Epic research special report of 5 july 2016.pdf

DAILY REPORT 05

th JULY 2016

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Global markets at a glance European shares ended a four-day winning streak on Mon-day, with battered banking stocks offsetting gains among mining shares boosted by higher metals prices. Monte dei Paschi hit a record low as a European Central Bank request that it sell bad loans raised worries the Italian lender may have to raise capital quickly. Italy's FTSE MIB, down 1.7 per-cent, underperformed the market. The pan-European STOXX 600 index closed 0.7% lower after gaining 7.6% in the past four sessions. The FTSEurofirst 300 index fell 0.6 percent. Stocks rose last week as expectations the ECB would step in to support markets eased concerns over Brit-ain's decision last month to leave the European Union. Asia markets were broadly lower on Tuesday at the open, likely taking cues from European equities, which slid Mon-day on renewed Brexit concerns. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 dropped 0.85 percent in early trade; across the Korean Strait, the Kospi slid 0.28%. Australia's benchmark ASX 200 was down some 0.54%, with the heavily-weighted finan-cials sub-index weighing, down some 0.76%. Major Austra-lian banks were under pressure, with shares of Westpac down some 1.35%. The ongoing political uncertainty in Australia was weighing on the future of the big banks. European stocks finished lower on Monday, with the UK's benchmark FTSE 100 off 0.8%. Markets in the US were closed Monday for Independence Day public holiday. In the UK, the ramifications of its vote to quit the EU continued. Previous day Roundup The Sensex closed up 133.85 points or 0.5 percent at 27278.76, and the Nifty ended up 42.35 points or 0.5 per-cent at 8370.70. About 1711 shares have advanced, 1018 shares declined, and 153 shares are unchanged. BHEL, Adani Ports, ICICI Bank, ONGC and Coal India were top gainers while ITC, Dr Reddy', Bajaj Auto, HUL and TCS were losers in the Sensex. All eyes will be on the Cabinet re-shuffle today. As many as 19 new ministers, half a dozen of them from Uttar Pradesh which goes to polls in 2017, are set to be inducted into his team by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Index stats The Market was very volatile in last session. The sartorial indices performed as follow; Consumer Durables [up 53.50 pts], Capital Goods [up 191.06 pts], PSU [up 121.91pts], FMCG [down 113.36 Pts], Realty [up 33.86 pts], Power [up 10.50 pts], Auto [up 121.88 pts], Healthcare [up 105.31 pts], IT [up 73.31 pts], Metals [up 143.31 Pts], TECK [up 47.37 pts], Oil& Gas [up 155.76 pts].

World Indices

Index Value % Change

DJI 17821.00 -0.25

S&P500 2091.25 -0.24

NASDAQ 4862.57 +0.41

FTSE100 6458.00 -0.16

NIKKEI 15647.79 -0.81

HANG SENG 20901.99 -0.75

Top Gainers

Company CMP Change % Chg

BHEL 138.00 5.95 4.51

ADANIPORTS 213.50 9.20 4.50

TATAMTRDVR 303.85 12.40 4.25

ICICIBANK 248.80 8.45 3.52

ONGC 231.80 6.80 3.02

Top Losers


ITC 245.60 -6.75 -2.67

BOSCHLTD 22235.25 -449.05 -1.98

KOTAKBANK 742.90 -10.50 -1.39

INDUSINDBK 1108.00 -15.35 -1.37

GRASIM 4579.90 -63.35 -1.36

Stocks at 52 Week’s HIGH

Symbol Prev. Close Change %Chg

ABMINTLTD 102.50 4.85 4.97

ADHUNIKIND 93.00 0.95 1.03

ANSALHSG 29.90 0.80 2.75

ARSSINFRA 92.55 8.40 9.98

ASPINWALL 263.20 12.50 4.99

ATUL 2029.00 3.00 0.15

BAJAJFINSV 2360.00 5.20 0.22

Indian Indices


NIFTY 8370.70 +42.35 +0.51

SENSEX 27278.76 +133.85 +0.49

Stocks at 52 Week’s LOW

Symbol Prev. Close Change %Chg

ADHUNIKIND 93.00 0.95 1.03

BIRLACOT 0.05 -0.05 -50.00

DAMODARIND 73.00 -0.80 -1.08

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DAILY REPORT 05

th JULY 2016


STOCK RECOMMENDATION [CASH] ALLAHBAD BANK [CASH]

