How reliable is it to judge a book by its cover?To get an accurate idea of the content we need to look inside…

Some decisions are MUCH bigger and have longer lasting implications, than which book to buy…

How do you REALLY know which one is best placed and reliable enough to deliver the leadership that we NEED?

Have YOU read the manifestos - who has!? How much could the layman learn from such a task? - or do rely upon the analysis of “impartial” commentators?

…it is too “dry” and too complex!

So, do we merely content ourselves by judging based upon personal values, experience, knee-jerk, debate, single issue, demeanour, tailor and sound bites?

Ulrich Beck, Professor of Sociology at LSE and Author of “The Risk Society” says that:

“The task of politics has come up against its own limit”

“Politics has come to seem a satire of reality...”

Even if you are clear about what you want(or believe is right for UK) what evidence is there to suggest that you can trust “it” will ever be delivered???

Let’s see what you’re made ofWe really need to know much more to be able to gauge who we might trust. But that is intimate, private, privileged information.

Probably taking “transparency” too far!?

You can’t please all the people all of the time…

• …so DON’T TRY!!!• TRANSPARENT change to try to

“SERVE all the people all of the time”

• It is easy to say that, for Politicians, “talk is cheap” - apologies for yet another cliché but that is, at least, partly the point…isn’t it!?

• CHANGE is what is required but not merely Party-political change

• TRUST may be rebuilt from the bottom up

• WE CAN NO LONGER AFFORD just to apply “fixes and patches” for every patch means…

…more “COMPLEXITY”

• You may be familiar with the term but not necessarily in such a context and are entitled to ask:

• What is it? • What impact does it have? • How can we recognise and measure it? • What can we do to mitigate it and its effects?• What are the benefits of managing complexity?

– As the name suggests, to attempt to answer all of these and any other questions would take a considerable amount of time!

– So, if you will allow me, I will (try to) provide a brief summary…

Complex or Complicated?

• A system may be complicated, but have very low complexity.• A large number of parts doesn’t generally imply high

complexity. It does, in general, imply a complicated system.

• Complexity implies capacity to surprise, to deliver unexpected behaviour.

• In order to measure the amount of complexity it is necessary to take uncertainty into account, not just the number of parts.

Structure(Topology of information flow)

Uncertainty(Noise content in information)

COMPLEXITY

Complexity is a function of structure and uncertainty (entropy). It quantifies the degree of sophistication and the “amount of chaos” within a system. It is a fundamental property of dynamical systems, just like energy.

What is Complexity?

Why Complexity Management?

Complexity is rapidly increasing in all spheres of social life. This leads to multiple converging stresses and increases the levels of turbulence of the global economy as well as of the society. Doing business is increasingly difficult. Complexity must be managed before it reaches dangerous levels and threatens sustainability.

Critical Complexity

• Complexity cannot grow indefinitely and has a maximum. Close to this maximum, called critical complexity, a given system becomes

fragile and vulnerable.

• In the proximity of critical complexity systems possess numerous modes of behaviour and can switch from one mode to another sponaneously.

• Modes represent (behavioural) attractors.

• Critically complex systems are very difficult to manage and can easily run out of hand.

• After critical complexity decay begins unless structural changes are made to the system.

Mode 1 Mode 2

Mode 3 Mode 4

Which is easier managed?

System data Managed system data

Casualties of complexityWhat’s in a name – a logo – a brand?

You don’t have to be BIG, bent, bad at business or just plain greedy to “get things wrong” or to suffer from unforeseen circumstances …ALTHOUGH it helps!

It hurts. Many people have suffered and will continue to do so for some time but

what have WE learnt?

what have THEY learnt?

what chance of real CHANGE?

what price TRANSPARENCY?

Victims of complexity!!!Society – Culture – Economy – Environment – future generations

How deep does change need to be?

“To put the world in order, we must first put the nation in order; to put the nation in order, we must put the family in order; to put the family in order, we must cultivate our personal life; and to cultivate our personal life, we must first set our heart”

– Confucius