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Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 1 NewBase 13 March 2016 - Issue No. 806 Edited & Produced by: Khaled Al Awadi NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE CEO of DEWA, President of General Electric Gulf discuss developments in energy transformation and renewable energy (WAM) -- Saeed Mohammed Al Tayer, MD and CEO of Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (DEWA) received Dalya Al Muthanna, President and CEO of General Electric Gulf, at DEWA’s headquarters. The meeting is a part of DEWA’s efforts to strengthen cooperation with international companies, exchange best international experiences and practices, and keep up to date with the latest advances in energy, with a special focus on clean, renewable energy. Al Tayer welcomed Al Muthanna and emphasised the importance of such meetings, to enhance cooperation, and contribute towards achieving the development objectives of mutual projects. Al Tayer and Al Muthanna also discussed the accelerated developments in energy transformation and renewable energy, as well as the efforts being made to develop new techniques and solutions. They also reviewed DEWA’s most important current and ongoing projects. Al Tayer noted the importance of cooperating with the private sector, to strengthen the energy sector and enhance Dubai’s electricity and water infrastructure, in adherence with the highest international criteria and best practices. Al Muthanna outlined the solutions and techniques offered by General Electric Gulf, for renewable energy, technology, and investments, in addition to their latest research and studies.

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Page 1: New base 806 special 13 march 2016

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 1

NewBase 13 March 2016 - Issue No. 806 Edited & Produced by: Khaled Al Awadi

NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE

CEO of DEWA, President of General Electric Gulf discuss developments in energy transformation and renewable energy

(WAM) -- Saeed Mohammed Al Tayer, MD and CEO of Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (DEWA) received Dalya Al Muthanna, President and CEO of General Electric Gulf, at DEWA’s headquarters.

The meeting is a part of DEWA’s efforts to strengthen cooperation with international companies, exchange best international experiences and practices, and keep up to date with the latest advances in energy, with a special focus on clean, renewable energy.

Al Tayer welcomed Al Muthanna and emphasised the importance of such meetings, to enhance cooperation, and contribute towards achieving the development objectives of mutual projects.

Al Tayer and Al Muthanna also discussed the

accelerated developments in energy transformation and renewable energy, as well as the efforts being made to develop new

techniques and solutions. They also reviewed DEWA’s most important current and ongoing projects.

Al Tayer noted the importance of cooperating with the private sector, to strengthen the energy sector and enhance Dubai’s electricity and water infrastructure, in adherence with the highest international criteria and best practices.

Al Muthanna outlined the solutions and techniques offered by General Electric Gulf, for renewable energy, technology, and investments, in addition to their latest research and studies.

Page 2: New base 806 special 13 march 2016

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 2

Morocco: Sound Energy announces acquisition of additional Sidi Moktar interest and farmout to Culebra Petroleum Source: Sound Energy Sound Energy, the Mediterranean focused upstream gas company, has announced:

• the signature of a binding agreement for the acquisition of a further 50% operated interest in three onshore gas permits located in Morocco (together the 'Sidi Moktar Licences') fromPetroMaroc; and

• the signature of Heads of Agreement for a farm out of Sidi Moktar to Culebra Petroleum via a partial sale of an intermediate subsidiary of Sound Energy.

The Sidi Moktar Licences cover 2,700 sq kms in the Essaouira basin, central Morocco and contain a material existing gas discovery in the Lower Liassic ('Kechoula'). Two wells have already been drilled at Kechoula and a near term extended well test is awaited prior to expected commercial production. Kechoula is close to existing infrastructure and has been estimated to have an unrisked mid case GOIP of 293 Bscf (100% working interest). The Sidi Moktar Licences are also estimated to have significant (in excess of 1 Tcf of unrisked mid case GOIP; 100%) Triassic exploration potential.

