DAILY AGRI COMMODITY REPORT

14 June 2016

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Market Views

2

MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL

TURMERIC

JULY 8040 8102 7970 8010 -0.50 9405

INTRADAY

LEVELS

SUPPORT SUPP. 1

7953

SUPP. 2

7895

PIVOT

8027

Turmeric short term

trend is bearish and

May continue in

coming days.RESISTAN

CE

RES. 1

8085

RES. 2

8159

CORIANDER

JULY 6830 6860 6780 6825 -0.15 3950

INTRADAY

LEVELS

SUPPORT SUPP.1

6783

SUPP. 2

6742

PIVOT

6822

Coriander short term

trend is bearish and May

continue in coming

days.RESISTAN

CE

RES. 1

6863

RES. 2

6902

GUARGUM

JULY 5700 5850 5660 5760 +0.70 22644

INTRADAY

LEVELS

SUPPORT SUPP. 1

5663

SUPP. 2

5567

PIVOT

5757

Guargum short term

trend is bullish and

May continue in

coming days.RESISTAN

CE

RES. 1

5853

RES. 2

5947

CASTORSEED

- - - - - - -

INTRADAY

LEVELS

SUPPORT SUPP. 1

-

SUPP. 2

-

PIVOT

--

RESISTAN

CE

RES. 1

-

RES. 2

-

Most Active Contract

3

NCDEX INDICES

Index ValuePre.

Close

%

Change

CASTORSEED - - -

CHANA 7070 6921 +2.15

CORIANDER 6740 6779 -0.58

GUARGUM - - -

JEERA 17135 16610 +3.16

MUSTARD

SEED4753 4661 +1.97

SOYABEAN - - -

TURMERIC 7958 7946 -0.15

TOP LOSERS

SYMBOL EXPIRY DATECURRENT

PRICECHANGE

CHANGE

%

TURMERIC 20-06-2016 7958.00 -120.00 -1.49%

CORIANDER 20-06-2016 6740.00 -87.00 -1.27%

REF SOYA OIL 20-06-2016 640.80 -4.15 -0.64%

TOP GAINERS

SYMBOL EXPIRY DATECURRENT

PRICECHANGE

CHANGE

%

CHANA 20-06-2016 7070.00 290.00 4.28%

JEERA 20-06-2016 17135.00 660.00 4.01%

GUAR GUM 20-06-2016 5670.00 210.00 3.85%

Commodities In News

4

ECONOMIC NEWS

Government-to-government contract is being planned to import pulses to

bridge the supply-demand gap and maintain stability of prices, Union Food

and Consumer Affairs Minister Ram Vilas Paswan today said. The

situation of pulses is now under control and month on month their prices

have gone down, he told reporters here.

"There is a gap between demand and supply. This year our production is

170 lakh tonnes, last year it was 171 lakh tonnes, before that it was 173

lakh tonnes. "On the demand side it is increasing 10 lakh tonnes per year.

This year it will be 246 lakh tonnes," he said. He said there would be a gap

of over 76 lakh tonnes. In this case, private importers may import only 60

lakh tonnes. For the rest, the government has planned to have government-

to-government contract to fill the gap. "Our team will go to Myanmar and

other countries for this."

Government may scrap the 25 per cent import duty on wheat if prices

continue to rise, Food Minister Ram Vilas Paswan said. At present, import

of wheat attracts a 25 per cent duty, which is applicable till June 30.

Despite expected increase in production this crop year, the prices have

shown a rising trend over the past few weeks. "The government is keeping

a close watch on wheat prices. So keeping in mind the recent rise in price

trend of wheat, We can rollback the import duty on wheat. We don't want

extra burden on consumers," Paswan said. He added that wheat

procurement is so far down by 50 lakh tonnes to 229 lakh tonnes compared

with 280 lakh tonnes in the year ago period. In March, the governmenthad extended the import duty on wheat by another three months, tillJune, to curb imports as domestic production is estimated to rise by over8 per cent this year. Indian flour mills have already contracted to importthree lakh tonnes from Australia and France for shipment in July-

September.

