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Measuring Market Opportunities
PPT 5Prof. S.Venkat
1. What is market potential and why is it important?
Discussion Question
Market potential is the demand from all actual and potential buyers of a product or product class.
Discussion Question
2. Of the two main approaches for sales forecasting - top-down and bottom-up - which is better?
DEMAND FORECASTING ENTAILS ESTIMATING SALES OF A PRODUCT DURING SOME FUTURE
TIME PERIOD.
• A sales forecast is an estimate or probable sales for one company’s brand of the product during a stated time period in a specific market segment and assuming the use of a predetermined marketing plan.– It is based on a specific marketing plan.– It can be expressed in dollars or product units.– It is best prepared after market potential and sales potential
have been estimated.– It typically covers a 1-year period but may be longer.– Marketing goals and broad strategies must be established
before a sales forecast is made.– Once it is made, it becomes a key controlling factor in all
operational planning throughout the company.
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Two Approaches to Forecasting DemandTop Down Bottom Up
1. Forecast economic conditions
2. Determine market potential
3. Estimate market share
4. Forecast sales
2. Add individual estimates to get total forecast
3. Estimate demand in market segments or from organizational units in the company
THERE ARE TWO BASIC PROCEDURES USED TO FORECAST SALES:
• A “top-down” approach in which management:– Develops a forecast of economic conditions and industry
trends.– Determines the market potential for a product.– Determines the sales potential for the product.– Measures the share of this market the firm is currently
getting or plans to capture.– Forecasts the firm’s sales of the product.
• A “bottom-up” approach in which management:– Generates estimates of future demand from customers or
the company’s salespeople.– Combines the estimates to get a total forecast.– Adjusts the forecast based on managerial insights into the
industry, competition, and general economic trends.
Top-Down/Bottom-Up• Both approaches have merits:• Using both methods concurrently adds
confidence to the forecast, if both methods produce similar results
• If the results of the two approaches differ, useful discussions of the underlying assumptions will be surfaced
• Each process typically has access to different information, and will likely result in different forecasts
Discussion Question
3. What are the advantages and limitations of the various evidence-based forecasting methods?
Statistical methods: advantages -Useful in established firms for established products-Likely to result in a more accurate forecast than other methods under stable market conditions
Statistical methods: limitations-Assumes the future will look very much like the past-Requires history-Not useful for new products with no history
Observation: advantages-Based on what people actually do
Observation: limitations-Observation is typically not possible for new-to-the-world products-Requires prior examples to observe
Surveys: advantages-Many different groups of respondents can be surveyed, from consumers to salespeople to suppliers, etc.
-Does not require history or prior examples
Surveys: limitations-What people say is not always what people do
-The persons being surveyed may not be knowledgeable, but when asked their opinion, they will probably provide it
-What people imagine about a product concept in a survey may not be what is actually delivered once the product is launched
Analogy: advantages-Requires no history nor prior examples
-Best when used for new product forecasting where neither statistical methods nor observations are possible
-Also useful for new-to-the-world high-technology products, for which product prototypes are often either not available or extremely expensive to produce
Analogy: limitations-The proposed new product is never exactly like that to which the analogy is drawn
-Market and competitive conditions may differ considerably from when the analogous product was launched
Judgment: advantages-Those with sufficient forecasting experience in a market they know well may be quite accurate in their intuitive forecasts.
Judgment: limitations-It is often difficult for them to defend their forecasts against those prepared by evidence-based methods when the two differ.
Market tests: advantages-Closest forecasting method to the true market
Market tests: limitations -Expensive to conduct
-For consumer products sold through supermarkets and mass merchants, competitors can buy the data collected through scanners at the checkout and learn the results of the test market without bearing the expense.
-Competitors can deliberately distort market conditions to invalidate the test
Discussion Question
4. How does one go from methods to math?
• Chain ratio method• Brand or category indices
Chain-Ratio Method• What’s the logic behind the chain ratio
method?1.# of households in target market times concept
purchase intent = # of households that will try if aware
2.# of households that will try if aware times awareness adjustment = # of households will try if they find product at their store
3.# of households will try if they find product at their store times distribution adjustment = # who will try the product
Brand/Categories Indices• What’s the logic behind brand or category
indices?• Category Development Indices report the ratio of
consumption in a certain category to population in a defined geographical area.