Sidi Moktar Acquisition: Signature of binding agreement with PetroMaroc

Further to the Heads of Terms announced by the Company on 26 January 2016, the Company has now signed a binding agreement to acquire, subject to regulatory approvals, PetroMaroc's 50% working interest in, and operatorship of, the Sidi Moktar Licences. On completion of the Acquisition, Sound Energy will issue 21,258,008 new ordinary shares in the Company to

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publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 3

PetroMaroc as consideration and will also issue PetroMaroc: (i) a 10% net profit interest in any future cash flows from the Kechoula discovery; and (ii) a 5% net profit interest in any future cash flows from structures within the Sidi Moktar Licences other than the Kechoula discovery. These terms are identical to those announced on 26 January 2016.

Following the Acquisition the Company will hold 75% of the Sidi Moktar Licences through its 100% owned UK incorporated intermediate holding company, Sound Energy Morocco South.

Sidi Moktar Farm Out: Signature of Heads of Terms with Culebra Petroleum

The Company has also signed Heads of Terms with Culebra Petroleum for the sale of 66.67% of Sound Energy Morocco South, which will effectively entitle Culebra Petroleum to 50% working interest in the Sidi Moktar Licences.

Sound Energy Morocco South is currently 100% owned by the Company and its only assets are (subject to completion of the Acquisition) Sound Energy's 75% interest in, and operatorship of, the Sidi Moktar Licences.

Culebra is an established, Guernsey incorporated, privately owned, oil and gas company which, amongst its portfolio priorities, is pursuing a North African onshore strategy. Culebra Petroleum is advised by Toronto-based Comet Energy and London-based Lyndisfarne Partners on this transaction.

As consideration for the acquisition by Culebra Petroleum of 66.67% of Sound Energy Morocco South, Culebra Petroleum will, subject to contract:

• pay the Company US$6 million in cash;

• commit to an investment programme on the Sidi Moktar Licences up to a value of US$18 million, which will include a carry to Sound Energy of up to US$4.5 million; and

• assume 90% of the net profit interests granted to PetroMaroc as part of the Acquisition (leaving Sound Energy to pay the remaining 10%).

Sound Energy Morocco South will remain operator of the Sidi Moktar Licences with both Sound Energy and Culebra Petroleum jointly staffing all operations.

James Parsons, the Company's Chief Executive, commented: 'The combination of these two transactions will position Sound Energy with:-

• an effective 25% working interest in Sidi Moktar with a carry to US$18 million (100%) from an aligned and well funded partner; and

• an additional US$6 million of cash, with which to continue Sound Energy's counter cyclical growth strategy.'

Page 4: New base 806 special 13 march 2016

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 4

Egypt: Eni succeeds with first production test of Zohr field Source: Eni Eni has successfully performed the production test of Zohr 2X, first appraisal well of

the Zohr discovery, in the Shorouk block, offshore Egypt.

During the test, 120 m of the reservoir were opened to production. The well, constrained by surface facilities, delivered up to 44 million standard cubic feet of gas

per day (MMscfd).

The comprehensive

set of data collected and analyzed have

proved that the well has a great production

capacity, which is estimated in a

deliverability of up to 250 MMScfd in

production configuration (about

46 thousand barrel of

oil equivalent per day).

The programme envisages for 2016 the

drilling of a further three wells. Besides,

the onshore gas treatment plant

construction works have already started

and the bids for the offshore activities

launched and nearly completed.

Eni, through IEOC,

holds a 100% stake in the Shorouk license.

Operations are being conducted

by Petrobel, which is a joint venture between IEOC and the State partner Egyptian General

Petroleum Corporation (EGPC). Eni has been present in Egypt since 1954 where it operates through IEOC Production. The equity production in the country was in

2015 about 200 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day.

Page 5: New base 806 special 13 march 2016

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Israel-Jordan Pipeline Expected to be Operational in 2017

Natural gas pipeline between Israel and Jordan is expected to become operational in 2017, Israel Natural Gas Lines CEO Samuel Tordjman said Thursday.