Turmeric futures traded on negative note on Friday but closed

the week higher by 0.33 per cent on good spot demand. The

Jun’16 delivery contract on NCDEX cl osed 1. 23 % down to settle at

Rs 8,050 /quintal. R eports of steady domestic demand and

expectation of higher s owing prospects have pressurizing prices. The

prices may be range bound to higher on reports of forecast of above

normal rains in turmeric growing area in south India.

Chana prices surged by 2.46 per cent to Rs 7,080 per quintal in

futures trading today as participants widened positions, tracking rising

demand in the spot market amid tight stocks position. At the National

Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, chana for delivery in July shot

up by Rs 170 or 2.46 per cent to Rs 7,080 per quintal with an open

interest of 13,520 lots.

On similar lines, the commodity for delivery in June contracts traded

higher by Rs 87 or 1.26 per cent to Rs 7,008 per quintal in 310 lots.

The sugar season (SS) in India starts in October and ends in

September the following year. Not only is output in SS 2015-16

estimated to fall nearly 10 per cent to 25.1 million tonnes compared to

SS 2014-15 but if the government's initial estimates are anything to go

by, output at 23.5 mt for SS 2016-17 will fall another six per cent year-

on-year. Industry officials fear that if yields (finished sugar output from

cane) come lower than expected, production might fall further. This

would help prices stay at elevated levels, which means companies will

first generate a good amount of profit and cash to pay arrears and then

repay debts. Not surprisingly, analysts are bullish on sugar companies

from a long-term perspective. Deven Choksey, managing director, KR

Choksey Shares and Securities, says: "Globally, sugar prices' forward

curve indicates strength. In India, companies are holding stock which

will fetch higher prices and the industry has entered a three-year bull

cycle which began in January 2016.

5

Fundamental Watch : Cotton

COTTON PRICES AT KEY SPOT MARKET National Market Update

According to government and trade sources, Indian cotton acreage is likely

to decline by 5 -7 per cent this season compared to 118 lakh hectares during

the previous year. According to early estimates acreage is likely to decline by

around 10 lakh hectares. Delay in monsoon, fear of pest attack which crop

production previous year and advise by State Governments to decline acreage

under cotton are the factors behind likely decline in acreage.

Export of cotton-based textile goods declined in 2015-16 by 2.1 per cent to

$36.2 billion compared to $37.1 billion in 2014-15. Exports have been

declining during the last few months. The high price of domestic cotton,

coupled with heavy duties on import of cheaper Chinese varieties, has affected

production of cotton goods according to industry officials.

The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has estimated India’s cotton output in

2015 -16 at 341.50 lakh bales (of 170 kg each), around 10.8 per cent lower

Thicompared to the previous year’s production of 383 lakh bales. The

projected balance sheet drawn by the CAI for 2015-16 pegs total supply at

429.10 lakh bales, while domestic consumption is seen at 305 lakh bales, thus

leaving an available surplus of 124.10 lakh bales.

The Foreign Agriculture Services (FAS), division of USDA has lowered the

production forecast for India in its latest report to 356 lakh bales. The reason

for the downfall in the revision is lower yield expectation in Punjab and

Haryana due to the attack of white fly and impact of pink bollworm in Gujarat.

CENTER 13-Jun-16 11-Jun-16 Change

RAJKOT 5860 5795 +65

BHIWANI 5500 5500 UNCH

ADAMPUR 5720 5630 +90

AHMEDABAD 5760 5625 +125

GONDAL 5885 5785 +100

GUNTUR NA NA -

RAICHUR 5969 NA -

Technical Outlook

6

SELL CORIANDER JULY BELOW 6760 TARGET 6715 6615 SL

ABOVE 6825

SELL GUARGUM JULY BELOW 5750 TARGET 5700 5630 SL

ABOVE 5810

SELL TURMERIC JULY BELOW 7970 TARGET 7926 7866 SL

ABOVE 8030

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