FUTURING FOR THE FINANCIAL INDUSTRY

Futuring for the Financial Industry

Matthew Blum, Chris Emerson, Oren Kidanian, Martin Moy, and Sherae Swinson

Team Seven

Binghamton University

MGMT 311-91

Professor S. Dionne

December 3, 2013

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Abstract

Our STEEP analysis thoroughly examined the future effects on the financial industry observing

social, technological, economical, environmental, and political trends. Our social trend looked at

reverse brain drain in emerging BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) countries; this trend shows

that immigration to developed countries will decrease, helping the economic rise of these

emerging countries. This trend will limit the growth of established countries and rapidly grow

the economies of emerging markets and their respective industries. Our technological trend

looked at the growing technologies in the health care field. Innovations in machine learning will

specialize medical treatments for patients, as well as increase the efficiency of health care. The

growth of health care technologies will increase jobs in the technology and pharmaceutical

industries, in addition to rapid growth in all areas of the health care industry. Our economic trend

focused on the changes that will take place in the education industry and how this will create

more STEM (science, technology, engineering, and math) jobs. An environmental trend looks at

the effects and benefits of “going green”. By laying out a business model, we were able to show

how increased interest in preserving the environment impacts the financial industry, and our

economy as a whole. Our political trend focuses on the relationships within the United States

government and how they need to change. By eliminating division among our government, the

entire country will be able to function much more efficiently.

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Social

One of the reasons why immigrants leave their home countries is due to the lack of

opportunities in their home nations. Throughout history, people would immigrate to developed

countries such as the United perceived to be lands of opportunity due to their robust economies.

The tide is turning as people are returning to their home countries for opportunities that are

unavailable in a developed world where financial crisis has tested economic stability and welfare

(Llana, Ford, Marquand, 2012, pg. 1). Although financial crisis has affected all nations,

emerging economies have recovered quicker than developed countries. Skilled workers are

boosting the emerging nations as Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRIC) - amongst countless

others- in what is known as the reverse brain drain or a brain gain for beneficiaries.

BRIC countries are becoming global powers and are beginning to surmount the

traditional developed nations such as Germany, Japan, France, and the United Kingdom through

their continued economic growth. Knowledge is no longer a monopolized asset as highly skilled

workers are returning to their homelands in droves, a number that has risen ten-fold since the

beginning of the century (Llana et al., 2012, pg. 2). This can be attributed to financial incentives

and opportunities that attract immigrants back to their homelands. Initiatives started by BRIC

countries include extensive recruiting of those who left, tax exemptions and grants for

research/business development (Moodie, 2011).

Bangalore, India –India’s own version of Silicon Valley- is recruiting highly skilled

employees; especially those with Western educations. As an emerging innovative power, the

“city is attracting the brain-drain generation back to its shining lights” (Bosch, 2013). This is

leading to a flow of people returning to India looking to satisfy the demand for IT-specialized

employees.

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What seem to be most troubling are the potential detrimental effects this brain gain can

have on developed nations. For example, a myriad of Europeans are uprooting their families and

seeking out opportunities abroad. The amount foreigners legally living in Brazil skyrocketed

more than 50% from 2010 to 2012 (Llana et al., 2012, pg. 2). To put this statistic in context, this

now makes Brazil a country of immigration after decades as being one of emigration. If

developed economies lose a highly skilled workforce, they are at a significant competitive

disadvantage to emerging economies. "It is already costing America economic growth. Over

time you will see fewer and fewer start-ups in America and more in Asia and Latin America,”

says Mr. Papademetriou (Llana et al., 2012, pg. 3).

One of the reasons why immigrants go back to their home countries is the lure of

accelerated professional growth and high demand for skills. According to the Kauffman

Foundation, “87% of Chinese and 62% of Indians saw better career opportunities in their home

countries than in the US” (Moodie, 2011). This signifies that job prospects in the United States

are low compared to emerging nations. Since jobs help draw foreign immigration, foreigners are

not coming to developed nations in the droves that they once did decades ago.

In a study done by Duke University, it was found that foreign nationals were named as

inventors/co-inventors of a quarter of WIPO patent applications filed from the United States

seven years ago. Nearly seventeen percent of international patent applications had an inventor/

co-inventor of Chinese heritage and 13.7 percent had an inventor/co-inventor of Indian heritage

(Wadhwa, 2011). This signifies is that nearly a third of American innovation can be attributed to

foreigners residing here in the US. This statistic omits foreigners from other nations and residing

in the U.S.; most likely foreigners have an even greater impact on innovation than just the third

from China and India. If a significant portion of the U.S. patent innovators will soon leave the

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nation, the flight of these skills abroad and will be detrimental to the US economy. Americans

will not produce the amount of inventions that they are accustomed to and domestic investment

will plummet. This loss in economic trust will cause economic instability with businesses losing

market share to foreign businesses. Employees will receive less pay and many will lose their

jobs.