According to a report by Globes, Israel Natural Gas Lines presented the progress made in construction of the pipelines to Jordan, as well as the plan to establish a marine installation for high-speed transmission of gas from new gas fields and a plan for underground natural gas storage.

The pipeline will supply gas from the Tamar reservoir to private sector firms in Jordan. A second pipeline to be built in the Beit Shean area is due to supply gas from the Leviathan reservoir to the Jordanian National Electric Power Company (NEPCO).

The agreement to supply gas from Leviathan field, offshore Israel, to the National Electric Power Company Ltd. (NEPCO) of Jordan was signed in September 2014. Under terms of the LOI, Noble Energy and the Leviathan partners will supply a base gross quantity of 1.6 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of natural gas from the Leviathan field over a 15-year term.

Page 6: New base 806 special 13 march 2016

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Sales volumes under the agreement are anticipated to begin at a rate of 300 million cubic feet per day. In February, the Tamar partners signed a letter of intent with private customers in Jordan.

Jordan has been facing rising energy bills due to stoppage of gas supplies from Egypt. The country has been forced to use more expensive heavy fuel and diesel for power generation. Egypt gas supplies have stopped, having been falling sharply since sabotage attacks on the network in Egypt's Sinai region since 2011 and

bottlenecks in the country's own domestic market.

Page 7: New base 806 special 13 march 2016

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 7

India Unveils New Hydrocarbon Policy Inida news agancies

India on Thursday announced a new hydrocarbon exploration policy. Among the various measures that the nation’s cabinet approved to boost oil and gas production, is that of marketing and pricing freedom for new gas production from deepwater, ultra deepwater and high pressure-high temperature areas.

The cabinet also announced a policy for future which provides for a uniform licensing system to cover all hydrocarbons such as oil, gas, coal bed methane, shale gas, shale oil, etc. under a single licensing framework, Hydrocarbon Exploration and Licensing Policy (HELP). The present policy regime for exploration and production of oil and gas, known as New Exploration Licensing Policy (NELP), been in existence for 18 years. Over the

years, various problems and issues have arisen.

“Presently, there are separate policies and licenses for different hydrocarbons. There are separate policy regimes for conventional oil and gas, coal-bed methane, shale oil and gas and gas hydrates. Different fiscal terms are also in force for allocation of acreages for exploration for different hydrocarbons.

In practice, there is overlapping of resources between different contracts. Unconventional hydrocarbons (shale gas and shale oil) were unknown when NELP was framed. This fragmented policy framework leads to inefficiencies in exploiting natural resources,” the government said in a statement.

The government believes the new policy regime will mark a generational shift and modernization of the oil and gas exploration policy. It is expected to stimulate new exploration activity for oil, gas and other hydrocarbons and eventually reduce import dependence.

Regarding new gas production from deepwater, ultra deepwater and high pressure-high temperature areas the cabinet said, “After extensive consultations, it was felt that rather than fixing a premium, it would be more appropriate to provide marketing and pricing freedom to the gas to be produced from the new discoveries as well as existing discoveries which are yet to commence production.

However, in order to protect user industries from market imperfections, this freedom would be accompanied by a price ceiling based on opportunity cost of imported fuels.”

Page 8: New base 806 special 13 march 2016

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Producers will be allowed marketing and pricing freedom for all the discoveries in deep water, ultra-deep water, high temperature high pressure areas which are yet to commence commercial production as on 1.1.2016 and for all future discoveries in such areas.

However, to protect user industries from any market imperfections, this freedom would be subject to a ceiling price on the basis of landed price of alternative fuels, the government stated. To the extent that domestic gas can be produced and sold at a price below import parity price.

India is among the largest consumers of energy and has been overwhelmingly reliant on imports to meet local demand as domestic output has been sliding in recent years. Domestic gas production witnessed a decline of 17 percent in two years from 40.66 BCM in 2012-13, it fell to 33.65 BCM in 2014-15.

Cabinet also approved replacing the controversial Production Sharing Contract (PSC) with simpler revenue-sharing regime for all future field auction.