Last trading session ALLAHBAD BANK has shown a good upside move with an increase around 8% and is trading in bullish rally on daily chart for this it is expected to touch resistance level of 80. So we advise to buy ALLAHBAD BANK above 76 for the targets of 77.50 78.50 with the stop loss below 74.80. MACRO NEWS Power output growth up at 9.5% in 2016 RBI may soon allow interoperability of Post payment

bank ATMs Vishwanathan takes charge as new deputy governor RBI RBI sets rupee reference rate at 67.1848 against US dol-

lar Freecharge to make 1,00,000 taxis cashless with

Freecharge wallet 91% airlines preparing to invest in cyber security Kingfisher Airlines executives can be jailed over loss of

company accounts India may alter minimum import price list for steel sector Atul Auto sees sales volumes improving to 3,500 units

soon. With crude firming up, HPCL likely to see higher margins TCL targets 10% share in 4G smartphone segment by

2018. Tea prices may increase by Rs 10-15 a kg. UltraTech to buy JP Associates' cement biz for Rs

16,600cr EU exit could cut UK GDP by 1.5-4.5% by 2019: IMF's La-

garde Bhushan, Electrosteel & Visa Steel may make the cut for

S4A IPO deals jump in H1, $6-billion worth deals likely in H2

STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS [FUTURE] 1. ICICIBANK[FUTURE]

Last trading session ICICIBANK future give out-performed in banking sector and close near day high with bullish can-dlestick in daily chart.And stock cross last 4 week high and cross major resistance level and since last session it rose with rising OI in long side . We may see sharp rise for that it will be good to buy above 250.25 for the target of 253.25-257 with SL of 247. 2. ADANIPORTS [FUTURE]

Last trading session ADANIPORTS future show good strenth and close near day high with bullish candlestick in daily chart. since last session it rose with rising OI in long side and last day stock close near major resistance level. We may see sharp rise for that it will be good to buy above 216.50 for the target of 218.70-222 with SL of 212.


DAILY REPORT 05

th JULY 2016


FUTURES & OPTIONS

MOST ACTIVE CALL OPTION

Symbol Op-

tion

Type

Strike

Price

LTP Traded

Volume

(Contracts)

Open

Interest

NIFTY CE 8,500 67.05 1,61,236 42,48,600

NIFTY CE 8,400 113.00 1,32,497 29,50,125

BANKNIFTY CE 18,200 59.05 52,538 2,80,920

SBIN CE 230 5.95 2,458 35,43,000

LT CE 1,600 34.55 1,586 3,46,500

ICICIBANK CE 250 7.10 1,365 22,40,000

ASHOKLEY CE 105 1.20 1,426 67,27,000

RELIANCE CE 1,020 11.90 1,503 4,60,500

MOST ACTIVE PUT OPTION

Symbol Op-

tion

Type

Strike

Price

LTP Traded

Volume

(Contracts)

Open

Interest

NIFTY PE 8,300 89.20 1,27,238 29,78,175

NIFTY PE 8,200 61.10 1,16,613 40,64,550

BANKNIFTY PE 18,000 43.95 57,712 4,09,600

LT PE 1,500 20.5 927 2,45,000

SBIN PE 210 3.65 1,724 38,97,000

DLF PE 150 3.95 872 16,80,000

ICICIBANK PE 240 4.70 985 11,25,000

RELIANCE PE 960 9.10 860 3,00,000

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS

BUY OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY SELL

No. of

Contracts Amount in

Crores No. of

Contracts Amount in

Crores No. of

Contracts Amount in

Crores NET AMOUNT

INDEX FUTURES 20165 1309.90 18791 1234.18 230103 14740.32 75.72

INDEX OPTIONS 260537 16941.29 248848 16207.84 753058 47431.52 733.44

STOCK FUTURES 71780 4593.34 63111 4090.16 768187 48266.22 503.18

STOCK OPTIONS 35215 2312.83 35327 2322.65 29814 1916.28 -9.82

TOTAL 1302.53

STOCKS IN NEWS JP Associates seeks to call off cement biz sale to Ul-

traTech Cement RIL gets green nod for Rs 800 cr drilling project in TN TVS Motor gets favourable interim order on dispute

against Bajaj Auto Tata Sons to invest another Rs 3,000 cr into Tata Tele-

services Tata Steel Q1 hot metal output up 17% at 3 MT Bajaj Auto sales tumble 4% in June Expect 8-9% yield from property bought from Kanakia:

