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MBA 6301 - Marketing Research MethodsHemopure - Go to Market StrategyMay 2010
Citation preview
Biopure Research Case
Prepared by: Christopher Serio
Presented to: Marty Lambrechts
Marketing Research Methods MBA 6301
May 12, 2010
2
TableofContents
Executive Summary ................................................................................................................ 3 Biopure Corporation .............................................................................................................. 4
Human Blood Market ............................................................................................................. 4 Hemopure Market Potential................................................................................................ 5
Competitive Landscape ......................................................................................................... 6
GoToMarket Strategy .......................................................................................................... 7 Conclusion: Hemopure Proposal........................................................................................ 8
Appendix A: Base, Best, and Worst Case – Hemopure Market Potential .............. 9 Appendix B: 3Year Revenue Model – Yearly Forecasted Totals...........................11
Appendix C: 3Year Revenue Model – Distribution and Staffing ...........................12
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Executive Summary
The Biopure Corporation should proceed forward with a launch of their human blood substitute product, Hemopure. This product has a market potential of approximately $9.5 billion annually and there is meager competition within the current industry. Biopure Corporation should go‐to‐market with a state‐wide California hospital launch over the next 36 months. This launch will cover 355 hospitals and will require 36 sales representatives. If successful, year three revenues are estimated at $100 million.
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Biopure Corporation Biopure Corporation is a biopharmaceutical firm founded in 1994, specializing in the ultra‐purification of proteins for human and veterinary use. The company recently finished the development of two new blood substitutes for market use. The first product is called Oxyglobin and is intended for veterinary use. Oxyglobin is currently set for launch. The other product is called Hemopure and is intended for the human blood transfusion market. Hemopure offers a much larger market potential however is two years from being set for launch. Additionally, Biopure is currently $200 million in R&D debt. For abbreviation, Oxyglobin may be referred to as Oxy and Hemopure will be referred to as Hemo. Some of the questions surrounding which product to support are:
• Product retail price difference – Hemo is priced significantly higher than Oxy. Per unit, Oxy costs $150 and Hemo costs $600 to $800.
• If Oxy is launched before Hemo is ready for market, what will happen to price expectation? How will this impact both sales and competition?
• Is there an intangible value gained from learning how to successfully go to market with Oxy?
• Which product has a greater impact on a pending IPO? The potential proven success of Oxy or the potential promised success of Hemo?
Human Blood Market Blood is the key to transporting oxygen to organs and tissues within the human body. Without oxygen, these organs and tissues would unable to survive. Red Blood Cells (RBCs) are the portion of blood responsible for oxygen transportation. Biopure is looking to capitalize as the first firm to synthesize RBCs sourced from the blood of cattle. The human body contains 10 pints of blood and one pint is the equivalent of one unit of RBCs. Humans can naturally compensate for the loss of three pints of blood. Beyond this, outside intervention is generally required in the form of a blood transfusion. This process entails directly injecting blood into the patient’s bloodstream. Some transfusion limitations are:
• Need for exact blood typing and cross matching between donor and recipient.
• Reduced oxygen‐carrying efficiency of stored RBCs. • Limited shelf life of RBCs. • The product needs to be refrigerated. • Disease transmission risk.
