Ncsl summary of state fiscal situations

TABLE 12. SUMMARY OF STATE FISCAL SITUATIONSTABLE 12. SUMMARY OF STATE FISCAL SITUATIONS

Jurisdiction StatementAlabama Relatively stable at this time.Alaska Due to lower oil prices and production, officials expect a deficit of about $350 million in FY 2013. Arizona Stable but with uncertainty regarding the impacts of sequestration on state revenues.Arkansas General revenue is estimated to end FY 2013 with a $99.5 million surplus.California Monthly cash receipts are significantly exceeding administration estimates in the governor's January budget but,

depending on a variety of factors, virtually all of the additional revenues may be required to fund K-12 and community college education under the state constitution’s minimum funding guarantee for education.

Colorado The key word is “watchful.” The Colorado economy has shown consistent improvement in the labor and real estate markets, growth in consumer spending, and increasing strength in the business and financial sectors. However, the continued uncertainty of federal fiscal policy and the indeterminate impacts on the Colorado economy have weighed down economic growth. The general fund will have a surplus equal to 11.4 percent of general fund operating appropriations at the end of FY 2013.

Connecticut The state is currently in a relatively small deficit situation (less than 1 percent of total expenditures). The deficit had been reduced after deficit mitigation action in December 2012. Pending April income tax collections, officials are optimistic that the deficit will remain similar to its current size or be eliminated.

Delaware Slow and moderate growth. District of Columbia

The District's economy is doing well and the revenue base is naturally expanding. The District is growing by 1,100 net new residents a month. More of the income earned in the District is earned by D.C. residents and is thus taxable (D.C. does not have the ability to levy a commuter tax). Even after conservatively factoring in the effect of sequestration, the February 2013 revenue estimates projected an additional $190 million in new FY 2013 revenues and $170 million in new FY 2014 revenues. Sequestration does inject a bit of uncertainty with revenues, as personal income taxes will be affected by furloughs and business income taxes will be affected by a reduction in contracting out government services. Officials also anticipate that the District will lose approximately $30 million in federal grants through the across the board reductions in certain programs.

Florida (N/R)Georgia The state will likely meet the latest forecast for amended FY 2013 and continue to build up its Revenue Shortfall

Reserve (RSR) fund.Hawaii Stable revenue picture will allow for structural fixes to the state’s long term financial plan.Idaho The Medicaid forecast was shifted downward, which allowed the Legislature to move resources away from that

program and help slow the overall growth of state government.Illinois The state continues to face extreme fiscal pressure. While revenues have met and in some instances exceeded

expectations, the fiscal pressures of pension funding problems, approximately $9 billion in unpaid bills, and soon-to-expire higher income tax rates, continue to cause significant budgetary difficulties.

Indiana Stable to good. FY 2013 general fund revenue through March 2013 is slightly above the April 16, 2013, revenue forecast. FY 2013 combined balances are projected at $2,043.7 million or 14 percent of projected FY 2013 operating revenue.

Iowa Revenues continue to exceed estimates, and the Legislative Services Agency is optimistic for the remaining three months of FY 2013 and cautiously optimistic for FY 2014. Concerns continue to exist about the uncertainty of the federal fiscal policy and the impact of sequestration. Corporate income tax revenue growth is expected to slow, but employment benchmark revisions indicate that more Iowans are employed than originally estimated; a positive sign. The drought of 2012 continues into 2013 and if it persists, it could negatively impact future revenue.

Kansas The current fiscal year appears to be solid, but future fiscal years are somewhat dependant on the impact of current tax bills under consideration.

Kentucky Stable at this point. Revenues and expenditures are near budgeted levels.Louisiana Cautiously balanced, but subject to Medicaid and state revenue volatility and uncertainties.Maine Maine's economy is recovering slowly, but the state faces a 3.5 percent decline of general fund revenue for FY

2014 as significant income tax reductions beginning with the 2013 tax year take effect. The current services structural gap estimates for the upcoming biennial budget is roughly 13 percent of appropriations.

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Jurisdiction StatementMaryland Although general fund revenue is slightly underperforming, legislative action during the 2013 session is expected

to conclude with a combined general fund and rainy day fund balance of $1.2 billion. The structural imbalance between ongoing general fund revenue and spending, which was as high as $2 billion following the Great Recession of 2007, has nearly been resolved. General fund structural surpluses are forecasted beginning in FY 2017.

Massachusetts In December, FY 2013 tax revenue estimates were downgraded from $22.011 billion to $21.496 billion, a decrease of $515 million. This downgrade required $157 million in mid-year budget cuts, an additional $200 million draw from the stabilization fund (for a total of $550 million drawn from the stabilization fund in FY 2013), as well as other savings. Since the December downgrades, revenues have rebounded and are now $363 million above the revised benchmark. Without the December revenue downgrade, Massachusetts would be $10 million below the original year to date revenue benchmark.

