Ethiopia Strategy Support ProgramESSP-2

Paul DoroshProgram Leader ESSP-2

Senior Research Fellow IFPRIp.dorosh@cgiar.org

USAID AddisApril 14, 2009

Ethiopia Strategy Support Program (ESSP)Bridging Knowledge and Policy

• Research and outreach to address knowledge gaps, capacity building and policy dialogues to support country’s development strategy

• Provide analytical support for setting up the first commodity exchange in Ethiopia

• Draw lessons that can be sharedwith other countries in a similarcontext

IFPRI in Ethiopia: ESSP and ESSP-2

ESSP: Ethiopian Strategy Support Program 2004-07

Ethiopian Commodity Exchange (ECX)

Research

Agricultural market analysis

Atlas of Ethiopian Agriculture / GIS Database

Agricultural growth strategy / Efficiency of public expenditures

Rural poverty dynamics (Ethiopian Rural Household Survey)

Safety nets (PSNP)

ESSP-2: 2008-2012 (Capacity Strengthening; Policy-Oriented Research)

The Ethiopian Commodity Exchange (ECX) ESSP research investigated the need for and feasibility of a

commodity exchange

The ECX was successfully launched in April 2008 As of June 2008, ECX activities were no longer financially linked to

IFPRI-ESSP.

The ECX involves three related market institutions A commodity exchange linking buyers and sellers

A warehouse receipts system (commodities sold on the exchange are physically stored in ECX warehouses throughout Ethiopia)

A payments settlement system enabling almost immediate transfer of funds from the buyer to seller

In late 2008, the ECX began trading coffee, greatly adding to ECX transactions and revenues.

Ethiopia Strategy Support Program (ESSP-2)Work Plan 2008-9

Determinants of agricultural productivity Analysis of farm-level data from Central Statistical Agency

(CSA) annual surveys

Extension of Ethiopian Rural Household Survey (ERHS) panel data in 18 localities

Will include analysis of agricultural input use, gender issues, household response to high food prices

Government agricultural spending efficiency Review of past government projects

Institutional analysis at local level (public service delivery/governance)

Rural non-farm clusters (hand-looms)

Ethiopia Strategy Support Program (ESSP-2)Work Plan 2008-9 (cont.)

Land tenure and watershed management

Determinants of market prices of cereals

Operational multi-market model for analysis and training

Book on Ethiopian food and agricultural policy

Rural-urban transformation

Rural-urban migration

Structural changes in the economy

Implications of infrastructure investments

Ethiopia Strategy Support Program (ESSP-2)Capacity Building

Ethiopian Development Research Institute (EDRI)

Joint research on rural non-farm clusters

Support to EDRI SAM/CGE Analysis

Support to short-term policy analysis on cereal markets, inflation and economic growth

Joint seminar series

International PhD (5) training (planned)

Ethiopia Strategy Support Program (ESSP-2)Capacity Building (2)

Central Statistics Agency (CSA)

Support to GIS analysis (population census…)

Creation of operational GIS data base with initial basic maps and analysis

Federal and regional GIS training

Strengthening of dissemination of data through REKSS

Increasing access to cities of

50,000 population in Ethiopia

Regional, primary road upgrades

equivalent to 80km/hour does not create

major improvements to rural access

Less than 1% of the population of any

region would improve their access to

less than 1 hour

An extra 530,000 people (3.7% of

regional population) in SNNP would be

within 3 hours travel time of a city after

regional road improvement.

Other regions (outside of the four main

regions – Amhara, Tigray, Oromia, and

SNNP) would experience a 4.9%

increase in access within 3 hours of a

city of 50,000 population.

Current Road Conditions

Regional Road Improvements

Given regional road upgrades, the largest improvement in access is in the North and Southwest of the country.

Ethiopia Strategy Support Program (ESSP-2)Capacity Building (3)

Ministry of Agriculture

Support to agricultural and food security policy analysis

Creation of operational agricultural policy data base

Training on agricultural policy analysis

Strengthening of dissemination of data through REKSS