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Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
Populations of JerusalemProcesses of Change, 1967-2006
The Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
Dr. Maya Choshen
JIIS
Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
A Unique City
• Jerusalem has many layers,
and different facets of it are interconnected to create a unique city, one of a kind and complicated.
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Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
Tangible and Intangible
• One minute it is a city whose problems are mundane and material,
• the next it is holy and ethereal –
• everything depending on the beholder and his perspective.
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Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
Jerusalem is Israel's largest city in:
• Population– both Jews and Arabs
• Jurisdiction– Twice the size of the 2nd largest city (Tel-Aviv)
• Not the country's major urban area:
Israel's "core" is Metropolitan Tel Aviv
Jerusalem
Beer Sheva
Tel-Aviv - Yafo
Haifa
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Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
Jerusalem Mosaic
The neighborhood structure of Jerusalem and the social and cultural richness of its residents are part of its beauty and character
but are also the source of its complexity and conflicts.
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Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
Jerusalem Mosaic
• National Groups– Israelis– Palestinians
• Religious Groups– Jews
• Secular, Religious, Ultra-Orthodox– Christians– Muslims
• Ways of life– Urban dwellers– Villagers
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Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
Main Population Groups
• There are 3 highly distinct sub-groups in JerusalemJIIS
Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
Distribution of Population in Jerusalem
• Jews: 66%
– Thereof:Ultra Orthodox: 30%(20% of the total population)
• Arabs: 34%
– 95% Muslims
Jewish - "General"
Other Arab
Muslim
Jewish Ultra-
Orthodox
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Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
Socio-Economic Status
• The Arab and the Ultra-Orthodox Jewish neighborhoods are the poorest
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Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
Following the Six-Day War of 1967
• The re-unification of Jerusalem in 1967 brought about change whose influence is significant to this day:
• The status of the city
• The structure of its population
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Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
Demographic Policy
• Demographic goals are sometimes the driving force behind policy for the city
• Since 1967 the big demographic issue in Jerusalem is the question of the proportions of Jews to Arabs
• The aim of government policy is to preserve a Jewish majority in the city
Population in Jerusalem by Population Group, 1967-2006
74% 73% 71% 72% 68% 66%
26% 27% 29% 28% 32% 34%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1967 1972 1983 1990 2000 2006
Perc
ent o
f Jer
usal
em
Res
iden
ts
0
200
400
600
800
1967 1972 1983 1990 2000 2006
ArabsJews
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Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
Demographic competition between the “General”and the Ultra-Orthodox Jewish Population
• The continuing growth of the Ultra-Orthodox concerns the rest of the population:
– The poor, Ultra-Orthodox population does not take full part in shouldering the tax burdens
– Large municipal budgets are allocated to this population
– The “general” population is also worried by the intolerance of the Ultra-Orthodox towards behavior it considers improper. Sources of conflict include:
• Observation of the Shabbat and Jewish holidays
• Non-religious cultural institutions (from theaters to restaurants)
• Allocation of land for sectoral public services
• Inward migration to “general” neighborhoods
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Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
Demographic Trends
• Over the forty years that have passed since 1967 the Arab population has grown at a faster rate than that of the Jewish population.
Population in Jerusalem by Population Group, 1967-2006
74% 73% 71% 72% 68% 66%
26% 27% 29% 28% 32% 34%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1967 1972 1983 1990 2000 2006
Perc
ent o
f Jer
usal
em
Res
iden
ts
Population in Jerusalem by Population Group, 1967-2006
198 230 306 378 449 48169 84122
146209
252
266314
429525
658733
0
200
400
600
800
1967 1972 1983 1990 2000 2006
Thou
sand
s
ArabsJews
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Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
The demographic balance in JerusalemThe Jewish majority is diminishing
19672007
Jews74%66%
Arabs26%34%
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Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
Population Growth 1967–2006
IsraelJerusalem
Jewish140%143%
Arab260%268%
Total156%175%Je
wis
h
Jew
ish
Ara
b
Ara
b
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
Jerusalem Israel
Popu
latio
n G
row
th
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Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
Together with the growth in population, the city’s built-up area has also grown and expanded
2006
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Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
How did the city's population growand reach its current state?