Developed nation’s economic growth pales in comparison with those emerging

economies of China and India. Society in emerging nations will undoubtedly change drastically.

“Becoming a recipient of brain gain implies new responsibilities that often cause growing pains,

such as preventing human rights abuses of illegal workers or discouraging new xenophobic

discourse” (Llana et al., 2012, pg. 3). Governments will have to start cracking down on

employers who do not abide by new legislation supporting employee rights. Child laborers will

no longer be allowed and safety regulations will be improved dramatically. What countries such

as the United States need to do is to reform immigration policies in order to get these skilled

students and workers to stay. The reason why these students and highly skilled workers are as

highly sought after is due to the fact that they make “substantial contributions to large swaths of

the U.S. economy and academic research, and their departure is keenly felt” (Moodie, 2011).

Technological

In the next ten years, the medical technologies field will be completely revolutionized.

Through the fast growing innovations in machine learning, computers will be able to analyze and

understand a person's body and their health problems to create personalized medicine. These

learning computers will be incorporated into health care technologies and will be available in

hospitals, doctor's offices, and even in one's home. These new and advanced health care

technologies will be able to be installed in homes and act as personal doctors that can diagnose

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and treat an illness. This option of home health care is targeted towards continually ill patients,

patients with certain diseases that require constant attention, and the elderly. These new medical

machines will be personalized to its owner’s body type and will have access to all of the owner’s

medical records and known activities. This will be possible because all big data now abundantly

available will be combined with computer processing language to create this learning technology

that can analyze a person’s body to make a diagnosis, as well as treat it. In addition to medical

machines being available in a person's home, people can be hooked up to small medical devices

all day that constantly monitor their health and notify their doctor if a health threat occurs; this

new adaptation is designed for people with a high health risk or those who want constant

monitoring.

As computers and medical machines advance to the point where they can thoroughly

analyze an individual's body, new prescription drugs will be created that are specifically designed

to fit a person’s DNA and thus cure their ailments. Unlike drugs that are only designed to cure

general symptoms, these new drugs will be made to specifically combat all of the patient's

specific health problems, leading to a much faster recovery rate. With this new technology,

doctors will be able to quickly survey a patient's body, find the problem, and be able to write a

prescription for a drug that will cure that specific ailment.

The innovations in machine learning will transform mental health treatments as well.

Computers with large databases will be able to treat and interact with patients who suffer from

mental illnesses and disorders too. These computers will be able to interact with people just as

any other human would, but will also have access to all available data. Because computers will

be constantly learning, computer to human interaction will be just like human-to-human

interaction, but with computers being able to access and apply any kind of information available.

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While the increase in the use of automated health technology would in theory decrease

the amount of jobs available for doctors, nurses, therapists, and many other medical field

employees, the operation of these machines, the necessity for expert knowledge, as well as the

growing senior population that is expected to be living will cause a continued need for these

employees. The amount of jobs in the health care industry, especially the technology and

pharmaceutical sectors, will definitely grow as the demand for these new technologies and

prescription drugs increase. The health care industry is already on track to create 5.6 million new

jobs by the year 2020, a rate that is growing twice the amount the national economy is (Berman,

2012). The technology industry will see significant growth as new innovations are made in

interactive computers and machines, and the pharmaceutical industry will also grow as people

become more dependent on prescription drugs that will be able to be made specifically for each

individual person. As the jobs available in the health care industry grow, higher levels of

education will certainly be required, expanding that industry as well.

Due to these advances in medical technologies, health care costs will increase because of

increased personalization and the emergence of new technologies that will be implemented in the

treatment of patients. As health care costs rise, insurance companies will bear a greater burden,

especially after the passing of the Obamacare Act that set out to hold insurance companies to

higher standards when it came to consumer health care (U.S. Department of Health Care).

Insurance companies will also be affected because of the changing health care costs, medical

technology innovation, and the risks now associated with machines treating people in their

homes. This trend will also lead to the health care industry being dominated by a few big

technology and pharmaceutical companies. As the health care industry becomes overrun by these

big technology and pharmaceutical companies, they will be heavily taxed, creating more revenue

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for the government. The United States already has the largest health care services market in the

world, accounting for $1.75 trillion in revenues in 2010, and employing 14 million U.S. workers.

