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On the Importance ofTechnology Foresight
for the future of energy
Prof Sirkka Heinonen Finland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku
MILLENNIUM MEET-UP 23rd September 2015 Aalto Design Factory, Espoo
Triangle drama humans, technology and nature
crucial for all nations, societies, governments, cities, businesses, individuals, and humanity as a whole.
Modern progressNo single idea has been more important than the notion of progress — the conception that our imperfect human race is developing in a constantly improving direction, i.e. progressing.
Progress associated with technological progress
ROBOTIZATION-‐ Industrial-‐ Service-‐ Domestic-‐ Pet robots-‐ Android
© athomaz.com
Technology Convergence, AI, IoT, BigData, Robotisation
tekhne
-‐ work
-‐ -‐ techniques
-‐ crafts
-‐ artThe ultimate question concerning technology is human/machine interface
Technology is the material link btwhumans and nature
Humans think we can master thisrelation
But we have not developedtechnology sufficiently in harmonywith nature, following its structures, systems, processes…
The role of technology has to be re-‐defined
Appropriate technology – adapted for livability
Biomimicry
Technosystem adapted to eco-‐system
Futures research = systematic, holistic, multidisciplinaryand critical long-‐term analysis of futures topics and alternative developments
Futures Research
Futures Research
Foresight
Foresight = structured participatory debate about the future of complex issues
Technology Foresight
THE RAPID CHANGE EMPHASIZES THE STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE OF FORESIGHT
Change is not only rapid but also continuous, increasinglydifficult to foresee in our complex world
We are living the age of globalization, urbanization, digitalization, climate change and resource scarcity
These megatrends are making a significant impact on nations and on people’s lives
© Sirkka Heinonen
MI
“The 21stCentury will be the century of complexity”
Steven Hawking
”FuturesResearch is business of complexity, unpredict-‐ability, uncertainty, surprise”
MILLENNIUM PROJECT
CLUB OF ROME
The Club of Rome’s Limits to Growth report (1972) paved the way for a deeper, systemic understanding
of humankind’s intervention in the ecosphere.
One of the most critical systems for humanity’s survival is embedded in natural resources and energy.
futures awareness >>>> energy awareness
The future use of natural resources and energy is affected bysocio-cultural aspects such as changes in people's lifestyles and value systems - equally important to study as technological, economic and geopolitic factors.• .
NEO-‐CARBON ENERGYTekes project (2014-‐2019)VTT LUT FFRC/UTU
A new renewable energy based production and storage system is being developed by VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland and Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT). FFRC in charge of the horizon scanning of the changing world and energy landscape. Innovative foresight tools and processes are applied i.e. Futures Cliniques. China and some countries from Africa and Latin America are included as case studies.
§ 2050: zero emission energy system has to be in place if global warming is limited to +2°C.
§ 2030: only emission free technologies can be taken in use.
§ 2015: solar and wind become the least cost options in large part of the World.
WHY?
/A COMPLETELY NEW RENEWABLE ENERGY SYSTEM WHERE ENERGY IS EMISSION-FREE, COST-EFFECTIVE AND INDEPENDENT.
NEO-CARBON ENERGY is one of the Tekes strategic research openings and the project is carried out in cooperation with Technical Research Centre of Finland VTT Ltd, Lappeenranta University of Technology LUT and University of Turku, Finland Futures Research Centre FFRC.
Neo-‐Carbon Energy Project studiesa) a 100 % renewable energy
system of solar, wind and storage, and
b) the social societal implication of the new energy system
a conceptdevelopedby Prof Pentti Malaska(a word play on degrowth)
unlike degrowth, neo-growth does not reject growth but emphasises itspositive connotations
1) environmentally sustainable2) merges economic growth with cultural, social and ”spiritual” growth
-> an attempt to re-establish a holistic vision of growth.
Could growth be defined anew – so that it is environmentally sustainable, and instead of conventional economic goals serves the overall well-being of citizens?
Neo-Growth
Four Scenarios+Energy implications
© Sirkka Heinonen
RADICAL STARTUPS
VALUE-‐DRIVENTECHEMOTHS
GREEN DIY ENGINEERS
NEW CONSCIOUSNESS
EMERGING MEANINGS SOCIETY
In the future meanings society, more and more urban functions are organised to provide meaningful experiences for citizens who become active urban designers themselves – and active energy prosumers!
©VirpiVaattovaara
Thank You!
Professor Sirkka HeinonenFinland Futures Research Centre(FFRC), University of Turkusirkka.heinonen (at) utu.fi
REFERENCES
Dator, Jim (2012). Dream Society? Ubiquitous Society? No Society? Summer Seminar by theFinnish Society for Futures Studies. Otava.
Heinonen, Sirkka (2014). What is Futures Reseach and Scenario Thinking? Lecture at Universityof Buenos Aires (UBA), Departamento de Computación 18th November 2014. During theSecondment at FLACSO and CIECTI, Buenos Aires (November 2014). 50 ppt slides. www.youtube.com/watch?v=cY4NGAfdhJU
Heinonen, Sirkka, Karjalainen, Joni and Ruotsalainen, Juho (2015). Towards the Third Industrial Revolution. Neo-Carbon Energy Futures Clinique I. eBook 6/2015. Finland Futures Research Centre, 74 p. http://www.utu.fi/fi/yksikot/ffrc/julkaisut/e-tutu/Documents/FFRC-eBook-6-2015.pdf
Heinonen, Sirkka & Ruotsalainen, Juho (2014). Toward Ubiquitous Learning. www.ael.fi/sites/default/files/files/ael_futuriikki_eng_10-2014_final_net.pdf
Malaska, Pentti (2010). A More Innovative Direction Has Been Ignored. In: Understanding Neogrowth - An Invitation to Sustainable Productivity. TeliaSonera Finland Plc. Helsinki, p. 200-210.www.sonera.fi/media/13069ab55806de22e8955bc2a3f1afeab17b28bd/Understanding_Neogrowth.pdf