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Solar In the U.S. The Big Picture Shayle Kann Vice President, Research Greentech Media September 14, 2013

Fresh Energy's 2013 Power Breakfast | Shayle Kann: Solar in the U.S.: The Big Picture

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The first event of a three-part Solar Opportunities Series, Fresh Energy’s annual Power Breakfast outlined new and exciting solar opportunities for business and property owners. Learn more at fresh-energy.org/solarseries.

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Page 1: Fresh Energy's 2013 Power Breakfast | Shayle Kann: Solar in the U.S.: The Big Picture

Solar In the U.S.The Big Picture

Shayle KannVice President, Research

Greentech Media

September 14, 2013

Page 2: Fresh Energy's 2013 Power Breakfast | Shayle Kann: Solar in the U.S.: The Big Picture

The Global Context

Page 3: Fresh Energy's 2013 Power Breakfast | Shayle Kann: Solar in the U.S.: The Big Picture

WWW.GTMRESEARCH.COM

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Global PV on the Rise

Source: GTM Research

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 -

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

251 361 503 926 1,171 1,667 2,469

5,709 7,284

17,843

27,901 30,011

Global PV Installed Capacity and Growth, 2000-2012

Annual Global PV Installations

Inst

alle

d C

apaci

ty (

MW

dc)

Page 4: Fresh Energy's 2013 Power Breakfast | Shayle Kann: Solar in the U.S.: The Big Picture

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Driven Largely by Plummeting Panel Prices

Source: GTM Research

Page 5: Fresh Energy's 2013 Power Breakfast | Shayle Kann: Solar in the U.S.: The Big Picture

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What Drove Such Rapid Growth?

Source: GTM Research

Page 6: Fresh Energy's 2013 Power Breakfast | Shayle Kann: Solar in the U.S.: The Big Picture

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A Market in Transition

Page 7: Fresh Energy's 2013 Power Breakfast | Shayle Kann: Solar in the U.S.: The Big Picture

The U.S. Solar Market

Page 8: Fresh Energy's 2013 Power Breakfast | Shayle Kann: Solar in the U.S.: The Big Picture

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We’ve Come a Long Way

Source: GTM Research/SEIA® U.S. Solar Market Insight TM

Page 9: Fresh Energy's 2013 Power Breakfast | Shayle Kann: Solar in the U.S.: The Big Picture

WWW.GTMRESEARCH.COM

Source: GTM Research/SEIA® U.S. Solar Market Insight TM

Residential Leasing

But Growth Has Been Concentrated

Page 10: Fresh Energy's 2013 Power Breakfast | Shayle Kann: Solar in the U.S.: The Big Picture

Reasons for Excitement

Page 11: Fresh Energy's 2013 Power Breakfast | Shayle Kann: Solar in the U.S.: The Big Picture

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1) Cost Reductions Still To Come

Page 12: Fresh Energy's 2013 Power Breakfast | Shayle Kann: Solar in the U.S.: The Big Picture

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2) Moving Beyond State Incentives

California PV Installations, 1H 2013

Source: GTM Research/SEIA® U.S. Solar Market Insight TM

No State Incentives

Page 13: Fresh Energy's 2013 Power Breakfast | Shayle Kann: Solar in the U.S.: The Big Picture

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Who Can Invest in Solar: 1975-2008

Buy Rooftop Solar 2.5 Million HouseholdsBuy

3) The Democratization of Solar Investment

Page 14: Fresh Energy's 2013 Power Breakfast | Shayle Kann: Solar in the U.S.: The Big Picture

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Who Can Invest in Solar: 2009-2010

Buy Rooftop Solar, Lease Rooftop Solar

Buy Rooftop Solar 2.5 Million Households

5.5 Million Households

Buy

Lease

3) The Democratization of Solar Investment

Page 15: Fresh Energy's 2013 Power Breakfast | Shayle Kann: Solar in the U.S.: The Big Picture

WWW.GTMRESEARCH.COM

Who Can Invest in Solar: 2011-2012

Buy Rooftop Solar, Lease Rooftop Solar,Invest in Community Solar

Buy Rooftop Solar 2.5 Million Households

5.5 Million Households

11.1 Million Households

Buy

Lease

Lease

3) The Democratization of Solar Investment

Page 16: Fresh Energy's 2013 Power Breakfast | Shayle Kann: Solar in the U.S.: The Big Picture

WWW.GTMRESEARCH.COM

Who Can Invest in Solar: 2013-?Buy Rooftop Solar,Lease Rooftop Solar, PACE Finance Solar,Invest in Crowdfunded Solar,Invest in Community Solar, Buy Solar MLPs,YieldCos, REITs, Buy Solar Securities

Buy Rooftop Solar, Lease Rooftop Solar,Invest in Community Solar

Buy Rooftop Solar 2.5 Million Households

5.5 Million Households

11.1 Million Households

73.0+ Million Individuals

Buy

Invest

Lease

Lease

3) The Democratization of Solar Investment

Page 17: Fresh Energy's 2013 Power Breakfast | Shayle Kann: Solar in the U.S.: The Big Picture

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So: Big Things to Come

Source: GTM Research

Page 18: Fresh Energy's 2013 Power Breakfast | Shayle Kann: Solar in the U.S.: The Big Picture

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Thank You!

Shayle Kann

Vice President, Research

Greentech Media

[email protected]