1. BoomBustBlog.com By Reggie Middletons Review next
slide:
2. Hindsight Is 20/20, And As Luck Has It Our Foresight On
Research in Motion Was Right On The Money Two Years
Ago............................In the early spring of 2010, while
trading at over $60 per share and still a darlingof the street and
corporate users, I warned that RIMM not only would not be ableto
compete with Android and iOS, but will be a phenomenal short. Well,
two yearslater, while trading in the low teens the RIMM research is
still pushing out profits.Research in Motion reported a minutes ago
and...RESEARCH IN MOTION 4Q REV. $4.19B, EST. $4.51BRESEARCH IN
MOTION 4Q ADJ. EPS 80C, EST. 81CRESEARCH IN MOTIO SAYS BALSILLIE
RESIGNS FROM BOARDRESEARCH IN MOTION SAYS JIM ROWAN TO LEAVERIMM
WONT GIVE QUANTIVE VIEWS DUE TO LONG TERM FOCUSRESEARCH IN MOTION
REVIEWING STRATEGIC OPPORTUNITIES
3. BoomBustBlog banking and tech research has been quite
prescient for 2010/2011.Subscribers who took advantage of this
deserve kudos. To wit, and as excerptedfromAnother RIMM Job? Its
Amazing How Many Institutions Dont Read The BoomBust! Lets try this
again: As Forecast Last Year and Clearly Demonstrated This Year,
Research in Motions Proble Research in Motion has been one of the
most successful tech shorts of this blogs history (thus far). We
first recommended a short last year and reiterated it in the fist
quarter of this year. Reference: BoomBustBlog Research Performs a
RIM Job! BoomBustBlogs Fundamental/Forensic Analysis of Research in
Motion Has Returned 2 This is a snapshot of RIMM as of the writing
of this article...
4. As you can see, the results have been spectacular,
particular if well timed puts have been put to use. In January I
posted: I personally see a clear leader in mobilecomputing becoming
visible in 2012. Usingoptions, a minimum of 2012 expiration OTMand
ATM contracts can be purchase at themost optimistic break points
demarcated bythe model above after being populated withassumptions
you feel most valid.I will have a proprietary BoomBustBlog option
modelavailable for download to paying subscribers by the end ofnext
week, at which time we will revisit the analysis above. A 50% drop
in price later... On that note, Bloomberg reports: RIM to Cut 2,000
Jobs as BlackBerry Loses Share to IPhone
5. I personally see a clear leader in mobile computing
becomingvisible in 2012. Using options, a minimum of 2012
expirationOTM and ATM contracts can be purchase at the most
optimisticbreak points demarcated by the model above after
beingpopulated with assumptions you feel most valid. I will have
aproprietary BoomBustBlog option model available for downloadto
paying subscribers by the end of next week, at which time wewill
revisit the analysis above.A 50% drop in price later... On that
note, Bloomberg reports:RIM to Cut 2,000 Jobs as BlackBerry Loses
Share to IPhone Googles Android has, by far, inflicted much more
damage to RIM than Apple ever has. This was easily seen over 13
months ago, at least by BoomBust Bloggers, referencing BoomBustBlog
Research Performs a RIM Job!...Page 5 of our Research in Motion
forensic analysis (released in the summer of 2010 - RIMM Forensic
Analysis and Valuation Professional & Institutional orRIMM
Forensic Analysis and Valuation Retail) clearly stated that while
weexpected RIMMs handset shipments to rise as a result of a rapidly
expandingsmartphone market, it will lose considerable market
share....
6. As it turns out, it appears that we were erred slightly to
the optimistic side with an 18%market share estimate for 2010. By
the end of the 3rd quarter, RIM has fallen to 15.3%according to
information calculated from IDC, and its decent has accelerated far
fasterthan even we (the bears) have anticipated a full 350 basis
points for the quarter. Thisis 6x the decent of last quarter and 7
x the decent of the quarter before that. It is quitesafe to assume
that they will be materially below this point at year end (the data
that wecrunch is lagged by a quarter). This market share loss is
most assuredly caused by theoutsized growth of Android, which I
will demonstrate in a minute. Below are chartsgenerated from an
updated version of the subscriber documentSmartphone Market Model
Blog Download Version:
7. As you can see above, for the full year of 2010 RIM has
trailed smartphone marketpenetration growth and that trail has
increased each and every quarter with the rate ofdecent rapidly
increasing.RIMs share price has benefited from anincreasing equity
market as well as theannouncement of new products. The
Torch,although possessive of redeeming newqualities, is essentially
still a generationbehind Apple and 1.5 generations behindAndroid.
SeeRIM Smart Phone Market Share, RIP? Research in Motion is
following the EXACT path we at BoomBustBlog had laid out for it
since the 3rd quarter of 2010.Those that chose to follow this short
recommendation had plenty of tools to assist in thedecision
making:
8. RIMM Forensic Analysis and Valuation Professional &
Institutional: a 45 pageanalysis of RIMM, its strengths, weaknesses
and prospects and probably the mosttthorough valuation that I know
of concerning this company.RIMM Forensic Analysis and Valuation
Retail: a 10 page abridged versionfor my retail clients, containing
all that you need to know including the marketscenario valuation
analysis (seeMany More Black Eyes for the Blackberry? A Complete
Forensic Analysis of Researc for more information). Smartphone
Market Model Blog Download Version: the interactive smart phone
market analysis and penetration model, includes data for HTC,
Apple, N Nokia and Research in Motion RIMM Multivariate Valuation
Mode : the big Kahuna, for professional and institutional
subscribers only. Please review the following overview of the
model.RIM Model Assumptions
9. RIM Model Factors Driving GrowthAfter populating the
assumptions tab,jump to the Factors Driving Growthtab and choose
the player whosemarket share and penetration datayou want to
populate the valuationmodel for the sake of comparison.The choices
are Nokia, RIMM,Apple, HTC and Others. This tabis annual data only.
RIM Model Quarterly Factors (driving growth)On the next tab, you
can do thesame as the previous (this tab isquarterly growth). Each
of thegrowth tabs has charts that are printand presentation
quality. Just besure to tell everyone where you gotthesis, data and
analysis from.....