Page 9: New base 806 special 13 march 2016

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 9

U.S. ethanol exports reach highest level since 2011 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Petroleum Supply Monthly

U.S. exports of fuel ethanol reached their highest level in four years in 2015, totaling 844 million gallons, a slight increase from 2014 and second only to the 1.2 billion gallons exported during 2011. U.S. imports of ethanol, which totaled 73 million gallons in 2014, also increased in 2015, reaching a total of 92 million gallons. The United States remained a net exporter of fuel ethanol for the sixth consecutive year and exported the fuel to 35 different countries in 2015.

In the United States, ethanol is primarily used as a blending component in the production of motor gasoline (mainly blended in volumes up to 10% ethanol, also known as E10). Corn is the primary feedstock of ethanol in the United States, and large corn harvests have contributed to increased ethanol production in recent years.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that the United States produced 13.6 billion bushels of corn in the 2015–16 harvest year (typically October and November), 4% lower than the record set in 2014–15 but on par with the level produced in 2013–14. U.S. ethanol production reached a record level of 14.8 billion gallons in 2015, surpassing the previous record of 14.3 billion gallons set in 2014.

U.S. ethanol demand was driven higher in 2015 because of increased gasoline consumption, which rose by an estimated 2.7% from its 2014 level, reaching the highest level since the record set in 2007. As gasoline consumption increases, more ethanol can be used as a blendstock (as E10). Additional volumes of ethanol beyond requirements for E10 blending and relatively small

Page 10: New base 806 special 13 march 2016

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volumes used in higher ethanol blends such as E85 (51% to 83% ethanol, 49% to 17% gasoline) were exported.

Canada remained the top destination for U.S. ethanol exports in 2015, receiving 249 million gallons, about 30% of all U.S. ethanol exports. Brazil and the Philippines were the next largest importers of U.S. ethanol in 2015, at 116 million gallons and 72 million gallons, respectively.

Driven by growing gasoline demand and air quality concerns, China significantly increased imports of U.S. ethanol volumes in 2015, increasing from 3 million gallons in 2014 to 70 million gallons in 2015. U.S. ethanol has been a competitively priced octane booster for gasoline in foreign markets as well as an attractive option for meeting renewable fuel and greenhouse gas emissions programs. In addition, countries such as Canada and Brazil have ethanol-blending mandates that continue to generate demand for U.S. ethanol.

Given the large amount of existing ethanol production capacity, ongoing constraints for blending ethanol into domestic gasoline, and the value of ethanol in foreign markets as a source of clean octane, the United States likely will remain an exporter of ethanol in 2016.

Although the United States was a large exporter of ethanol in recent years, it also imports some ethanol. U.S. ethanol imports totaled 92 million gallons in 2015, an increase of 23% from 2014.

Almost all (96%) U.S. imports came from Brazil, up from 74% in 2014, with the remaining gallons coming from Canada. U.S. import demand for ethanol was primarily driven by Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) and California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) targets for the use of biofuels with low greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

Lifecycle GHG emissions from sugarcane ethanol production as estimated by scoring systems used in these programs are significantly lower than those from conventionally produced corn ethanol.

The California LCFS, which mandates progressively more stringent requirements for increased blending of low GHG fuel components over time, was particularly important in driving larger volumes of Brazilian ethanol imports in 2015, with 44 million gallons entering the United States on the West Coast, more than triple the 13 million gallons imported in 2014.

Page 11: New base 806 special 13 march 2016

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NewBase 13 March 2016 Khaled Al Awadi

NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE

Crude oil ends up with WTI at $38.50, logs 4-week win streak Reuters + NewBase

U.S. oil rose on Friday after the Western world's energy watchdog said crude prices may have reached their bottom, although Goldman Sachs said the market's rally was "premature." Also on Friday, oilfield services firm Baker Hughes reported the number of rigs drilling for oil in the United States fell by 6 to a total of 386. At this time last year, the oil rig count stood at 866.