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In the current human blood market, 8 million people donate 14 million units of RBCs annually. Though this is a large number, per capita donation rates are low. Of the 75% of American’s that qualify as blood donors only 5% actually do. It is not uncommon for medical facilities and blood banks to experience periodic shortages of RBCs. Especially when considering that there are over 4,900 hospitals within the United States.1 Of the annually donated blood, 2.7 million units are discarded due to infectious risk or expired shelf life. Approximately 3.2 million units are transfused to patients facing chronic issues and deficiencies. The remaining 8.1 million units are used on patients suffering from acute blood loss. Additionally, there are approximately 1 million borderline cases where patients do not receive transfusions due to perceived risk or supply shortcomings. Hemopure Market Potential Biopure is limited most by their production capabilities. If annual production was not a factor in determining potential reach, then Hemo could have a base case annual sales potential of just under $9.5 billion. This market potential encompasses the demand for the entire United States and factors in the lost sales from borderline transfusion cases. Each year there are approximately 50,000 field trauma cases within the United States that require an immediate transfusion of blood. Each case receives an average of four units, calculating a total need of 200,000 field trauma units needed. Hospitals and clinics have three potential markets for RBCs: surgeries, chronic and ongoing cases, and previously borderline non‐transfusions. Among these, surgeries are the largest number of cases with 2.45 million occurring each year. Each surgical case requires approximate 3.22 units of transfused blood, calculating a potential market of 7.9 million units. Both chronic cases and borderline cases require and average of 2.13 units per occurrence. Annual case amounts for chronic and borderline are 1.5 million and 1 million, respectively. The market potential for units is just north of 5.3 million. Given the competitive landscape (analysis in subsequent section) and the price range for Hemopure, a base case scenario price of $700 per unit has been set for the below model. This gives Biopure annual potential market sales of just under $9.5 billion.
1 http://www.statehealthfacts.org/profileind.jsp?ind=394&cat=8&rgn=6
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Exhibit 1: Hemopure Base Case Market Potential
Hemopure Market Potential (Base Sales Price) RBC: Field Trauma Field Trauma 50,000 Average Units per Case 4.00 Units Needed in Field 200,000 RBC: Hospital & Clinic Surgeries 2,450,000 Average Units per Case 3.22 S&T Unit's Used 7,900,000 Chronic and Ongoing 1,500,000 Borderline Transfusions 1,000,000 Average Units per Case 2.13 C&B Unit's Used 5,333,333 Price per Unit $700 Total Market Potential $9,403,333,333
A full sheet with base, best, and worst case scenario’s can be found in appendix A.
Competitive Landscape The process of creating human blood substitutes is a combination of (1) extracting hemoglobin with RBCs, (2) purifying from infectious agents, and (3) modifying to prevent breakdown. The leading competitors are: Baxter International In 1996, Baxter was acknowledged as a leader within manufacturing and selling blood‐related medical products. Baxter International had a long history of product breakthroughs and successes. Their blood substitute, HemAssist, was expected to add to this portfolio. HemAssist was the first blood substitute to reach Phase 3 clinical trials. Construction of a production facility (annual 1 million units) was near completion and the pricing range is similar to Hemo. Northfield Laboratories Northfield had also recently entered Phase 3 trials with a blood substitute product called PolyHeme. The Northfield product is similar to Baxter’s in production and usage profile. Northfield is a smaller firm committed to developing a human blood substitute. Smaller facilities for production (300,00 units annually) still need to be finalized.
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Other competitors exist within the marketplace. However, they are several years behind in their development of a hemoglobin‐based product. The primary difference between Biopure and the two leading competitors is that both Baxter International and Northfield Laboratories rely on human blood and need to be frozen or refrigerated until used. Biopure’s Hemo sources from cattle and can be stored at room temperature until used. Biopure’s production levels for Hemo are estimated at 150,000 annually from approximately 10,000 cattle.
GoToMarket Strategy There are several avenues to consider for the go‐to‐market strategy. Given that Biopure is currently limited to 150,000 units of Hemopure annually, a more conservative launch needs to be assessed and proposed. Therefore, the most logical and cost effective go‐to‐market strategy should be within California. Once Hemopure is a proven success within the California marketplace an expansion of both capacity and reach should be proposed. Of the 4,900 hospitals within the United States, approximately 355 are located throughout California.2 Census data and approximate population breakdown:3
• Northern, CA – approximately 25% of population, 85 hospitals. • Central, CA – approximately 30% of population, 110 hospitals. • Southern, CA – approximately 45% of population, 160 hospitals.
