Global print markets to 2016

Global Print Markets to 2016Pira Executive Retreat, Global Print Markets, Nice, France, 6-7 October 2011

Adam Page, Business Manager, Reports and Consultancy, Pira International

Pira International, Cleeve Road, Leatherhead, Surrey, KT22 7RU

[email protected]+44 (0)1372 802000

mailto:[email protected]

Agenda

Global Print Market Megatrends Print Drivers End-use Sector trends Print Process trends Regional trends Outlook

The Global Print Market

3

Global Print Market, $ billion, constant (2010) prices & exchange rates

2006

2008

2009

2010

% change, 2009-10 2011 % change, 2010-11

2016 CAGR (%), 2011-16

804 822 777 785 1.0 791 0.8 845 1.3

Source: Pira International

Megatrends

Demographic trends Economic trends Education Print media and advertising Communications Postal trends Environment

4

5

Changes in population profile by region, 2010-50

Geographic region2010 2050

0-14 15-59

60-69

>70 Total, millions

0-14 15-59 60-70 >70 Total, millions

World 26.4 61.3 5.9 6.5 7,001 19.7 55.3 10.0 15.1 9,709

More developed regions 15.8 59.2 9.8 15.2 1,289 15.2 47.1 11.2 26.5 1,434

Less developed regions 28.8 61.7 5.0 4.5 5,712 20.4 56.7 9.8 13.1 8,275

Least developed countries 40.0 54.4 3.2 2.4 836 28.9 59.6 6.1 5.3 1,745

Less developed regions, excluding least developed countries

26.8 63.0 5.3 4.9 4,876 18.2 55.9 10.7 15.2 6,530

Less developed regions, excluding China 31.9 59.9 4.3 3.9 4,321 22.1 58.4 8.9 10.7 6,847

Africa 40.1 54.0 3.4 2.5 1,027 30.3 59.0 5.7 5.0 2,214

Asia 25.6 63.4 5.6 5.4 4,211 16.7 55.6 11.3 16.3 5,374

Europe 14.8 60.2 9.5 15.4 769 14.5 46.2 12.1 27.2 786

Latin America & the Caribbean 27.5 61.3 5.3 5.9 599 16.3 54.8 10.7 18.2 792

Northern America 19.0 59.4 9.0 12.5 358 17.2 50.4 9.9 22.6 483

Oceania 23.4 59.0 7.7 9.9 38 19.2 52.7 9.2 18.8 59

Source: World Population Prospects (United Nations)

6

Top 25 mega-cities,1950-2025

Country Urban agglomeration Population (millions)

1950 1975 2000 2025

Japan Tokyo 11.27 26.61

34.45

37.09

India Delhi - 4.43 15.73

28.57

Brazil São Paulo 2.33 9.61 17.10

21.65

India Mumbai (Bombay) 2.86 7.08 16.09

25.81

Mexico Ciudad de México (Mexico City) 2.88 10.69

18.02

20.71

US New York-Newark 12.34

15.88

17.85

20.64

China Shanghai 4.30 5.63 13.22

20.02

India Kolkata (Calcutta) 4.51 7.89 13.06

20.11

Bangladesh Dhaka - - 10.28

20.94

Pakistan Karachi - 3.99 10.02

18.73

Argentina Buenos Aires 5.10 8.74 11.85 13.71

US Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana 4.05 8.93 11.81 13.68

China Beijing - 4.83 9.76 15.02

Brazil Rio de Janeiro 2.95 7.56 10.80

12.65

Philippines Manila - 5.00 9.96 14.92

Japan Osaka-Kobe 4.15 9.84 11.17 11.37

Egypt Al-Qahirah (Cairo) 2.49 6.45 10.17

13.53

Nigeria Lagos - - 7.23 15.81

Russia Moskva (Moscow) 5.36 7.62 10.00

10.66

Turkey Istanbul - - 8.74 12.11

France Paris 6.52 8.56 9.74 10.88

South Korea Seoul - 6.81 9.92 -

China Chongqing - - - 11.07

Indonesia Jakarta - 4.81 8.39 10.85

US Chicago 5.00 7.16 8.33 9.94

Global Print Drivers

Reduction in run length / shorter lead times Cost reduction pressure Metrics Full colour, totally variable printing. Versioning, personalisation and fully variable data Web-to-print systems Technology development Digital print

7

End-use Sectors

8


End-use Sectors – market share

9


10

Brand owners want innovative packaging and better graphics to gain competitive edge and enhance shelf appeal

Flexible packaging

Gravure and flexo dominate Some offset and screen – Digital is small, fast growing Many converters, brand owners and retailers do not

understand the capabilities of digital As digital productivity improves, economic break-even

points are at higher run lengths Digitally printed flexibles:

$1bn by 2015

11

12

Books is a low growth area outside India and a handful of other less well developed markets, and under threat from digital readers

Book industry trends

E-book challenges for publisher. Digitization and copyright Electronic media Marketing innovations Long Tail business model Changes in trade patterns are impacting upon book

production in Europe. Print and book manufacturing technology is developing.

13

14

Opportunity for on-demand printing (and its flexibility and personalisation capability) in in magazine production

Magazine trends

15

Magazine advertising’s historic and forecast shares of above-the-line media sales in Europe, 2003-2012 (% share by value)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

% s

har

e b

y va

lue

Source: Pira International Ltd from World Magazine Trends

16

Newspapers face soaring newsprint prices, slumping ad sales, loss of much classified advertising and drops in circulation

Newspaper trends

17

Newspaper advertising’s historic and forecast shares of above-the-line media sales in Europe, 2003-2012 (% share by value)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

% s

har

e b

y va

lue

Source: Pira International Ltd from World Newspaper Trends

18

Average run lengths for many types of promotional print have fallen as

advertisers better target potential customers

Transpromo

Transpromo is growing strongly Targeted messages in transactional documents increase

response rates and improve customer retention Balance of cost reduction and trying to boost revenue

19

Print Processes

20


Print Processes – market share

21


Sheetfed trends

Still the dominant process but under pressure from digital Increased efficiencies of new technologies helping to

reduce unit prices Large format presses are becoming important for the

leading press suppliers Steady growth in the use of UV inks and varnishes

22

Web offset trends

Increasing completion for a diminishing market hitting commercial heatset

Significant developments in newspaper press technology Opportunities in hybrid web-inkjet

23

Flexo trends

Continuing improvements in quality High performance direct flexo CTP such as Esko’s HDI

Flexo have helped to push up the bar Benefiting from growth in packaging

24

Gravure trends

High volume publication rotogravure and packaging/label printing applications

Better quality on lower grades of paper than offset Complex and costly prepress stages to prepare cylinders

25

Electrophotography trends

Transition from analogue to digital Benefits from trends for shorter runs and faster turnaround Capability of totally variable print also helps boost demand

for commercial products. Relatively new sectors, such as photobooks, are becoming

established Book printing is seeing

strong growth, particularly with short run covers being transferred from offset

26

Inkjet trends

Increasingly important in a range of formats over the next five to ten years

Many benefits for printers and their customers Inkjet becoming part of an industrial decoration process

27

Screen trends

Declining rapidly as wide format inkjet takes over Some growth in Asia

28

Geographic Regions

29


Geographic Regions – market share

30


31

North American printing industry: companies and employment, 2000–08

Source: Pira International Ltd from various sources

Outlook

Rise of digital Megatrends having negative impact in many categories New technologies and new applications Growth in emerging markets

32

Thank you for listening.

Adam Page

Business Manager, Reports and Consultancy

Pira International

+44 (0) 1372 802 113

[email protected]

34

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