• Brand Development Indices compare sales for a given brand to population in a defined geographic area
• Commonly used to assess whether a category or brand has above-average or below-average penetration in different geographic markets
Discussion Question
5. Why is looking at adoption and diffusion important?
Ideas for new products or new ventures: How do we know how fast
customers will adopt?
Source: Adapted with permission from Marketing, 11/e, Acetate 8-8, by Michael J. Etzel, Bruce J. Walker, and William J. Stanton. The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. © 1997. All rights reserved.
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ADOPTERS
Early LateYounger Older
Well educated Less educated
Higher income Lower income
Innovators; cosmopolitan Totally local
Higher social status Lower social status
Uses wider variety ofinformation sources andmany media
Limited media exposure;limited reliance on outsidemedia; rely on local peergroups
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WHAT IS ADOPTION AND DIFFUSION?
• Awareness– Individual is exposed to the innovation– Becomes a prospect
• Interest– Prospect is interested enough to seek information
> Adoption Process Stages
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WHAT IS ADOPTION AND DIFFUSION?
• Evaluation– Prospect judges the advantages and disadvantages
of a product and decides whether to try it.• Trial
– Prospect tries the product on limited basis. If possible tries a sample.
> Adoption Process Stages
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WHAT IS ADOPTION AND DIFFUSION?
• Adoption– Prospect decides whether to use the innovation
on a regular basis• Confirmation
– Becomes a user who seeks assurances that the decision to purchase the product is correct.
> Adoption Process Stages
Discussion Question
6. How fast will the adoption curve move for a particular innovation?
Diffusion theory suggests that high penetration levels are rare at the outset. Typically, first-year penetration levels include some but not all of the innovators, i.e., less than 2½ percent will likely adopt in year one.
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CHARACTERISTICS AFFECTING THE ADOPTION RATE
• Relative advantage – the degree to which an innovation is superior to
preceding ideas• Compatibility
– the degree to which an innovation is consistent with the cultural values and experiences of adopters
• Complexity or simplicity – the degree to which an innovation is difficult to
understand or use
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CHARACTERISTICS AFFECTING THE ADOPTION RATE
• Trialability (Divisibility) – the degree to which the new idea may be sampled
on some limited basis. • Observability (Communicability)
– the degree to which the results of using the innovation are observable or communicable to others.
• Risk– the degree to which buyer may lose money or not
get needs met
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CHARACTERISTICS AFFECTING THE ADOPTION RATE
Adoption Rate Relative Advantage
Compatibility
Complexity
Trialability
Observability
Risk
Discussion Question
7. What makes for good forecasting?
What are common pitfalls?
Keys to improve the credibility and accuracy of forecasts of sales and market potential•Make explicit the assumptions on which the forecast is based
•Use multiple methods
Biases in forecasting•Forecasters are subject to anchoring bias
•Capacity constraints are sometimes misinterpreted as forecasts (production or service capacity is not a forecast)
•Incentive pay: bonus plans can cause managers to artificially inflate or deflate forecasts
•Unstated but implicit assumptions can overstate a well-intentioned forecast
Discussion Question
8.Where does the market knowledge come from to help us assess markets and industries, understand buyer behavior, and prepare forecasts?
Four key kinds of systematic market knowledge systems•Internal records•Marketing databases•Competitive intelligence systems•Client contact systems
What are these? Explain
Plus marketing research targeted at particular marketing challenges
Discussion Question
8. What questions should informed users of marketing research ask, before approving a study?
1. What are the research objectives? Will the proposed study meet them?
2. Are the data sources appropriate? Secondary or primary? Qualitative or quantitative?
3. Is the research itself well designed?
4. Are the planned analyses appropriate?
Questions to Ask Before Approving Research