Cineline NIFTY FUTURE

NIFTY in last trading session opened with gap up then traded in narrow range around 25-30 points. And spot Nifty is respecting 8400 level and closed with a bullish candlestick in daily chart. so we advise you to Buy Nifty on decline around 8350-8355 for the targets of 8400-8450 with strict stop loss of 8300.

INDICES R2 R1 PIVOT S1 S2

NIFTY 8415.30 8401.50 8384.60 8370.80 8353.90

BANKNIFTY 18191.00 18144.00 18099.00 18052.00 18007.00


DAILY REPORT 05

th JULY 2016


COMMODITY ROUNDUP Gold firmed up today as safe haven buying is propelling the commodity following escalation in global terror risks. The Islamic State initiated a massive car bomb in one of Bagh-dad’s busiest commercial areas, killing more than 100 peo-ple and injuring about 200 people. This has pushed up Gold sharply to about two and half year highs. The metal cur-rently trades at $1355 per ounce, up about 1.20% on the day. MCX Gold futures are trading at Rs 31814 per 10 grams, up 1.12% on the day. Gold futures rallied sharply Friday, adding to weekly gains amid renewed jitters about the global economy. It was the fifth straight weekly gain to 2-year highs. Gold has also seen a sharp jump and is now trading above $1,350 an ounce. In Mumbai, standard gold closed Rs 335 higher at Rs 31,080, which is the highest after November 2013. However, the spot market is still quoting at a huge discount which means lack of demand. Discount on Monday, as polled by NCDEX, widened to $45 an ounce or nearly Rs 1,000 for 10 gram. Silver prices in the spot market here have seen the biggest single-day jump in prices in the past three years, on Monday rising to Rs 2,260 to close five per cent higher at Rs 47,340 a kg. In the international market, silver crossed $21 an-nounce in morning trade and at evening time in India, was trading at $20.6 an ounce. Following indications of further quantitative easing in the wake of Britain's exit from the EU, which means pumping of more liquidity, all commodities have rebounded. Silver was the highest gainer among all. Monday's price is also the highest after March 2014. Copper was trading higher at the start of the week as fears of UK exiting Britain took a back seat. Meanwhile, major news were realised last week from CoT. The long positions of Merchants were 37001 on 28 June 2016 against 48019 on 21 June 2016, while short positions increased to 56284 on 28 June 2016 against 55892 on 21 June 2016. Overall the net positions in case of merchants are favoring shorts by 19283. CoT showed that the long positions of Money Man-agers decreased by 127. The total long positions of Copper for the one week period ending 28 June 2016 was 31985 compared to 21 June 2016 was 32112. Short position of Copper money managers decreased by 22226 lots to 37924 on 28 June 2016 against 60150 on 21 June 2016. The net positions were in favour of short position holders by 5939. Indian Copper was trading at Rs 335.90 per kg., up 0.81%. Breaking the channel of Rs 337 per kg on the top can take prices near to Rs 350 per kg. The prices have so far tested a high of Rs 336 per kg and a low of Rs 335.85 per kg.

