Million $62.5 Million

(A318)

Capacity 38,500 tons 132 passengers

Price per

capacity

$1,116 per ton $473,348 per

passenger

Current Prices per Capacity for Large and

Small Scale Oil Tankers and Aircraft

Outline for Tonight

• Engines – Efficiency of engines

– Jet engines

– Benefits from increasing the scale of these engines

• Transportation Equipment – Trains

– Ships

– Aircraft

– Vehicles

• Electricity Generation – Fossil fuels and steam turbines

– Other sources and issues

From First Benz in 1885 (1600 cc, ¾

hp, 8 mph, 13 km/h, 1 passenger)

To: Model T (2900 cc, 20 hp) in 1909

And: BMW mini-coupe (218 HP,

1600 cc, 120 mph)

Not benefiting from scaling because

automobiles are designed only for a

few passengers!!!

From First Benz in 1885 (single

passenger, ¾ hp, 8 mph)

To 300 passenger bus in China with

over 300 horsepower

Buses do benefit

from scaling!!

But have limits

been reached?

From First Benz in 1885 (single

passenger, ¾ hp, 8 mph)

To 300 tons of material with 3000

horsepower in 21st century

Trucks also benefit

from scaling

But have limits

been reached?

Results from benefits of geometric

scaling for land, sea, and air

transportation in U.S.

• Transportation share of U.S. GDP dropped by

factor of 10

• Freight bill divided by U.S. GDP dropped by 50%

• Dollars per ton-mile for rail in U.S. dropped

almost by factor of 10

• Globalization is partly a result of scaling in

transportation equipment (and IT, containerized

shipping, and changes in political systems)

Source: Cities, regions and the decline of transport costs, Papers in Regional Science

83: 197–228 (2004), Edward L. Glaeser, Janet E. Kohlhase

(for U.S.)

For U.S.

Source: Cities, regions and the decline of transport costs, Papers in Regional Science

83: 197–228 (2004), Edward L. Glaeser, Janet E. Kohlhase

(only for rail in U.S.)

Source: Cities, regions and the decline of transport costs, Papers in Regional Science

83: 197–228 (2004), Edward L. Glaeser, Janet E. Kohlhase

But Increasing the Scale of Transportation Equipment

Required Better Components and Advances in Science

• Bigger locomotives and steam ships required – Bigger rail lines, ports, and canals

– Lighter and stronger materials for them and their engines

– Better tolerances for engines

• Electric trains required – Cheaper electricity, better motors (from the late 19th century)

• Automobiles and aircraft required – Lighter materials for them and their engines

– Better tolerances for engines

– For aircraft, • expensive composites for the fuselage and engines

• larger aircraft have required larger terminals

Limits to Efficiencies and Scaling

• Are limits to improvements in efficiencies being

approached?

• Are limits to physical spaces being approached for

– rail lines and terminals?

– shipping lanes and ports?

– air space and terminals?

– roads and parking?

• Are limits to making transportation equipment

lighter being approached?

• If there are fewer opportunities than how can we

solve problems with emissions?

How About Electric Vehicles?

• The main difference between conventional

and electric vehicles is the

– replacement of the internal combustion

engine and the gasoline tank

– with a battery and a motor

• How much can a battery’s

– energy storage density be improved?

– cost be reduced through increases in scale of

production equipment?

Improvements in Energy Storage Density per kilogram.

Source: Koh and Magee, 2005

Improvements in Energy Storage Density per unit cost.

Source: Koh and Magee, 2005

Source: Tarascon, J. 2009. Batteries for Transportation Now and In the Future,

presented at Energy 2050, Stockholm, Sweden, October 19-20.

Batteries

• Can better materials be found?

• Materials with – higher energy or power densities per volume or weight?

– lower costs per volume or weight?

• Will these better materials enable the cost and performance (e.g., range and acceleration) of electric vehicles to be rapidly improved?