Michigan Both revenues and the state economy are improving, but at a slower rate than during the last few years. Revenue growth rates continue to be affected by substantial tax changes enacted in prior years. Expenditures are on target. The fiscal situation largely appears as budgeted.

Minnesota The state's fiscal health has improved since the previous forecast. Forecasted revenues are up and forecasted spending is down since the previous forecast.

Mississippi Stable and growing slowly.Missouri As of the end of March, year-to-date state general revenue growth is at 8.26 percent while the state general revenue

estimate for FY 2013 is 4.8 percent growth over the past fiscal year (FY 2012).Montana The state's fiscal situation is strong, which may enable officials to address fiscal issues such as pensions.Nebraska Stable. Nevada Stable to optimistic, based on actual revenue collections slightly exceeding the Nov. 30, 2012, Economic Forum

forecast and a greater-than-projected ending general fund balance.New Hampshire Cautiously optimistic.New Jersey Revenues are growing, but perhaps not at the pace anticipated in the budget.New Mexico The recent recession hit New Mexico later than other states. However, the state's economy is on a path of slow, but

sustained, growth. Revenue estimates for FY 2014, indicate growth of about 4.3 percent. General fund reserves are expected to remain above 10 percent of recurring appropriations for FY 2013 and FY 2014.

New York The state passed an early budget on Mar. 28, 2013. The budget was balanced and reduced out year gaps by $1.8 billion.

North Carolina The most recent revenue forecast projects a slight increase over the FY 2013 budgeted amount. The forecast anticipates below average revenue growth during the 2013-15 biennium.

North Dakota The state's fiscal situation is very positive with revenues continuing to grow, but at a somewhat slower pace than during the last two years.

Ohio The executive budget anticipates making a transfer of several hundred million dollars to the Budget Stabilization Fund in July, to bring the level in the fund to its target level of 5 percent of annual general fund revenue.

Oklahoma Through February, revenue is nearly identical to this point last year, primarily being held back by year-to-date declines in net gross production revenue. For the same period, collections are modestly ahead of the estimate, once again with gross production revenue holding the key to the final performance.

Oregon Currently stable. The Legislature took action during the current session to rebalance the 2011-13 biennial budget, but changes were minimal. The latest economic and revenue forecast projects a 2011-13 biennium ending balance of $382 million, or about 2.8 percent of budgeted expenditures.

Pennsylvania Revenues have been consistent and stable. However, the unemployment rate remains a concern.Puerto Rico The fiscal situation for FY 2013 includes a total revenue shortfall of $620 million. Also, there is total excess

spending of $140 million. Rhode Island N/RSouth Carolina Stable, but cautious.South Dakota Cautiously optimistic. Tennessee Stable.Texas The current fiscal situation is strong. Revenues have increased over the previous biennium, and the state has

addressed budget shortfalls for the current fiscal year. Budget bills moving through the process fully fund projected caseloads.

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Jurisdiction StatementU.S. Virgin Islands

Recovery from recession is extremely slow with an energy crisis likely to reduce any private sector gains which will translate to lower government revenues.

Utah Using employment as a gauge, Utah's economy has recovered from the Great Recession and is slowly growing. The budget is stable.

Vermont The state is still experiencing a slow recovery.Virginia Stable. Revenues are steady and no major budget areas are in trouble.Washington The problem statement for the 2013-15 biennium is challenging. With modest revenue growth, the cost of

continuing current programs (and other existing statutory obligations) is expected to exceed revenues by about $1.2 billion. In addition, there is a need seen to make large new investments in K-12 (for the 2013-15 biennium, the range most often discussed for the "first installment" is between $900 million and $1.4 billion), partly in response to litigation (the McCleary case). Different budget proposals have also increased spending in areas such as higher education, early learning, child care, child welfare, mental health and the arbitration award for home care workers. For FY 2013, costs and revenue are both up a small amount.

West Virginia Revenues are slightly down. The category with the biggest shortfall is severance tax. Although not a part of general revenue, lottery revenues are down. The state depends upon lottery revenues to supplement general revenue appropriations for education and senior services.

Wisconsin Stable.Wyoming On the expenditure side, the Legislature recently imposed general fund budget reductions averaging 4.3 percent

across all agencies for FY 2014. On the revenue side, general fund revenues have not recovered from the FY 2008 peak; however, near-term investment income from pooled and permanent funds is expected to exceed any modest shortfalls in other revenue sources. Federal sequestration of federal mineral revenue payments will result in a revenue reduction of $53 million for the state, primarily in FY 2013, and directly affecting accounts other than the general fund.

Key: N/R = No Response. Source: NCSL survey of legislative fiscal offices, spring 2013.Key: N/R = No Response. Source: NCSL survey of legislative fiscal offices, spring 2013.

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Ncsl summary of state fiscal situations