Fast forward project

FastForward Study: High Speed Global Point-To-Point Transportation Investigative Group1

Dr. John OldsExecutive Study Group DirectorCEO | SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. | [email protected] | 1+770.379.8002

Mr. Charles J. LauerStudy Group Member

VP Business Development | Rocketplane Global, Inc. | [email protected] | +1 734. 476.2888

FastForward Study Group: Overview

Version A | 25 November 2009

mailto:[email protected]


What is the FastForward Study Group?

• FastForward is an ad-hoc study group consisting of members from major aerospace contractors, emerging new space companies, spaceports, key federal government agencies, and academia

– All-volunteer effort formed in October 2008– 20 organizations represented (by invitation to selected individuals)– Hosted by SpaceWorks Commercial (Washington, DC, USA)

• Our focus is on pre-competitive analysis and assessment of future global high speed point-to-point passenger and cargo services

• Our group produces technical papers, white papers, and software tools related to global PTP transportation for use by our members and the community at-large


-So . . . where are the Space Clippers?


Global High Speed Point-to-Point (PTP) Cargo/Passenger Travel


FastForward Study Group Members Come from a Variety of Organizations

This Document contains Proprietary Information of Rocketplane Global, Inc. Disclosure to others, use or copying without the express written authorization of Rocketplane Global, Inc. is strictly prohibited.

The Fast(est) Package Market

• ~10% of ALL package deliveries are now moving by the fastest available means

• ~10% of the fast package delivery market is for international destinations

• ~50% of total global market for international fast package delivery is US based

• “Just in Time” management practices and strong growth in Asia are driving the market

• According to “Freight In America” a study by the US DOT:– “Air freight and express delivery are growing the most

rapidly” of all freight sectors, – From 1993 to 2002 the value of parcel shipments, the

majority transported by air grew, 75% from $563 Billion to $986 Billion.


Current Same Day International Express Delivery Service Market

• 700,000 lbs/day current international traffic• $10 billion / year global market

– Average delivery cost of $41/lb– Typical “fast as possible” international express delivery time is ~3 days

• Hypersonic suborbital spaceplanes can provide global same-day delivery capability

0

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ht

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FedEx UPS USPS DHL Others

Carriers

International Fast Package Delivery - Daily Traffic


Example Point-to-Point Suborbital Flight

A P2P transport vehicle from a major American package carrier leaves from Guangzhou, China to Paris, France at 10:00 am Monday.

• After takeoff the vehicle flies subsonically out of the city and accelerates and climbs, reaching Mach 3 at 80,000ft in under 20 min.

• It boosts into a suborbital arc trajectory at ~8,000mph.

• Some 25 min later it has crossed all of China and Kazakhstan.

• In the next 15 minutes it flies over Moscow, Russia, then crosses, Belarus, Lithuania, and into Poland.

• Somewhere over Poland the vehicle reenters the atmosphere and bleeds energy in a series of gentle turns over Poland and Germany.

• The vehicle passes over Luxembourg, Belgium, and Northern France in the next 15 min slowing to subsonic speeds.

• Landing in France ~1.5hrs after takeoff. At 4:30 am Monday.

The packages can be delivered before they were sent!


P2P Regulatory Issues• Noise Deregulation:

• Vehicles will produce noise similar to powerful military or other large supersonic planes

• Supersonic over-flight a necessity, audible sonic booms unavoidable

• Over-Flight and Ec:• Operation must occur at major

cities & shipping hubs to be effective

• Service will require over-flight of heavily populated areas

• Vehicle Safety:• P2P vehicles need a high flight rate

and rapid turnaround to be economical

• Safety regulations must be clear up front prior to costly P2P development


P2P Regulatory Issues 2

• International “Space Traffic Control” system needs to be integrated into existing IATC:• P2P Vehicles will go to LEO altitudes

following “Great Circles”• Cross multiple traffic control areas in

minutes, multiple international boundaries in under an hour

• Control Priority – Reroute of P2P is risky and may leave P2P stranded with no GSE

• ITAR:• P2P Vehicles are fantastically suited to

intercontinental flight• Security of technology must be

maintained, but commerce must be allowed to proliferate

• Earth and Space Pollution:• Natural & clean synthetic hydrocarbons

& cryogenic propellants are low impact• Orbital Debris control and reduction

needed for safe civilian & commercial travel


Technical Issues

• Civilian/Commercial/Military Cooperation can greatly accelerate the development of solutions to current P2P technical issues:– Highly reusable Thermal Protection Systems

(TPS) for orbital heat loading– Highly reusable rocket engine and

turbomachinery technology– Rocket Based Combined Cycle (RBCC) or

Turbine Based Combined Cycle (TBCC) and other advanced engines

– Vehicle Health Monitoring Systems (VHMS) and Structural Health Monitoring Systems (SHMS) and prognostic/diagnostic capabilities

