Life Cycle Modeling - Theory Behind TARA - Rick Biedenweg

SchoolDude University 2009

Planning Direct and TARA:

Life-cycle Modeling

March 2009


Agenda

1. Objectives2. Life-cycle Modeling3. Deliverables

The Pacific Partners Consulting Group

Life Cycle Modeling


Objectives

Estimate the magnitude of the backlog (DM).

Predict (district-wide) when building systems need to be replaced or renovated, and the associated costs.

Provide a sustainable planning tool: • profiles of each building• easy to update• inexpensive to implement and maintain

The Pacific Partners Consulting Group 2


Underlying Objectives

• “Underlying Objectives”

Create 10-year (multi-year) strategic capital plans that incorporate renewal needs.

Save money a) minimizing (or eliminating) condition assessments b) indentify buildings to “consume” c) consolidating capital projects

• within buildings

• across systems



Objectives – DM and Renewal Forecast

The Pacific Partners Consulting Group, Inc. 3

Backlog and 5 YR Renewal ( $000's)

Campus UH Hilo

Building L.R.C. CRV: $33,000 GSF: 95,853 Year Built 1981 FCI: 0.05

Backlog and 5-year Renewal Forecast ($ 000's)

Subsystem Backlog 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Total

Roofing $124 $0 $0 $0 $0 $703 $827

Elevators and Conveying $0 $441 $0 $0 $0 $0 $441

HVAC - Equipment $1,102 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $1,102

Electrical Equipment $0 $0 $0 $1,984 $0 $0 $1,984

Built-in Equipment and Specialties $551 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $551

Total $1,777 $441 $0 $1,984 $0 $703 $4,905


Example of a Renewal Curve

Millions


MnSCU Renewal Needs over Time

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

20

06

20

10

20

14

20

18

20

22

20

26

20

30

20

34

20

38

20

42

20

46

20

50

20

54

Year

Mill

ion

s o

f $

$$


Life-Cycle Modeling • Methodology developed at Stanford in 1980’s;

- Approach endorsed in a joint publication by

APPA, NACUBO & SCUP;

- Implemented on > 200 campuses including:– UC and CSU Systems (California) – Oregon University System– University of Texas System – The Smithsonian and The Getty– Minnesota State College and University System– Stanford University– CUNY and SUNY (New York)



Life Cycle Modeling and Renewal Curves

• The Concept of Life Cycle Planning:

(1) Building Systems have known life expectancies;

(2) The remaining life of each building system can be estimated;

(3) Renewal costs can be estimated.

The Pacific Partners Consulting Group, Inc. 5


– Routine Maintenance:

periodic “tune-ups”

– Capital Renewal:

replacing major subsystems

– Backlog of Renewal (DM):necessary renewal work that has been deferred

– Modernization:responding to changes in standards and/or program

“Maintenance” Definitions

Annual Expenditures for Facilities Maintenance

Definitions:

RoutineMaintenance

Renewal

Modernization

Backlog

The Pacific Partners Consulting Group


Information Needed

• Minimum Information Needed

1. Building Name

2. Building Type

3. Location

4. Gross Square Feet (GSF)

5. Floors

6. Year Built


The TARA Model• Examples of Building Categories

Science buildings (complex) Offices, classrooms, libraries (basic) Modular Buildings (modular) Storage Structures (simple) Buildings under 1,000 gsf (small)


Additional Information

• Improving the Forecast

Setting the Clock on the SystemsWhen was the system last renovated?

orWhat is the Remaining Life of the system?

orIs the system past its useful life (DM or backlog)?

Adding Special Considerations


The TARA Model

Examples of Special Consideration Factors

- Historic Buildings

- Libraries

- Multi-story Buildings

- Stand-alone Boilers or Chillers


Deliverables

• Project Deliverables

– Profiles for each building (or sub-building).

– Detailed estimates of the Backlog by building, campus, and system.

– Detailed renewal projections for the next 30 years by building, campus, and system.

– Easy to Maintain Web-based Software.

– User’s Guide and annual Campus training.


Sample Deliverables

Histograms Backlog Renewal Needs


University of Hawaii Histogram

UH (All Campuses) - GSF by Construction Year: Total = 13.0M

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

191

0

191

5

192

0

192

5

193

0

193

5

194

0

194

5

195

0

195

5

196

0

196

5

197

0

197

5

198

0

198

5

199

0

199

5

200

0

200

5

201

0

GS

F (0

00)


UH Manoa Histogram

UH Manoa - GSF by Year Built: Total = 7.9m

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

19

10

19

15

19

20

19

25

19

30

19

35

19

40

19

45

19

50

19

55

19

60

19

65

19

70

19

75

19

80

19

85

19

90

19

95

20

00

20

05

20

10

GS

F (

00

0)


University of Hawaii – Hilo Histogram

UH Hilo - GSF by Construction Year: Total = 928K

0

50

100

150

200

250

1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

GS

F (

000)


UH All Community Colleges Histogram

All Community Colleges - GSF by Construction Year: Total = 2.7M

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

19

20

19

25

19

30

19

35

19

40

19

45

19

50

19

55

19

60

19

65

19

70

19

75

19

80

19

85

19

90

19

95

20

00

20

05

20

10

GS

F (

00

0)


Maui CC Histogram

Maui CC - GSF by Construction Year: Total = 405K

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

GS

F (

00

0)


Building Backlog by System

UH Backlog by System (GF Only): Total = $262M

Roofs6%

Exteriors6%

Elevators1%

HVAC36%

Electrical7%

Plumbing9%

Fire3%

Built-in4%

Interiors16%

Small12%


Building Backlog by CampusBacklog by Campus (GF Only): Total = $262M

LEE ($13M)

MAU ($2M)

UHH ($29M)

UHM ($174M)

KAP ($6M)

KAU ($6M)

HAW ($2M) HON ($7M)

WIN ($2M)

UHM - Off ($21M)


Total GF Renewal Forecast

UH All Campuses - GF Renewal Needs

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,00020

09

2013

2017

2021

2025

2029

2033

2037

2041

2045

2049

2053

Year

Th

ou

san

ds

of

$$$


UH Manoa GF Renewal Forecast

UH Manoa - GF Renewal Needs

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,00020

09

2013

2017

2021

2025

2029

2033

2037

2041

2045

2049

2053

Year

Th

ou

san

ds

of

$$$


UH Hilo GF Renewal Forecast

UH Hilo - GF Renewal Needs

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,0002

00

9

20

13

20

17

20

21

20

25

20

29

20

33

20

37

20

41

20

45

20

49

20

53

Year

Th

ou

sa

nd

s o

f $

$$


Community Colleges GF Renewal Forecast

ALL CCs - GF Renewal Needs

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,0002

00

9

20

13

20

17

20

21

20

25

20

29

20

33

20

37

20

41

20

45

20

49

20

53

Year

Th

ou

sa

nd

s o

f $

$$


Maui CC – GF Renewal Forecast

Maui CC - GF Renewal Needs

$0$500

$1,000$1,500$2,000$2,500$3,000$3,500$4,000$4,500

2009

2012

2015

2018

2021

2024

2027

2030

2033

2036

2039

2042

2045

2048

2051

2054

Year

Th

ou

san

ds

of

$$$


Average Annual Infrastructure Needs

UH Annual Infrastructure Needs - Total = $6.5M

Roads13%

Hardscape18%

Util - Dist.12%

Util - Gen.39%

Misc/Scrty1%

Sea Water17%

Business

Life Cycle Modeling - Theory Behind TARA - Rick Biedenweg