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Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
Sources of Population Growth
• There are three sources of growth that affect changes in population size: – Natural growth (the difference between births and deaths);
– International migration (aliyah);
– Internal migration (between localities within the country).
-10-505
101520
19731975197719791981198319851987198919911993199519971999200120032005
Thou
sand
Res
iden
ts
Natural Increase Immigration Internal Migration
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Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
Birth rates in Jerusalem
0
10
20
30
40
50
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006R
ate
per t
hous
and
Jews Arabs
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Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
Fertility Rate, 2006(Number of children a woman is expected to bear in her lifetime)
Entire Population
All JewsAll ArabsMuslim Arabs
Jerusalem3.93.94.04.1
Israel2.92.73.74.0
Tel Aviv-Yafo2.01.9....
Haifa1.91.9....
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Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
Fertility Rate, Comparisons
• Israel 2.9
• Jerusalem 3.9
• USA 2.1
• Greece 1.4
• Japan 1.2
• Gaza Strip 5.5
• West Bank 4.1
• Jordan 2.5
• Mexico 2.4
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Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
Mortality Rates in JerusalemDecrease due to improvements in
health conditions, health services, and preventative medicine
Death Rate in Jerusalem, 1967-2006
0
2
4
6
8
10
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
Rat
e pe
r tho
usan
d
Jews Arabs
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Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
Age Structure in Jerusalem
20% 10% 0% 10% 20%
0-45-9
10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-84
85+
Age
Gro
up
Share of Population
JewishArab
JIIS
Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
Immigrants to Jerusalem (Jews)
0
4,000
8,000
12,000
16,000
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006Im
mig
rant
s (O
lim)
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Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
Immigration from the former USSR in the 1990’s
The main factors that discouraged immigrants from settling in Jerusalem:
• High cost of housing
• The high rate of employment in the public sector (which usually demanded full command of Hebrew)
Initial Settlement of Immigrants in Jerusalem, 2006-1967
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006Pe
rcen
t of I
mm
igra
nts
to Is
rael
JIIS
Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
Mig
rant
s
incomingoutgoingbalance
Internal Migration to and from Jerusalem (Jewish)
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Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
Migration Movements –Internal migration
• The first decade after reunification: positive migration balance• In the second decade: a low negative migration balance• Since 1988: a higher negative migration balance: Jerusalem has been
losing about 5,000 to 8,000 residents a year
Jerusalem
1990-2006266,100
1990-2006162,200
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Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
Migration Balance by Districts
-60,000
-40,000
-20,000
0
20,000
Jer & W. Bank TA & Central North, South &Haifa
Mig
rant
s
1967-1976 1977-1986 1987-1996 1997-2006
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Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
The Migration of the Arab Population
Ramallah, A-RamRamallah, A-Ram
BethlehemBethlehem
Security FenceSecurity Fence
East
Jer
usal
emEa
st J
erus
alem
JIIS
Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
Population Projection
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
thousands
projection
JEWS
ARABS
196720002020
Jews198,000 (74%)
449,000 (69%)
589,000 (62%)
Arabs69,000(26%)
209,000 (31%)
358,000 (38%)
Total267,000(100%)
658,000(100%)
947,000(100%)
Source: Sergio Della Pergola
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Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
Population projection - trends
200020202035
Jews69%60%50%
Arabs31%40%50%
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Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
Demographic processes reflect the interplay between the characteristics of the population at a given time and economic, social, and political processes in the country in general and a specific city or region in particular.
JIIS
Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
Dr. Maya Choshen
Populations of JerusalemProcesses of Change, 1967-2006
The Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
Thank youThank you
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