A launch throughout Southern, California should be the primary focus through year one. The region will begin with two sales reps over the first five months with an average of one sales rep per 10 accounts. The average hospital has a demand of 210 RBC units per month with an annual demand of 2,500 total units. The market potential for the State of California is 900,000 units annually. Given current production capabilities of 150,000 units annually, the three‐year goal for Hemopure should be to capture 25‐35% of total blood transfusions. This offers a maximum revenue potential ranging from $90 million to $120 million annually for California alone. Each new account region should begin with two sales reps and should look to sign 10 new accounts within the first month. For each account region thereafter for the first 15 months sales reps should look to expand total accounts within their respective region by five per month. It is estimated that it will take from 12‐15 months to fortify the Hemopure brand reputation within a region, before account acquisitions can increase at a faster pace. The current revenue model shows the Hemopure sales price decreasing each of the first three years as the marketplace is saturated with additional competitors. According to the current model, by the end of year three Biopure will have a 36 2 http://www.statehealthfacts.org/profileind.jsp?ind=394&cat=8&rgn=6 3 http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/06000.html
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person sales force through 355 California hospitals for their Hemopure blood substitute product. For a three‐year breakdown of current distribution and sales projections please see Appendix B. Conclusion: Hemopure Proposal Biopure Corporation should concentrate their efforts on launching the Hemopure human blood substitute. This product has the greatest potential and highest possible reward. Given the data from both the case and external secondary resources, it is ideal for Biopure to launch this product in a regional, then statewide setting before considering a nationwide launch or ecommerce sales.
9
Appendix A: Base, Best, and Worst Case – Hemopure Market Potential
HemoPure Market Potential (Base Sales Price) RBC: Field Trauma # of Trauma cases 50,000 Average Units per Case 4.00 Units Needed in Field 200,000 RBC: Hospital & Clinic Surgeries or Trauma 2,450,000 Average Units per Case 3.22 S&T Unit's Used 7,900,000 Chronic and Ongoing 1,500,000 Borderline Transfusions 1,000,000 Average Units per Case 2.13 C&B Unit's Used 5,333,333 Price per Unit $700 Total Market Potential $9,403,333,333
HemoPure Market Potential (Best Sales Price) RBC: Field Trauma # of Trauma cases 50,000 Average Units per Case 4.00 Units Needed in Field 200,000 RBC: Hospital & Clinic Surgeries or Trauma 2,450,000 Average Units per Case 3.22 S&T Unit's Used 7,900,000 Chronic and Ongoing 1,500,000 Borderline Transfusions 1,000,000 Average Units per Case 2.13 C&B Unit's Used 5,333,333 Price per Unit $800 Total Market Potential $10,746,666,667
10
HemoPure Market Potential (Worst Sales Price) RBC: Field Trauma # of Trauma cases 50,000 Average Units per Case 4.00 Units Needed in Field 200,000 RBC: Hospital & Clinic Surgeries or Trauma 2,450,000 Average Units per Case 3.22 S&T Unit's Used 7,900,000 Chronic and Ongoing 1,500,000 Borderline Transfusions 1,000,000 Average Units per Case 2.13 C&B Unit's Used 5,333,333 Price per Unit $600 Total Market Potential $8,060,000,000
11
Appendix B: 3Year Revenue Model – Yearly Forecasted Totals
YEARLYFORECASTEDTOTALS Year1 Year2 Year3
So.CalAccounts 35 160 160Cen.CalAccounts 20 80 110Nor.CalAccounts 0 35 85
TotalAccounts 55 275 355
SalesPrice $700 $675 $650Units/Account 50 65 75AnnualUnits 18000 124150 305250
TotalRevenue $12,600,000 $83,801,250 $198,412,500
COGS $15,000,000 $15,000,000 $15,000,000MarketingBudget $40,000,000 $20,000,000 $20,000,000 So.CalReps 4 16 16Cen.CalReps 2 8 11Nor.CalReps 0 4 9TotalSalesReps 6 28 36 SalesForceSalary $6,600,000 $29,850,000 $61,650,000MarketingCollateral $1,200,000 $1,200,000 $1,200,000
TotalSalesExpense $7,800,000 $31,050,000 $62,850,000
Admin&Legal $2,000,000 $2,000,000 $2,000,000 TotalRevenue $12,600,000 $83,801,250 $198,412,500TotalExpenses $64,800,000 $68,050,000 $99,850,000
NetProfit ($52,200,000) $15,751,250 $98,562,500
12
Appendix C: 3Year Revenue Model – Distribution and Staffing
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