• Or will the costs fall as the scale of production is increased (Lowe, M, Tokuoka, S, Trigg, T, Gereffi, G 2010. Lithium-ion Batteries for Electric

Vehicles, Center on Globalization, Governance & Competitiveness, Duke University, October 5)

– Lithium-ion batteries for cars are different from those for electronic products

– Also have lower production volumes and higher costs

What About Batteries that Benefit from

Reductions in Scale

• Thin-film ones that benefit from geometric scaling in the same that solar cells do

• Nano-scale ones – While conventional batteries separate the two electrodes by thick

barrier, nano-scale batteries place the electrodes close to each other with nano-wires and other nano-devices

– By reducing the diameter of the electrode or catalyst particles, the ratio of surface area-to volume goes up and thus the rate of exchange between particles increases

• Remember the discussion of nano-technology where surface area-to volume ratio was emphasized – Some technologies (phenomenon) benefit from increases in this

ratio

Sources: 1) Economist, 2011. The power of the press. January 20, 2011, p. 73; 2) Scientists Reveal Battery Behavior at

the Nanoscale, Science News, September 15, 2010, http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/09/100914151043.htm.

3) Building Better Batteries from the Nanoscale Up, Scientific computing,

http://www.scientificcomputing. com/news-DS-Building-Better-Batteries-from-the-Nanoscale -Up-121010.aspx,

What About Flywheels?

• Energy densities are already high, have steeper

slopes and improvements projected to continue

• Energy is function of mass times velocity squared,

lighter materials (carbon fiber) enable higher

speeds: Rapid improvements are occurring

• Better for hybrids than are batteries because twice

as much energy is converted during braking than

with batteries

• Also cheaper: One-fourth the price?

• Now used in Formula 1 cars

• Challenge is reliability with required vacuums Source: The Economist Technology Quarterly, December 3, 2011

How About Magnetic Levitating

(MagLev) Trains?

• A magnetic field enables a train to float above the

tracks, thus eliminating friction

• Problem is high cost of magnets

• Potential solution is superconducting magnets

– Need higher temperature superconducting materials

(currently best are about 90 degrees Kelvin)

– Difficult to mold ceramic materials into wires

• nano-techniques help, prices have fallen by 90% since 1990s

• they remain ten times higher than copper cables ($15-

25/kiloamp per meter)

• Best applications are in places where laying new cables is

expensive

Outline for Tonight

• Engines – Efficiency of engines

– Jet engines

– Benefits from increasing the scale of these engines

• Transportation Equipment – Trains

– Ships

– Aircraft

– Vehicles

• Electricity Generation – Fossil fuels and steam turbines

– Other sources and issues

Technology Basic Operation Basic Methods of

Improvement within

Technology Paradigm

Battery Transforms chemical energy into

electrical energy

More reactive, higher current

carrying, and lighter materials

Generators

and Turbines

Movement of a loop of wire

between poles of magnet by

turbine generates electricity

Turbine rotation driven by water,

wind or steam where steam is

generated by many sources

Higher temperature, pressure,

and scale

Higher energy density of fuels

Photovoltaic Absorption of photon releases

energy equal to “band-gap” of

material

Thinner materials that absorb

more solar radiation, have less

recombination of electrons

and holes, and have band-gaps

matching solar spectrum

Technology Paradigms for Electricity Generation

Electricity Generation

• Most electricity is generated via

– Steam, boilers, and steam turbines

• The steam can be generated by different

fuels

– Coal

– Oil

– Nuclear

– Geothermal

– Solar thermal

Costs Fell as the Scale was Increased

• Larger steam boilers and turbines

– led to cheaper turbines and

– thus lower costs of electricity generation

• Higher voltages led to lower transmission losses and thus

facilitated more centralized generation of electricity

• Result

– price of electricity in U.S. dropped from $4.50 to $0.09 between 1892

and 1970 in constant dollars

– little since then so diminishing returns to scale have probably been

reached

– Some argue US implemented too much scale

From Kilowatts (125 HP engine) to Giga-Watts

Electricity Generating Plants

Edison’s Pearl Street Station

in NY City (1880)

Scale of Coal-Fired Power Plants was Increased

Source:

Hirsh R (1989). Technology

and Transformation in the

Electric Utility Industry,

Cambridge University

Press.