U.S. crude futures settled at $38.50 a barrel, up 66 cents, or 1.74 percent, after hitting a 2016 high at $39.02. For the week, it gained 7..18 percent, rising for a fourth week in a row.

Brent crude futures were at $40.41 a barrel, up 36 cents. On the week, it rose more than 4 percent, headed for a third straight weekly gain.

The International Energy Agency, which coordinates energy policies of industrialized nations, said U.S. and non-OPEC crude output was beginning to fall quickly and increases in Iranian supply had been less than dramatic.

The IEA said it believed non-OPEC output will fall by 750,000 barrels per day this year, some 25 percent more than the 600,000 bpd it previously forecast.

Goldman Sachs remained bearish, saying in a note to clients that prices could fall sharply in coming weeks with record U.S. inventory builds offsetting production declines in the country.

Oil price special

coverage

Page 12: New base 806 special 13 march 2016

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publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 12

The bank said oil prices need to be low enough to ensure supply is reduced over time, projecting $39 a barrel on the average for global benchmark Brent crude in 2016, down from its previous forecast of $45.

"So now it appears the two sides of the debate are set," said David Thompson of Washington-based commodities broker Powerhouse. "The bearish view of Goldman Sachs versus the IEA on the bullish side."

The IEA's forecast aside, there could be more supply disruptions, with a source telling Reuters that maintenance works will close Britain's Buzzard oilfield in July for roughly a month. The 180,000 bpd field is the largest contributor to the Forties crude oil stream, one of four crudes which underpin Brent.

However, oil has resumed flowing from Iraq's Kurdistan region to the Turkish port of Ceyhan, sources said, after a pipeline's closure in mid-February removed some 600,000 bpd from the market.

The IEA said it saw global oil and product stocks rising heavily in the first half of 2016, in the range of 1.5 million to 1.9 million bpd, but that would slow to 0.2 million bpd in the second half. The excess itself led some to warn that a premature price recovery could hamper market rebalancing.

"There are clear signs that market forces ... are working their magic and higher-cost producers are cutting output," the Paris-based organization said.

Page 13: New base 806 special 13 march 2016

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US oil explorers park rigs as world waits for output drop Bloomberg + NewBase

Explorers parked more drilling rigs in US oilfields as pressure continues on North America to balance oversupplied world crude markets with output cuts.

Rigs targeting oil in the US fell by another 6 to 386, after nearly 150 were idled since the start of the year, Baker Hughes Inc said on its website Friday. The report marks the 12th-straight week of declines in the number of working rigs. Natural gas rigs were trimmed by 3 to 94, bringing the total down 9 to 480. Rigs in the Permian Basin of West Texas led the weekly decline, dropping six oil rigs and leaving 150 working.

“There’s never been a rig count this low in my life, nor in my grandparents’ life and they were born the century before last,” said Jim Williams, president of WTRG Economics in London, Arkansas. “You probably have to go back to 1860 or 1861, since a year or two after oil was first found in Pennsylvania.”

The oil market may be starting to rebalance as US production shows signs of declining and output in Nigeria and Kurdistan is disrupted, potentially shrinking the global glut of crude that’s deflated prices, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Volatile range

“Storage constraints and a still-large oversupply in coming months will continue to keep prices in a trendless and volatile range,” Goldman analysts including Damien Courvalin wrote in a report dated March 11. The bank expects oil to trade between $25 to $45 (Dh92 to Dh165) a barrel in the second quarter of this year, compared with a range of $20 to $40 in the first three months.

America’s oil drillers have been idling rigs since October 2014 as the world’s largest crude suppliers battle for market share. Despite the cutbacks, US production has remained stubbornly high as new techniques that increase efficiency keep the oil flowing.

Page 14: New base 806 special 13 march 2016

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Production gained by 1,000 barrels a day to 9.08 million last week. It was the first time in seven weeks that US output rose. The nation’s output will drop to its lowest since 2013 next year as battered shale drillers idle rigs to conserve cash, the US. Energy Information Administration said in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook Tuesday.