RECOMMENDATIONS

GOLD

TRADING STRATEGY:

BUY GOLD ABOVE 31850 TARGET 31930 32050 SL 31750

SELL GOLD BELOW 31600 TARGET 31520 31420 SL 31700

SILVER

TRADING STRATEGY:

BUY SILVER ABOVE 48932 TARGET 49132 49430 SL 48700

SELL SILVER BELOW 47350 TARGET 47150 46850 SL 47600

MCX


DAILY REPORT 05

th JULY 2016


NCDEX

NCDEX INDICES

Index Value % Change

BARLEY 1582 +0.70

CHANA 7150 -.0.54

CORIANDER 2535 +0.28

COTTON SEED 3174 +0.06

GUAR SEED 17540 +0.06

JEERA 4812 +.69

MUSTARDSEED 3780 +1.59

REF SOYA OIL 3595 -0.11

SUGAR M GRADE 7980 -3.06

TURMERIC 1752 -1.18

RECOMMENDATIONS

DHANIYA

BUY CORIANDER AUG ABOVE 7350 TARGET 7395 7495 SL

BELOW 7285

SELL CORIANDER AUG BELOW 7200 TARGET 7155 7055 SL

ABOVE 7265

GUARGUM

BUY GUARGUM OCT ABOVE 6080 TARGET 6130 6200 SL

BELOW 6020

SELL GUARGUM OCT BELOW 6000 TARGET 5950 5880 SL

ABOVE 6060

Extending its gain for the third straight day, crude palm oil-prices advanced by 0.50% to Rs 502 per 10 kg in futures trading as traders engaged in enlarging positions, taking positive cues from spot market on strong demand. At the MCX crude palm oil for delivery in far-month August gained Rs 2.50, or 0.50% to Rs 502 per 10 kg in business turnover of 41 lots. On similar lines, the oil for delivery in July con-tracts went up by Rs 2.30, or 0.46% to Rs 503.80 per 10 kg in 163 lots. Expanding of positions by participants, driven by strong demand in the spot market against tight stocks posi-tion restricted supplies from producing regions keptcrude palm oil prices higher at futures trade. As per latest release of Agricultural Outlook 2016-25 by Food and Agriculture Organization of United States, over the ten-year Outlook period the demand growth for food is expected to slow progressively. The Global population growth, the main driver of demand increases, is declining, while income growth in emerging economies is projected to be weaker. At the same time, consumers, especially in populous emerging economies, show a declining propensity to spend income gains on consuming more basic foodstuffs. Demand for meat, fish and dairy products will grow rela-tively strongly, inducing additional demand for feed, in par-ticular from coarse grains and protein meals. Agri-commodities are not behind in keeping Indian exports low. Rather they have fallen to a five-year low in 2015-16 according to data provided by Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA). From a pick of $42.84 billion in FY14, agri exports are falling but the fall was sharper with 17% decline in FY16 to $32.09 billion and except sugar and couple of other small items in top ten of the agri export basket, all commodities exports declined.


DAILY REPORT 05

th JULY 2016


RBI Reference Rate

Currency Rate Currency Rate

Rupee- $ 67.1848 Yen-100 65.4700

Euro 74.8304 GBP 89.3020

CURRENCY

USD/INR

BUY USD/INR JULY ABOVE 67.9 TARGET 68.03 68.18 SL BE-

LOW 67.7

SELL USD/INR JULY BELOW 67.78 TARGET 67.65 67.5 SL

ABOVE 67.98

EUR/INR

BUY EUR/INR JULY ABOVE 75.15 TARGET 75.3 75.5 SL BE-

LOW 74.95

SELL EUR/INR JULY BELOW 74.9 TARGET 74.75 74.55 SL

ABOVE 75.1

CURRENCY MARKET UPDATES:

In the wider currency market, the Japanese yen, consid-

ered a haven asset, strengthened against the dollar, trad-

ing at 102.26 in early trade on Tuesday, after weakening as

much as 103.39 on Friday. The dollar was a touch lower

against a basket of currencies, trading at 95.577, compared

to its last close at 95.649. Down Under, the Australian dol-

lar traded at the USD 0.75 handle, around USD 0.7521 as of

8:26 a.m. HK/SIN; the Aussie dropped to levels near USD

0.7438 on Monday amid the uncertainty surrounding the

country's election outcome. Investors will continue to

monitor the apparent political deadlock in Australia, after a

federal election at the weekend failed to produce a clear

winner. Continued political and economic uncertainty

could see the country move closer to losing its vaunted

triple-A credit rating.

