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Saaremaa majandus 20 aasta pärast
Mõned isiklikud mõtted ja tähelepanekud
September 2011
World
2
Estonia
Saaremaa
How can Saaremaa entrepreneurs position themselves for the future?
World trends - Population
3
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
World Population, billions
Emerging countries
Developed countries
F O R E C A S T
Source: United Nations
World trends – Economic activity
4
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
% o
f th
e to
tal
Economies' share of world GDP
Emerging countries
Developing countries
F O R E C A S T
Source: IMF, Trigon
Potential Impact of Climate Change by 2050
5 Source: United Nations Environmental Programme - The Environmental Food Crisis, 2009.
World trends - Environmental change
• Min -14%
• Mid -30%
• Max -46%
Food supply challenge
Fresh water supply challenge
World trends – Conclusions
Where does Estonia fit in on the global scale?
6
Estonia trends - Population
Share of children by local government units, 1.01.2000
7 Source: Statistics Estonia
Estonia trends - Population
Share of children by local government units, 1.01.2011
8 Source: Statistics Estonia
Estonia trends – Population
9 Source: Statistics Estonia
Population density
Estonia trends – Economic activity
Share of national GDP, %
From 1996 to 2008
10 Source: Statistics Estonia
53.1 59.6%
8.7 10.4%
10.6 8.1%
1.9 1.8%
Estonia trends – Conclusions
Where does Saaremaa fit in given Estonia’s positioning on the global scale and its local (dis)advantages?
11
Saaremaa – Competitive analysis
12
Advantages:
The sunniest part of Estonia
The lowest rainfall
Low air pollution
Cultural heritage
Island brand
Disadvantages:
Logistics
Labour
Source: Statistics Estonia
Tourism
Avoid mass
Niche / exclusive
Agribusiness
Organic agriculture
Related processing
Brand - Saaremaa
Other niche
E.g. Saare Paat
13 Source: Statistics Estonia
Saaremaa – Business opportunities
Saaremaa after 20 years: My forecast
14
Services
63%
Industry
32%
Agriculture
5%
Saaremaa GDP breakdown, 2008 Saaremaa GDP breakdown, 2030
More services
Less industry / More of the industry will be food processing related
More specialized agriculture (esp. organic)
Source: Statistics Estonia
Saaremaa: My recommendations
15
Support niche high-value tourism opportunities
Support niche high-value agriculture / food processing opportunities
Be open to local /outside entrepreneurs with interesting new ideas