West Texas Intermediate, the US benchmark crude, settled up 1.7 per cent to $38.50 Friday on the New York Mercantile Exchange, capping the longest run of weekly gains since May.

Page 15: New base 806 special 13 march 2016

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NewBase Special Coverage

News Agencies News Release 13 March 2016

IEA cuts estimated non-Opec output decline by 12% WAM + IEA + GulfNews

Global oil supplies eased by 180 000 barrels per day (bpd) in February, to 96.5 million barrels per day (mb/d), on lower Opec and non-Opec output, according to the newly released IEA Oil Market Report (OMR) for March. But production stood 1.8 mb/d above a year earlier, as a slight decline in non-Opec was more than offset by Opec gains. Non-Opec production in 2016 is estimated to fall by 750,000 bpd, to 57.0 million bpd, 100,000 bpd less than foreseen in last month’s Report.

Opec crude oil production eased by 90,000 bpd in February to a still-robust 32.61 million bpd with losses from Iraq, Nigeria and the UAE partly offset by a substantial rise in flows from post-sanctions Iran. Saudi Arabia, Opec’s largest producer, held supplies steady.

Sharp decelerations in demand growth — particularly in the United States and China — pulled global growth down to a one-year low of 1.2 million bpd in the fourth quarter of last year compared with the year earlier, dramatically below the near five-year high of 2.3 million bpd in the previous quarter. A gain of around 1.2 million bpd is forecast for 2016.

OECD commercial inventories gained 20.2 million barrels in January while forward demand cover remained comfortable at 32.7 days. Preliminary data suggest that in February, OECD inventories drew for the first time in a year while volumes of crude held in floating storage increased.

Global refinery throughputs are estimated at 79.1 million bpd in the current quarter, reflecting weak OECD refinery throughput and a shift of peak spring maintenance to this quarter. Annual growth in the fourth quarter of last year fell to below 1 million bpd amid product stock builds and in line with a slowdown in global oil demand growth.

The March OMR examines in-depth the proposed offer by Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Qatar and Russia to freeze production at January levels and also features a focus on the changing nature of second-quarter oil demand particularly as non-OECD consumers rise in prominence.

Page 16: New base 806 special 13 march 2016

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Markets continue to remain in flux Syed Rashid Husain

CRUDE markets are in a flux. While the dollar weakened, the Chinese currency yuan and other currencies gained strength – resulting in prices rising. Oil prices soared overnight Friday, following US Energy Information Administration data that showed a much larger-than-expected drawdown in gasoline stocks last week, suggesting robust energy demand in the US. The 4.5 million-barrel decline in US gasoline stocks however, outweighed the 3.9 million-barrel growth in crude inventories.

In a statement Wednesday, the EIA had also said US monthly crude production in December reached its lowest level since November 2014, and production also declined from year-earlier levels for the first time in more than four years. “US crude oil production averaged an estimated 9.4 million barrels per day in 2015, and it is forecast to average 8.7 million barrels per day in 2016 and 8.2 million per barrel a day in 2017,” the agency said.

Yet, in the shorter term, markets remained focused on a proposed meeting of oil producers – to formalize some sort of output arrangement to stabilize the crude markets. However, in the wake of Iran insisting it was not ready to accept any output cuts, the debate, if the meeting would eventually take place or not, kept the markets on tenterhooks.

Oil markets thus remained on heels, reacting to virtually every move, in this context. Doubts are now emerging about an earlier reported, March 20 meeting of major Opec and non-Opec oil producers. Reuters, citing sources, said the meeting between Opec and non-Opec producers was unlikely to happen on March 20, as Iran was yet to commit to an oil production freeze regimen. Iran was yet to say whether it would participate in a potential pact to freeze production or not, Reuters reported citing unidentified sources. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Qatar and Venezuela agreed on Feb.16 in Doha they would freeze output if other producers followed suit in an effort to tackle the oversupply.