Larger Scale

also Enabled

Higher

Temperatures

and Pressures

Higher

Temperatures

and Pressures

led to Higher

Efficiencies

Capital Costs Rose,

but Costs per Output

Declined

(data is for one U.S.

utility, AEP)

Transmission Systems

• Also benefit from increases in scale

• But here scale is measured in terms of voltage

• Higher voltages reduce energy loss

– HVAC: high voltage alternating current

– HVDC: high voltage direct current

• How about superconductors for transmission systems?

Fig. 3. Progress of energy transportation; (a) powered distance

and (b) powered distance per unit cost.

Better transmission systems and lower capital

costs per output (from increases in efficiency and

scale) led to lower electricity costs per kilowatt

hour: From $4.50 to $0.09 in 1996 USD

Source: Hirsh R (1989). Technology and Transformation in the Electric Utility Industry, Cambridge University Press.

Outline for Tonight

• Engines – Efficiency of engines

– Jet engines

– Benefits from increasing the scale of these engines

• Transportation Equipment – Trains

– Ships

– Aircraft

– Vehicles

• Electricity Generation – Fossil fuels and steam turbines

– Other sources and issues

Energy densities are important for many types of energy technologies!

Storage type Specific energy (MJ/kg)

Indeterminate matter and antimatter 89,876,000,000 *

Deuterium-tritium fusion 576,000,000

Uranium-235 used in nuclear weapons 88,250,000

Natural uranium (99.3% U-238, 0.7% U-235) in fast breeder reactor 86,000,000

Reactor-grade uranium (3.5% U-235) in light water reactor 3,456,000

30% Pu-238 α-decay 2,200,000

Hf-178m2 isomer 1,326,000

Natural uranium (0.7% U235) in light water reactor 443,000

30% Ta-180m isomer 41,340

Even Higher Energy Densities Exist

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_density

*about 4740 kg of antimatter could have supplied humans with all their energy needs in 2008. for more information

on anti-matter, see Michio Kaku, Physics of the Impossible, New York: Doubleday, 2008

Another way to look at energy density; Source: Vaclav Smil

Fusion (1)

• The sun’s temperature can be created with

– high energy lasers impacting on fuel pellet

– high magnetic field

• Challenges

– high accuracy of laser beams and spherical uniformity of pellets are needed in order to achieve consistent heating across the pellet

– extremely precise magnetic field is needed so that the gas is compressed evenly

• very difficult when done inside a dipole

• supercomputer plots the magnetic and electric fields

• Superconducting magnets may be needed

Fusion (2)

• “When I started in this field as a graduate student we made 1/10 of a Watt of fusion heat in a pulse of 1/100 of second. Now the record is in the range of 10 million Watts for a second. That is an improvement by an overall factor of 10 billion. The international ITER project will produce 500 million Watts of fusion heat for periods of at least 300 - 500 seconds.

• Rob Goldston, Director of the Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, 2009?

Fusion (3)

• According to Michio Kaku (2011)

• The current record is 16 MW, created by the

European Joint European Trust

• The target date for breakeven in energy is now

set to be 2019

• DEMO is expected to continually produce

energy and begin doing so in 2033. It will

produce two billion watts of power (2 GW) or

25 times more energy than it consumes

Fusion (4)

• But what will the costs be?

• Will increases in scale lead to sufficient

reductions in cost?

• Will benefits from increases in scale be similar

to those experienced with coal-fired plants?

Conclusions (1)

• Energy and transportation equipment have

benefited from

– Improvements in efficiency

– increases in scale

– and new technologies (and science)

• These changes created opportunities for new and

existing firms

• But limits to scale have probably been reached for

most existing technologies

• Thus, improvements in cost and performance,

including reducing global warming, probably require

new technologies

Conclusions (2)

• Many new technologies are decades away

– or are they? Can you identify technological trends that

suggest otherwise?

– What about fusion, electric vehicles or magnetic levitating

trains ?

• In the next session, we look at two technologies

(solar cells and wind turbines) that are experiencing

rapidly falling costs