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Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd
Accelerate Your Future
FutureTrendsImpactonNordea
StrategicOpportuni6es60secondpitches
-Asifyouaretheboardofthebankwithanexternaladvisor-
ALLBIGTRENDSARERELATED
WhatwillNordea(andyourcompe6tors)looklikein2020?
to waste on things you do not believe in
LifeistooShort
Whocaresaboutthenewstrategy?
teamsandcustomersneedtofeelitmaOers
Whyshouldtheygrow?
AllleadershipcomesfromVISIONofabeOerfuture
What customers really want
Mostdebatesaboutfuturestrategy
areabout6mingandfocus
http://images.google.fr/imgres?imgurl=www.linuxgazette.com/issue42/gm/images/radar.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.linuxgazette.com/issue42/gm/musings.html&h=432&w=576&prev=/images?q=radar+screen&svnum=10&hl=fr&lr=&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&sa=N
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Benchmarking is toxic to risk management
LawsuitswillbefarlargerthanFines
Typetoentertext
Strategies often overtaken by events World can change faster than you can hold a board meeting
Panama
Agility requires
Simplicity
Yet many trends changing more
slowly than people think
Cash growing - bank branches continue -
music, fashions, food - homes look the same,
where are all the robots?
WGP2005-2014(%,constantprices)
2% inflation target likely to be discarded
VietnamGDP1985-2011
$3.4trillion
$3.4trillionownedbyChinesesovereignwealthfund
$2.4trillion
Reserves
ONEWORDwilldrivethe
future
The future is aboutEMOTION
44
Greatcustomerexperiences
MysteryShopping
!?!
Pop-uppagesPaidlis6ngsSMSadvertsYouTubeAds
AutoplayVideosFillformtogainaccess
Digital Control
85% world living in emerging markets
in 10 years
1% own 50%
1 billion will migrate in 30 years
Europe Dying 4 couples to produce single great-grand child
!58
Science,technologyengineering,maths
MostSTEMgraduatesinemergingmarkets
ChinaandIndiadominate
STEMdegreesincludingpost-graduate/PhDs
Can we stop ageing ?
PigsteethgrowninsideratsMicegrownewteethfromnervecells/gum
Grow New Teeth
Repair Heart / Brain with stem cells
Slowornoageinginanimals->pensions Japanwomengain15minutesoflifeexpectancyeveryhour
Rockfish, Turtles, some Whales
No signs of getting old
TRIBES
TEAMS
GROUPS2.3 million customer meetings a year
with over 10 million customers
1trillionpagesamonth
Tribalismisoneofthemainreasonswhysomanymergersandacquisi6onsfailto
delivervalue
People love Cities and Offices
Teleworking Only 2.5% of US workers are exclusively
home-based
!77
Would recommend you to a friend ?
90% all global data
generated in last 2 years
BigDataandLiOleData
Predicting Fraud
Little Data often
matters most
missing you
!86
AcrossEU,10grocerscapture50%ofsales
World too small for more than:
2 airline manufacturers3 mobile operating systems
10 large pharma5 large auto companies
Scale - Innovation Speed
Is the bank large enough for the future ? Eat or be Eaten or more Strategic Mergers
Risks from
post-merger paralysis
Almost all bank IT
spend is on legacy, compliance, security
impossible to keep pace with customers
Why old outsourcing story in India nearly over
NearshoringBoom
Most online sales will be
MOBILE
Loca6onMarke6ng
isnextBIG
Over4000road
Goldstandard:
103
Kenya-17mcustomers $9bnpa->33%GDP Tanzania9mpeople 35na6onlinksviaHomeSendHub
105
Payments to home by migrants
are driving Innovation
Free mobile devicescalls / web / TV / games / payHigher income model
201020132015
TelcoBanks
Time at bank teller cut from 4 to 1 minute
Internet of Things
90%MicrosolR&D
CLOUD
112
InternetofThings-BigData-Cloud180bnspamemailsaday
600mnewviruses,malware,trojansayear>220mpeoplesdetailslostinsingleaOack70%largecorpora6onshavebeenhacked
100,000aOacksanhouronUSNavyParalysisofEstoniagovernmentin2007
WorriesaboutUS,Russia,Chinapenetra6on
Regulatory Swings
eg Capital Adequacy / ROI
Public pressure v Reality
$40 Trillion Green Tech Boom driven by oil price, cost cuts, green activism
Shale gas 33% US supplies
3.3m US jobs $468bn pa + more oil
produced than Saudi by 2020
200 years global supply Up from 60 years in 5 years
120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day 7,000 times total power useQUEBECfromARIZONAMOSCOWfromSAHARA
Solarcellgenera6onparity
SolarCells$/waO1990-2015
subsidies
PriceParity
120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day 7,000 times total global power use Power Moscow from Libyan Desert
40% EU power = wind by 2050 Surplus wind to hydrogen - to methane ?
GermanyPowerSurplus
30 million acres lost
EU 5% gasoline and diesel from food
25% of 2010 US grain fuel
AllleadershipcomesfromVISIONofabeOerfuture
Tdo things you believe in sell things you believe in
Beyond Compliance
Truth about Retail FundsNext miss-selling scandal? Most actively managed funds fail to beat tracker funds,
when all charges deducted Most fund managers I have surveyed (total > $1 trillion
under management) are reluctant to invest own money in own retail funds unless they are required to, and reluctant to recommend own funds to family / friends
50% of us sell funds of funds but only 5% of us invest in them
Ethical questions since whole purpose of active management is to protect wealth, not erode it (as is most likely outcome under current business models)
LessonfromNon-ProfitFounda6ons
Connectwithallthepassionspeoplehaveandtheywillfollowyoutotheendsoftheearth,
promotewhatyoudowithpride,andmayevenbewillingtoworkfor
youfornexttonothing
BraindumpWhatstruckyoumost?Whathasbeenlelout?
HeatMap-yourviewofthefutureOneBigThing?
Areaforinnova6on/ac6on?
EU20,000Challenge4wordphraseisbasis
ofallmarke6ng,mo6va6on,change
managementandleadership
Build a Better World individual family community world
RESOURCES
>500 videos of Keynotes http://www.youtube.com/pjvdixon
Global Trends Website: http://www.globalchange.com
http://www.youtube.com/pjvdixonhttp://www.globalchange.com
LowHangingFruit
RetailcustomerexperienceBusinesscustomerexperience
PrivatebankingWholesalebanking
StreamlineinternalprocessesHR/people
Mergers/bigjointventures