“Iran is not committing itself to production cuts and that’s helping push the market lower,” Michael Hiley, head of OTC energy trading at New York-based LPS Partners was quoted as saying. “The market’s been hoping that there will be some kind of deal being reached between Opec and non-Opec countries.” The oil-producer confab had been viewed by markets as a crucial step to getting more producers, including Iran, to agree to production cuts.

Kuwait too indicated last week it may not be ready to participate in any such arrangement, unless Iran also joins.

And with Iran not in the tent, not everyone seemed convinced to act. Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group hence was of the view: “If this is a breakdown of the agreement to freeze production it would be a big deal for oil markets because the market had priced in production cuts.” Crude oil prices could fall by $10 per barrel, erasing recent gains, if Opec and non-Opec countries fail to finalize a plan to freeze output levels, Norwegian brokerage DNB Markets predicted on Thursday. “If they can agree on a production freeze I think we have seen a bottom. If they fail, I think the oil price will drop $10 per barrel again,” DNB Markets analyst Torbjoern Kjus told an energy conference in Oslo.

Page 17: New base 806 special 13 march 2016

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Tim Evans, chief market strategist at Long Leaf Trading Group but emphasized “the member nations that are willing to move forward with this plan realize that if Iran does not participate, then the desired outcome won’t be realized and each participating member would lose.”

A meeting of Latin American oil producers originally scheduled to take place in Quito, Ecuador, on Friday has also been reportedly postponed until at least late March or early April, government news agency Andes reported, citing Oil Minister Carlos Pareja. Although, officially, the gathering was delayed because of scheduling difficulties, yet, Pareja said on Wednesday he was seeking regional consensus to cut or freeze oil output.

And demand destruction also continues to weigh considerably on market sentiments. Despite the fact that China imported record crude volumes of 8 million barrels per day (bpd) in February, analysts now expect this figure to fall as the Beijing scales back buys for its strategic reserves, and car sales begin to fall as the sharp economic slowdown starts to show results. Faltering demand in China, where the economy is growing at its slowest pace in a generation, is also causing concerns to the markets. China’s February trade performance was far worse than economists had expected, with exports tumbling the most in over six years.

Goldman Sachs is hence of the view that the current rally is not a long-term phenomenon. There’s been a “premature surge” in commodity prices that is “not sustainable,” Goldman argues in a new report published last Tuesday. In fact, the influential investment bank warns the current oil rally could do more harm than good to future prices.

“Energy needs lower prices to maintain financial stress to finish the rebalancing process,” Goldman commodities head Jeffrey Currie wrote. “Otherwise, an oil rally will prove self-defeating.”

That’s exactly what happened a year ago. Oil prices appeared to have “bottomed” last March at around $43 a barrel. By early May they had surged back above $60 a barrel. Of course, that rally proved to be a head fake – one that only encouraged global oil producers, especially price-sensitive US shale companies, to keep pumping.

The same thing could happen now if the rebound in oil prices allows struggling shale producers to avoid financial stress (like bankruptcy or fire sales) and keep the pumps going.

That would only deepen oil’s huge oversupply problem. Just last week in the midst of the oil rally investors learned that US stockpiles of oil rose by another 3.5 million barrels to nearly 508 million barrels.

“The current oil market is still in a large surplus,” Goldman wrote. “Higher prices are much harder to sustain in a supply-driven market since supply is primed to return with higher prices. But this lesson will likely only be learned through false starts.”

Markets thus continue to be in a state of flux – not out of stress – as yet. Good days are still some distance away!

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Khaled Malallah Al Awadi, Energy Consultant MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA Emarat member since 1990 ASME member since 1995 Hawk Energy member 2010

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Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 25 years of experience in the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility & gas compressor stations . Through the years, he has developed great experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering &

regulating stations and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, & compiling gas transportation, operation & maintenance agreements along with many MOUs for the local authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the UAE and Energy program broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels.

NewBase : For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE

NewBase 13 March 2016 K. Al Awadi

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