– Fully reusable flight weight cryo structures– Civil Aerial Refueling Technologies


Primary FastForward Study Group Focus Areas

1. Market assessment and characterization of future high speed point-to-

point service for passengers and cargo, including economic drivers

2. Identification of key regulatory and policy issues

3. Evaluation of candidate flight vehicle options and technology needs

4. Identification of challenges for emerging Aerospaceports in the U.S. and

abroad

5. Identification of synergies with ongoing government encouragement of

advanced flight programs

Our focus is on pre-competitive analysis and assessment of future global high-speed point-to-point passenger and cargo services


Potential High Speed PTP Market Approaches

- Passengers (tourists, business travelers, VIPs)- Cargo (standard envelopes, freight, perishables)- Mixed Pax/Freight Solutions (belly cargo)

Revenue Payload Options

- Domestic service (e.g. east coast-west coast U.S.)- International/Global service (long distance transoceanic and transcontinental)- Potential to use a network of emerging international aerospaceports

Destinations

- On-demand service (quick response flights taken when and where needed)- Scheduled service (e.g. FedEx/UPS or airline type models)

Service Levels

Potential market approaches are quite diverse, with several candidate options potentially leading to successful business models


The High Speed PTP Trade Space


Economic Viability- What is the design market? Can it compete and make money?

Technical Readiness- What are key technologies (propulsion, airframe, controls)

Safety & Reliability- Can it achieve aircraft-like safety and reliability records?

Environmental Impacts- What about SST downfalls: noise, land overflight, emissions?

Regulatory & Legal- Can high-speed point-to-point overcome regulatory and legal hurdles:

streamlined customs, liability, overflight of non-participatory countries, integration with ATC systems?

There is a diverse set of preferred vehicle configurations represented by FastForward team members, but all must meet key requirements

Key PTP Vehicle Selection Concerns


Sample Candidate PTP Vehicles and Flight Concepts

Evolved Versions of Single-Site Suborbital Personal Spaceflight Vehicles

New Vehicles with Longer Range (Reusable or Expendable, Subsonic, Hypersonic)

Sierra Nevada Corp. Dreamchaser RocketPlane Global XP XCOR Lynx

Aerion SBJ (Supersonic Business Jet) Gulfstream Supersonic Business Jet

Notional Hypersonic Vehicle (SEI)

Supersonic Aerospace International, LLC (SAI) Quiet Supersonic Transport

(QSST)

All images are property of their respective copyright owners and are used here for educational purposes only


Future Aerospaceports That Might Serve 1st Gen PTP Markets

View from 100 km


Current Areas of Investigation


Current FastForward Study Group Research Areas

1. Hypersonic or Supersonic Service?

– Is supersonic service sufficient to meet market requirements?

– Is exoatmospheric flight required?

2. PTP Market Size and Characteristics

– Who are the likely customers and what will they ship?

– What synergies exist between passenger and cargo service?

3. Identification of Emerging Spaceport Challenges with respect to PTP Services

– Subgroup of spaceport members prioritizing spaceport issues

4. International Participation and Coordination

– How should FastForward engage international participants?


Recent FastForward Study Products (2008 - 2009)

1. Five Technical Papers Related to PTP Markets and Business Cases

– IAC 2008, SPACE 2009 (2), IAC 2009, IAC 2010

2. Four Panel Sessions Discussing the Potential of PTP Markets

– SPACE 2009, Google Talks, NewSpace 2009, CRASTE 2009 (CRLV Team)

3. Two Software Simulation Tools for PTP

– GHoST calculator for fast package delivery times for candidate cities given range, pickup/distribution times, and vehicle average flight speed

– PTP Discrete Event network operations model for optimum fleet sizing

4. Develop a List of Top 7 Challenges Facing Spaceports for Future PTP

– Collaborative effort of FastForward spaceport members

5. FastForward Group White Paper (October 2009)

– Getting Faster: A Case for High-Speed Global Point-to-Point Flight as a Logical Transition Between Suborbital Space Tourism and Low-Cost, Reusable Space Access


Summer 2009 Activity Prioritized Top 7 Issues Facing Spaceports to Enable Point-to-Point Operations1. ACCESS:

- Airspace Management & Integration with the National Airspace System (NAS)- Establishing Flight Corridors (noise, safety, Ec calculations, environmental compliance, etc.)

2. COHERENT LEGAL & REGULATORY FRAMEWORK FOR INTL OPERATIONS:- Operate under LICENSE with INFORMED CONSENT- Affordable Underwriter Market: Insurability of Operations- Cooperative Regulation (FAA, EASA, CAA, etc)- Legal Operating Frameworks amongst Domestic & Intl Spaceports (Point-to-Point Network)

3. COMMON SPACEPORT PROCESSES AND PROCEDURES: - Fuel Handling and Storage, Equipment, Hazardous Matl., NEPA, etc.- Streamlined Customs Issues for Passenger & Cargo Operations (for international service), etc.