The U.S. also leads the world in medical technology production, with a market value over $110

billion in 2012, 38% of the medical technologies industry (U.S. Department of Commerce). As

these medical technology and pharmaceutical companies gain power in their industries,

lawmakers will create heavy restrictions and policies that the companies must follow, as they

become responsible for the sake of people's lives. These huge companies that will dominate the

health care industry will affect that stock market, as they will become some of the most coveted

stocks by investors. Employment rates in the science and technology fields will certainly rise,

creating a rise in interest rates. As medical technology is continually improved, it will create

more jobs as many industries will be growing to support the increased demand for health care.

Economics

Science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) jobs over the years have

been growing in demand and it will continue to grow in the coming years. Consumer spending is

one significant driver of the economy. The amount consumers spend depends on the amount the

money they have in their pockets and the confidence they have in economic system. If an

individual has a job in the STEM field, they will make more money as there is a high demand for

highly skilled professionals in these disciplines; especially in the United States as there is

knowledge. Such workers will have excess money to spend, which thus would help stimulate the

economy. STEM jobs are going to be the driving force of the economy and will allow the United

States to gain more of a competitive edge over other nations. The government and the people

believe that STEM jobs are the future so more people are spending more money in the field of

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education. As more money is spent on STEM education and job training, this in turn will create

the plethora of more job opportunities that this countries desires.

STEM jobs will always be in high demand and will have good pay, which is promising

for the nation’s future economic development. According to information released by Georgetown

University (Department of Labor, Georgia), STEM jobs got more pay than all other jobs by $8 to

18 per hour. They also earn twenty six percent more that non-STEM workers. From 2006 to

2011, the number of total people in the STEM occupations increased by six percent; the

employment for the science and engineering fields in particular increased upwards of twenty

percent. “In 2010, STEM workers earned twenty-six percent more than non-STEM workers”

(U.S. Department for Professional Employees). Since such professionals are earning higher

paychecks, their higher income allows them to purchase more consumer goods as they have

more discretionary spending; thus, they have a greater economic impact. When the economy

grows, businesses grow as people are will to spend more because they have more. While

businesses are growing, people are more likely to invest in those businesses since they have the

ability to invest in companies that they now have the extra income for such these investment

opportunities that allow companies to grow allows more employees to be hired; more employees

to obtain pay raises, as well as the government being able to gain more tax revenue. Perhaps

most importantly, businesses will be able to allocate more funds to put towards innovative

projects to help bolster the growth of their company and thus the economy.

The government believes that the STEM jobs will lead the way to a brighter future for the

economy. “As our economy continues to recover, STEM jobs represent a significant opportunity

for economic growth, Said Chairman Casey” (Casey, 2012). The unemployment rate for STEM

workers was 5.5 percent in 2009 while non-STEM worker was at 10 percent in 2010 (Casey,

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2012). What this showcases is the fact that STEM jobs have nearly half the unemployment rate

as non-STEM occupations. “BLS projects job growth of 22 percent for STEM occupations as a

whole between 2004 and 2014” (U.S. Department of Labor). Workers in the fields of science,

technology, engineering, and mathematics have more stability in their job status allowing them

to not have worry as much about being fired or not being able to find work opportunities.

Ultimately, this will cause more people to invest and to go in the STEM field and get a job.

The government is spending nearly 3.5 billion dollars on STEM jobs, and out of that

funding they are spending most of it on STEM degrees (National Science and Technology

Council). In the STEM degrees that they are investing in, they are investing in postgraduate work

(National Science and Technology Council). This shows that the government believes that the

STEM field is worth investing in and is the future. About 15 million people that live in the

United States hold at least a bachelor’s degree in STEM discipline (Charette, 2013). “The

Georgetown study estimates that nearly two-thirds of the STEM job openings in the United

States, or about 180 000 jobs per year, will require bachelor’s degrees” (Charette, 2013). People

now need a master’s degree to get a job or to be promoted beyond a certain point; these master’s

programs can be quite expensive but it pays off in the long run. It costs more than bachelors, but

it gives the individual a completive advantage because it is perceived that the more education

one has, the more a candidate is qualified for a position and potential professional advancement.

Workers with postgraduate degrees can give companies the competitive edge because this would

lead companies to become more creative and innovative. With businesses trying to come up with

the new best thing, people become more open to invest in businesses because the company has

more and better resources to become successful. The stakeholders would be making money

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because they hired highly educated people that would come up with a new product that would

take the company to the next level.

STEM jobs are going to be a significant part of the future economy. The government

believes that STEM jobs are the future, which can be attributed to the fact that they are heavily

investing in that field. The government feels the money they put in will have positive

ramifications in the future and make it more appealing for more people to go in the STEM field.

