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Understanding emergent strategy
The ISS Triangle, reallyBiz strategy
IS strategyOrg’l strategy
Biz strategy
IS strategyOrg’l strategy
Biz strategy
Org’l strategy IS strategy
analysis Implementation
IS strategy --> Biz strategy
Biz strategy
Org’l strategy IS strategy
Implementation
simplemeasurements
Surfacing secrets
What should you be looking for?
Emphasize learning
Seek outliarsSeparate evaluation from information
Forsake BSchool teachings: What do *you* need to know?Focus on high-quality Y’s, not enforced X’s
What do you do with it when you find it?
Every single complex system is ‘intervention resistant’
The organization’s whirlpools
You need to see the whole system to be able to plan and act effectively
Turning measurement into insight
!Basic concepts"Expansion cycles"Equilibrium cycles"Time
!Archetypes
Expansion cycles: Money and interest
Capital
Interest
Accumulated interest
R
Interest rate
“The sky is the limit” vs. “This is going from bad to worse”
B
Equilibrium cycle:Managing shower temperature
Water temp.
Temperature difference
Faucet position
Desired temperature
“We’re going nowhere”
B
Time’s arrow
Managing the temperature of two showers
A’s water temperature
T Gap A
A’s faucet position
A’s desired temperature
B
B’s water temperature
T Gap B
B’s faucet position
B
B’s desired temperature
Two people in a shower
Archetypes
Archetypes
I want to grow
!Limits to growth*
!Sucess to the successful*
!Eroding goals
!Growth and underinvestment
I want to solve problems
!Unintended consequences*
!Shifting the burden*
!Accidental adversaries
!Escalation
Grow: Limits to growth
Grow: Limits to growth
If you don’t plan for limits, you’re planning for failure
Elimininate or reduce the limit
Be aware of equilibrium while growing
Question the need for growth
Grow: Sucess to the successful
Grow: Sucess to the successful
Rewarding good performance is often rewarding luck with initial conditions
Evaluate success metrics
Evaluate path towards success
Help unsuccessful instead of withdrawing resources
Solve: Unintended consequences
Solve: Unintended consequences
Quick solutions make problems worse
Focus on potential negative effects
Look for a fundamental solution
Avoid using the quick fix to gain time
Solve: Shifting the burden
Solve: Shifting the burden
Quick fixes reduce the ability to solve problems
Identify quick fixes and fundamental solutions
Focus on the fundamental solution
Use the quick fix to gain time (last resort)
Exercise
Word-of-mouth marketing strategy
Time is T45
Challenge: Use the model to define a strategy to increase the number of customers
Simplified model
Complete model
Complete model
My assumptions
New potential customers
= Customers in other markets
x Advertising sucess rate
- Clients in other markets: 1 million
- Advertising success rate: 5%
Potential and real clientsBefore After
Increase social contactsIncrease the effectiveness of contacts
Conclusion: Planning is...
Objectives Context
Problem
Decision
Results
Decisions
ObjectiveContext
Results