4. AVAILABILITY OF SPACEPORT LOCATIONS:- Investment in Compatible Spaceport Infrastructure in Multiple Locations to Create and Effective Network

5. MANAGING MILITARY AND COMMERCIAL OPERATIONS WITHIN SPACEPORTS

6. POTENTIAL ITAR ISSUES

7. POINT TO POINT BUSINESS MODEL VALIDATION:- Showing Relative Advantages of Point to Point & Spaceports over Existing Cargo/Passenger Airports- Ability to Realize Time Savings from Pt to Pt (Reduce Travel Time from City Center to Spaceport)

Outside Spaceport Control: VEHICLES AND TECHNOLOGY TO DELIVER POINT TO POINT


Sample Technical Analyses and Results

GHoST Calculator of City Pair Vehicle Delivery Capabilities

y = 779142x-1

R2 = 10

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Payload Capability of PTP Vehicle

Baseline "Captured"

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Initial Economic Design Point ($800/kg, 460 kg, NPV = -$7.1 B )

NPV > 0NPV < 0

Financial Analysis for Notional PTP Service

Discrete Event Simulation Model of City Pair Delivery Time and Fleet Routing


Lessons Learned So Far

- SEI-C 2008 IAF paper --> Negative business case for initial sim assumptions- Caveat: market survey was very weak and notional, improvements called for- Caveat: limited city pairs and only “scheduled” service considered

1. Cargo Market May Not Be Large Enough By Itself

- Princeton Space Express Team --> Found positive NPV for combined market- Caveat: issues raised on some traffic and production assumptions

2. Passenger Market May Add Traffic, and Thus Lead to Economic Viability

- SEI-C Initial Findings --> SSBJ more competitive on routes it supports- Caveat: didn’t consider a two-vehicle tiered market approach

3. Supersonic Business Jet May Offer Advantages Over Hypersonic Vehicles on Some Routes


FastForward Study Group “Getting Faster” White Paper

• Product of the FastForward Study

Group

• Recognizes the national goal for

affordable, safe, and reliable access

to space as well as the aviation

industry’s goal of “getting faster”

• Outlines a case for establishing

future high-speed PTP as a critical

incremental step to achieve these

goals using commercial RLVs

• White paper released at ISPCS 2009

on October 21 and available for

public download

www.spaceworkscommercial.com/projects/fastforward


PTP Serves as an Incremental Stepping Stone to Low Cost Space Access


- Evolves from world-class industries within the U.S., notably: commercial and business aviation, and reusable single-site suborbital transport, with their inherent emphases on reliability, safety, and affordability

- Derives from an immediate market-driven need for faster global transportation services that will help sustain the critical transitional step of the plan

- Represents a true public / private partnership, with each entity bringing its own unique capabilities to the effort to reduce overall risk

- Is incremental by nature, with ample opportunities for commercial competition, synergies with other endeavors, and market development that help reduce peak annual expenses along the stepping stones of its evolution

- Sustains a strong and flexible domestic aerospace workforce to support synergistic commercial, civil, and military needs for both rapid global travel and space transportation

The white paper posits that there are several advantages related to incremental plan to leverage PTP to lead to low cost space access

Advantages of the Proposed Incremental Approach


• FastForward has conducted early research in this area, as have others, and we believe it to be promising. However, additional focus research is needed to produce an actionable set of study products:

- PTP markets for passengers and priority packages must be better understood and supported with statistically valid analysis

- Critical missing and enabling technologies must be identified- Aerospaceport needs must be prioritized - Key government roles must be established for various federal and state

agencies

• We urge the government to act quickly to commission this critical and necessary step toward meeting the country’s future space access needs

The white paper calls for a modest study, to be completed over the next year, to conduct the critical preliminary work necessary to

support a new incremental national strategy that will ultimately meet U.S. space transportation needs through the encouragement of

synergistic and transitional high speed, global point-to-point flight

Call for Near Term Action


SpaceWorks Commercial is a division of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) of Atlanta, GA. SpaceWorks Commercial seeks to create value-added partnerships with the emerging entrepreneurial space community as well as international space industry leaders. Key goals of this division include advancing innovative solutions to challenges in space development, space-based energy, and high-speed flight. SpaceWorks Commercial also participates in popular space prizes.

For more information on the FastForward Study Group, contact Dr. John Olds, CEO of SEI ([email protected]) or Mr. Dominic DePasquale, Director of Washington DC Operations for SpaceWorks Commercial ([email protected]).

Study Host Organization: SpaceWorks Commercial