They believe that with more educated people in the STEM field; it will increase a company’s

competitive advantage and make it more appealing for people to invest in. Also the stakeholders

would make more money because people are willing to invest in the company.

Environmental

When we think about the environment, the phrase “Going Green” comes to mind. First,

what is “going green?” Going green is a philosophy for people to be aware of their environment

and make better decisions to protect the environment. As an ongoing trend, it has influenced the

way businesses conduct business as well as how consumers make decisions. Looking into the

future, what if everyone became environmentally conscious and acted upon the notion of going

green? How would the world begin to appear going forward?

Reflecting on this question, in the article, “What Would Happen to All the Animals If

Everyone Went Vegan,” Tuttle (2013) touched four key factors that apply to going green:

morality, demand, chain of events, and health. If people went vegan, there would be reduced

demand for meat leading to a chain of events. With lower demand for meat, animals would be

free and there would be less force breeding for mass production, which is a major contributor to

greenhouse gas emissions (Reynolds, 2013). People would be healthier physically and mentally;

while the reduction of animal slaughters for food consumption would relieve people’s conscious.

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Of course, if only a small amount of people were vegan, the drastic change as described would

not result, but it is the macro-orientation of the incremental changes of demand that affects the

way business works and the environment as a whole.

Analogous to going green, going green and vegan are both lifestyles people choose to

take. If consumers instill this mantra of “going green” into their lifestyle, demand for

conventional mass produced goods will decrease. From the supply and demand curve, the

decrease in demand will affect businesses leading to a decrease in price to attract price conscious

consumers. However, if consumers adhere to their values in going green, it will eventually

eliminate conventional methods. Consumers will only purchase foods that are organic and goods

that are seen as “green”. In so doing, people will feel healthier physically and mentally as

contributors to protecting the environment.

Unfortunately, not everyone is consciously aware of the going green movement. In the

article, “Scientist Discovers What Makes People Go Green,” Mulvey (2012) discusses research

on the association between personality traits and sustainable behavior (going green). This

research indicates that people with values in culture, respect, and trust in social responsibility

strongly correlates with sustainable behavior. Therefore, businesses must reach out to those

consumers and inform them about the environment, and marketing fits that role. According to the

article, “Green Customers Extremely Loyal to Brands,” the Shelton Group’s annual Eco Pulse

study regards green consumers as “early adopters and extremely brand loyal.” The study also

shows that businesses builds reputation by selling green products and consumers form brand

loyalty to those who aligns with their values (Tierney, 2013). In a marketing perspective, green

consumers are the opinion leaders for green goods and have impact on other consumers; hence,

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businesses not only form stronger relationships with consumers but also build a greener

community.

Apart from consumer decisions, recycling is one of the renowned ways in helping the

environment, but a current issue is people don’t naturally know how to recycle. The article,

“People Don’t Recycle Things That Look Like Trash,” Timmer (2013) discusses a research

project on people’s behavior for recycling paper. The conclusion is that people tend to recycle

paper that are normal sized, but treated everything else as trash. What we can learn from this is

that we cannot expect or rely on people to go green consciously, but with the help of

organizations in creating a clear system for recycling or going green universally, how we live

today will change dramatically in the next decade.

Moreover, according to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) 2011 Report, from

1990 to 2011, the percentage of waste recycled over waste generated from 1990 to 2011 more

than doubled, from approximately 16% to 35%. That is a huge progress but it doesn’t stop here.

The aim is to increase the efficiency; thus, demand for green jobs will increase, from

environmental engineers to services. According to the article, “The Facts on U.S. Green Job

Growth,” Schueneman (2013) states that “the green economy has been a leading driver of job

creation for several years now.” Report supports this, as there were 750,000 green jobs in 2008,

770,000 green jobs in 2010, 2 million green jobs in 2011, and onwards (Schueneman, 2013).

The negative response for going green is the costs. In the short term, costs for going

green may be high, but going green has always been about the long term. Frito-Lay is an

example of a company that benefited from a going green initiative. According the article, “Frito-

Lay Goes Green,” Frito-Lay spent 10 years in an effort to reduce their environmental footprint,

thus reducing 50 percent of their greenhouse gas emissions (Christian, 2011). More companies

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are discovering the benefits of going green such as reducing operating costs while attracting a

larger array of consumers. In the long run, it is foreseeable for green businesses to dominate the

market.

On a global scale, the UK launched the Green Investment Bank to finance green projects

(Jackson, 2012). The issue with climate change became a concern for the UK to think of a way to

implement green projects without financial risks. The Green Investment Bank’s goal is to slow

the progression of global warming by financing green projects, specifically for projects involving

renewable energy, waste processing, and infrastructure. This a significant step forward in the

finance world and it may influence other countries to launch their own green investment banks.