The rupee moved with little changes against the dollar on

the money market during the week, ended on July 2, 2017.

In the interbank market, the rupee fell slightly in terms of

dollar for buying and selling at Rs 104.82 and Rs 104.84. In

the open market, the rupee shed 20 paisas against the dol-

lar for buying at Rs 105.10 and Rs 105.30. The rupee lost Rs

1.20 versus the euro for buying at Rs 116.00 and the na-

tional currency also fell 70 paisas for selling at Rs 117.00.

Country's foreign exchange reserves stood at 21.8 billion

dollars. Besides, remittances decelerated to 12 percent in

2015 due to fall in oil prices.

If dollars' supply halted for any reason, the rupee may face

decline versus the dollar in the coming days. On Monday,

the rupee gained three paisas in terms of dollar for buying

and selling at Rs 104.80 and Rs 104.81. On Tuesday, the

rupee gained six paisas in terms of dollar for buying and

selling at Rs 104.74 and Rs 104.76. On Wednesday, the ru-

pee inched up by one paisa in terms of dollar for buying

and selling at Rs 104.73 and Rs 104.75. On Thursday, the

rupee lost nine paisa in terms of dollar for buying and sell-

ing at Rs 104.82 and Rs 104.84. On 1st July interbank mar-

ket was closed due to bank holiday.


DAILY REPORT 05

th JULY 2016


Date Commodity/ Currency

Pairs Contract Strategy Entry Level Target Stop Loss Remark

04/07/16 NCDEX DHANIYA JULY BUY 7350 7395-7495 7285 NOT EXECUTED

04/07/16 NCDEX DHANIYA JULY SELL 7200 7155-7055 7265 NOT EXECUTED

04/07/16 NCDEX GUARGUM JULY BUY 6050 6100-6170 5990 SL TRIGGERED

04/07/16 NCDEX GUARGUM JULY SELL 6000 5950-5880 6060 BOOKED PROFIT

04/07/16 MCX GOLD AUG. BUY 31430 31250-31100 31600 BOOKED PROFIT

04/07/16 MCX GOLD AUG. SELL 31600 31700-31800 31430 NOT EXECUTED

04/07/16 MCX SILVER JULY BUY 46500 47000-47500 46100 BOOKED PROFIT

04/07/16 MCX SILVER JULY SELL 46100 45950-45500 46350 NOT EXECUTED

Date Scrip

CASH/

FUTURE/

OPTION

Strategy Entry Level Target Stop Loss Remark

04/07/16 NIFTY FUTURE BUY 8380 8430-8500 8290 CALL OPEN

04/07/16 SBIN FUTURE BUY 222.5 224.5-228 218 BOOKED FULL PROFIT

04/07/16 BHEL FUTURE BUY 132.5 135-138 130 BOOKED FULL PROFIT

04/07/16 M&MFIN CASH BUY 360 364-367 355 NOT EXECUTED

01/07/16 NIFTY FUTURE BUY 8340 8400-8500 8200 BOOKED PROFIT


DAILY REPORT 05

th JULY 2016


NEXT WEEK'S U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

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Disclaimer

TIME REPORT PERIOD ACTUAL CONSENSUS

FORECAST PREVIOUS

MONDAY, JULY 02

INDEPENDENCE DAY NONE SCHEDULED

TUESDAY, JULY 03

10 AM FACTORY ORDERS MAY -- 1.9%

WEDNESDAY, JULY 04

8:30 AM TRADE DEFICIT MAY -$37.4BLN

9:45 AM MARKIT SERVICES PMI JUNE 51.3

10 AM ISM NONMANUFACTURING JUNE 52.9%

2 PM FOMC MINUTES 6/16

THURSDAY, JULY 05

8:15 AM ADP EMPLOYMENT JUNE 173,000

8:30 AM WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS 7/2 N/A N/A

FRIDAY, JULY 07

8:30 AM NONFARM PAYROLLS JUNE 38,000

8:30 AM UNEMPLOYMENT RATE JUNE 4.7%

8:30 AM AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS JUNE 0.2

3 PM CONSUMER CREDIT MAY $13 BLN


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Epic research special report of 5 july 2016.pdf