Political

Politics is a way for counties to exert their dominance over other nations. For the United

States to remain a powerhouse in the future, the U.S. must reevaluate its own political system. If

the U.S.’s two major political parties -Republicans and Democrats- agreed with each other more

often, than citizens would have more confidence and trust in their political systems. Having two

main political parties is not going to be popular in the future because of the way society is

changing. The recent government shutdown is proof that there are many problems for the

political parties in the future.

One step towards making sure the United States stays dominant in the future is that

legislation would be developed more efficiently by government officials as they would continue

to a work towards a common goal, as opposed to them working on opposing projects. For

instance, Democrats focus on community and social responsibility, and favor minimum wages

with progressive taxation (Democrats.org, 2011). But Republicans platform surrounds the idea of

one’s individual rights versus the growth of government power. Certain elements of our country

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such as the economy, environment, technological and social are main areas government officials

can focus their legislation on because the countries that are above others are prime in each one of

them. Of course there are going to be times where the government might disagree on an issue but

they will have similar and thoughtful ideas about issues such as welfare, healthcare or education.

These issues will be critical for our future since our population is getting older and our education

system is not competing with other powerful countries. Another important issue the government

would want to focus on is the job market or employment rate. No country can remain powerful if

their poverty level is too high.

If citizens see their government getting along with one another that will help create trust.

There has not been any confidence or trust in our government for a while so this would be a big

step for the United States. In this past year, the confidence level Americans have in their

government has been an all-time low. Trust in the government handling international or domestic

issues have been record breaking low as well (Wilke & Newport, 2013). With the government

shut down occurring in October, it shows that the Democrats and Republicans are disagreeing so

much that they cannot run the country without critical disagreements. This would scare citizens

because it makes the country look weak if the government officials are so busy competing with

each other. This sign of weakness drives away international investors as well, which helps the

government lose money. For example, the government lost two billion dollars in productivity

decline from the most recent shutdown (Rein, 2013). Funding is crucial for governments to be

successful since creating and implementing laws or legislation is expensive.

The United States has been losing international investors to other countries with

emerging markets over the last couple of years. Countries such as Brazil and China are the main

two that are taking away a lot of the United States’ international clients. From 2012 to 2013, the

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amount of money earned from foreign investments dropped twenty-eight percent. People do not

trust the economy in the U.S. as well as the tax policy, which is causing the government to lose a

lot of money and political power. Nancy McLernon, president and chief executive of the

Organization for International Investment, stated another reason why international funds have

been decreasing is “all of the political theatrics” in Washington (2013, Runningen). This shows

that international investors do look at how government officials are acting in office, so positive

behavior will result in more interested international investors. More investors mean the United

States will make a bigger gap between Brazil and China to maintain the lead in earning the most

in foreign investments. Keeping a lead will help maintain and improve the economy, which will

make the stakeholders very happy.

Discussion

Social, technological, economic, environmental and political trends will play a huge role

in shaping future society. Socially, there will be this reverse brain drain throughout the world as

highly skilled workers return their homelands because of strict immigration policies and

abundant opportunities abroad. For technological, we foresee specialized machines for healthcare

that could read an individual’s body and make personalized medicine on a readymade basis. The

STEM field will be the driving force of future jobs and will lead to a more robust and successful

economy due to the increase in education spending related to such. “Going green” is going to be

beneficial for the corporate world because of corporate responsibility and the fact that it brings in

more consumers. Bipartisanship is going to be the future as lawmakers will come together to

further promote legislation in a more effective manner than it is today.

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U.S. Department for Professional Employees. (2012). The Stem Workforce: An Occupational Overview. Retrieved from website: http://dpeaflcio.org/wp-content/uploads/The-STEM-workforce-2012.pdf.

Runningen, R. (2013, October 31). Obama Makes Attracting Foreign Investment Target of U.S. Effort. Retrieved from http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-31/obama-makes-attracting-foreign-investment-target-of-u-s-effort.html.

Schueneman, Tom. (2012, October 12). The Facts on U.S. Green Job Growth. Retrieved from http://theenergycollective.com/globalwarmingisreal/123051/facts-us-green-job-growth.

Wadhwa, V. (2009, December 8). Is a US Brain Drain on the Horizon? Yale Global. Retrieved from http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/us-brain-drain-horizon.

Wilke, J., & Newport, F. (2013, September 13). Fewer Americans Than Ever Trust Gov't to Handle Problems. Retrieved from http://www.gallup.com/poll/164393/fewer-americans-ever-trust-gov-handle-problems.aspx.

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